But if as Crackaces said, the Soviets enter 1942 in a weakened state,..
The figures presented in your AAR suggest that with a weekly replacement rate of roughly 120000 troops (as mentioned above) and 13 weeks to go the sov OOB would be 5,8 mio by march 1st '42 (not counting battle/attrition losses). Plus they have 8000+ tanks right now by mid january 42. Is that really what's called a weakened state ?
Your numbers are a bit off. The Soviets do get 120k fresh recruits every week but are also losing around 70k men each week. That means they gain 50k a week. So in 13 weeks that's around 650k. By March 42' they would have 5mio men in their OOB. Many of their divisions will also be spent after the winter offensive and will need to refill their TOEs which translates to them being pulled off the front thus making it more vulnerable. And replacements do lower the exp of divisions which is quite an important factor in combat. Anyways as I said in the post above, the Soviet Army looks anything but weak right now. The CVs of their frontline units are off the roof and they will cause a lot of damage in the winter weeks.
Since my name is being used here .. I want to clarify...
So clearly the Soviets can push the Germans around in the winter. The real problem I see (N=2), is when the next summer offense comes along.
Somebody can correct me, but it is my observation that a division requires about 5,000 to be ready, 7,000 to be effective, and 9,000 is full TO&E. Corps require even larger demands on manpower. So let's say minimum 5,000 men to put a division in a hex 2,000 for a brigade 5M means 1,000 hexes covered minimally. It goes to 714 using 7K. Of course, the Soviets build Corps size units and that reduces coverage by 3 hexes, and concentrates manpower per hex. Stacking 3 Corps to get an offensive advantage even tilts this further ..
With 8MP and an OOB around 5.5M on turn 55 there simply was not enough manpower in units to cover the front from North to South deep enough. A look at the AAR showed that with 5 deep the Germans were able to push deep during a snow turn. On turn 55 the Germans were about to envelop multiple Soviet units.
IN the 2x3 with about 4.3M the Soviets were definitely able to push the Germans back in panic and even surrounded some units in the blizzard. A single division will hold a hex in the winter, and the Soviets concentrated forces against our weakest points. But now on turn 35 and 20 turns for the summer the Soviets are looking at a real challenge to cover the front from North to South. The intensity of the winter offense has multiple turns that the manpower did not increase appreciably.
I understand that the Soviets take even more losses with the latest version? My analysis is simply saying there are X number of hexes to cover with Y manpower no matter the version. About 5 deep where the Germans might attack in the summer is about what it takes to slow the 42 offense. If this is 2 or 3 deep … the Soviets are in trouble.
"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"