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OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/26/2019 2:35:37 PM   
Rusty1961

 

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https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/

"“The Chinese don’t have to comprehensively defeat the United States militarily in order to achieve their near-term objectives,” David Ochmanek, a senior international and defense researcher at Rand, told me. “If their objective is to overrun Taiwan, that in principle can be accomplished in a finite time period, measured in days to weeks.”"
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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/26/2019 2:42:33 PM   
Anachro


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This severely overestimates the ability of China to quickly overwhelm Taiwan in an amphibious assault.

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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/26/2019 2:54:05 PM   
Macclan5


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I am a little surprised by the quality of this article from the Atlantic. Its a good journalistic publication often with robust analysis.

This seems to be an OpEd piece.

Comments are really insightful

What already gives the Chinese the advantage is geography.

Hmm do you think so ?

...whether the United States would defend its treaty allies in the Pacific, such as Japan, with complaints about the expense. (Davidson said at Aspen that “there is no more important American ally in the world than Japan.”)

Hmmm in regards to the Pacific do you think so ?

U.S.-China war scenarios take place in Asia—it’s not that a Chinese “victory” means the Chinese Communist Party takes over Washington, but that the U.S. can’t successfully eject China from Japanese-claimed territory or Taiwan.

Hmmm is this a surprise ?

I mean did the United States"alone" evict Iraqi forces from Kuwait ? Or did the United States opt for a 'coalition of the willing' that involved Nato and Arab partners ?

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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/26/2019 4:03:22 PM   
Rusty1961

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

This severely overestimates the ability of China to quickly overwhelm Taiwan in an amphibious assault.



How about Chinese airborne dropping on airfields and ports.

Seize a few AFs and then fly in reinforcements.

The reinforcements by sea will then be a mere formality.

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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/26/2019 4:04:43 PM   
Rusty1961

 

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quote:

I mean did the United States"alone" evict Iraqi forces from Kuwait ? Or did the United States opt for a 'coalition of the willing' that involved Nato and Arab partners ?


Agreed. Not sure Japan or AUS wants to risk bombs on their homeland this time around.

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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/26/2019 4:41:14 PM   
Alfred

 

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Just a click bait article.  Comprised of zero analysis but 100% unsubstantiated throwaway lines.  As always, irrespective if it is an economic or social policy, or military assessment, the assumptions made have to be understood.  Here the assumptions have been cherry picked to justify the scare mongering.

1.  Geography benefits China is claimed.  Doh, what would the writer say if the article was on China attacking Catalina Island off Los Angeles.  That geography favoured America then?

2.  There is a difference between military action and conducting a war.  Doh again.  History does not furnish many examples of a war being won without some military defeats along the way.  So any military action taken by China would not necessarily result in a war but if a war did ensue it doesn't follow that America and its allies would surrender just because China had achieved some early tactical victories.

3.  Article refers to French and British ships exercising right of navigation.  No mention of Australian ships doing so. I rather suspect the PLA wouldn't be concerned about Anglo-Franco presence as those nations have no real capability to seriously harm Chinese interests.  But Australia, Singapore and most definitely Japan do.  So the author really didn't consider capabilities.

4.  Bit of a history lesson.  Italy easily captured British Somalia in 1940, as did Germany re the Channel Islands.  Didn't really amount to anything over the long term course of the war.  Closer to home, Japan did rather well up to mid 1942 but that success didn't last.

5.  All predications on an American defeat in war are based on the assumption that America will not tolerate any losses.  That is a rather iffy assumption and relies that the initial strike avoids hitting American assets thereby presenting the American leadership with the option of tolerating the military action and not escalating to war by not responding.  A new Pearl Harbor type military action creates unavoidable American casualties so this iffy assumption is immediately made invalid.

6.  Would China really want to roll the dice that NATO would not get involved.  After all the NATO treaty stipulates that an attack on one member is an attack on all members.  Wouldn't need much of a military response from NATO to cripple China; immediate cut off of all Chinese imports would be sobering.


Of course none of this is canvassed in the article.  Much easier to just produce a click bait article.

Alfred

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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/26/2019 5:34:55 PM   
Rusty1961

 

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The article was predicated on RAND war gaming showing the US loses. I think you should take their findings with something more than a grain of sand.

1. They were correct. Just stating the obvious.

2. Taiwan would be decided within 5 to 7 days. If they attack it is because they know they will have won the fight. You know this. They will attack when there is no doubt of victory.

3. Rights of "navigation" are easily revoked by Surface-to-ship missiles. Notice how reluctant the US and UK are to take on Iran with their SSMs all along the Gulf? The Chinese will do it 10x.

Also, Chinese versions of the S300 and S400 will cover all of Taiwan. Don't take my word for it; look a map.

"With a 400 km (250 mi) coverage range, aircraft in disputed areas off the coast could be targeted by SAMs from the mainland; all of Taiwan would be covered from Fujian, and the Diaoyu Islands would be covered from Shandong, making it difficult for the US and Japan to deploy combat aircraft over those airspaces. Taiwan seeks to address these potential advantages by locating S-400 batteries once activated using extensive SIGINT units and destroying them with stand-off weapons, cruise and ballistic missiles, and anti-radiation missiles.[136]"


How is the US going to come to the rescue of Taiwan when all of Taiwan is covered by S400s? They can't. It's a fantasy that Taiwan will "locate" mobile S400s that will redeploy to caves right after they fire.

China will have complete air supremacy.

4. Yes, Islands are easily captured when the attack has all the advantages. Sounds like you agree with me.

5.You're assuming China will preemptively attack the US in some "Pearl Harbor attack. Not sure it will go down that way. You could be right or you could be wrong. Either way, American moms don't like dead children dying for Taiwan. Speculation on your part.

6.NATO? You're not serious, are you? I didn't know Taiwan was part of NATO. If China attacks Taiwan and the US comes to the aid of Taiwan that doesn't activate the NATO alliance as it is strictly a defensive treaty. Even if NATO does get involved by the time they could get their paltry forces to the other side of the world the war would be over.

Last I check, Germany didn't have any warships above patrol boats active. France? Italy? the UK has only 1 carrier left and I'm sure they don't want to lose it to something as far away as Taiwan.

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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/26/2019 6:33:23 PM   
USSAmerica


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quote:

Even if NATO does get involved by the time they could get their paltry forces to the other side of the world the war would be over.


No war is EVER over until everyone involved decides it is over. The capture of Taiwan might be over in a few weeks, but that means nothing for the war being over.

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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/26/2019 6:47:39 PM   
Jorge_Stanbury


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Capture of Taiwan in a few days??
seriously?

last time I checked, Taiwan has 100K men on arms + many more on reserve, their army's only mission is to defend against China, Can China airlift or sealift 300K men + tanks + equipment? I doubt it

China can't invade, China can launch missiles, but that alone won't defeat Taiwan, unless they are nuclear armed, but then they would face nuclear retaliation

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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/26/2019 6:51:30 PM   
Macclan5


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quote:

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

quote:

Even if NATO does get involved by the time they could get their paltry forces to the other side of the world the war would be over.


No war is EVER over until everyone involved decides it is over. The capture of Taiwan might be over in a few weeks, but that means nothing for the war being over.



Yes correct. Plus 1 USSA

It would be fair to say "the battle is over" ; vis a vis the very germane example of the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait.

It would be difficult the conclude the "war is over".

On NATO capability to deploy ?

Certainly strong land based platforms in South Korea / Japan / Australia - its not about German ships. Deployment would air forces, missiles, drones, etc. in addition to ships.

Certainly as the OpEd piece does presume I would conclude Cyber attacks from China and delaying activity are guaranteed.

Where the article is completely deficient - I would also point out that Economic sanctions on all Chinese Imports / Exports are a guarantee; they would be immediate and sustained. One needs only to read superficially to understand how important Australian Ore / Oil imports are to the Chinese economy.

Sustained 12% unemployment in Western Nations is a deep concern. 12% unemployment in China is a humanitarian crisis / potentially social revolution.



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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/26/2019 7:44:20 PM   
Jorge_Stanbury


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From Stratfor

Amphibious Warfare: The Key to China's Overseas Military Ambitions

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/improving-china-amphibious-warfare-invasion-taiwan?fbclid=IwAR3XobDlA1vPWXjhihxs7UIZDp-gE3wRpK6ZtnDYUUjwE8-IdXjNcjGOpGE


(in reply to Macclan5)
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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/26/2019 7:52:50 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

Capture of Taiwan in a few days??
seriously?

last time I checked, Taiwan has 100K men on arms + many more on reserve, their army's only mission is to defend against China, Can China airlift or sealift 300K men + tanks + equipment? I doubt it

China can't invade, China can launch missiles, but that alone won't defeat Taiwan, unless they are nuclear armed, but then they would face nuclear retaliation


I'm not sure that an airborne / special operations coup de main against the standing government of Taiwan couldn't work. Confuse the domestic politics enough, cordon off the area enough, buy off enough of the opposition, infiltrate some of the Taiwanese leadership perhaps and take out / assassinate critical leadership to instill chaos.

Take a landing area / port and amphibious unload from there. Or fly in light forces to secure a perimeter. Offer 'generous' settlement terms, 'guarantee' the public safety, bribe or kill who you must to reduce the opposition.

I'm not so sure that most of the world would really care or do anything about it. How many nations currently recognize the independent government of Taiwan anyways? How many have been recently bribed / scolded into de-recognizing the legitimacy of the Taiwanese government or changing the name to suit the mainland Chinese? How much advance notice would intelligence provide? How much time would it take for suitable counter-mobilization anyways? I mean other than the United States Navy, who's going to be on the spot in less than a couple weeks? And by then, the effort could likely be decided "locally".

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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/26/2019 10:17:33 PM   
Rusty1961

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Macclan5


quote:

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

quote:

Even if NATO does get involved by the time they could get their paltry forces to the other side of the world the war would be over.


No war is EVER over until everyone involved decides it is over. The capture of Taiwan might be over in a few weeks, but that means nothing for the war being over.



Yes correct. Plus 1 USSA

It would be fair to say "the battle is over" ; vis a vis the very germane example of the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait.

It would be difficult the conclude the "war is over".

On NATO capability to deploy ?

Certainly strong land based platforms in South Korea / Japan / Australia - its not about German ships. Deployment would air forces, missiles, drones, etc. in addition to ships.

Certainly as the OpEd piece does presume I would conclude Cyber attacks from China and delaying activity are guaranteed.

Where the article is completely deficient - I would also point out that Economic sanctions on all Chinese Imports / Exports are a guarantee; they would be immediate and sustained. One needs only to read superficially to understand how important Australian Ore / Oil imports are to the Chinese economy.

Sustained 12% unemployment in Western Nations is a deep concern. 12% unemployment in China is a humanitarian crisis / potentially social revolution.





NATO has no members in the Pacific other than the United States. Given the anemic state of NATO forces and the rather long deployment times to the Pacific I doubt they'll back up the US.

Japan might as would Australia, but they are SEATO, not NATO.

And yeah, if you wake up and turn on the BBC and see China is hitting Taiwan with missiles it's over. The fat lady has sung.

(in reply to Macclan5)
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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/26/2019 10:33:58 PM   
geofflambert


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The President stipulates that Russia, North Korea, the Philippines and Saudi Arabia are our most important allies. I don't see what anyone is arguing about there.

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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/26/2019 10:38:32 PM   
Rusty1961

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

Capture of Taiwan in a few days??
seriously?

last time I checked, Taiwan has 100K men on arms + many more on reserve, their army's only mission is to defend against China, Can China airlift or sealift 300K men + tanks + equipment? I doubt it

China can't invade, China can launch missiles, but that alone won't defeat Taiwan, unless they are nuclear armed, but then they would face nuclear retaliation



The battle, IMHO, would be resolved in about 5 to 7 days, yes. China would be able to do this with air supremacy over Taiwan due to the proximity of Chinese airbases and the S400 and S300 weapon systems. Taiwan's AFs would be pockmarked with Chinese SSMs and any attempt by Japan or the US to come to the aid via the air would be met with massive Chinese CAP and SAMS.

No one believed the US would destroy Iraq's army in 100 hours so think about that.

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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/26/2019 10:38:52 PM   
Rusty1961

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

Capture of Taiwan in a few days??
seriously?

last time I checked, Taiwan has 100K men on arms + many more on reserve, their army's only mission is to defend against China, Can China airlift or sealift 300K men + tanks + equipment? I doubt it

China can't invade, China can launch missiles, but that alone won't defeat Taiwan, unless they are nuclear armed, but then they would face nuclear retaliation


I'm not sure that an airborne / special operations coup de main against the standing government of Taiwan couldn't work. Confuse the domestic politics enough, cordon off the area enough, buy off enough of the opposition, infiltrate some of the Taiwanese leadership perhaps and take out / assassinate critical leadership to instill chaos.

Take a landing area / port and amphibious unload from there. Or fly in light forces to secure a perimeter. Offer 'generous' settlement terms, 'guarantee' the public safety, bribe or kill who you must to reduce the opposition.

I'm not so sure that most of the world would really care or do anything about it. How many nations currently recognize the independent government of Taiwan anyways? How many have been recently bribed / scolded into de-recognizing the legitimacy of the Taiwanese government or changing the name to suit the mainland Chinese? How much advance notice would intelligence provide? How much time would it take for suitable counter-mobilization anyways? I mean other than the United States Navy, who's going to be on the spot in less than a couple weeks? And by then, the effort could likely be decided "locally".



Exactly. Over in a few days.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/26/2019 10:49:56 PM   
Jorge_Stanbury


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

Capture of Taiwan in a few days??
seriously?

last time I checked, Taiwan has 100K men on arms + many more on reserve, their army's only mission is to defend against China, Can China airlift or sealift 300K men + tanks + equipment? I doubt it

China can't invade, China can launch missiles, but that alone won't defeat Taiwan, unless they are nuclear armed, but then they would face nuclear retaliation


I'm not sure that an airborne / special operations coup de main against the standing government of Taiwan couldn't work. Confuse the domestic politics enough, cordon off the area enough, buy off enough of the opposition, infiltrate some of the Taiwanese leadership perhaps and take out / assassinate critical leadership to instill chaos.

Take a landing area / port and amphibious unload from there. Or fly in light forces to secure a perimeter. Offer 'generous' settlement terms, 'guarantee' the public safety, bribe or kill who you must to reduce the opposition.

I'm not so sure that most of the world would really care or do anything about it. How many nations currently recognize the independent government of Taiwan anyways? How many have been recently bribed / scolded into de-recognizing the legitimacy of the Taiwanese government or changing the name to suit the mainland Chinese? How much advance notice would intelligence provide? How much time would it take for suitable counter-mobilization anyways? I mean other than the United States Navy, who's going to be on the spot in less than a couple weeks? And by then, the effort could likely be decided "locally".



I have significant doubts about the capability of mainland China to do this kind of rogue operation against the ROC. If the CIA can't convince a single, troop-commanding general to turncoat against the crumbling, morally and economically bankrupt regime of Maduro in Venezuela, how can China?. You can turn politicians, sure but they don't have troops, without troops you can't do a lot.
I can't see how the Chinese can. I don't know much about ROC politics, or if their armed forced are full of traitors, but I seriously doubt it

< Message edited by Jorge_Stanbury -- 7/27/2019 9:56:34 AM >

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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/26/2019 10:55:41 PM   
geofflambert


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You know, what Rand and Brookings do, at least in part, is give government apparatchiks something to do other than twiddle their thumbs between administrations that fire them and administrations that hire them. And they get paid for it.

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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/26/2019 10:57:50 PM   
tolsdorff

 

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With growing trade, and growing political ties, within 50 years, Taiwan and China will become one again, no need for a war and nothing the international community can do about it. No one will care, as long as this unification does not interfere with the global trade, . The chinese might be run by a dictatorial regime, but it is not a stupid one.

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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/26/2019 11:08:29 PM   
Jorge_Stanbury


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Rusty1961


quote:

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

Capture of Taiwan in a few days??
seriously?

last time I checked, Taiwan has 100K men on arms + many more on reserve, their army's only mission is to defend against China, Can China airlift or sealift 300K men + tanks + equipment? I doubt it

China can't invade, China can launch missiles, but that alone won't defeat Taiwan, unless they are nuclear armed, but then they would face nuclear retaliation



The battle, IMHO, would be resolved in about 5 to 7 days, yes. China would be able to do this with air supremacy over Taiwan due to the proximity of Chinese airbases and the S400 and S300 weapon systems. Taiwan's AFs would be pockmarked with Chinese SSMs and any attempt by Japan or the US to come to the aid via the air would be met with massive Chinese CAP and SAMS.

No one believed the US would destroy Iraq's army in 100 hours so think about that.


1st, because of logistics involved, you can't hide this kind of operations; satellite will pick any strange movement in mainland China. Taiwan will call reserves as soon as they assess Chinese intent. So now you have ~1 million men in arms, in well defended, fortified bases, with plenty anti ship and AA missiles

SSMs showering over Taiwan most likely trigger a US response. A US plane shot by a SAM will definitively
Enter the USN and China simply can't move troop ships on the strait
Even without the USN, Taiwan's navy has enough capabilities to pose a risk to any invading force, would China risk their few capable amphibious ships?

SSMs might degrade, but not eliminate Taiwan's capabilities as most of their AFs are hardened

Even if it succeed in destroying their air force and navy, you still have the army. Was Israel capable of totally destroying Hamas/ Hezbollah, etc with air attacks?

Without US support, it would take at least a few months to conquer it
With US support, the Chinese don't have a chance

(in reply to Rusty1961)
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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/27/2019 12:16:50 AM   
jdsrae


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Only one way to find out for sure, keep breathing and watching the news.
Unless someone wants to whip up a witp 2019 mod in their free time for us to run simulations on it?

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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/27/2019 9:03:16 AM   
fcooke

 

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1961 sure seems to like the 400 system. But it is a mid to high altitude system so nap of the earth missions can still get in.

Have you been to HK or Taiwan? Notice how those folks in HK are dealing with China?

The folks in Taiwan have more water to separate them from the mainland - and will use it. And if you think for a second that the US, SK, and Japan will not step in you are delusional.

And as f'ed up as the US Navy has been in SEA with collisions, they would love snacking on the PLA.

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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/27/2019 2:28:36 PM   
Rusty1961

 

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quote:

SSMs showering over Taiwan most likely trigger a US response. A US plane shot by a SAM will definitively
Enter the USN and China simply can't move troop ships on the strait
Even without the USN, Taiwan's navy has enough capabilities to pose a risk to any invading force, would China risk their few capable amphibious ships?



You mean like when the Iranians shot down our USAF drone a couple of weeks ago? ;->


this isn't 1987 and Reagan's USN could wipe out the Iranian Navy in half-a day.

The SAM umbrella the Chinese would throw over Taiwan would make the Egyptian one over the Suez look like a boy-scout flying a kite. The Israeli's were dumbfounded as to what to do about it.

The USN won't be able to get near the Island either lest they are willing to lose a carrier or two.

And why should they? Taiwan belongs to China much as Catalina belongs to California/America.

(in reply to Jorge_Stanbury)
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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/27/2019 2:31:04 PM   
Rusty1961

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke

1961 sure seems to like the 400 system. But it is a mid to high altitude system so nap of the earth missions can still get in.

Have you been to HK or Taiwan? Notice how those folks in HK are dealing with China?

The folks in Taiwan have more water to separate them from the mainland - and will use it. And if you think for a second that the US, SK, and Japan will not step in you are delusional.

And as f'ed up as the US Navy has been in SEA with collisions, they would love snacking on the PLA.



Hmmmm...not effective against low targets? Russia open-source begs to differ...

"With an active radar homing head, climbs to designated altitude then guidance switches to search & destroy mode.[34]
Effective against low-altitude targets at extremely long range (below the radio horizon).[66]"


(in reply to fcooke)
Post #: 24
RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/27/2019 3:21:40 PM   
fcooke

 

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1961 - I seem to have been baited by you. Russian open source has near zero credibility. You want to keep piling on that?

Oh - I wasn't planning to play this one - but have you ever been to to Taiwan, HK, or PRC? I didn't think so. I have. All three.

I don't know who you are - but please stop dumping on a website that almost always shown civility. You have not.

Best,
Frank

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RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/27/2019 4:27:06 PM   
BBfanboy


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Like many recent conflicts, strength of will has more to do with victory than military hardware. The western powers are just not willing to sacrifice lives and equipment in the same way that Far East dictatorships would. I have no doubt the ROC people would fight hard to remain free, but like the protesters in Tiannamen (sp?) Square, they could be swept away with brutal tactics that are driven by will and lack of concern with world opinion.

The only real pressure the West could sustain on the PRC is economic. Stop trading with them and their people will find the economic gains they have enjoyed turn into a depression. And populations get restless about their governments when they see the good life they had melting away. Such a trade war would also hurt the West, but there is capacity to gear up and start making all the stuff we have been buying cheaply from the Chinese. Here again, we would need the willpower to suffer through economic pain for a while.

Best of all is if the countries of the world stop playing the geopolitical power game and enter into truly mutual-benefit cooperation for all their peoples, but too many leaders still think they have to show a one sided advantage gain to please their people. Zero-sum games always leave one side itching for payback ...

< Message edited by BBfanboy -- 7/27/2019 4:28:36 PM >


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Post #: 26
RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/27/2019 4:35:42 PM   
Rusty1961

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

Capture of Taiwan in a few days??
seriously?

last time I checked, Taiwan has 100K men on arms + many more on reserve, their army's only mission is to defend against China, Can China airlift or sealift 300K men + tanks + equipment? I doubt it

China can't invade, China can launch missiles, but that alone won't defeat Taiwan, unless they are nuclear armed, but then they would face nuclear retaliation



It was a comment by a Senior Rand Official. They tend to have access to data you and I don't have access to.

I'll go with his analysis.

(in reply to Jorge_Stanbury)
Post #: 27
RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/27/2019 4:37:49 PM   
Rusty1961

 

Posts: 968
Joined: 2/4/2010
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke

1961 - I seem to have been baited by you. Russian open source has near zero credibility. You want to keep piling on that?

Oh - I wasn't planning to play this one - but have you ever been to to Taiwan, HK, or PRC? I didn't think so. I have. All three.

I don't know who you are - but please stop dumping on a website that almost always shown civility. You have not.

Best,
Frank


So you trolled this interesting thread with your "baiting".

Is this how you roll? I'm enjoying this discussion-as are others-and you decide to defecate on this thread to prove some point?

It's always so refreshing to illuminate just who the troublemakers are in this forum.

Grow up. No one holds a gun to your head and makes you read my comments.

(in reply to fcooke)
Post #: 28
RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/27/2019 4:39:42 PM   
Rusty1961

 

Posts: 968
Joined: 2/4/2010
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Like many recent conflicts, strength of will has more to do with victory than military hardware. The western powers are just not willing to sacrifice lives and equipment in the same way that Far East dictatorships would. I have no doubt the ROC people would fight hard to remain free, but like the protesters in Tiannamen (sp?) Square, they could be swept away with brutal tactics that are driven by will and lack of concern with world opinion.

The only real pressure the West could sustain on the PRC is economic. Stop trading with them and their people will find the economic gains they have enjoyed turn into a depression. And populations get restless about their governments when they see the good life they had melting away. Such a trade war would also hurt the West, but there is capacity to gear up and start making all the stuff we have been buying cheaply from the Chinese. Here again, we would need the willpower to suffer through economic pain for a while.

Best of all is if the countries of the world stop playing the geopolitical power game and enter into truly mutual-benefit cooperation for all their peoples, but too many leaders still think they have to show a one sided advantage gain to please their people. Zero-sum games always leave one side itching for payback ...



Much of what you say is correct, but by the time the economic sanctions begin to effect China the battle for Taiwan would be over. Like the Rand official says, it would be over in a matter of days.

The West will be quick to close the chapter in that book and kiss and make up.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 29
RE: OT: Rand War games China vs. US in W. Pacific - 7/27/2019 5:42:44 PM   
fcooke

 

Posts: 367
Joined: 6/18/2002
From: Boston, London, Hoboken, now Warwick, NY
Status: offline
1961 - I am a troll? go look at my history - I don't post much.

Oh - and answer the questions - do you get paid for S400 sales?

Have you ever been to the three nations I mentioned?

I am a fully grown male. Quite grown. Only one troll here and it is not me.

And that's right - you have never been to the countries you think will roll over. Oh - but you have a Rand report. Now can I pull out some NYT or Fox articles?

If you were actually born in 61 you have not progressed well.

Actually -If you were born in 2016 you would have an excuse. You don't.

(in reply to Rusty1961)
Post #: 30
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