The two Soviet pilots survived, and while I am sure that the fighter losses sting the pilots will soon be in newer, better aircraft than the pre-war fighters they flew in.
I think that the Japanese die rolls have been below average until the previous impulse. That 19 might have changed things. Plenty of Japanese losses in China. And remember, Japan surrendered Manchuria to USSR to focus on China. China could, and should, be in a worse position all things considered, in my humble opinion that is.
And things might indeed balance out in the long game. But my general feeling is that die rolls are more important the earlier in the game that they are. Several high rolls during a France first is not compensated by a bunch of low rolls during the last few turns.
And, I think, there was an argument made in favour for the 2d10 table that it reduced luck. That Axis had such good luck with the 1d10 table that it ended a previous game in 1941. That there was no idea to wait for the luck to turn. I am just bringing this up to say that a concentrated period of luck can decide the game in a few turns. We had, in this game, planned to attack USSR in Mar/Apr in snowy, or fine weather. And we just got rain or storm. And some bad weather the following turn as well, and a fairly short turn as well. Combine that with below average land combat die rolls and one might be in trouble.
Have a bit more patience with newbies. Of course some of them act dumb -- they're often students, for heaven's sake. - Terry Pratchett