De 637 – germany: occupy vichy france? (vichy france is pro-Axis) § event fires: When Vichy France is pro-Axis but neutral, Algeria is in Allied hands, Paris, Dijon and Nancy are in Axis hands, and there is either a British or US unit within 6 hexes of Algiers. § cost of accepting: 75 MPPs. § yes: Germany occupies Vichy France, with a Garrison unit deploying at Marseilles. There is an 80% chance of the French scuttling their ships, and this is tested separately against both elements of the Vichy fleet (the Provence Battleship and Jean de Vienne Light Cruiser) so that either or both might be scuttled. If any ships aren’t scuttled, then the UK will receive them in Algiers. § no: If Vichy France is neutral when the Allies liberate Paris, it will have a 50% chance of swinging 15-25% towards the Allies in every subsequent turn.
Obviously no allied unit within 6 hexes of Algier.
It's late sept., USA are at 69%. The weather will undoubtly have a significant impact on the outcome of the race.