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The early fall of Berlin

 
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The early fall of Berlin - 7/7/2019 2:25:12 AM   
Bitburger

 

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Joelmar's pskov thread has got me wondering, and EVK's pointed out that BrianG's Russians were likely to get an early win if the game hadn't ended. It's standard that the Russians suffer ahistorical outcomes, but when the Germans rarely do, they quit. So i ask, have you have taken or lost the city early in pvp and how did it happen? Or is it more like Bigfoot? Everyone's heard of him, but nobody's seen him

< Message edited by Bitburger -- 7/7/2019 2:53:18 AM >
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RE: The early fall of Berlin - 7/7/2019 8:22:28 AM   
No idea

 

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Define early. Unless you let the soviet player take it on puropose, i dont see how it can be achieved before late 44. Assuming equally skilled players

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RE: The early fall of Berlin - 7/7/2019 12:23:04 PM   
Telemecus


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Bitburger will have to tell us what he means by early - but I would say that means 1944. And if you do look at the AARs that went the distance (admittedly not too many recently) then generally Berlin does fall in 1944. Just as Axis often do much better than historically, because they avoid the mistakes they made in real life, so it seems the same mechanism happens when the initiative is going the other way.

I think the most recent AAR that went all the way to Berlin was either M60A3TTS versus Pitaman or SmokinDave versus timmyab - and that was 1944.

< Message edited by Telemecus -- 7/7/2019 12:24:46 PM >

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RE: The early fall of Berlin - 7/7/2019 12:57:06 PM   
BrianG

 

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My first time playing I lost Berlin in 1944. the aar is somewhere deep in the aar reports.


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RE: The early fall of Berlin - 7/7/2019 6:55:16 PM   
Bitburger

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: No idea

Define early. Unless you let the soviet player take it on puropose, i dont see how it can be achieved before late 44. Assuming equally skilled players

I would agree. I had a terrible Barbarossa, but it's mar'45 and still holding out. Pelton said it was a simple matter of Time vs hexes to Berlin. With lower Russian armor mobility and Panzer reserve activations, unless the German looses his Panzer ball in one big encirclement, can it be done with the current patch? Not like i have any illusions about my ability to do it, haha. But with all the balance posts, it seems that the Russians should have an equal chance at an early victory.

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RE: The early fall of Berlin - 7/7/2019 7:41:14 PM   
Zorch

 

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Soviet mistakes in 1941 have immediate consequences (such as loss in 1942); but German mistakes in 1941 aren't fatal until years later.

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RE: The early fall of Berlin - 7/8/2019 10:27:44 PM   
xhoel


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If I may add my 2 cents on the matter: I think that the Soviets can take Berlin early if they do what the Soviets did historically. We need to keep in mind that the summer offensive of 1944 (Bagration) destroyed a whole ARMY GROUP and even then, the Soviets took till May 1945 to take Berlin.

You will be hard pressed to recreate Bagration against a German player of similar skill IMO. So in most cases, the Soviet player is recovering territory but not causing the same damage the Soviets caused historically. However if you do recreate Bagration, the Germans won't hold till May 1945, the game system is too rigid and does not allow for the creation of stopgap units etc. It is the same thing with Stalingrad, if the Soviets can recreate the Stalingrad offensive, a human German player has little chance to stabilize the line and do what the Germans did historically since you simply cannot reform the 6th Army in time etc.

This is made worse by the experience bug. Bitburger remembers that he destroyed 2 German Infantry divisions in the mud of 1941. We are now at the end of July 1942 and those divisions are still at experience 65 even though they have been on R&R forever. They will probably reach exp 70+ at the start of September, that means it takes 1 full year for the Germans to get destroyed formations combat ready again.

I have seen Soviet players take Berlin early though, but in most cases it has been because the German player really shot himself in the foot. The way to either Berlin or Moscow is won by taking POWs and destroying formations.

< Message edited by xhoel -- 7/8/2019 10:29:27 PM >


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RE: The early fall of Berlin - 7/9/2019 1:13:23 AM   
MattFL

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: xhoel
This is made worse by the experience bug. Bitburger remembers that he destroyed 2 German Infantry divisions in the mud of 1941. We are now at the end of July 1942 and those divisions are still at experience 65 even though they have been on R&R forever. They will probably reach exp 70+ at the start of September, that means it takes 1 full year for the Germans to get destroyed formations combat ready again.


It could be worse, they could have been Russian Infantry divisions in which case a year later they would be around EXP 30....we Russians only dream to have units with 65 EXP.... Sounds like the Germans when facing disaster need to do what the Russians have to do when facing disaster. Throw inexperienced units into the line as speed bumps and make the best of it.

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RE: The early fall of Berlin - 7/9/2019 2:47:31 AM   
Bitburger

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

Soviet mistakes in 1941 have immediate consequences (such as loss in 1942); but German mistakes in 1941 aren't fatal until years later.

But maybe now too many years later? I think Xhoel's got the answer, it's the experience bug. Morale used to be the limiter, but Russian Armor takes forever to get experienced and useful now. Same with the artillery divisions. Effects the Russians way more than it does the Germans and the effects are greater felt the longer the game goes on, delaying the turning of the tide. So how does a Russian roll into Berlin early these days, with Cavalry?

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RE: The early fall of Berlin - 7/9/2019 6:31:36 PM   
GoodbyeBluesky

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: xhoel

If I may add my 2 cents on the matter: I think that the Soviets can take Berlin early if they do what the Soviets did historically. We need to keep in mind that the summer offensive of 1944 (Bagration) destroyed a whole ARMY GROUP and even then, the Soviets took till May 1945 to take Berlin.

You will be hard pressed to recreate Bagration against a German player of similar skill IMO. So in most cases, the Soviet player is recovering territory but not causing the same damage the Soviets caused historically. However if you do recreate Bagration, the Germans won't hold till May 1945, the game system is too rigid and does not allow for the creation of stopgap units etc. It is the same thing with Stalingrad, if the Soviets can recreate the Stalingrad offensive, a human German player has little chance to stabilize the line and do what the Germans did historically since you simply cannot reform the 6th Army in time etc.

This is made worse by the experience bug. Bitburger remembers that he destroyed 2 German Infantry divisions in the mud of 1941. We are now at the end of July 1942 and those divisions are still at experience 65 even though they have been on R&R forever. They will probably reach exp 70+ at the start of September, that means it takes 1 full year for the Germans to get destroyed formations combat ready again.

I have seen Soviet players take Berlin early though, but in most cases it has been because the German player really shot himself in the foot. The way to either Berlin or Moscow is won by taking POWs and destroying formations.



I had exactly that happen in my game where I pretty much lost 80-90% of the entire AGS. Due to the severity of the situation I was forced to feed in rebuild units to create a semblance of a Front in the Ukraine. My experience was that yes just leaving them on RnR takes ages but that the best way is to give have them train up to the maximum of national morale and then press them into low intensity combat with more experienced divisions. Once possible I paired them up with reinforcements from the north and counterattacked weaker units (often exposed Tank Corps or Cav corps) which gave them a sort of stored "combat experience" once I pulled them back out of the line their experience gain would often skyrocket for a few turns before I had to redo it.

So, In short at least in my experience it is advisable to even press rebuild units into combat as it seems to speed up their experience gain in the long run.

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RE: The early fall of Berlin - 7/9/2019 6:40:18 PM   
Telemecus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: GoodbyeBluesky
So, In short at least in my experience it is advisable to even press rebuild units into combat as it seems to speed up their experience gain in the long run.


There is a very old post on these forums and as it was based on much older patches its numbers probably do not apply anymore. But its principles still do. It estimated experience/morale gain for different levels. Close to National Morale and four wins would give +1 to morale/xp, higher than national morale and you needed many more wins, less than national morale and much fewer. So the advice for Axis was to stack low XP/morale units with other units for combats you were going to succeed in just to give them wins to accelerate their training.


< Message edited by Telemecus -- 7/9/2019 6:43:32 PM >

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RE: The early fall of Berlin - 7/11/2019 1:35:01 PM   
chegevara

 

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What is earliest achievable date of soviet win agains AI?
Is it possible at all to capture Berlin for example at 1942 or 1943?

I'm running my first GC in WitE, as Soviet Union against AI Axis. Now it's Nov 41, all is going well, Barbarossa has been stopped, all major cities are protected, but I'm wondering how I will counter-attack. Because now I can only make a solid defence, but have no ability to push forward, except against weakest romanian and hungarian units.

Will the blizzard (and vodka) helps me to destroy some of axis forces? Can I advance in 1942?

My air forces are just starting to get in shape, armored forces as tanks brigades are almost useless.
Will the situation change dramatically when rifle and tank corps will be available in 42?, Or I have to be patient and don't overestimate my capabilities?

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RE: The early fall of Berlin - 7/12/2019 6:54:15 PM   
xhoel


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@MattFL: If you are taking 1 year to get destroyed units to 30 Exp you are doing something wrong. I have run tests and as the Soviets it would take you anywhere between 5-8 turns to get your units (45 National Morale) to 22 Exp. This is because as long as experience is half the morale the exp gain is 3 points. Once you reach 22 Exp due to the bug that I mentioned, units only gain 1 point a week when they should be getting 2. So all and all it would take you around 28-30 turns to get a unit at 45 Exp, so around half a year or 6 months. Doing the same thing as the Germans would take you 11-12 months or a full year. So both are off by quite a bit. The bug fix in the next patch (whenever it drops) should take care of this problem.

@Bitburger: German mistakes are still costly in my opinion it just depends on what type of mistake we are talking about. The experience bug does mess things up a lot I agree.

@GoodbyeBluesky: That is a good advice but it is not applicable with the current bug. Under normal conditions combat experience would help the experience gain but the bug prevents it from doing so currently. So right now, no matter how many battles you win, you are still going to gain 1 experience point per turn.

Once it is fixed, this should apply again however so it is good that you mention it!

@Tele: I don't know if the numbers apply in the current state, morale gain especially seems very very random to me. I had had many units get like 8 wins in a turn and still stay at current morale.

@chegevara: That varies depending on what level of help you gave the AI and how you did during the summer of 41. There is a post in the forums right now of a Soviet player who has captured Bucharest in November of 1941.

Look through the AAR and read the player guides. By December you should start building Cavalry Corps (3 Cavalry Divisions make 1 Cavalry Corps). These will be your mobile forces for winter. Once the second week of December starts, German CV should drop a lot due to the blizzard modifiers (see manual) so it will be much easier to counterattack.

The blizzard will help you destroy Axis forces but a lot depends on your planning and execution. You can advance till the end of February. At that point you should start thinking about setting up defensive lines.

Tank Brigades can be formed into Tank Corps in April if I recall correctly. Use Tank Brigades during the Blizzard to get them to Guard status so that you can form Guard Tank Corps in April.

The situation will change but slowly, after all the Red Army did not get reborn in one month (or one year for that matter). Again I advise you to look at the guides, AARs and read the manual, they will help you a lot.

Sorry for the long post, apologies to Bitburger for hijacking the post, just wanted to address the comments.

Cheers!

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RE: The early fall of Berlin - 7/13/2019 5:31:20 PM   
MattFL

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: xhoel

@MattFL: If you are taking 1 year to get destroyed units to 30 Exp you are doing something wrong. I have run tests and as the Soviets it would take you anywhere between 5-8 turns to get your units (45 National Morale) to 22 Exp. This is because as long as experience is half the morale the exp gain is 3 points. Once you reach 22 Exp due to the bug that I mentioned, units only gain 1 point a week when they should be getting 2. So all and all it would take you around 28-30 turns to get a unit at 45 Exp, so around half a year or 6 months. Doing the same thing as the Germans would take you 11-12 months or a full year. So both are off by quite a bit. The bug fix in the next patch (whenever it drops) should take care of this problem.


I wasn't being 100% literal, I was being a bit sarcastic. I have no idea how long it will take because the Soviets don't have the luxury of leaving units on R&R for a year in most cases. My main point is that the Russians are forced to fight with incredibly low EXP units, the GHC shouldn't complain when they are forced to do the same because they had units eliminated that had to be rebuilt. In much of 1941, many front line soviet combat units have EXP in the 20's/30's. Anything in the 40's is Elite for all intents and purposes. In your example, say it's 9 months after your infantry got destroyed and their EXP is only 65. That makes more them combat ready than any unit in the Soviet Army.

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RE: The early fall of Berlin - 7/13/2019 5:54:27 PM   
xhoel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: MattFL

I wasn't being 100% literal, I was being a bit sarcastic. I have no idea how long it will take because the Soviets don't have the luxury of leaving units on R&R for a year in most cases. My main point is that the Russians are forced to fight with incredibly low EXP units, the GHC shouldn't complain when they are forced to do the same because they had units eliminated that had to be rebuilt. In much of 1941, many front line soviet combat units have EXP in the 20's/30's. Anything in the 40's is Elite for all intents and purposes. In your example, say it's 9 months after your infantry got destroyed and their EXP is only 65. That makes more them combat ready than any unit in the Soviet Army.


Must have missed that then.

The Soviets don't have to leave units on R&R for a year since you can bring them up to a level 22 experience in a matter of weeks. So just leave those units that just got rebuild on R&R for 4 weeks and then feed them to the front (to a quiet sector if possible). They will add 1 exp point a week, they don't have to be on R&R neither do they have to be in the rear. That was my whole point. I am not complaining that the Germans are being forced to fight with the low exp units when they get destroyed. I said that the Exp bug affects both sides (the Soviets are affected more in the first part of the war and the Germans are affected more in the later part) and gave 1 example from my game.

Again yes, that infantry division at 65 experience will have more CV than a standard Soviet Rifle division but the point was that it should not take that long for BOTH sides to train units since it is unrealistic and it affect gameplay. Both the Soviets and the Germans should be able to train units faster than they currently do. I hope you don't disagree with that do you?

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