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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 9 - 10/31/2018 5:41:51 PM   
thedoctorking


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To the south, 2nd Panzer Group burst out of the swamps and achieved the pocket that we had been fearing. They isolated 33rd and most of 16th Army. There are several unidentified infantry units behind the German front north of Gomel. These may be the 2nd Army units we saw along the front to the north last turn, signaling a significant Axis effort in this sector. Luckily, the pocket was not tightly closed, being held with a thin line of panzer regiments that we could brush aside with ease. Between there and Kiev, 6th Army continued it slow advance through the swamps.






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< Message edited by thedoctorking -- 10/31/2018 5:42:54 PM >

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 9 - 10/31/2018 5:43:53 PM   
thedoctorking


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This attack took place at the junction between Center and South regions’ areas of operation. Thus, Isaac and I had to coordinate our activities. In fact, I took tactical control of the divisions inside the pocket – 33rd Army being in my command and 16th in Isaac’s. What I didn’t get was the information that his attack needed the support of one division from inside the pocket to establish isolation of the forward German armored force. So I used the more effective units inside the pocket in an attack against one of the regiments closing the circle while the other divisions fled through the hole thereby created. So, instead of isolating three divisions, we only got one regiment. Oops. To the north of the breakthrough, 10th Army moved most of its strength south and broke the pocket on their side, while 3rd spread out into blocking positions to the north. Two good divisions remain in the pocket and are probably doomed, while the Germans should have severe supply problems next turn despite not being completely isolated.






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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 9 - 10/31/2018 5:45:24 PM   
thedoctorking


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Along the middle Dnepr from Kiev to Dnepropetrovsk, our defenses were solid. German 17th Army did make a one-hex crossing downriver from Kiev, but without armored support, can’t make it into a major pocketing move.






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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 9 - 10/31/2018 5:46:13 PM   
thedoctorking


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We strengthened our defenses around their crossing and sent powerful reinforcements south where the action was. We managed to resist the temptation of counterattacks against the weak odds and sods that faced us around Cherkassy. Five divisions remain in the city of Kiev, on the logic that the Axis will have to attack them or be ZOC’ed by them as they advance. We have plenty of bombers and transports to keep them supplied even if they do get cut off.




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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 9 - 10/31/2018 5:47:53 PM   
thedoctorking


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And finally, in the southern Ukraine in front of Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye, the mass of 1st Panzer Group’s mobile forces continued their sweep. Three of our armored divisions were surrounded along the Bazavlik River. This attack suffered from a lack of infantry support, however, as the flanks were held by Romanians and Hungarians, along with a scattering of 11th Army units.





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< Message edited by thedoctorking -- 10/31/2018 5:48:19 PM >

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 9 - 10/31/2018 5:49:13 PM   
thedoctorking


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We decided on a very aggressive posture in this region, taking advantage of the relative weakness of German infantry. Bobkin’s 18th Army attacked from the south, while Koniev’s 19th Army pushed across the river from the north. We were able to break into the armored pocket in both cases, despite these fine leaders failing their attack rolls in both cases. We have come to the realization that, if we want to win, we need to bring 3:1 or 4:1 in visible CV in order to achieve a victory, even taking into consideration the +1 attack advantage. These attacks left our attacking units exposed in vulnerable positions, especially at the southern end where most attackers had to cross a major river and move through swamps. The Germans have a bit of firepower in the form of several German infantry divisions and a few mobile units outside the pocket, and so will be able to drive across the river next turn if they wish. There is a large concentration of German air power in the southern region, back behind Nikolaev. There are also three FBD rail repair units working in this area. Both of these circumstances suggest that the Axis hasn’t given up on the idea of a major breakthrough in the south.




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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 9 - 10/31/2018 5:53:48 PM   
thedoctorking


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Total losses this turn were 25,477 Axis to 116,727 for us. Air losses were 151 Axis to 737 Soviet. Their lower air losses reflect our confusion about interception levels. They only lost 54 level bombers. They did lose 36 fighters, above replacement levels. Total deployed manpower is 5,015,748 Axis (3,415,459 German) to 4,122,300 for us. Deployed aircraft are 2,453 German to 5,552 Soviet. All in all, this was an OK turn. They are making steady progress, but, I would say, not quick enough to gain their major objectives before the weather closes in.

By the way, readers: This turn's AAR followed a different format - I covered Axis moves in each sector and then immediately showed our response. Does this make sense to you? Or do you prefer the broad coverage of Axis dispositions followed by a region-by-region discussion of our moves?

I have attached the intel spreadsheet for those interested. As you can see, we are still working out who is in which army, especially in areas like the south where formations are intermingled.

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 9 - 10/31/2018 5:57:17 PM   
thedoctorking


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My sense, though, is that the intel spreadsheet is a valuable resource and totally worth the hour or so each turn it takes to enter the data. In a one-on-one game I'm playing I have been burned several times for big pockets because I wasn't keeping careful track of Axis strength and supply status. In this game, on the other hand, we are generally pretty much right on in our understanding of where the Axis is strong. We are still working on getting a good understanding of how deeply they can strike. Translating supply status into an estimate of how many movement points the unit will have next turn would be a valuable element if I could figure out how to calculate it.

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 9 - 10/31/2018 6:04:51 PM   
Erzac


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quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking

However, more likely is that the fact that we were running at 300% interception level in our air preferences meant that all our fighters ran out of miles. They encouraged this by running a large number of pointless recon missions that, while they only draw up a few fighters, can still wear down our squadrons when there are hundreds of them. When the Axis ran us out of miles.



The reason your fighters stopped flying wasn't due to any recon maneuvers. Instead, I'm very certain the Red Army had it's required to fly percentage set to 50% at the time. All fighter groups in the area were hammered under 50% strength and thus stopped flying. This in turn allowed the unescorted bombing flights.

And that turn also inspired... this:
Skyfall Ostfront

< Message edited by Erzac -- 10/31/2018 6:11:32 PM >

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 9 - 10/31/2018 6:12:49 PM   
thedoctorking


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Half right:




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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 9 - 10/31/2018 6:13:24 PM   
Crackaces


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I think you all have hit the key for a possible Soviet victory. This from a German fanboy perspective. Manpower is at the 5M level, and with a +1 attack I anticipate a good winter offense. So far the Soviets have been staying at the front of the German onslaught. I continue to lurk to get ideas for my Soviet Plays.

_____________________________

"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 9 - 10/31/2018 6:16:41 PM   
Crackaces


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Erzac

quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking

However, more likely is that the fact that we were running at 300% interception level in our air preferences meant that all our fighters ran out of miles. They encouraged this by running a large number of pointless recon missions that, while they only draw up a few fighters, can still wear down our squadrons when there are hundreds of them. When the Axis ran us out of miles.



The reason your fighters stopped flying wasn't due to any recon maneuvers. Instead, I'm very certain the Red Army had it's required to fly percentage set to 50% at the time. All fighter groups in the area were hammered under 50% strength and thus stopped flying. This in turn allowed the unescorted bombing flights.

And that turn also inspired... this:
Skyfall Ostfront


That is exactly what happened in 2x3 turns 3-14. The only thing recon did was to figure out the furthest the fighters had to fly to get the optimum places to sweep (I.r ground bomb missions that were fighter only)

< Message edited by Crackaces -- 10/31/2018 6:17:34 PM >


_____________________________

"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 9 - 10/31/2018 6:18:57 PM   
Erzac


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quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking
Half right:


Indeed the fighter intercept percentage doesn't matter, as the percent required to fly overrides everything. Thus any group that drops below the set percentage won't fly no matter what happens.

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 9 - 10/31/2018 6:19:43 PM   
thedoctorking


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Looking at the "battles" tab of the commander's report for that turn, looks like you did about 360 recon missions. Here's a map of the places you were curious about:





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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 9 - 10/31/2018 6:22:39 PM   
thedoctorking


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Of course, one thing that did happen was that a number of those recon missions resulted in air-to-air victories for our boys. That raises their morale and skill level. So it is a trade-off for you. But you did recon a lot of places where there wasn't any real intelligence to be had.

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 9 - 10/31/2018 6:23:36 PM   
Erzac


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quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking

Looking at the "battles" tab of the commander's report for that turn, looks like you did about 360 recon missions. Here's a map of the places you were curious about:






To me that screenshot is a good example of a thorough, but also very proportionate, recon. There's so much more that could be flown if one was so inclined.

< Message edited by Erzac -- 10/31/2018 6:24:36 PM >

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 9 - 10/31/2018 6:24:28 PM   
thedoctorking


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We have subsequently set % required to fly to 0.
Unclear if this is harming morale and experience growth of our air units.

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 9 - 10/31/2018 6:25:34 PM   
thedoctorking


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Erzac

quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking

Looking at the "battles" tab of the commander's report for that turn, looks like you did about 360 recon missions. Here's a map of the places you were curious about:






To me that screenshot is a good example of a thorough, but also very proportionate, recon. There's so much more that could be flown if one was so inclined.

Middle of Lake Ladoga? North of the Svir in Karelia?
Yaroslavl?

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 9 - 10/31/2018 6:27:56 PM   
Erzac


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quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking
But you did recon a lot of places where there wasn't any real intelligence to be had.


Indeed, and that there is intel as well. I want to have a comprehensive idea of what is happening not just on the frontline and directly behind, but I also want to spot any possible buildups in the rear well in advance.

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 9 - 10/31/2018 6:30:09 PM   
Erzac


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quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking


quote:

ORIGINAL: Erzac

quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking

Looking at the "battles" tab of the commander's report for that turn, looks like you did about 360 recon missions. Here's a map of the places you were curious about:






To me that screenshot is a good example of a thorough, but also very proportionate, recon. There's so much more that could be flown if one was so inclined.

Middle of Lake Ladoga? North of the Svir in Karelia?
Yaroslavl?


The Finnish recon missions were actually escorted with a lot of fighters and were there to enable the Finnish air force to engage, as they don't have any airfields to bomb or sweep. And the places very far in the rear don't have any intercepting fighters anyway, so it really does no "harm", other than providing the intel that there really is nothing there.

< Message edited by Erzac -- 10/31/2018 6:33:26 PM >

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RE: Soviet AAR Turn 9 - 10/31/2018 6:47:46 PM   
Telemecus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking
The Axis team carried out their turn in two days, a record, I believe, for any multi-player game I have been in. At this rate, we will soon catch up with the 2by3+ game! Their enthusiasm for the game makes it a pleasure to play against them.


8MP has had the quickest turns, less than a day for a full four man team. I think one was even in 12 hours.

2by3+ did actually have some quicker turns though when you were there.

I guess it does also show there are quick and slow periods for all games. But let us hope this continues

quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking
However, more likely is that the fact that we were running at 300% interception level in our air preferences meant that all our fighters ran out of miles. They encouraged this by running a large number of pointless recon missions that, while they only draw up a few fighters, can still wear down our squadrons when there are hundreds of them. When the Axis ran us out of miles, they stopped sending fighters on their later bombing missions.


Exactly the same number of interceptors will fly to intercept recon regardless of the percentage interception level. So being on 300% or 5% will make no difference. That is if they are actually flying. You can see this in battle reports - you can see the same number of fighters intercept recon whatever your interception level.

Spam recon can be effective against a few air groups, or for a small margin against many. The impact it had in this case compared to the other causes was tiny.

Fighters did not stop flying because of using up all the miles. I have been trying to find out for certain but I believe there is no absolute number of miles tracked at all during an opponents turn - the program assumes AI only missions (not manual) never fly too much and so there is no milometer on them during the opposition turn.

Fatigue is also not the issue.

About 99% of the reason for the planes not flying was another incorrect air doctrine setting, as mentioned, relative to the state of your airforce. It was a Soviet decision to keep so much of the air force on the ground. The same thing happened for many turns in the 8MP game and was documented in the AARs. You can also test it yourself. If you set out an airforce in the same configuration and air doctrine settings as you had and then look at the turn from the other side you will find much of the Soviet air force will not fly BEFORE the turn has even begun. And the very few that do have such a small margin before they do not that yes then fighter sweeps and even spam recon can soon stop even them flying.

quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking
Of course, one thing that did happen was that a number of those recon missions resulted in air-to-air victories for our boys. That raises their morale and skill level. So it is a trade-off for you.


Exactly the point - long term spam recon is a losing proposition - it is only valuable if it gets over a small hurdle for something bigger - like unescorted, unintercepted daylight bombing.

quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking
But you did recon a lot of places where there wasn't any real intelligence to be had.


I have detailed elsewhere, and for you on discord, the immense amount of information you can pick up from recon. Clearly if you only view it as a means to spot ground units then there was no other real intelligence to be had. I am not air commander here but the screenshot here does look typical if you are trying to keep a turn by turn track of actual units and optimise detection levels for ground interdiction. I also use recon to work out where fighters will and will not intercept and to work out the opponents air doctrine settings. The number of recon missions this takes is multiples of what you need for ground unit spotting. I think actually you have not realised yet all the real intelligence there is to be had and you are missing out on 95% of it!

< Message edited by Telemecus -- 10/31/2018 10:49:45 PM >

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WitE - Skyfall Ostfront - 10/31/2018 7:49:53 PM   
Telemecus


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And to commemorate the turn Goebbels has commissioned another film this time to celebrate our success in the air this turn

Click here for WitE Skyfall - Ostfront by Erzac and Adele!




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< Message edited by Telemecus -- 10/31/2018 8:21:17 PM >

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RE: WitE - Skyfall Ostfront - 10/31/2018 10:08:05 PM   
thedoctorking


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Just to be clear, I don't think what you are doing is wrong or illegitimate. The game gives the Axis what I think is an unrealistically high recon capacity, and you are using it within the rules. Please don't take anything I say as an accusation.

What happened on turn 9 was that we got caught with a poor air doctrine setting. We have since changed the settings, and our air war outcomes have been better.

Looking at turn 15, you ran about half as many recon missions as on turn 9. Some of them were intercepted, but by 4-8 fighters instead of 10-15. Changing the % interception setting appears to have had an impact. We shot down 24 of your recon aircraft. You had some bombing missions where your bombers were unescorted and not intercepted. You also had a couple missions where you sent no fighters and you were intercepted, though. It would be nice if the game would tell us whether the attacks took place at night. The impact of our doctrine settings on experience and fatigue seems to have been minimal: we have about 40 regiments with exp>70 and our highest fatigue regiment at the beginning of our turn was 21. Pretty much consistent with other games I've played.

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AXIS AAR TURN 10 - 11/6/2018 3:34:19 PM   
weinsoldner

 

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In Finland nothing exiting happened. The Finns continue their advance to the South




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RE: AXIS AAR TURN 10 - 11/6/2018 3:37:19 PM   
weinsoldner

 

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Our ground forces in the North gradualy move east towards Narwa. Soviet defense is stiff and we expect the Northern front to become a more static front in the coming turns.




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RE: AXIS AAR TURN 10 - 11/6/2018 3:38:43 PM   
weinsoldner

 

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But at least casualities are till in our favor




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RE: AXIS AAR TURN 10 - 11/6/2018 3:41:38 PM   
weinsoldner

 

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Could this be the Axis battle plan for this turn, as far as the North/Center is concerned?




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RE: AXIS AAR TURN 10 - 11/6/2018 3:44:53 PM   
weinsoldner

 

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North's 4Pz is helping cnetr to move east. 3rd Pz grp continues moving NE in hoping to pocket several Soviet units




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RE: AXIS AAR TURN 10 - 11/6/2018 3:47:33 PM   
weinsoldner

 

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Despite Soviet (counter)attacks we still drive towards Moscow




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RE: AXIS AAR TURN 10 - 11/6/2018 3:50:30 PM   
weinsoldner

 

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Succes in pocketing Soviet forces near Gomel




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