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RE: Research - Formulas and Changes Explained

 
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RE: Research - Formulas and Changes Explained - 7/19/2019 11:22:54 AM   
PvtBenjamin

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: crispy131313

I think this information is best left under FOW, for numerous reasons such as spoiling a planned Sealion.




Agreed (marginally)

Although it would clear up the research puzzle for many

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RE: Research - Formulas and Changes Explained - 7/19/2019 1:47:08 PM   
crispy131313


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Research information shouldn't be perfect. Wasn't it not until the invasion of the Soviet Union that the Germans were surprised by the Armour of the Soviet's newer Tanks? My point is there should be some element of surprise, in a game which is otherwise numbers.

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RE: Research - Formulas and Changes Explained - 7/19/2019 2:46:03 PM   
Hubert Cater

 

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Thanks guys, this is why we asked and the feedback is helpful. For now we'll put in for games where Fog of War is disabled, and at least this way it can be a guide and ensure that research is unfolding as intended.

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RE: Research - Formulas and Changes Explained - 7/19/2019 2:49:37 PM   
PvtBenjamin

 

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I see your point crispy and agree but think its somewhat on the marginal side.

Most opponent upgrades are apparent, in the case of Sealion I always go on the basis that its going to happen.


Could help tip the scale on whether Sealion is a bluff or real which is a determinant on Egyptian forces. That is a big deal.

Maybe it could be a variable like soft builds etc.





< Message edited by PvtBenjamin -- 7/19/2019 2:50:15 PM >

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RE: Research - Formulas and Changes Explained - 7/20/2019 1:00:58 PM   
Taxman66


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Hubert,

Preuming no bonus and the base range of 3 - 8, is the mean really 5.5 (with equal chances of each value appearing? Or is the formula/random number generation/rounding weighted to 5?

If weighted to 5, how does this work when bonuses increase the high end of the range more than they increase the low end of the range?

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RE: Research - Formulas and Changes Explained - 7/20/2019 1:14:38 PM   
PvtBenjamin

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

Hubert,

Preuming no bonus and the base range of 3 - 8, is the mean really 5.5 (with equal chances of each value appearing? Or is the formula/random number generation/rounding weighted to 5?

If weighted to 5, how does this work when bonuses increase the high end of the range more than they increase the low end of the range?




Glad you re visited this


If its equal weighted its 5 1/2.

If the mean is 5 its a log normal distribution with actually 3,4 occurring more than 6,7,8.

Its also possible 3,4,5,6,7 have the same probability and 8 an extremely small probability. This would be if there were fractions used in the RNG (random number generator) and the range is actually {2 1/2 to 7 1/2} then rounded. For example RNG returns 2.5000 - 3.4999 rounds to 3 but only 7.5000 - 7.5000 returns 8. Thousands of iterations would return a mean very close to 5.

Love to get in the weeds!

< Message edited by PvtBenjamin -- 7/20/2019 1:34:40 PM >

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RE: Research - Formulas and Changes Explained - 7/20/2019 1:42:46 PM   
Taxman66


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I suspect that last option (fractions in the rng) is the most likely. It fits with the formula


< Message edited by Taxman66 -- 7/20/2019 1:56:50 PM >


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RE: Research - Formulas and Changes Explained - 7/20/2019 1:55:00 PM   
Taxman66


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With a +1 bonus then:
(5+1)/2.rounded
(5+1) + (5+1)/2.rounded

Is a 3-9 range where 3 and 9 occur less often (gen number 3.00 - 3.49; 8.50 - 9.00 and other numbers more often e.g. 4: 3.50 - 4.49) and a mean of 6.


With a +2 bonus:
(5+2)/2
(5+2) + (5+2)/2

Is a listed range of 4 - 11, but is really 3.5 - 10.5
With a mean of 7 and tiny chance of getting 11.

This keeps the mean increasing by 1 for each +1 bonus.

< Message edited by Taxman66 -- 7/20/2019 2:04:16 PM >


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RE: Research - Formulas and Changes Explained - 7/20/2019 2:26:18 PM   
PvtBenjamin

 

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Yup that does it


So probably the mean (or very close) determines the distribution starting at [2 1/2 - 7 1/2] then rounded.

Odd numbers have very low chance of highest number, even numbers lower/equal chances of low & high.

Not equal distribution resulting in a higher mean (5 1/2)



< Message edited by PvtBenjamin -- 7/20/2019 2:30:19 PM >

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Post #: 39
RE: Research - Formulas and Changes Explained - 7/29/2019 3:37:04 PM   
Taxman66


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Hubert, I just recently observed a 2% (single chit {base 5, due to low tech level}) gain. This was with a mobilized Russia in July 1942 (and should have a +1 enemy catch up bonus to boot) in a current latest version pbem game.

This doesn't jive with your formula.

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RE: Research - Formulas and Changes Explained - 7/30/2019 12:15:02 PM   
Hubert Cater

 

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There was also one small bug (related to sharing) that I've corrected that will be a part of the next update. Perhaps this applies in your case here?

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RE: Research - Formulas and Changes Explained - 7/30/2019 1:35:46 PM   
Taxman66


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I hope so. Russia still stuck on Infantry Weapons 1 in July 1942 is not a pretty picture.

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RE: Research - Formulas and Changes Explained - 7/30/2019 3:02:00 PM   
Taxman66


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And for the record this was observed in a bbase 1939 Storm game without mods.

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RE: Research - Formulas and Changes Explained - 7/30/2019 9:37:34 PM   
PvtBenjamin

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

Hubert, I just recently observed a 2% (single chit {base 5, due to low tech level}) gain. This was with a mobilized Russia in July 1942 (and should have a +1 enemy catch up bonus to boot) in a current latest version pbem game.

This doesn't jive with your formula.




Hmm 2 1/2 rounded down

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RE: Research - Formulas and Changes Explained - 7/30/2019 9:54:37 PM   
Hubert Cater

 

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Too funny, and no even the current version doesn't round down.

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RE: Research - Formulas and Changes Explained - 7/30/2019 10:31:50 PM   
Taxman66


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Not funny to me.
First Russian investment was Inf Wep. (Though I didn't sell any starting chits)
Immediately reinvested when it completed (early May 1941 iirc). No breakthroughs.
Russian (and US) mobilization stunted by Germany not taking Denmark, Norway or Luxembourg.

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"Part of the $10 million I spent on gambling, part on booze and part on women. The rest I spent foolishly." - George Raft

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RE: Research - Formulas and Changes Explained - 8/26/2019 5:06:08 PM   
The Land

 

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On the whole I'm a fan of these changes, though I do have a reservation about Spying and Intelligence.

Mainly because the Spying and Intelligence bonus is a way to block the 'catch up' mechanic that is otherwise built into the game balance. Germany starts ahead on technology, and the Allies have to invest in it to catch up - fair enough .... but why allow Germany to also invest in Spying and Technology to suppress the speed at which the Allies are able to catch up?

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