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RE: C4 Axis T2

 
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RE: C4 Axis T2 - 9/4/2018 12:46:49 PM   
Telemecus


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Axis Allocations Turn 2

For information only.

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RE: C4 Axis T2 - 9/4/2018 4:54:02 PM   
thedoctorking


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

Axis Air Losses Turn 2

A lot of airgroups withdrawing soon were swapped to older models. And our air commander discovered that air transfering air groups to a base with no movement points left meant they could no longer fly for the rest of this turn. Together with aircraft going to reserve to recover from the exertions of turn 1 this meant a smaller air force for use this turn. Nevertheless our air commander scores a few "jackpots" in bombing airbases to give us the following air losses this turn




Any time we kill 75 of your level bombers, I consider it a victory.

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RE: C4 Axis T2 - 9/4/2018 5:06:15 PM   
Telemecus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking
Any time we kill 75 of your level bombers, I consider it a victory.


When I see 75 level bomber losses, I tell the Axis air commander that is too low - you are not working them hard enough

Our recon losses are also way too low!

< Message edited by Telemecus -- 9/4/2018 5:09:18 PM >

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Post #: 33
RE: C4 Axis T2 - 9/5/2018 4:37:21 AM   
thedoctorking


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Connect 4 AAR
Soviet turn 2
This turn, we collectively showed our inexperience. In part, this was a consequence of communication difficulties between the members of our team and constraints in RL that distracted us from the game. Stewart (thedoctor) was off in Maryland at his mother’s, some time zones away from his teammates. Dade took a vacation week and went to his family’s home in southern Oregon. And Isaac (littlebrother) had a death in the family and plenty of relatives in town for a funeral. Our fearless leader, SparklyTits, is on the other side of the pond and needs to sleep sometimes – evening in Oregon is oh-dark-thirty in Manchester. So, we had advice from Sparkly but were on our own for the execution. Thus, the mistakes made through inexperience. Nonetheless, the overall outcome is still positive for the Motherland, I think. And like those Russian generals in the summer of ’41, we’re learning.
Some comments from Dade open our discussion of the northern front: “Alright Comrade Generals, here is my layman's assessment. Full disclaimer about the folly of underestimating one's foes, but I feel highly confident about our position. We haven't experienced as many losses as I'd expected. Comrade General Callicrate opened the pocket in the south which seems to me to be a disaster for the enemy. As for me, they've basically left me alone. The only pressure I feel is the area south of Pskov, where the enemy seems hell bent for Velikye Luki, his ultimate goal being Moscow. In fact, that's how it appears to me: our enemies are emulating the strategy of Le Grande Empereur. That is, grab Moscow at any cost.
If that is their strategy, I'm well-pleased. Firstly, I have doubts that they'll make there. But secondly, while they are throwing their hammers at Comrade General King ( by the way, Stewart, party members have suggested changing your last name to something a little less ---er --pre-revolutionary), I'll be growing stronger and weightier and I'll be poised just to the north of the jugular, the rail through Smolensk.”





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RE: C4 Axis T2 - 9/5/2018 4:38:43 AM   
thedoctorking


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There is a concentration of German armor north of the direct Riga-Velikiye Luki rail line, and it is possible that he plans to swing north in a surprise move. Those units appear to be all regiments, however, as visible both by the fact that they didn’t convert hexes in their ZOC and the low entrenchment levels that they achieved. They appear to be there to prevent a Soviet counterstroke towards the south rather than to push aggressively north themselves.
Giving credence to a northern strategy is the continued air assault on the port of Osinovets. Two raids of 40+ Ju88’s attacked the city this turn. Mig-3’s of 7 PVO Corps were in the air to meet them, and 8 fascist bombers met their end. The port suffered 5% damage.
No attempt was made to isolate or attack Riga. The units there will be free to move overland towards the main line of resistance and or dig in for a lengthy defense of the city, resupplied by sea as long as we hold Leningrad.
The main German armor in this sector is south of the Sorot/Velikaya river junction, either aiming for an indirect move behind Pskov or to push directly along the Velikiye Luki line. German infantry units have crossed the Dvina upriver from Riga and are also apparently heading for the upper Velikaya line along the road to Velikiye Luki.
Our response to this threat saw the 24th Army brought up from its reserve positions around Rzhev to garrison the Velikaya line south of the Sorot junction. Unfortunately the 22nd Army, originally stationed around Velikiye Luki, was called south for the unsuccessful counterattack in the Vitebsk sector – a problem with crossed signals of communication between North and Central commands. Therefore, Velikiye Luki is currently undefended. If there is a German armored corps somewhere back behind AGN’s lines that did an HQBU last turn, we could well have Germans in there next turn.
Another, less serious, mistake was the organization of the defense of Riga. We left two divisions in there, but did not garrison the hex to the southeast that is the only non river hexside of the city. It is now conceivable that a German infantry corps could move in there with enough MP for a deliberate attack on the city, capturing it next turn. This is not a critical mistake – the units there would retreat or rout and would be very unlikely to be destroyed. Still, an unfortunate tactical error that lessens the chance that we can hold Riga as a fortified outpost in their territory like Odessa to the south.





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RE: C4 Axis T2 - 9/5/2018 4:40:07 AM   
thedoctorking


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The Central region was the site of an unsuccessful counterattack that unfortunately leaves a lot of our best guys vulnerable to a powerful German counterpunch. Since this appears to be the area of main German emphasis, this could be a significant failure. As the turn opened, there appeared to be a major opportunity. A possible panzer corps could be cut off in front of Minsk, and two other panzer corps HQ’s were vulnerable to being displaced, while two panzer divisions were way out front of their buddies and vulnerable, perhaps even to destruction.




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RE: C4 Axis T2 - 9/5/2018 4:41:37 AM   
thedoctorking


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So we proceeded to try to implement this aggressive strategy. Pocketing the units in front of Minsk was easy. They turned out to be regiments, though, meaning that only one division was cut off. A panzer corps remains unaccounted for either in this sector or to the north, leaving open the possibility of an HQBU and a significant pocketing move.
The attack in the Vitebsk region did not go so well. At great expense, Zhukov was transferred to command of 13th Army, and all corps HQ’s under his command were disbanded. The three best 13th Army divisions went into the attack, supported by a ton of SU in the Army HQ. Failure.
The reason for the failed attack is unclear. The on-map reported CV was 16 Soviet to 9 Axis. We are playing with the +1 attack, so this should have ended up well over 2:1. The actual outcome was 1:1.44. I opened up the save game and ran the attack ten times, with ten Soviet successes. I did half of those attacks with the attacking units attached to Rifle Corps HQ’s, which were then subordinated to 13th Army, with no remarkable difference in the final CV. I did a few without Zhukov, with the mediocre original 13th Army commander. None of them were German successes. I can only think that crappy luck, especially lack of air support, was the key.





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RE: C4 Axis T2 - 9/5/2018 4:43:22 AM   
thedoctorking


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Then, some other divisions were brought in, and once again, failure, even more dramatic this time. All the divisions that participated were almost out of movement points, making escape impossible. The army from Velikiye Luki, the 22nd, came down to at least encircle the division in Vitebsk, in the process leaving Velikiye Luki empty, a potentially critical mistake that I attribute to my dismay at the failure to the south. At least 20th Army took a useful rear guard position controlling the crossings of the Dnepr, which will force any German offensive north towards the upper Dvina.
The only thing that might save us in this sector is the fact that last turn’s supply deliveries to the forward German armor were probably pretty minimal, meaning that they won’t have too many movement points. Except, of course, for that corps we couldn’t locate, which might have done an HQBU.





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RE: C4 Axis T2 - 9/5/2018 4:44:44 AM   
thedoctorking


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In the swamp region, the Germans made no effort to cut us off. It would have been a mistake, as suggested last turn, but it also demonstrates their lack of concern about destroying Soviet units. We continued to retreat and extracted a few units via rail to bolster defenses in the land bridge region.




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RE: C4 Axis T2 - 9/5/2018 4:45:54 AM   
thedoctorking


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To the south, once again there appeared to be an opportunity. As anticipated, the Germans made a major sweeping movement to the south, encircling much of the remainder of SW Front. They made no effort to squeeze the pocket to the west. The pocket was held solidly by a line of armor and motorized regiments. Once again, with the +1 attack bonus, we thought we saw an opportunity to break the pocket at both ends and isolate the entire German armored force in Army Group South.




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RE: C4 Axis T2 - 9/5/2018 4:47:12 AM   
thedoctorking


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So, we launched the indicated attacks. The one in the south was successful, breaking the pocket and removing the isolation condition for another turn. That in itself is a victory. Moreover, the attack also displaced a German panzer corps HQ, which should hamper supply to that HQ’s units and slow their response next turn. The northern attack, though, was unsuccessful. Similarly to the attack in the central region, the odds appeared good on the map. The commander in this case was 31st Rifle Corps’ Anton Lopatin, not a stellar commander but not terrible either. He managed to get some air support though no SU were committed to the attack. From a starting odds of 130:58 in our favor, the result of rolls and support reduced the final odds to 29:41. Isaac made a couple of follow-on attacks, both of which were similarly unsuccessful. Again, a number of good units ended up stranded close to Germans who will no doubt encircle and destroy them in the next turn. The German units that we hoped would be isolated are at least in “beachhead” supply status, that is, more than 50 MP from their supply sources, thanks to our tight choke hold on their lines of supply to the north. Hopefully, they won’t be able to do much in the next turn.




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RE: C4 Axis T2 - 9/5/2018 4:48:20 AM   
thedoctorking


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Overall losses this turn were 27424 Axis to 215,400 Soviet. Air losses were 197 Axis to 669 Soviet. Axis air losses included 71 fighters/fighter-bombers. Of our losses, 126 were I-153’s and 191 were SB-2’s. These are good numbers for us. Ground losses are going to mount as they will ultimately destroy all those units in the turn 1 pockets. I was unable to reopen the western Belarus pocket, so a couple hundred thousand guys in there will probably surrender next turn or turn after. The guys in the western Ukraine pocket, plus the units that attempted to rescue them this turn, are all doomed. Destroying them will take the Axis infantry at least two or three turns, though, meaning that they won’t confront our main line of resistance forces until turn 5 at the earliest.
I remain optimistic about our prospects in this game. I recommend that the Politburo start getting surviving German, French, and Italian communists out of the Gulags and training them for their future role as proconsuls in the Soviet Union of Eurasia.

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RE: C4 Axis T2 - 9/5/2018 12:07:09 PM   
SparkleyTits

 

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Some unfortunate rolls for us this turn as dislodging the panzer corp in AGC and isolated most of AGS panzer force would of been very nice but all in all not the decisive blow either side was aiming for this turn so will have to see what develops

I would also like to say I am very proud of the commanders willigness to step out of their comfort zones by trying out more aggresively minded Soviet tactics I am fond of
Great stuff comrades and enemies alike, keep it up!

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RE: C4 Axis T2 - 9/6/2018 4:18:33 AM   
thedoctorking


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Yeah, man, we came here to fight! Nobody is planning to run to the Urals.

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RE: C4 Sov T2 - 9/6/2018 2:52:23 PM   
Telemecus


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Soviet Turn 2
With the Soviet ground commanders all based in the United States and the turn arriving with them on the 4th of July the war must await the end of their celebrations for Rebellious Sedition Day.

(The attached is a picture for the post on turn 3 centre)

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< Message edited by Telemecus -- 9/6/2018 3:44:15 PM >

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C4 T003 - 9/6/2018 2:53:28 PM   
Telemecus


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Axis North Turn 3

Turn 3 finds the small pocket on the Malta river intact and soon dispatched. 4th Panzer Group heads on towards Pskow and Leningrad.

quote:

Neogodhobo
And I should have listen to you guys when you told me not to seperate my fast division. Complete waste of time. But now I know for myself haha



quote:

Joneleth
Riga has turned into a fortress 89 def cv


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< Message edited by Telemecus -- 9/6/2018 2:54:50 PM >

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RE: C4 T003 - 9/6/2018 4:05:33 PM   
Telemecus


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Axis Centre Turn 3

quote:

Searry
I knew vitbesk would mean something ... it means zhukov in the middle

Turn 3 arrives back from the Soviet team with the Bialystock pocket intact, but still marauding our rail lines, and the motorised near Minsk isolated. Our vanguard at Vitebsk however has been trapped behind enemy lines.


quote:

Searry
they did not evacuate minsk or mogilev
I wonder why the strong forward defense

By the end of turn 3 we have reconnected our units including those trapped at Vitbesk and reestablished the Minsk pocket


quote:

Searry
lehr's job was to break the rails ... too bad if it gets routed...it's just a brigade so no big deal

quote:

Searry
Yeah it's a difficult decision to think what to do either hqbu for fuel or try to pocket something now
though with this amount of fuel(low) it is hard to pocket anything

Centre takes the plunge - and goes for an HQBU!

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< Message edited by Telemecus -- 9/6/2018 4:32:51 PM >

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RE: C4 T003 - 9/6/2018 8:30:09 PM   
Telemecus


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Axis South Turn 3 Start

quote:

Joneleth
worse thing is it was chain broken





quote:

Joneleth
my MP rolls are annoying... theres like 4 instances of 2 out of 3 regiments aces their rolls and the last one failed all so its like 40 40 10 MP so if i merged them the division wont have any MP


quote:

Joneleth
some good news ...if you look at the soft counters, several of the soviet units brought to break my pocket is +50 morale +50 experience infantry, those will be a huge loss to the soviets


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RE: C4 T003 - 9/6/2018 8:38:10 PM   
thedoctorking


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quote:


Centre takes the plunge - and goes for an HQBU!


Who exactly got the HQBU? Both panzer corps?

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RE: C4 T003 - 9/6/2018 8:40:50 PM   
thedoctorking


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

Axis Centre Turn 3

quote:

Searry
they did not evacuate minsk or mogilev
I wonder why the strong forward defense

By the end of turn 3 we have reconnected our units including those trapped at Vitbesk and reestablished the Minsk pocket




Like I said, we came here to fight!

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RE: C4 T003 - 9/6/2018 8:56:10 PM   
Telemecus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking


quote:


Centre takes the plunge - and goes for an HQBU!


Who exactly got the HQBU? Both panzer corps?


A Panzer Group even!

(The attached picture is for use in the next post on turn 3 for south)

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< Message edited by Telemecus -- 9/8/2018 9:35:03 PM >

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RE: C4 T003 - 9/8/2018 9:04:11 PM   
Telemecus


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Axis South Turn 3
quote:

Joneleth
some good news on my front if you look at the soft counters, several of the soviet units brought to break my pocket is +50 morale +50 experience infantry, those will be a huge loss to the soviets...considering the amount of forces i trapped in ukraine and how many he still has outside im suspecting the south is recieving the bulk of reinforcements

quote:

Joneleth
theres no chance of me taking odessa this turn btw ... there might be a chance next turn ...othervise i expect to take it at turn 5 at the latest
but i can take ochakov this turn

At the end of the turn suggestions are asked for, some are not used
quote:


quote:

Telemecus
some HQs are vulnerable to displacement

Joneleth
i know but othervise it wont supply all forces, so i consider it a trade off if they move units that close

and some are


Given that the pocket has already been broken once my own view, not shared by many others, is there is little urgency in keeping the pockets sealed - they will die sometime anyway. But there is an absolute need to keep your supply lines and infrastructure protected and your own forces not isolated.

quote:

Joneleth
how they react in T3 will change alot of things in our strategy
if he keeps his checkerboard outside kiev then i cant zov block kiev, but he will have less forces guarding the east



This time the pockets are held by an area of ZOCs rather than a continuous line of regiments.

Centre wants to know when they will be getting back the two corps of 2nd Panzer Group in the south.
quote:

quote:

Searry
how am I getting back my troops?

Joneleth
either rail them back through romania after odessa is taken or we meet in middle in a couple of turns

South sets out their future prospects
quote:

Joneleth
with 2 outer defences penetrated at odessa i also feel confident in taking it next turn
next turn hopefully my pockets wont have been broken, so i will capture odessa, clean up the pockets, if any resources left ill pocket a few frontliners, and then talk to searry regarding his forces when how and if he wants them back


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< Message edited by Telemecus -- 9/8/2018 9:14:24 PM >

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RE: C4 T003 - 9/9/2018 4:05:11 PM   
Telemecus


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Axis Air Turn 3

quote:

Searry
looks like soviet interception is up more planes flying - soviets are downing my bombers even with huge air escort - I had no idea they could suddenly gain strenght like this

quote:

Searry
21 bombers lost damn - I guess escort would be nice - I wasted so many bombers this turn

quote:

Searry
ok airfield bombing with stukas at this point is not viable - had to try though



quote:

Searry
goddamn I love how simple but effective the 3 ab stack kabuki is


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RE: C4 T003 - 9/9/2018 6:46:34 PM   
Telemecus


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999 Battles Error Turn 3

With hindsight we really should have told Searry about the 999 battles bug earlier

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4323500

quote:

quote:

quote:

quote:

Telemecus
how many battles are you on - 999?

Searry
yes

Telemecus
that is why

Searry
uhhh


And it seems Searry is not the first to catch the air war bug - and then the 999 battles bug

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4432007

As a result all the rest of the team have to play the turn afterwards knowing every battle report gets erased when they do the next battle. And the central panel of the battle display each time will give crazy numbers.




quote:

Neogodhobo
This seems a bit excessive, 901 fighter planes and 1,015 bombers. All these airplanes and only one lost on the enemy side (who had 1800 fighters)
Youd think with a thousands bombers, they would have hit something more than 2 arty. Im a bit confused by those high numbers of airplanes participating in a scouting engagement. It seems every battle I do is like this


Searry's team nomination for the award on how to win friends and influence people has since been rescinded. But we know the talent and flair of the Soviet team means they will take it in their stride and probably not even notice.

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< Message edited by Telemecus -- 9/9/2018 7:32:01 PM >

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RE: C4 T003 - 9/9/2018 7:19:43 PM   
Telemecus


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Axis Allocations Turn 3

For information only.

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< Message edited by Telemecus -- 9/27/2018 6:05:21 PM >

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RE: C4 T003 - 9/10/2018 3:52:37 AM   
thedoctorking


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

999 Battles Error Turn 3

With hindsight we really should have told Searry about the 999 battles bug earlier

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4323500




Came as a complete surprise to me as well.

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RE: C4 T003 - 9/10/2018 3:35:26 PM   
thedoctorking


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Connect 4 AAR, Turn 3

This turn proved that I’m not a very good prognosticator of German objectives. Pretty much all the terrible things I was anticipating last turn failed to come to pass. Instead, as the great Stalin (Sparkly) told me, it was a reasonably quiet turn, with the Axis clearing up spots behind their lines and bringing up infantry to support their armored spearheads.

Unfortunately, my analysis of Axis moves is limited because the Axis (without realizing the impact of their actions) did hundreds of recon missions. In so doing, they over-wrote the battle records. That is, when we click on the “report” button or look at the “battles” tab on the Commander’s Report, only the recon missions are visible. Thus, we have no knowledge of actual combats that took place during their turn. Our ability to track their armor and to know where their most effective generals are deployed has been interrupted. This is clearly a bug, and, I’m sure, not intentionally used as an exploit by the Axis players, but it does give them a significant intelligence advantage for this turn. After some discussion on the Discord channel for the game, they said they would not do it again. Annoyingly, with all those recon missions, they only lost 29 recon planes! Here’s what a serious Axis recon spam looks like – or at least the last 950 recon missions they ran:






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RE: C4 T003 - 9/10/2018 3:36:53 PM   
thedoctorking


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In the north, the German offensive turned northwards along pretty much the direct route to Leningrad, although with only one Panzer Group in evidence. One corps pushed across the Velikaya upriver from Pskov, while the other menaced Pskov directly from the west. Meanwhile, at least one infantry corps gathered around Riga but was unable to capture the city. The remainder of about one German infantry army pushed east-northeastwards towards Pskov, while an infantry corps covered the line from the Sorot junction southwards to the Dvina, in the Velikiye Luki sector where we expected their attack to come. Shows you what we know:






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RE: C4 T003 - 9/10/2018 3:37:59 PM   
thedoctorking


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After turn one, we considered the possibility of garrisoning and holding Riga as a thorn in the German’s side in the sector. However, the way the German attacks came, there was a real possibility of a successful attack on the city next turn retreating the defending units out to the northeast and leaving them isolated along the Latvian coast. Regretfully, we evacuated the city by sea and sent the remaining units in the vicinity marching back into Estonia. We brought significant reinforcements – about an army’s worth – into the Pskov region to establish a layered defense in depth. No doubt the Germans will push across the river and sweep through the plains to the east, but they will have difficulty shooting their way into the city itself and the retreat path to the north will be difficult to close. There is a faint possibility of a pocket around Pskov, if the Germans have plenty of movement points and good luck in a bunch of hasty attacks. There probably should have been a few Northern Front divisions farther back in safety stop positions. The Germans don’t really have enough troops to seal the pocket though and might end up getting swallowed up in a tide of Russians if they try.






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RE: C4 T003 - 9/10/2018 3:38:58 PM   
thedoctorking


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In the center, the expected German pocketing move didn’t happen. Instead, their armor hardly moved aside from making the attack necessary to relieve their pocketed panzer division at Vitebsk. Unmoving armor suggests the possibility of an HQBU. Since they didn’t do one last turn, it’s possible that they had enough AP for two corps. To the rear, they cleaned out the Bialystok pocket and moved their infantry forward, though not fast enough to take Minsk, which held for another turn. Both here and in the north, they stacked their airbases very close to the front and very close to large concentrations of Soviet air power. They also gave back the city of Vitebsk that they took last turn – since cities are such good defensive terrain, it seemed like a poor choice to retreat and cede such a strong point back to us.






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