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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

 
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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/29/2019 3:54:51 PM   
Canoerebel


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I had SigInt of a base force moving to Koepang, so I think the transports were carrying that, but you could be right about there being heavy units aboard.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/29/2019 4:04:49 PM   
Canoerebel


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3/31/44

Timor Sea: A lot going on, some risk-taking involved, and Allied power growing in the Timor Sea region.

Dave has some powerful bases in this region - Koepang, Lautem, Sorong, Kendari - but some of them probably have supply or support unit issues. He also has a host of undefended or weakly defended bases - Dili, Ternate, and many small islands.

Two days from now, the Perth CVE TF will rendezvous with DS near Koepang. If KB hasn't materialized, I'll have the option of greenlighting Koepang invasion. Another possibility is to surprise Dave by ordering a flank-speed move into the Banda Sea, with the intention of a deep landing or three. If successful, such a move would unhinge the entire Japanese MLR.

I'm working on an analysis that might suggest the nonstop action the past few months has penetrated deep enough into Dave's heartland that he isn't well-prepped beyond Timor/Ambon. That creates fun possibilities but should also mean Dave needs to fight to the death here, if necessary.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1052
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/29/2019 5:55:24 PM   
BBfanboy


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I wonder if Dave is waiting for DS to expend more sorties before KB offers combat?

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/29/2019 6:20:23 PM   
Canoerebel


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That could be. To that purpose, he loaded up Koepang with fighters this turn, hoping DS aircraft would sortie against a suddenly hard target. He might be working for any kind of attrition or degradation - subs, mines, perhaps some combat TFs, and perhaps waiting until I stick my head into the noose in the right place at the right time.

A refresher on Dave's conduct might help newer and more casual readers: As DS & The Herd entered the Gulf of Carpentaria, another Allied invasion force approached Port Headland (this was about 10-14 days ago). Dave sortied KB from Soerabaja at flank speed to intercept, then withdrew towards Soerabaja, without engaging, also at flank speed. I figured he was recalling KB and positioning it to intervene with DS & The Herd, which were bearing down on Saumlaki, Taberfane, etc. But KB didn't come forward, didn't engage, didn't oppose those invasions or the subsequent one at Darwin. Nor has it appeared as the Allies approached Timor.

It's important to figure out what Dave's thinking and where KB is. It's vanishing has been surprising and perplexing.




< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 8/29/2019 6:22:54 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/29/2019 7:25:10 PM   
HansBolter


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Could be in Soerabaja repairing the damage from those high speed runs.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/29/2019 7:33:05 PM   
Canoerebel


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Soerabaja is under regular recon, so its not there. He's doing a good job keeping it out of view.

By the way, Hans, I acted on your suggestion and brought an AVD to Saumlaki. Despite those sub-choked waters and my dire predictions it made it. :)

(in reply to HansBolter)
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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 1:58:30 PM   
Canoerebel


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4/1/44

Battle of the Timor Sea: A major carrier battle took place today but I can't post detailed info until Dave sends the next-turn file. He sent the 001 and the Combat Report, so I have a general idea of what happened but lack the detail the next-turn file would give, such as precise ship damage; air losses; locations of the TFs; and where and how ships will retire, if necessary. (Dave is in the third week of a four-week busy spell that has slowed the pace of the game; he may not be able to send the turn until tomorrow.)

A few tidbits: I think this was a Battle of Antietam - significant losses on both sides, no clear-cut winner, one side perhaps better able to hold the battlefield. Both sides suffered major air losses, but Allies losses might prove to be 30% to 50% higher. A quick tally from the Combat Report (which always seriously underreports air losses) shows the Japanese with 175 aircraft destroyed and the Allies with 230 (when the time comes to see the real totals, it'll be cringe-worthy for me). Both sides suffered damage to capital ships but few, if any, are in danger of sinking (except perhaps CV Aso, which took two bombs and must've suffered a catastrophic explosions, as heavy fires/heavy damage is reported). Eight carriers on each side suffered damage; for the IJN six CVs and two CVLs; for the Allies, four USN CVs, one RN CV, two CVL and a CVE. CV Victorious took 1 TT; CV Hornet took 1 TT and 1B; all the other Allied fleet carriers took no more than a single bomb. In addition to CV Aso's heavy damage, Kaga took 3B and Akagi took 2B. CVL Chitose took a TT and 3B and should be in bad shape.

Both sides will probably need to regroup (ship AA will have low ammo, on both sides, and Allied strike aircraft may force retirement to Darwin. The Allies might be in a better position to resume operations in shorter term, as a CV, a CVL, and about 10 CVEs are inbound and a few days to perhaps a week away (and CV Bunker Hill will complete repairs at Townsville in two weeks).

It looks like there may have been some reaction; there's a possibility KB fought from Koepang, a base hex (that would be crazy, as air ops would be halved but Dave would've benefited from LBA CAP); and there's a possibility the two big Allied CV TFs fought from different hexes.

In my game with Obvert, my carriers have usually been configured for defense (due to the threat of enemy LBA and CAP, given all the fighting has been in proximity to the Home Islands). In this game, the only other big carrier battle (Bay of Bengal) caught me in a similar configuration. So it's encouraging to see a more typical carrier battle, with both sides taking damage and no slaughter of the innocents.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 2:18:35 PM   
jwolf

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Looks like Koepang/Ambon is a line in the sand. If you want to go there it will be contested.


Evidently JD was right from 8/27.

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Post #: 1058
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 2:31:28 PM   
BBfanboy


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How are you Koepang with the stress?
Are you feeling Timorous after that clash?
Maybe Saumlaki sub of yours will get a shot at his carriers and make your day!

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Post #: 1059
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 2:50:56 PM   
Canoerebel


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Quick! Someone convene the AE Kangaroo Court. BBfanboy has gone pun bezerk!

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 3:03:04 PM   
USSAmerica


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel



Quick! Someone convene the AE Kangaroo Court. BBfanboy has gone pun bezerk!





_____________________________

Mike

"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

"They need more rum punch" - Me


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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 3:05:21 PM   
USSAmerica


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Dan, if this did end up being an "Antietam of the Timor Sea" that should prove to be a strategic victory for you. You already have CV reinforcements on the way while Dave is just about at the end of the line for any CV reinforcements. I'm looking forward to seeing the detailed report.

_____________________________

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"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

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Artwork by The Amazing Dixie

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 3:13:21 PM   
SuluSea


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/1/44

Battle of the Timor Sea: A major carrier battle took place today but I can't post detailed info until Dave sends the next-turn file. He sent the 001 and the Combat Report, so I have a general idea of what happened but lack the detail the next-turn file would give, such as precise ship damage; air losses; locations of the TFs; and where and how ships will retire, if necessary. (Dave is in the third week of a four-week busy spell that has slowed the pace of the game; he may not be able to send the turn until tomorrow.)

A few tidbits: I think this was a Battle of Antietam - significant losses on both sides, no clear-cut winner, one side perhaps better able to hold the battlefield. Both sides suffered major air losses, but Allies losses might prove to be 30% to 50% higher. A quick tally from the Combat Report (which always seriously underreports air losses) shows the Japanese with 175 aircraft destroyed and the Allies with 230 (when the time comes to see the real totals, it'll be cringe-worthy for me). Both sides suffered damage to capital ships but few, if any, are in danger of sinking (except perhaps CV Aso, which took two bombs and must've suffered a catastrophic explosions, as heavy fires/heavy damage is reported). Eight carriers on each side suffered damage; for the IJN six CVs and two CVLs; for the Allies, four USN CVs, one RN CV, two CVL and a CVE. CV Victorious took 1 TT; CV Hornet took 1 TT and 1B; all the other Allied fleet carriers took no more than a single bomb. In addition to CV Aso's heavy damage, Kaga took 3B and Akagi took 2B. CVL Chitose took a TT and 3B and should be in bad shape.

Both sides will probably need to regroup (ship AA will have low ammo, on both sides, and Allied strike aircraft may force retirement to Darwin. The Allies might be in a better position to resume operations in shorter term, as a CV, a CVL, and about 10 CVEs are inbound and a few days to perhaps a week away (and CV Bunker Hill will complete repairs at Townsville in two weeks).

It looks like there may have been some reaction; there's a possibility KB fought from Koepang, a base hex (that would be crazy, as air ops would be halved but Dave would've benefited from LBA CAP); and there's a possibility the two big Allied CV TFs fought from different hexes.

In my game with Obvert, my carriers have usually been configured for defense (due to the threat of enemy LBA and CAP, given all the fighting has been in proximity to the Home Islands). In this game, the only other big carrier battle (Bay of Bengal) caught me in a similar configuration. So it's encouraging to see a more typical carrier battle, with both sides taking damage and no slaughter of the innocents.


Driven through the Antietam area many times although never visited the battlefield.

Just from reading it looked like the big carrier battle was bubbling and would come soon.

Do you have any 4EB in the area that can pound Koepang, port for damaged ships or airfield?



quote:

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

Dan, if this did end up being an "Antietam of the Timor Sea" that should prove to be a strategic victory for you. You already have CV reinforcements on the way while Dave is just about at the end of the line for any CV reinforcements. I'm looking forward to seeing the detailed report.


This!


Best of luck on results!



< Message edited by SuluSea -- 8/30/2019 3:16:44 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 3:16:16 PM   
SuluSea


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quote:

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

Dan, if this did end up being an "Antietam of the Timor Sea" that should prove to be a strategic victory for you. You already have CV reinforcements on the way while Dave is just about at the end of the line for any CV reinforcements. I'm looking forward to seeing the detailed report.


(in reply to USSAmerica)
Post #: 1064
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 3:40:17 PM   
Canoerebel


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That's why I characterized it as Antietam. Heavy losses to both sides but one side (I think that's me) left holding the battlefield (initiative) and able to carry on soon.

The only airfield I have in range of Koepang is newly acquired Darwin. I'm still bringing in supply and base forces. Koepang is a level 8 airfield, and Dave has good LBA fighters, so I suspect Allied bombing won't be effective.

Any IJN ships not critically damaged should retire to Soerabaja.

The closest major Allied port is 12 hundred zillion miles away (or so it seems, when battling in this theater). Townsville has ARs and ARDs and is useful. Sydney can handle one Essex class at a time. Other than that it's probably Pearl Harbor. I think BB Alabama (2TT) will be most in need of that.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 4:15:45 PM   
RangerJoe


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Or Capetown.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 4:19:50 PM   
Canoerebel


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My arrival at Antietam National Battlefield about 12 years ago was one of the most remarkable historical moments I've experienced.

My family and I had just left Harpers Ferry, where we had lunch and a tour. We drove across the Potomac and into Maryland, bound for the battlefield. We were busy laughing and talking, and I figured at some point we'd see a sign or an entrance or a bunch of touristy buildings as we neared our destination. Instead we just drove through beautiful rural and farm country, topped a rise, and suddenly saw the Dunker Church in the near distance. It was like we had driven from 2003 right into the Brady photo of that church, with battle damage, taken in 1862.

A bunch of our best Civil War battlefields are still rural or semi-rural and lack the horrid development that mars so much of our countryside today. Antietam is a gem (or was, in 2003).

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 4:22:12 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Or Capetown.


Yeah. The port-of-call decisions will be based in part on sub threat. At this moment, the route through the Gulf of Carpentaria and southern Pacific is largely threat-free. If my guys evacuate promptly, they can probably outdistance Dave's subs. The route south, along the Oz coast, is more problematic, as Dave still holds Broome, Derby and Windham and has subs there and his navy nearby.

That's why I wrote of Pearl and didn't mention Capetown. Until I get a chance to see the map, evaluate sub location and ship damage, I'm leaning towards Pearl.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 4:42:21 PM   
JohnDillworth


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These are close waters. Perfect for CA/DD surface action. Japanese TF’s can leave air protected bases, strike, and be back before sunrise. Looks like there were a number of surface combat TF configured for just that. I would not be surprised if these TF show up in the next turn or so. Ambon, Ternate, Makasar...........those are worth fighting for

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 4:54:32 PM   
Uncivil Engineer

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

My arrival at Antietam National Battlefield about 12 years ago was one of the most remarkable historical moments I've experienced.

My family and I had just left Harpers Ferry, where we had lunch and a tour. We drove across the Potomac and into Maryland, bound for the battlefield. We were busy laughing and talking, and I figured at some point we'd see a sign or an entrance or a bunch of touristy buildings as we neared our destination. Instead we just drove through beautiful rural and farm country, topped a rise, and suddenly saw the Dunker Church in the near distance. It was like we had driven from 2003 right into the Brady photo of that church, with battle damage, taken in 1862.

A bunch of our best Civil War battlefields are still rural or semi-rural and lack the horrid development that mars so much of our countryside today. Antietam is a gem (or was, in 2003).


I've visited most of the Army of Northern Virginia battle sites. Antietam is probably the best preserved due to its location. Manassas and Fredericksburg are totally over-developed, although you can still look down from Marye's Heights and get an idea of what the Yanks faced. The sprawl west from Fredericksburg is also now impacting Chancellorsville and Spottsylvania. And, of course, Gettysburg has a McDonald's in the sunken road at the base of Cemetary Ridge. I've never visited anything around Richmond-Petersburg, but I'm sure all that has been developed.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1070
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 4:55:54 PM   
Canoerebel


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You're right. Three USN Fletchers opened the turn patrolling Koepang (the mission was to scatter the merchant shipping know to be there, lest it draw strikes into CAP traps). The DDs sank four Es, expending torpedoes and ammo, and then ran into successive CA/CL/DD TFs. The Fletchers did pretty well. I lost two of them in return for those Es and some hits to most of Dave's combat vessels (one DD taking heavy damage).

So Dave has combat vessels close by.

But the Allies do too. Lots of them. Good ones. It's not much of an exaggeration to say that the Allies haven't lost any BBs or CAs to this point in the war (one slow BB, one fast BB actually, and just a couple of CAs).

One of the first things I'll consider is whether to detach some combat TFs to seek enemy vessels or to bombard the port.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 1071
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 4:57:02 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Uncivil Engineer


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

My arrival at Antietam National Battlefield about 12 years ago was one of the most remarkable historical moments I've experienced.

My family and I had just left Harpers Ferry, where we had lunch and a tour. We drove across the Potomac and into Maryland, bound for the battlefield. We were busy laughing and talking, and I figured at some point we'd see a sign or an entrance or a bunch of touristy buildings as we neared our destination. Instead we just drove through beautiful rural and farm country, topped a rise, and suddenly saw the Dunker Church in the near distance. It was like we had driven from 2003 right into the Brady photo of that church, with battle damage, taken in 1862.

A bunch of our best Civil War battlefields are still rural or semi-rural and lack the horrid development that mars so much of our countryside today. Antietam is a gem (or was, in 2003).


I've visited most of the Army of Northern Virginia battle sites. Antietam is probably the best preserved due to its location. Manassas and Fredericksburg are totally over-developed, although you can still look down from Marye's Heights and get an idea of what the Yanks faced. The sprawl west from Fredericksburg is also now impacting Chancellorsville and Spottsylvania. And, of course, Gettysburg has a McDonald's in the sunken road at the base of Cemetary Ridge. I've never visited anything around Richmond-Petersburg, but I'm sure all that has been developed.



Antietam and Chickamauga are spectacular. Kennesaw Mountain is pretty good. And I suspect Shiloh is excellent, as it's in a mostly rural location.

(in reply to Uncivil Engineer)
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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 5:21:32 PM   
RangerJoe


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Shiloh, where the wounded glowed in the dark. It helped to save some of them as that bacteria helped keep the bad bacteria at bay. But it must have been an eerie sight.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 5:30:03 PM   
Uncivil Engineer

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


quote:

ORIGINAL: Uncivil Engineer


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

My arrival at Antietam National Battlefield about 12 years ago was one of the most remarkable historical moments I've experienced.

My family and I had just left Harpers Ferry, where we had lunch and a tour. We drove across the Potomac and into Maryland, bound for the battlefield. We were busy laughing and talking, and I figured at some point we'd see a sign or an entrance or a bunch of touristy buildings as we neared our destination. Instead we just drove through beautiful rural and farm country, topped a rise, and suddenly saw the Dunker Church in the near distance. It was like we had driven from 2003 right into the Brady photo of that church, with battle damage, taken in 1862.

A bunch of our best Civil War battlefields are still rural or semi-rural and lack the horrid development that mars so much of our countryside today. Antietam is a gem (or was, in 2003).


I've visited most of the Army of Northern Virginia battle sites. Antietam is probably the best preserved due to its location. Manassas and Fredericksburg are totally over-developed, although you can still look down from Marye's Heights and get an idea of what the Yanks faced. The sprawl west from Fredericksburg is also now impacting Chancellorsville and Spottsylvania. And, of course, Gettysburg has a McDonald's in the sunken road at the base of Cemetary Ridge. I've never visited anything around Richmond-Petersburg, but I'm sure all that has been developed.



Antietam and Chickamauga are spectacular. Kennesaw Mountain is pretty good. And I suspect Shiloh is excellent, as it's in a mostly rural location.


Yes, Shiloh is well preserved. There is also a very nice museum at Corinth, not far away.


(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 5:55:50 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

whether to detach some combat TFs to seek enemy vessels


Seek them or not I suspect they will come looking for you. They want to get past the dog and into the hen house. This is not over. BTW......did you figure out where the KB was hiding and which direction it came at from?

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 8/30/2019 5:59:56 PM >


_____________________________

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 6:25:28 PM   
Gridley380


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel



Quick! Someone convene the AE Kangaroo Court. BBfanboy has gone pun bezerk!


I'm sure they will order significant pun-ishment.

Edit to add: I think they should order his arm broken. That'll teach him to be humerus.

< Message edited by Gridley380 -- 8/30/2019 6:26:22 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1076
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 6:28:19 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

whether to detach some combat TFs to seek enemy vessels


Seek them or not I suspect they will come looking for you. They want to get past the dog and into the hen house. This is not over. BTW......did you figure out where the KB was hiding and which direction it came at from?


I still haven't seen the turn file, so I have little info.

I suspect KB was hiding "southwest" (SE, true map) of Soerabaja, in the Indian Ocean. I may be able to glean some info when I run the turn.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 1077
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 6:29:53 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gridley380

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel



Quick! Someone convene the AE Kangaroo Court. BBfanboy has gone pun bezerk!


I'm sure they will order significant pun-ishment.

Edit to add: I think they should order his arm broken. That'll teach him to be humerus.





More Kangaroo Court fodder.

(in reply to Gridley380)
Post #: 1078
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 6:48:14 PM   
Gridley380


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Gridley380

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel



Quick! Someone convene the AE Kangaroo Court. BBfanboy has gone pun bezerk!


I'm sure they will order significant pun-ishment.

Edit to add: I think they should order his arm broken. That'll teach him to be humerus.





More Kangaroo Court fodder.


Ooh, will we be arrested and transported to Australia?

Also, instead of the AE Kangaroo Court, I suggest convening the AM Kangaroo Court. Better at sweeping judgements, and will provide less ammunition for the defendant.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1079
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/30/2019 6:52:50 PM   
Canoerebel


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4/1/44

Battle of Timor Sea, opening rounds: The day opened with four YMS moving from Roti to Koepang to scout for mines. This leads to a running engagement with four E-class ships. During the course of the turn, three of the YMSs are sunk.

Next up is ASW action just south of Timor. This is important work, given the number of damaged ships that will be sailing through this sea by the end of the day. Allied ASW has been doing good work the past few months, and more recently in the Exmouth to Timor sector.

At this early stage in the turn, no sign of KB.




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