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RE: AXIS AAR TURN 10

 
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RE: AXIS AAR TURN 10 - 11/6/2018 3:51:49 PM   
weinsoldner

 

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We mannaged to get a foothold across the Dnepr




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RE: AXIS AAR TURN 10 - 11/6/2018 3:52:45 PM   
weinsoldner

 

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Battle results




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RE: AXIS AAR TURN 10 - 11/6/2018 3:56:58 PM   
weinsoldner

 

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In Southern Ukraine 1St Pzgrp moves east towards Zapo and Dtown, trying to pocket Soviet forces in the process




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Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/6/2018 7:50:40 PM   
thedoctorking


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Connect4 AAR, turn 10

In what is becoming a familiar pattern, this turn none of our worst fears were realized, but Axis forces continued to grind forward in the central and southern sectors.

In the air, our decision after last turn to decrease our interception percentage to 120% apparently paid off. There were few Axis air missions that went in with no fighter escorts; these were city bombing missions far behind the front where the German bombers blew up some insignificant civilian facilities in the Caucasus (bombing manpower centers in small towns without inherent AA guns) and continued bombing of the LaGG-3 factory in Taganrog that raised its damage level to 13%. Otherwise, there were always Axis fighters and mostly also Soviet fighters. Air losses were 595 for us to 174 for them (46 fighters or fighter-bombers), a quite respectable loss ratio for this point in the game. I wonder about those strange strategic bombing missions – perhaps this is a mechanism to increase the morale and experience levels of German bomber squadrons after they got pretty badly knocked about in earlier turns. I did notice that an airbase in the cluster of Axis bases near Nikolaev in the south had three squadrons of He-111’s on it with 40 aircraft each, a sure sign they have just returned from National Reserve. There are also several fighter squadrons now with numbers in the high 30’s, also indicating a good proportion of new replacement pilots. The Germans continued to bomb our airfields, suffering significant losses in the process. They always kill more of our planes than we get of theirs, but with 30 or more total losses through airfield bombing, I think the Axis is wasting their air strength with these attacks. Our air forces are continuing to grow in numbers (up almost 500 air frames this turn) and skill. Our first squadron broke the 80 experience barrier this turn – flying I-16’s!

In the north, our forces pretty much held their positions during the Axis turn. Along the Narva front, the reinforced German XXVI Corps gained one hex against our 8th Army, the last remaining out-of-position Northwest Front army. Aside from that, all of their 18th Army’s attacks in the northern sector were unsuccessful. Apparently, even the mighty Model can’t work his magic against three-deep divisions in fortified positions behind rivers.






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< Message edited by thedoctorking -- 11/6/2018 7:51:14 PM >

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/6/2018 7:52:01 PM   
thedoctorking


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It looks like the Axis have decided to give up on attacking Leningrad this year. Perhaps they never really intended to go this way, as our first northern commander surmised after turn 2. Our northern sector commander is so confident that he hasn’t even put any units into the usual defensive positions around Leningrad (behind the Neva, Shlisselburg, the Volkhov swamps). Instead, he extended the southern end of his defenses eastwards to cover part of the Volga line north of Rzhev, permitting Reserve Front to strengthen its defenses in front of Moscow

We completed the transition of the Narva area to Northern Front from Northwestern, deploying 7th Independent and 23rd Armies to that region and moving 8th from there down to the Shelon River by Lake Ilmen. This gives us a much stronger defense around Narva, with a double line of powerful units in the swamps to the west of the river and behind the river itself on the other side of the Estonian border. Even though there are no German motor/armor units in that area, we still don’t want a breakthrough there while we have powerful forces just north of Pskov.

It is still possible that 4th Panzer Group could change its axis of advance and push north between the Lovat and Pola Rivers towards Lake Ilmen. The Axis have made dramatic changes in direction like this in earlier turns, so I don’t want to discount it, but it looks to me like those guys are headed due east towards Peno and the headwaters of the Volga. We still have a STAVKA Army, 24th, in the front line in that area, which means no air support. German bomber squadrons are at about 50% in that area. The terrain is difficult whichever way they go.

In other news, weather reports suggest that the Central Russia weather zone will experience mud next turn. The Central/Northern weather zone boundary runs just east of the Pola, meaning that in principle there should be no action at all in this theater next turn. Weather reports can be wrong, but this further increases the likelihood that the mobile forces will be moving eastwards towards good weather.





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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/6/2018 7:53:36 PM   
thedoctorking


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In the Valdai Hills/Land Bridge sector, 4th Panzer Group’s armor pushed further east along the Velikie Luki-Torzhok rail line while 3rd Panzer Group expanded its salient northeastwards towards the Volga. They left a three-hex wide gap between them, meaning that the units between the hammer and anvil, so to speak, could slip away easily. Farther to the south, they again refrained from attacking the land bridge proper, instead screening with infantry. Several units in that sector were originally assigned to other armies, from as far away as Romania, suggesting the importance that the Axis assigns to this sector. Their 16th Army massed for an attack against a strong point with two divisions in the hills but were unable to clear it. They also pocketed another two divisions by the base of the salient.

This area is pretty much entirely in the north Russia weather zone, so good weather is expected here.





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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/6/2018 7:54:41 PM   
thedoctorking


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We did counter-attack to open the more southerly of the two pockets. We also attacked on the other side of the salient to choke supply, but otherwise withdrew in this sector. Intel suggested that at least some of the armor in this sector had conducted an HQBU, so we felt that standing on the upper Dvina river line risked a penetration of our position by the substantial infantry force in the region followed by a punishing exploitation by fully-supplied armor. In our new positions, few German infantry will have the movement points to advance and launch deliberate attacks. Our stacks are strong enough that hasty attacks won’t budge them, hopefully. Thus, we hope to have pulled the teeth of another expensive German HQBU.

It’s possible that, with poor weather in effect in the central Russian zone, 4th Panzer Group could still turn back to the north but make their move on the east side of the Valdai Hills. Our northern sector’s 24th Army holds this region, and defenses on the east side of the hills are not very powerful. They are three deep, though, with rivers and rough terrain, making a truly damaging breakout unlikely.





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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/6/2018 7:55:39 PM   
thedoctorking


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In the Gomel-Chernigov sector, 2nd Panzer Group and supporting 4th and 6th Armies continued their push to the east and southeast. The armored forces rescued their pocketed armor regiment and pushed in on the escapees from last turn’s pocket, while not fully reforming the pocket. Sixth Army captured the city of Chernigov but could not cross the river. A stranded division of ours that the Axis neglected to wipe out south of Gomel was in position to move south and displace a German panzer corps HQ.




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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/6/2018 7:56:22 PM   
thedoctorking


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We pushed back both flanks of their breakthrough in this area. It took two attacks to displace the cavalry division to the south. Two divisions from Western Front’s 10th Army had to come to the aid of their Bryansk Front comrades. On the northern flank, 10th Army’s attack against the previously isolated panzer regiment caused it to retreat northeastward – not intentional on my part, just I was lacking a unit that could move into that hex and still make the attack. So I attacked again and this time the panzers routed. Nice to see, but since panzers are supermen in 1941, they still didn’t take many losses routing out of a surrounded position.

Note that once again, a good Soviet general – Vasilievsky – managed to blow his combat roll. General rule: in 1941, make sure that your deliberate attacks show at least 4:1 in CV with the +1 attack advantage if you want to be sure of victory.






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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/6/2018 7:57:07 PM   
thedoctorking


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We displaced the HQ, but unfortunately only across the river where he is still within five hexes of most of his units. Still, I think being displaced inflicts some losses on SU’s and reduces supply stockpiles, so that cut-off guy managed to still do some harm to the enemy.




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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/6/2018 7:58:53 PM   
thedoctorking


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Along the Dnepr from Kiev down to Dnepropetrovsk, German 17th Army made several attacks and only managed to expand their bridgehead by one hex. Our defenses in this area are strong, and without German armor to deliver the big punch, the struggle becomes one of attrition. Even with the nerfed Soviet manpower replenishment in the current version of the game, we can afford to trade soldiers with the Wehrmacht.

One thing we noticed with many of the Axis attacks this turn was that they were frequently conducted with no support units, or with only pioneer support. The Axis supreme commander is Telemecus, who developed the auto-redeploy technique with support units. That’s the way you set all HQ’s to zero support level except for supreme command. Then, support units other than engineers drift up the chain of command for free. But to make this work, you have to redeploy them downwards – also for free – each turn. Perhaps the Axis forgot the redeployment downward part. It is also possible that the Axis are overloading their corps HQ’s, reducing the possibility of leaders making Initiative rolls and sending SU into battle. Pioneers can – often are - deployed directly to German divisions, as are AA, StuG, and Panzerjager SU. We saw those occasionally in battles this turn, but very few artillery SU’s.
We stiffened our defenses in the Kiev-Cherkassy sector and made some attacks to farm Guards. We are hoping to have a good harvest of Guards units as soon as they become available, I believe on turn 13. We put fresh troops into Kiev to further distract German infantry and inflict casualties in street fighting.





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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/6/2018 7:59:32 PM   
Telemecus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking (post 246 this time!)
Several units in that sector were originally assigned to other armies, from as far away as Romania, suggesting the importance that the Axis assigns to this sector.


Are you sure? Which ones?

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/6/2018 7:59:58 PM   
thedoctorking


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In the Dnepropetrovsk-Zaporozhye sector, 1st Panzer Army re-established its pocket of our armored divisions. Three infantry from last turn’s attack force also found themselves encircled. Powerful German air assets supported by Romanian and Italian air units, as well as at least one division transferred from 2nd Panzer Group, give us reason to believe that this is a priority sector for the Axis. However, the powerful armored force is not well-supported by infantry. Axis minor ally units are holding positions that should have German infantry divisions in them, offering us opportunities for counter-attacks.




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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/6/2018 8:00:41 PM   
thedoctorking


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Therefore, we decided to take the offensive here. As we did last turn, Koniev’s 19th Army attacked from the north, Zakharov’s 32nd from the south, and a new formation, Bagramyan’s 37th, a STAVKA army, crossed the river from the east to push two German motorized divisions out of the way. There was no way we could isolate most of the panzer group, but we were able to cut off III Panzer Corps on the north end of the German penetration. We opened the route to our boys and managed to get the armor into a position where, hopefully, the Germans will have to retreat or rout them to safety.

With the weather prediction calling for nice weather south of Zaporozhye, we elected to give up the lower Dnepr line and withdraw to Crimea and the Molochna River line. It was grating to have to give way to a pack of Romanians and Italians, but there is nothing in that area we need and it would be unfortunate if 1st Panzer Group came south across the river and forced those Southern Front armies to retreat into Crimea. We’re expecting a powerful German armored thrust south of the weather line, either due east through or around Zaporozhye or across the river and hooking east.





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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/6/2018 8:01:01 PM   
thedoctorking


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Total ground losses this turn were 28,769 Axis to 123,899 Soviet. Total deployed forces are 5,001,226 Axis (3,412,354 German) to 4,161,660 Soviet. Aircraft deployed are 3,451 Axis (2,452 German) to 6,064 Soviet.

We made one critical error in wrapping up this turn – we forgot to do factory evacuation. I think this has happened to me at least once in every game of this I have played, both as the Soviets and the Axis – at some point, a Soviet player will forget and push end turn. As the Soviets in one-on-one games, I have taken to doing my factory evacuations at the beginning of the turn, deciding how much rail capacity I want to save for troop movement and then just doing it so it doesn’t get forgotten.

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/6/2018 8:14:17 PM   
Telemecus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking
We made one critical error in wrapping up this turn – we forgot to do factory evacuation.


I think everyone has done this - and to some extent this is more a failing of the programme. Anywhere else key things like this would give you at least a pop up saying "are you sure you do not want to use spare rail to evac industry?" I do not think anyone is interested in a game where you get a competitive advantage from being able to create and follow checklists to not forget things like this.


< Message edited by Telemecus -- 11/6/2018 8:15:26 PM >

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/6/2018 8:54:49 PM   
thedoctorking


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Oh, and you'll notice that we were still confused about those divisions in the center that we thought came from 11th Army. I've subsequently fixed up the intel spreadsheet so it's easier to read and harder to make these sorts of mistakes.

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/6/2018 8:58:41 PM   
thedoctorking


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Oh, and in that battle against the 10th Panzer, I don't think Vasilievsky blew his roll. Looks like 1400 elements got disrupted If he'd blown his roll the CV would have been halved exactly, and as it was our CV went down like 40%. Seeing as the Axis had no artillery and no air support, I wonder how this large number of disruptions happened?

< Message edited by thedoctorking -- 11/6/2018 10:13:52 PM >

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/7/2018 6:15:11 AM   
weinsoldner

 

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There has been a lot of discussion about the Axis not using SU's. So we decided to ask an (ex)expert.




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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/8/2018 2:01:36 PM   
xhoel


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Nice going so far. The AAR is a nice read. Can you post the total air and ground losses so far? As well as the destroyed units. Thanks!

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/8/2018 10:45:12 PM   
thedoctorking


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quote:

ORIGINAL: xhoel

Nice going so far. The AAR is a nice read. Can you post the total air and ground losses so far? As well as the destroyed units. Thanks!

Thanks!

As of turn 16, total Axis ground losses are 416,878 (148,563 killed, 3,867 POW, 264,448 disabled) to 2,348,022 Soviet (463,643 killed, 1,115,999 POW, 768,380 disabled). AFV losses are 2,097 to 12,700. Aircraft losses 2,905 to 13,133.
Axis have lost one unit (a Hungarian MOT brigade) and the Soviets have lost 25 Armored divisions, 10 Motorized, 48 Infantry, 14 Cavalry, 8 Mountain, 3 Airborne brigades, 2 Motorized regiments, 11 Artillery regiments, 21 Anti-Air regiments, 1 Engineer regiment, 17 Security regiments, 1 Armored battalion, 101 Anti-air battalions (the ones assigned to cities), 4 Engineer battalions, 1 Construction battalion, 1 Mortar battalion and 37 fortified regions.

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/8/2018 10:48:10 PM   
thedoctorking


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quote:

ORIGINAL: weinsoldner

There has been a lot of discussion about the Axis not using SU's. So we decided to ask an (ex)expert.





I did notice that some of those attacks with no arty occurred in southern and northern sectors. I was wondering if all the arty was assigned to AGC for the big push on Moscow.

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/8/2018 10:56:19 PM   
HardLuckYetAgain


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quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking


quote:

ORIGINAL: weinsoldner

There has been a lot of discussion about the Axis not using SU's. So we decided to ask an (ex)expert.





I did notice that some of those attacks with no arty occurred in southern and northern sectors. I was wondering if all the arty was assigned to AGC for the big push on Moscow.


The units HQ could have moved a specfic distance and the SU’s wont be added to the attack is also another possibility.

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/9/2018 12:47:36 AM   
thedoctorking


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Yeah, hard to tell exactly what's been going on. I've just noticed on several turns that attacks that looked like deliberate, planned assaults by German infantry didn't have any artillery support. I've noticed it in all three sectors though perhaps most notably in North, where we are basically on stable lines with see-saw infantry battles and there's no sign of the normally quite effective German arty. I was hoping to get some sort of explanation of what they thought they were doing.

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/9/2018 12:50:27 AM   
SparkleyTits

 

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I would hazard a guess that most of our commanders are used to locked HQ's and are forgetting to assign SU each battle with it drifting up

I did this myself a lot when I first played 2by3

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/9/2018 10:26:51 PM   
xhoel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking


quote:

ORIGINAL: xhoel

Nice going so far. The AAR is a nice read. Can you post the total air and ground losses so far? As well as the destroyed units. Thanks!

Thanks!

As of turn 16, total Axis ground losses are 416,878 (148,563 killed, 3,867 POW, 264,448 disabled) to 2,348,022 Soviet (463,643 killed, 1,115,999 POW, 768,380 disabled). AFV losses are 2,097 to 12,700. Aircraft losses 2,905 to 13,133.
Axis have lost one unit (a Hungarian MOT brigade) and the Soviets have lost 25 Armored divisions, 10 Motorized, 48 Infantry, 14 Cavalry, 8 Mountain, 3 Airborne brigades, 2 Motorized regiments, 11 Artillery regiments, 21 Anti-Air regiments, 1 Engineer regiment, 17 Security regiments, 1 Armored battalion, 101 Anti-air battalions (the ones assigned to cities), 4 Engineer battalions, 1 Construction battalion, 1 Mortar battalion and 37 fortified regions.


The Soviets are doing quite well for themselves. Thats top notch play right there. 48 Rifle Divisions is a bit on the low side.

_____________________________

AAR WITW: Gotterdammerung 43-45
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4490035
AAR WITE: A Clash of Titans 41-45
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4488465

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Post #: 266
RE: Soviet AAR Turn 10 - 11/11/2018 12:10:50 AM   
thedoctorking


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Yes, I'm feeling pretty good about our position at this point, though dramatic changes are the rule in this game.

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AXIS AAR TURN 11 - 11/14/2018 9:46:02 AM   
weinsoldner

 

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In the North our forces only very slowly move towards Leningrad. German XVI corps only moved 1 hex towards Kingisepp.
Due to Soviet defense it is starting to resemble the trench warfare of the Great war.




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RE: AXIS AAR TURN 11 - 11/14/2018 9:48:03 AM   
weinsoldner

 

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As the previous image shows we are hit with mud from Narva to east of Pskov. Which also hinders our offensive.

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RE: AXIS AAR TURN 11 - 11/14/2018 9:51:37 AM   
weinsoldner

 

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3rd and 4th pz group move east along Velikie Luki hoping to capture Rzhev. But wasn't able to close the gap.
At the same time we must not forget to defend North FBD.




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