Cfant (sorry I do not know your Christian name) it is not over until the fat lady sings and she not currently in the building.
This is a summary of how I current see things. Willies rail heads are at 123,327 & 126,315 & 139,327 & 151,363.
His closest units are on the 74 hex line (closest is at 74,329) and he has to get to 49,324 in 71 moves to win, 82 moves for a draw and after that I win. With all my previous MLRs Willie has taken at least 2-3 moves to break the line. Once he has made a hole I have had to step back.
The current situation is different in that there is no place in the centre that he can break in. In the centre each hex is held by a Bn+ with Hexes closet to 49,324 filling up with Regt's. I also have 3 rings of antitank guns around Berlin. There is no need to step back. 25 hex lines with 2-3-4-5 (?) turns per line. There is also a super river to cross.
To the south he can fight his way through the MLR which is now 3 hexes deep. But I am now starting another MLR between the current MLR and the Berlin defensive area. He is yet to make contact in the south. 8-10 turns before he is ready to attack there?
In the north he is still 20 hex lines away and then he has to fight in a 3 hex corridor that how has 4 lines of defence and improving.
Also I am now on interior lines and it is easy for me to move my reserves whereas once Willie commits to one line of attack it will not be so easy to shift his effort.
Of cause he could wait until he builds up on all three sides so I am spread very thinly. But that will take time and does he have enough?
This game will go down to the line. Last time I played Willie I only lost by 20 something turns and that was because I made a mistake from which I could not recover.
But having said that DO NOT place any money on me winning as I am not that confident. Yet.
Thought for the day:
If you feel like doing some work, sit down and wait....... The feeling does go away.