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RE: C4 T006 - 10/26/2018 8:10:06 AM   
xhoel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking

We are big believers in artillery. We have a bunch and we make sure it is available whenever we expect to have to fight. It is surprising that many Axis attacks in this game have gone off with no artillery support. I don't know if it's that they don't have enough units or if their commanders are failing their initiative rolls to commit the SU's to battle. But over and over again, whole German corps will attack, in what are apparently deliberate attacks, and no or very few fire support SU's will be present.



That is the way to go really. The Soviets should use artillery as much as possible. I think they may be having problems with directing their SUs where they are needed because otherwise the Axis have enough artillery to fill their Corps up. In any case entering a battle (either defense or attack) without artillery is not the way to go.

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Post #: 151
RE: C4 T006 - 10/29/2018 2:37:25 AM   
thedoctorking


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Connect 4 Soviet AAR, turn 7

Starting with turn 6, I added German infantry divisions to my intel tracking spreadsheet, making it unreasonably large to be included in an AAR. I have attached the file for those interested in opening the spreadsheet and seeing how much we know about Axis movements. The biggest take-away from this was that we were able to confirm that at least two panzer divisions that had been operating south of the marshes have now rejoined Army Group Center in the land bridge region. This reinforces our assessment that this is now the main focus of the Axis offensive.

German turn 7 was relatively quiet. In the north 4th Panzer Group continued to move into the swamps along the Lovat and Polist rivers south of Lake Ilmen. They may be intending a turning maneuver to get around NW Front’s left, but it is also possible that they are positioning themselves for a move into the Valdai Hills to break through Reserve Front. A relatively light German infantry force is operating in this region, apparently consisting entirely of 18th Army. One large corps has occupied northern Estonia, while the other two push unsuccessfully against our defenses around Pskov.






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Post #: 152
RE: C4 T006 - 10/29/2018 2:38:35 AM   
thedoctorking


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Farther to the south, in the land bridge region, German mechanized forces advanced but did not make any dramatic moves. This suggests again that they are stockpiling fuel and ammo, preparing for some major attacks. Meanwhile, three infantry armies, 16th, 4th, and 9th, are concentrated in the area. My tactical withdrawal on turn 6 allowed significant German infantry forces to cross the Dnepr, where they could make deliberate attacks against my positions in the coming turn, clearing the way for a major exploitation by refueled panzers




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Post #: 153
C4 Turn 7 - 10/29/2018 2:39:58 AM   
thedoctorking


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At the southern end of this sector, and blending into the swamp sector, we find some elements of 9th Army along with infantry that began the game attached to 2nd Panzer Group. Some players increase the infantry component of the Panzer Groups in order to fill them to or even beyond capacity. Most German Panzer Groups consist of two corps of three or four divisions each or about 20 CU, meaning they have room for a couple more infantry divisions. I believe that this is what has happened at least with 2nd PG. It is possible that the forces along the rail line to Gomel all belong to 2nd PG now. This group was unable to cross the Dnepr against resistance from 10th Army in the Gomel region, and crossed the Pripyat farther south near Chernobyl, closing on the Dnepr in that area. They are supported by 6th Army. All German units in the swamp sector have very poor supplies, with a division of 6th Army having a supply path of 78 – almost isolated.




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Post #: 154
RE: C4 Turn 7 - 10/29/2018 2:40:57 AM   
thedoctorking


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On the central Dnepr, 1st Panzer Group continued to press forward against Southwestern Front in the vicinity of Cherkassy. They didn’t move very far because they were isolated at the start of the turn and presumably had little or no fuel. It is possible that the Axis gave them HQBU’s this turn, though I think it more likely that they went to 3rd Panzer Group in the center. A somewhat more vigorous effort to screen their flanks with Axis allied units – Hungarians to the north and Romanian cavalry to the south – means that another cavalry raid is probably not in the cards for this turn. The Axis finally appear to be learning their lesson about unsupported armor spearheads. There is very little German infantry in this area. Elements of 17th and 11th Armies are scattered across the area, but nowhere in sufficient strength to threaten our strongpoints. The fact that I can’t see 2nd Army is disturbing – somewhere, there is an entire German infantry army waiting, no doubt, to spring out and surprise us at the worst moment.




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Post #: 155
RE: C4 Turn 7 - 10/29/2018 2:42:06 AM   
thedoctorking


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At the southern end of the line, the Germans could use some more infantry. The position between the armored spearhead at Cherkassy and the mouth of the Dnepr is held by a reinforced German corps and some Romanian cavalry. Ironically, this is the area with the best Axis supply. Taking advantage of their rapid capture of Odessa, two rail repair units have been working busily along the Black Sea coast (despite some interruptions by our cavalry a couple of turns ago), and their rail head is already up to Nikolaev. Thus, that minimal screen of Axis units in southern Ukraine has the best supply status in the whole army.




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Post #: 156
RE: C4 Turn 7 - 10/29/2018 2:43:03 AM   
thedoctorking


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In the south Ukraine sector, we attempted a counter attack. The goal was to gain some victories for our guys, advancing them towards Guards status, to delay the advancing rail repair by one hex, and to frighten the Germans into committing some more troops to the sector. Only problem is, as has been depressingly common, the attacks were unsuccessful. We were able to retreat to our starting position, where we have good defensive terrain, so I don’t think the consequences will be too severe. But the Soviet attack weakness in the early game has been a major factor. We look at the displayed combat value of our units and think we have a 2:1 or even 3:1 ratio, but when the attack is actually resolved, we are at 1:1.3 or some such. This despite plenty of air support, support units, good generals, and all the advantages. Oh well, historically accurate.






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Post #: 157
RE: C4 Turn 7 - 10/29/2018 2:43:48 AM   
thedoctorking


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On the middle Dnepr, our Southern Front left a screen along the Ingulets and withdrew most of its strength behind the Dnepr from Dnepropetrovsk to Cherkassy. Southwestern Front matched this move, defending mostly behind the river up to Kiev. We are hoping by this maneuver to divert 1st Panzer Group from its intended crossing at Cherkassy in favor of a move downriver towards Dnepropetrovsk. The longer supply line and denser terrain on the lower Dnepr should slow them and keep them away from our factories. In and north of Kiev, we assigned three STAVKA armies to Orel Military District, anticipating next turn’s conversion into Bryansk Front. We withdrew to the central city hex of Kiev, inviting 17th Army to urban combat while removing our best divisions across the river.




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Post #: 158
RE: C4 Turn 7 - 10/29/2018 2:45:12 AM   
thedoctorking


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We continued to delay 2nd Panzer Group in the swamps to the north of the city, while 10th and 33rd Armies of our central sector withdrew behind the Sozh River. Western Front stretched itself in this area a bit, committing more of its strength to the land bridge region to the north. There is a potential breakthrough at the north end of this sector, but with only one motorized unit visible north of Gomel, I judge it unlikely that the Germans will be able to do much damage here next turn.




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Post #: 159
RE: C4 Turn 7 - 10/29/2018 2:46:10 AM   
thedoctorking


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The land bridge region is the most imperiled, in my judgement, at least for the next few turns. German armored reinforcements have turned up here, and the very small movement of 3rd Panzer Group’s divisions suggests an HQBU. The Germans have two potential major envelopments that they could try. The first would be to the south, against 3rd Army behind the Sozh, perhaps with the assistance of 2nd Panzer Group’s northern elements. The second, and more likely in my opinion, is to the north, with 3rd Panzer Group moving up the seam between the upper Dvina and Dnepr rivers while 4th Panzer Group pushes through the swamps and Valdai hills to join with them around the upper Volga. This would be a daring move, not the sort of thing the Axis have been willing to try in this game so far. But if they want to regain momentum, they have to destroy lots of Soviet units pretty soon. This is their best chance right now. I have positioned 20th and 29th Armies to hinder these moves, and spent some of our few AP to replace 20th Army’s commander. I’ve put a good “checkerboard” of reserve units behind the front to slow the advancing panzers, and four strongpoints on both sides of the Dnepr-Dvina gap that hopefully will require deliberate attacks to clear. Panzers that make deliberate attacks don’t generally have a lot of movement points left afterwards. If worst comes to worst, I have Zhukov on the Dnepr near Dorogobuzh to launch a counterattack and hopefully open the pocket.




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Post #: 160
RE: C4 Turn 7 - 10/29/2018 2:47:43 AM   
thedoctorking


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In the north, we strengthened our positions around Pskov at the expense of the Luga line. It is beginning to look like the Germans are going to let us keep Pskov for now. Their commitment in the area consists of one infantry army, the 18th, and one Panzer Group, 4th – which is itself aiming due east now and looking like it is supporting Army Group Center. Our very heavy defenses in this region could easily become attacking forces if the Germans lighten their commitment here further. As on previous turns when Center and North took the offensive to distract German attention from the South, now South and North can distract attention from Center.




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Post #: 161
RE: C4 Turn 7 - 10/29/2018 2:48:53 AM   
thedoctorking


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And finally, in the Finnish sector, a powerful Finnish force is advancing past the north end of Lake Ladoga, while our 7th Independent Army conducts a fighting withdrawal. Every Finn we kill is one step closer to knocking them out of the war, but on the other hand the (very good) 7th Army could be fighting Germans. We are preparing the Svir line with a combination of fortified zones, anti-tank brigades, and NKVD border guard troops. Rather than spending 44 AP to build a line of all fortified units, we are trying to do this on the cheap.




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Post #: 162
RE: C4 Turn 7 - 10/29/2018 2:51:31 AM   
thedoctorking


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Losses this turn were 93,407 for us and 22,185 for the Axis – a relatively quiet turn that saw both of our forces increase. In the air, losses were 393 for us to 191 for them. Axis fighter losses were 32. 51 Axis level bombers were lost in a variety of very aggressive bombing missions against our airfields and cities.

I have attached the tracking spreadsheet for those interested in seeing how we are able to follow Axis units and keep track of their strength and supply status. This is a very important part of our planning process - I do the spreadsheet at the beginning of each turn and we go over it during our planning process.

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Post #: 163
RE: C4 Turn 7 - 10/29/2018 9:27:59 AM   
weinsoldner

 

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You should always try and learn something from your foe(s). And that spreadsheet looks impressive!

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Post #: 164
RE: C4 Turn 7 - 10/29/2018 9:31:50 AM   
SparkleyTits

 

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Big brother is always watching

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RE: C4 Turn 7 - 10/29/2018 1:39:13 PM   
HardLuckYetAgain


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quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking

we are trying to do this on the cheap.




It is 44 AP for 11 hexes on the Svir river. To me that is cheaper than what you are doing IF you need those movable combat units for action on the front line(14 Soviet units I see that could help stop a panzer thrust IMO or be canon fodder for a German encirclement). In many games the Soviet need desperately all units with a ZOC against the Germans. Not to mention that if the Finns attack those "fighting withdraw" units the Soviets are going to need replacements from the loses. This further takes replacements from the main action against the Germans.

But hey at least many will not say you aren't being historical here with the fighting withdraw since some would consider building forts only as gamey. I wrote about this awhile back here http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4094815 but in current game state the Soviets need everything when playing an agressive German. Your game looks to be under control but without a defense in depth for the Soviets on some fronts.

< Message edited by HardLuckYetAgain -- 10/29/2018 1:41:01 PM >


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Post #: 166
RE: C4 Turn 7 - 10/30/2018 3:06:41 AM   
thedoctorking


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I was pushing for the full fort line but they wanted to use the AT gun units. Nobody respects the AT guns.

I used to think they gave an extra MP cost to armored units entering their ZOC's but this is apparently no longer the case. Still, they have a couple dozen heavy AT guns.

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RE: C4 Turn 7 - 10/30/2018 6:33:15 AM   
SparkleyTits

 

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If we needed the units badly or if we did not have +1 I may of advocated the forts but it's important to adapt to each game and I felt this was the best solution to our current situation as the game was seeming like we were going to have a decent amount of bodies if the trend continued and with +1 draining attacks with AT regis weren't as needed

Plus in multi player spending AP on projects like that isn't something I would usually advise as everybody wants AP and there is ALWAYS 10 ways you are being asked to spend it when there is a lot of people on the team

< Message edited by SparkleyTits -- 10/30/2018 6:35:57 AM >

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Post #: 168
RE: C4 Turn 7 - 10/30/2018 9:37:47 AM   
weinsoldner

 

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Connect 4 AXIS AAR, turn 8



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C4 AXIS AAR turn 8 - 10/30/2018 10:05:25 AM   
weinsoldner

 

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In the North the finns advance to the South. NE of Lake Ladoga. Time will tell if the Soviets made the right decission not to fortify themselves at the Svir line.




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RE: C4 AXIS AAR turn 8 - 10/30/2018 10:09:18 AM   
weinsoldner

 

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As expected 18th Army is pushing towards Narwa




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RE: C4 AXIS AAR turn 8 - 10/30/2018 10:11:21 AM   
weinsoldner

 

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Progress is slow because of Soviet defenses. But a hex a day will keep the Soviets at bay.




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RE: C4 AXIS AAR turn 8 - 10/30/2018 10:15:03 AM   
weinsoldner

 

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Glorious Soviet attacks the previous turn at Pskov were succesfully counter attacked.




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RE: C4 AXIS AAR turn 8 - 10/30/2018 10:16:22 AM   
weinsoldner

 

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Numbers speak for themselves




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RE: C4 AXIS AAR turn 8 - 10/30/2018 10:17:59 AM   
weinsoldner

 

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1st Pz Group is still advancing east. Or should I say trying to advance east. Swamps in combination with Soviet defense is working against us.

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RE: C4 AXIS AAR turn 8 - 10/30/2018 10:19:34 AM   
weinsoldner

 

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Axis trying to advance east North of Velikie Luki




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RE: C4 AXIS AAR turn 8 - 10/30/2018 10:22:40 AM   
weinsoldner

 

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In the center we are trying to advance to the North East




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RE: C4 AXIS AAR turn 8 - 10/30/2018 10:24:41 AM   
weinsoldner

 

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Frontlines around the Dnepr




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RE: C4 AXIS AAR turn 8 - 10/30/2018 10:27:02 AM   
weinsoldner

 

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In the South Ukraine sector pushing for Zapo and Dtown




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RE: C4 AXIS AAR turn 8 - 10/30/2018 10:28:15 AM   
weinsoldner

 

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Ground losses this turn




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