From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
8/17/44 to 8/24/44
Battle of Java: Batavia fell more quickly than expected and enemy resistance at Soerabaja was wiped out sooner than I'd figured. So the Allies are rolling in from both ends of Java. The final enemy redoubt, Djoakjarta, shows serious signs of rot. This campaign should conclude within the week.
This Decisive Campaign: Dave had a good mobile reserve, mainly at Singapore. When the Allied threat became serious, he moved quickly to reinforce. He brought in a lot of good units, and ordinarily could've drawn things out for a long time. But he had no real way of knowing a massive Allied army was coming from Ceylon. Within just a week, the campaign went from a taunt contest to decide control of the railroad to a meeting engagement in which one side had seemingly unlimited numbers pouring in. The Allies ended up with more than 9,500 AV. Japan never really had a chance, after those first few days.
Java: The 65-level shipyard at Soerabaja will be key to Allied ops over coming months, at least until (eventually) the Allies take Manila, Singapore and/or Hong Kong. Actually, I don't think Singers will play a big role, because by the time it's taken, the bulk of the Allied forces should be much deeper in enemy territory. Fuel and supplies can come to Java from Capetown, Perth and Colombo, with little risk and excellent efficiency. The island makes a great staging base and the three big ports should facilitate efficient loading for the major amphibious ops that will take place over the next four months or so. And local industry will generate some fuel and supplies. Hey, what's not to like?
Leave Now and Never Come Back: I could probably - right now, this very minute - mount a shoestring, thrown together massive invasion that could strike deep, beyond where Dave is expecting and prepared. It would likely succeed. Nemo would do exactly that. Others would too. On the flip side, this is a good time to re-organize, prep, gather, and upgrade the CVEs and other ships. I'm weighing both options and haven't made a final decision. I'm leaning towards the second, but circumstances may change.