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RE: War Drums Beating in Syria

 
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RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 3:26:42 PM   
guanotwozero

 

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Trying to defend against it would be a challenging scenario, though. Victory condition could be 1 shootdown, enough for some propaganda. TV cameras showing remains of downed missile, no need to show obliterated targets.

(in reply to mikeCK)
Post #: 31
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 3:50:39 PM   
mikeCK

 

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Tomahawks have been doing this for 30 years; but I am interested to see how the JASSM-ERs launched from the B-1b bombers faired. I haven’t seen any footage of collateral damage indicating a miss but is going to take some time. This is the first use of that system I have heard of...had it been used before?

(in reply to guanotwozero)
Post #: 32
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 4:12:02 PM   
jtoatoktoe

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: mikeCK

Tomahawks have been doing this for 30 years; but I am interested to see how the JASSM-ERs launched from the B-1b bombers faired. I haven’t seen any footage of collateral damage indicating a miss but is going to take some time. This is the first use of that system I have heard of...had it been used before?


Its the first known use. Hence Trumps "New,Smart" missile comment the other day,

(in reply to mikeCK)
Post #: 33
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 4:17:58 PM   
Filitch


Posts: 366
Joined: 6/25/2016
From: St. Petersburg, Russia
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: mikeCK
Lol. No
Pentagon briefing says no missiles were shot down

No comments. I can't discuss the question of religion

quote:

ORIGINAL: mikeCK
Photos of the target shows all 3 completely destroyed.

Yes! All 100+ missiles hit this 3 targets. US missiles so weak that to destroy three buildings needed 100 missiles. Past time, after Shailat hitting we can count shell holes. Do you count 100 shell holes on this photos?

quote:

ORIGINAL: mikeCK
Do you really think that Syrians - operating 20-60 year old Air Defense equipment shot down 70% of terrain following cruise missiles coming in from various axis of attack and accompanied by EW jamming?

It sounds like a mantra "terrain following cruise missiles coming in from various axis of attack and accompanied by EW jamming"
cruise missile is a non-maneuverable, low-speed vehicle - ideal target.
various axis of attack - air defense ability expresses in count of firing channels. not a mystics axis of attack. i see no problem for Buk with 6 firing channels to hit 4 "non-maneuverable, low-speed cruise missiles"
EW jamming - no comments, please read anything, starting from school physics course.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunner98
Since the Russians are past masters at misinformation, propaganda, controlling the press and using information as a weapon.

You are out of line. Please apologize for yout words

quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunner98
And the Pentagon is subject to judicial and public scrutiny

No comments. I can't discuss the question of religion



(in reply to mikeCK)
Post #: 34
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 5:02:07 PM   
DWReese

 

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It's possible, actually very likely, that 100+ missiles were fired with the expectation that the Russian S-400, and other newer systems would be involved. Therefore, the abundance of ordinance guaranteed that it exceeded the saturation level. When the Russian systems didn't come into play, the ordinance was simply overkill.

So, why didn't the Russian equipment actually come into play?

1.) The Russians could see that the amount of ordinance was going to exceed what they had to defend the targets, and they didn't want it to appear that despite the presence of Russian-made equipment, the targets still got hit--resulting in a propaganda loss.

2.) The Russians weren't in actual position (logistically or geographically) to attempt to hit the incoming missiles.

3.) In an effort to avoid any escalation, the Russians elected not to defend the Syrian targets.

4.) By allowing the targets to be hit, the Syrians/Russians could play the "victim card" and call out the attackers as the "aggressors."

5.) A behind-the-scenes deal was struck by the US and Russia for the Allies to conduct a limited "retaliatory" response against Syria with the understanding that the targeted attacks would not expand beyond these specifically designed areas. The Allies could then claim victory on the battlefield, while Syria and Russia can claim victory in the arena of public opinion.

Just some thoughts.

Doug

(in reply to Filitch)
Post #: 35
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 5:20:28 PM   
mikeCK

 

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Yes! All 100+ missiles hit this 3 targets. US missiles so weak that to destroy three buildings needed 100 missiles. Past time, after Shailat hitting we can count shell holes. Do you count 100 shell holes on this photo”

Ok, so we are off the “70% of missiles were shot down” and moving into ridiculousness. The Tomahawk carries a 1000lb warhead and the JASSM carries a 450lb warhead. Have you ever worked in targeting? These complexes weren’t just 1 building. They had multiple buildings and there is built in redundancy. May want to hit 10 locations on a target...so you might launch 20 (2 at each) with another 8 split between the largest or most important

Your just being silly. I guess the Russian 1000lb warhead is far more damaging because.....it’s Russian

I have to think your just messin with me.


< Message edited by mikeCK -- 4/14/2018 5:38:50 PM >

(in reply to DWReese)
Post #: 36
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 5:26:52 PM   
mikeCK

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DWReese

It's possible, actually very likely, that 100+ missiles were fired with the expectation that the Russian S-400, and other newer systems would be involved. Therefore, the abundance of ordinance guaranteed that it exceeded the saturation level. When the Russian systems didn't come into play, the ordinance was simply overkill.

So, why didn't the Russian equipment actually come into play?

1.) The Russians could see that the amount of ordinance was going to exceed what they had to defend the targets, and they didn't want it to appear that despite the presence of Russian-made equipment, the targets still got hit--resulting in a propaganda loss.

2.) The Russians weren't in actual position (logistically or geographically) to attempt to hit the incoming missiles.

3.) In an effort to avoid any escalation, the Russians elected not to defend the Syrian targets.

4.) By allowing the targets to be hit, the Syrians/Russians could play the "victim card" and call out the attackers as the "aggressors."

5.) A behind-the-scenes deal was struck by the US and Russia for the Allies to conduct a limited "retaliatory" response against Syria with the understanding that the targeted attacks would not expand beyond these specifically designed areas. The Allies could then claim victory on the battlefield, while Syria and Russia can claim victory in the arena of public opinion.

Just some thoughts.

Doug


Doug, I think we wanted to avoid a conflict with Russia. We told them that we would not target Russian equipment or personnel UNLESS they attempted to interfere with the strike. Russians knew that if they didn’t shoot, they wouldn’t lose anything.

Had they tried to interfere, it would have quickly escalated in no one’s interest

(in reply to DWReese)
Post #: 37
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 5:27:41 PM   
Gunner98

 

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quote:

quote:ORIGINAL: Gunner98 Since the Russians are past masters at misinformation, propaganda, controlling the press and using information as a weapon. You are out of line. Please apologize for yout words


Not sure why I should apologize for stating that the Russians are following their doctrine:

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PE100/PE198/RAND_PE198.pdf

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/09/05/gerasimov-doctrine-russia-foreign-policy-215538

https://globalsecurityreview.com/series/russian-information-warfare-interference-2016-election/

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2017/578016/EXPO_IDA%282017%29578016_EN.pdf

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-weaponising-misinformation-destabilise-west-nato-cyber-attacks-michael-fallon-a7560481.html

https://jsis.washington.edu/ellisoncenter/wp-content/uploads/sites/13/2017/05/collison_chris_Russia’s-Information-War-Old-Strategies-New-Tools-How-Russia-Built-an-Information-Warfare-Strategy.pdf

https://www.thecipherbrief.com/maskirova-russias-gray-zone-peace-war

https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/parameters/Issues/Summer_2017/8_Iasiello_RussiasImprovedInformationOperations.pdf

http://www.css.ethz.ch/en/services/digital-library/articles/article.html/1c93c122-e11f-45d4-afde-c5e17a3185fb/pdf

So I won't

B



(in reply to Filitch)
Post #: 38
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 5:41:37 PM   
mikeCK

 

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You shouldnt

(in reply to Gunner98)
Post #: 39
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 5:44:26 PM   
Duck Doc


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Grabbing bowl of popcorn and pulling up footstool...


(in reply to mikeCK)
Post #: 40
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 6:29:29 PM   
Zaslon

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: mikeCK

And yes, I believe an official US military briefing over the statements of a Russian General 13 hours after the strike

Why? Looks like both have the same credibility (close to zero).
Because Russians are communist?

quote:

ORIGINAL: mikeCK
Do you really think that Syrians - operating 20-60 year old Air Defense equipment shot down 70% of terrain following cruise missiles coming in from various axis of attack and accompanied by EW jamming?

What equipment operate the Syrian Air defense?

_____________________________


Kids think about Iran and Amateurs think about Russia, but professionals think about China

(in reply to mikeCK)
Post #: 41
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 7:13:16 PM   
Airborne Rifles

 

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Any indication that the Israeli strike a few days ago may haven some sort of “recon by fire” to confirm the location of Syrian air defenses? Not sure how much the Israelis would share this sort of tactical information, but the thought occurred to me.

(in reply to Zaslon)
Post #: 42
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 7:44:33 PM   
DWReese

 

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I agree. I don't believe that either wanted conflict, and it was "agreed upon" before that the strike would be limited, but that it was coming. Both sides left it at that, and each saves face.

Doug

(in reply to mikeCK)
Post #: 43
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 7:49:28 PM   
mikeCK

 

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If you think a Russian general in Moscow has the same credibility as to accuracy of a strike conducted by the United States As a US PENTAGON spokesman then I don’t see how we can have a conversation. Especially considering he claimed that nothing was damaged and 70% of the missiles were shot down

Anyway, anyone here anything new about the JASSM performance in particular?

< Message edited by mikeCK -- 4/14/2018 8:01:53 PM >

(in reply to DWReese)
Post #: 44
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 7:55:43 PM   
Filitch


Posts: 366
Joined: 6/25/2016
From: St. Petersburg, Russia
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunner98
Not sure why I should apologize for stating that the Russians are following their doctrine:

What mean this bulk of links?
US are much more "masters at misinformation, propaganda, controlling the press and using information as a weapon", but here we are discussing military and technical question, but nobody fantasy about Russian bear or American foozle.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunner98
So I won't

I don't ask you opinion. You must.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mikeCK
Do you really think that Syrians - operating 20-60 year old Air Defense equipment

Looks like you don't know real situation with Syrian AD and its equipment.

(in reply to Gunner98)
Post #: 45
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 8:00:08 PM   
Filitch


Posts: 366
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From: St. Petersburg, Russia
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quote:

ORIGINAL: mikeCK

If you think a Russian general in Moscow has the same credibility as to accuracy of a strike conducted by the United States As a US PENTAGON spokesman then I don’t see how we can have a conversation

Russian general unlike his Pentagon vis-a-vis has access to targets. But Pentagon general can base their opinion only on satellite photo. So - yes. Russian have same credibility.

(in reply to mikeCK)
Post #: 46
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 8:10:15 PM   
Gunner98

 

Posts: 4183
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From: The Great White North!
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quote:

I don't ask you opinion. You must.


Well I'm afraid not. Enjoy your opinion - everyone's got one.

(in reply to Filitch)
Post #: 47
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 8:12:47 PM   
mikeCK

 

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https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2018/04/14/us-launched-105-weapons-against-syria-with-none-intercepted-dod-says/

Apparently United States military was so concerned with the deadly Syrian air defense that there were no EW escorts for any of the bombers except 1 EA-6B which is an obsolete version of the new EF-18. Because of the standoff weaponry they were not needed. I think the take away from the article is the lack of electronic warfare craft utilized. If they thought the air defense system would be significant or the Russians would take part, they certainly would’ve had more assets

< Message edited by mikeCK -- 4/14/2018 8:15:39 PM >

(in reply to Filitch)
Post #: 48
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 8:27:32 PM   
Gunner98

 

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So according to this article compared to our omniscient Russian General's statement:

77 Tomahawks out of the 57 fired were shot down by 40 SAMs fired after all the attacking weapons had impacted. Impressive.

B

(in reply to mikeCK)
Post #: 49
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 8:38:16 PM   
OldSarge


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From: Albuquerque, NM
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunner98

So according to this article compared to our omniscient Russian General's statement:

77 Tomahawks out of the 57 fired were shot down by 40 SAMs fired after all the attacking weapons had impacted. Impressive.

B



There were 66 Tomahawks fired overall, 57 targeted the R&D facility in Damascus.
30 USS Monterey
23 USS Higgins
7 USS Laboon
6 USS John Warner

Still, downing 77 out of 66 is an impressive achievement!

_____________________________

You and the rest, you forgot the first rule of the fanatic: When you become obsessed with the enemy, you become the enemy.
Jeffrey Sinclair, "Infection", Babylon 5

(in reply to Gunner98)
Post #: 50
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 8:50:34 PM   
Filitch


Posts: 366
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From: St. Petersburg, Russia
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quote:

ORIGINAL: mikeCK


Yes! All 100+ missiles hit this 3 targets. US missiles so weak that to destroy three buildings needed 100 missiles. Past time, after Shailat hitting we can count shell holes. Do you count 100 shell holes on this photo”

Ok, so we are off the “70% of missiles were shot down” and moving into ridiculousness. The Tomahawk carries a 1000lb warhead and the JASSM carries a 450lb warhead. Have you ever worked in targeting? These complexes weren’t just 1 building. They had multiple buildings and there is built in redundancy. May want to hit 10 locations on a target...so you might launch 20 (2 at each) with another 8 split between the largest or most important

Your just being silly. I guess the Russian 1000lb warhead is far more damaging because.....it’s Russian

I have to think your just messin with me.



Please, count here 100 shell craters

http://uploads.ru/vXVYQ.jpg

http://uploads.ru/tG4UW.jpg

http://uploads.ru/DW2BO.jpg

Show, where on this photo this explosion repeats 70 times: https://youtu.be/8sa7ZX58Kk4?t=17

(in reply to mikeCK)
Post #: 51
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 8:57:21 PM   
Filitch


Posts: 366
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From: St. Petersburg, Russia
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quote:

ORIGINAL: OldSarge
Still, downing 77 out of 66 is an impressive achievement!


Can you read or understand readed? 71 is total count of shot downed missiles. Tomahawks, SCALPs, JASSMs, Storm Shadows

(in reply to Gunner98)
Post #: 52
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 9:06:07 PM   
Filitch


Posts: 366
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From: St. Petersburg, Russia
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunner98

Well I'm afraid not. Enjoy your opinion - everyone's got one.

Not everyone. Minion-countries not has. They can only repeat opinion of Great Powers.

(in reply to Gunner98)
Post #: 53
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 9:07:21 PM   
OldSarge


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From: Albuquerque, NM
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Filitch

quote:

ORIGINAL: OldSarge
Still, downing 77 out of 66 is an impressive achievement!


Can you read or understand readed? 71 is total count of shot downed missiles. Tomahawks, SCALPs, JASSMs, Storm Shadows


I can read and do math just fine, thank you for asking. I was responding to Gunner.

I still say, downing 71 missiles with only 40 SAM launches is very impressive!

(in reply to Filitch)
Post #: 54
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 9:11:51 PM   
Gunner98

 

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quote:

I can read and do math just fine, thank you for asking. I was responding to Gunner. I still say, downing 71 missiles with only 40 SAM launches is very impressive!


I stand corrected OldSarge. Thank you.

Also impressive that the first satalite photos of the area are Russian.

B

(in reply to OldSarge)
Post #: 55
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 9:37:43 PM   
mikeCK

 

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Oldsarge, surely you know that Russian missiles are so good that they can take out 2 American Tomahawks. What is amazing is all those tomahawks the Syrians intercepted over targets that were never fired upon.
Apparently they were able to incinerate the missiles
As well as no one has found the Remenants of any downed
Tomahawk.

I’m not sure if I really believe that anyone seriously believes that 70 out of 100 missiles were shot down By 30 year old ADA.

Would have been interesting if the Russians had attempted to target the attack with the S-400. I do question whether any air defense can protect a target from 20 low flying missiles coming from different directions

(in reply to Gunner98)
Post #: 56
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 10:30:52 PM   
Gunner98

 

Posts: 4183
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From: The Great White North!
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quote:

Not everyone. Minion-countries not has. They can only repeat opinion of Great Powers.


Sorry I was speaking about personal opinion. I'm not sure my government has made a statement except for deploring the gas attacks.

Do you have personal opinions where you come from? Where is that - oh I see.



(in reply to Filitch)
Post #: 57
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 11:03:53 PM   
OldSarge


Posts: 305
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From: Albuquerque, NM
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quote:

ORIGINAL: mikeCK

Oldsarge, surely you know that Russian missiles are so good that they can take out 2 American Tomahawks. What is amazing is all those tomahawks the Syrians intercepted over targets that were never fired upon.
Apparently they were able to incinerate the missiles
As well as no one has found the Remenants of any downed
Tomahawk.

I’m not sure if I really believe that anyone seriously believes that 70 out of 100 missiles were shot down By 30 year old ADA.

Would have been interesting if the Russians had attempted to target the attack with the S-400. I do question whether any air defense can protect a target from 20 low flying missiles coming from different directions


It isn't just the equipment, it is also the quality of the soldiers at the controls (level of training, experience, initiative, will to fight, et cetera). It all comes down to getting inside the OODA loop, which at first glance appears to be what happened.


(in reply to mikeCK)
Post #: 58
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 11:15:43 PM   
Zaslon

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: mikeCK

If you think a Russian general in Moscow has the same credibility as to accuracy of a strike conducted by the United States As a US PENTAGON spokesman then I don’t see how we can have a conversation. Especially considering he claimed that nothing was damaged and 70% of the missiles were shot down

Anyway, anyone here anything new about the JASSM performance in particular?

You did not wrote any reason. Why a US pentagon spokesman has more credibility than a Russian spokesman?
It is not reasonable. And you do not want have a conversation because you know that your position is not reasonable.
We are not supporting a team in a match, that's not the Superbowl, that's real life. People die every day in Syria.

I do not have proofs in any direction. I only have 2 statements about the same event. And I do not have any posibility to discover who is telling the true and Who is liying...Or maybe why not? both are lying. Maybe the true is between both versions of the event.

Some of you are trying to think....That's good. But pals. you are cheating. You have your pre-established ideas and from this conclusions your are building the evidences to support it (its the reverse order)....Yeah. Now some of you are using some fake statements of the russian spokesman...And Do you think that if the russian spokesman lie, the US Spokesman is telling the true? That's ridiculous
Normally we must prove true facts. False claims only serves to discard them, that's not bad, but it's not enough to know the true.

By the way, the russian spokesman didn't said tomahawks, he said cruise missiles (Tomahawks, SCALP, Storm Shadow and JASSM-ER). When this statement didn't work to support your own conclusion, you switched to another statement...It's impossible to Shut down 71 missiles with only 40 SAMs. And that's true. It is impossible. The problem again is...Who said that. US Spokesman. Why he has more credibilty? WMDs in Irak, remember? That's a fact now.
Then, what we have here.
Russian Spokesman: 71 missiles shot down.
US Spokesman: 40 SAMs launched.
Yeah, again. Someone lie, or maybe both.

We do not know what is happened last night in the skies of Syria. We wont' know the true. You must understand it.


_____________________________


Kids think about Iran and Amateurs think about Russia, but professionals think about China

(in reply to mikeCK)
Post #: 59
RE: War Drums Beating in Syria - 4/14/2018 11:18:37 PM   
Zaslon

 

Posts: 285
Joined: 6/14/2015
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quote:

ORIGINAL: mikeCK

I’m not sure if I really believe that anyone seriously believes that 70 out of 100 missiles were shot down By 30 year old ADA.

I asked you before. I will try again. You said that the Syrian air defense is 30 years old...so what's the equipment in use by the Syrian Air defense?



_____________________________


Kids think about Iran and Amateurs think about Russia, but professionals think about China

(in reply to mikeCK)
Post #: 60
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