I've been working with/playing with an updated 2020 version that postulates...
1. Syrian has either crushed or otherwise neutralized the resistance in Syrian and now controls all airbases/territory.
2. Russian provides an S300 system to cover Damascus and southern Syria from IDF/IAF Strikes (right out of today's headlines)
3. Russia, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah are all joined in a Warsaw Pact like Alliance were an attack on one is an attack on all.
4. Hezbollah is kited out with SA-17 BUKs (possibly already there)
5. Turkey is neutral but allows major power overflights (from a survival POV) from Russian Crimean airbases
6. The U.S., France, UK, Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar all form a loose alliance and cooperate (The enemy of my enemy)
7. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states mentioned above and Iran come to a tacit agreement to keep the Gulf open and Iran itself is not fair game for political and military reasons. The Saudis and Emirates see no need to have their oil facilities smoking ruins and neither does Iran.
8. Following an IAF airstrike on Hezbollah positions in the Bekaa the balloon goes up in the Levant...
So just started, I have basically just defined the Syrian ADA and that is about it right now.
I know that this is a fictional scenario but I think that these scenarios must be a credible What-if not a weird mix.
Point 3 doesn't make sense pal. Russia or another country won't enter in a military alliance with terrorist group.
Also Israel never, never will enter in an alliance with Wahhabi muslims. It will be a political suicide for the israeli government and vice versa. If Jordan enters in a military alliance with Israel, the King shoul fled to Paris in the next 24 hours.
Also, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are not in good harmony. No since Saudi Arabia decrees a blockade last year. Now its like there are two sunni blocks. Qatar and Turkey in one side and Saudi Arabia/UAE in the other side. It doesn't look that this diplomatic conflict could be solved in less than two years at a point to be allieds agains.
I also must remember that Russia and Israel have a special relationship. Israel is considered the only russian speaker country outside the former Tsar and Soviet territories. These strong ties where supported by an intense commercial relationship. Russian UAV programs where based in Israeli technology (Russia bought Searcher mk.II and mk.III). In 2016 Russia was the main Oil supplier to Israel. For example.
The ties between Israel and Russia are very strong. So Russians never will enter in a alliance with Hezbollah. I know that it's hard to believe that due to the neo Cold war propaganda which draw Russians like Soviets...Time Changes. Although I like the Cold War it won't happen again, not with the same actors not in the same format.
You guys always forget that there are a huge conflict between Jews and Muslims. And also between Shia and Sunni.
Turkey cannot be neutral since Sultan Erdogan is playing a major role supporting Muslim rebel groups. Turkey and Wahabbi countries deactivate the real rebellion (but the main group, Free Syrian Army commanded by Col. Riad Al- Assad (he do not have ties with the Dictator) was deactivated by Turkey. Now FSA is a puppet of Turkey. Also Turkey want crush Kurds which are allied of USA in the region. Then Turkey allow Russians to use his airspace but denied it to the tripartite coalition because they are supporting Kurds.
I suggest remove Hezbollah from this insane alliance. The reality, sadly is more complex than in Hollywood movies.
1. US, France, UK and Jordan (tripartite coalition) vs Syria, Iran and Russia
2. Israel vs Hezbollah and Iran.
3. Saudi Arabia and UAE vs Syria and Iran.
4. Turkey and Qatar vs Saudi Arabia and UAE.
for example. Maybe point 4 is excessive for the purpose of this scenario...
At the end, is barely the same but it adds huge an interesting challenge because the player must obtain a positive ID in order to not struck other sides.
My two cents.
< Message edited by Zaslon -- 4/25/2018 11:49:09 AM >
Kids think about Iran and Amateurs think about Russia, but professionals think about China