From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
How hard to push and where?
Right now, the key base of Ternate is vacant. There are many Japanese bases vacant or lightly defended to the west, NW and N of Timor. There are major Japanese bases at Soerabaja, Ambon, Kendari, Sorong, maybe Moranado.
When the plan now unfolding/culminating was planned a 9 months back, it envisioned (and had troops prepping for) points from Lunga to Milne Bay to Port Moresby to Merauke to Koepang. The notion was to seek a carrier battle after Merauke by creating a "Fake Herd" bound for the DEI, then suddenly springing DS forward to engage KB. As that plan unfolded, there were modfiications, including the invasions of Rabaul, Manus, Kaeving, etc.
As the plan was being put into affect, units that had been prepping for bases in and near Java concentrated at Perth, including many units from Ceylon. Coinciding with Allied moves into the Arafura Sea and then towards Timor, Allied invasions took place at Port Headland and Broome, both of which have fallen. The units prepped for those places are now prepping for the DEI. And the units prepped for Java and vicinity are aboard ship and moving to Darwin.
I think the Allies can and should move forward. They've repeatedly pierced layers of Japanese MLRs over the past few months. In that regard, Koepang is key. Even if the Allies were to get a bloody nose while moving further forward, Timor gives them a major base inside the MLR. It would be feasible to island hop towards Java, meaning a defeat wouldn't stop me cold. But right now Japan is reeling a bit, the interior is open, and pushing seems desirable.
With that in mind, 3rd Marine Div. (Dili prep at 44%) began loading today and will move forward. There is an APD with an Aussie paratroop detachment at sea, nearing a dot base NE of Timor. I'll take a look at holding it, letting the Marine ships come up, and then sending DS & The Herd to Ternate.
All of that is contingent on things at Koepang being in order, with conquest accomplished or a sure thing, short term.