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RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW)

 
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RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/13/2018 1:36:03 AM   
Rusty1961

 

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Hey thanks for this AAR. I'm really enjoying it.

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 961
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/13/2018 6:24:58 AM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Rusty1961

Hey thanks for this AAR. I'm really enjoying it.
warspite1

Thank-you


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to Rusty1961)
Post #: 962
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/13/2018 10:32:52 AM   
warspite1


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Turn 207 - Axis Turn
9th September 1942


The highlights of the turn were:

- 4 bombardments from devoncop (we'll look at those in a minute.
- Axis forces continue to withdraw from south of the Depression - but there remains the bulk of the force still (in number if not in quality).
- I spotted on Me-109 reinforcement, but a lot of Italian fighters too - including bi-planes.
- Overall still plenty of reinforcements moving up from Tripolitania, the Jebel, Tobruk and Mersa Matruh.

1 + 4 - In these two attacks the Axis air forces account for, amongst other things, 18 field guns and 29 infantry squads and lose 10 aircraft (4 destroyed) in the process.
2 - A further 8 field guns are lost in addition to 11 infantry squads and sundry other equipment
3 - 37 Spitfires engage 15 Me-109 and 61 bombers. The CW fighters stop a bomb attack and lose 8 aircraft (3 destroyed) in doing so. They account for 12 enemy aircraft (4 destroyed). The enemy lose just 1 fighter.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 5/13/2018 10:49:07 AM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to Rusty1961)
Post #: 963
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/13/2018 10:55:46 AM   
warspite1


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From: England
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Turn 207
9th September 1942


Despite the latest losses to field guns the victory indicator moves back in my favour. I lose the 9th Indian Infantry Brigade which may have helped those numbers.



Attachment (1)

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 5/13/2018 10:56:23 AM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 964
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/13/2018 11:03:00 AM   
warspite1


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Turn 207
9th September 1942


Before proceeding I will have a recap at the state of play of my forces. The good news is that there appears to be no reorganising going on at the moment.

I start with the aircraft position. I have 66 squadrons but effective strength is just over 51. Even so, the table indicates that I have air superiority of 10 vs 4.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 5/13/2018 11:22:11 AM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 965
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/13/2018 12:02:41 PM   
warspite1


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From: England
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Turn 207
9th September 1942


Since the last check on Turn 199 the net number of tanks lost has been just 37 - despite losing two regiments that are being converted for mine clearance and 1 regiment lost completely. Considering the action that has taken place this is a good thing

The replacement rate looks somewhat healthier thanks to the arrival of the Shermans.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 5/13/2018 12:04:45 PM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



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Post #: 966
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/13/2018 12:13:18 PM   
warspite1


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Turn 207
9th September 1942


Surprisingly the artillery position is not as bad as feared. This can only be because of new arrivals to the theatre - which have now largely dried up I believe. So compared to turn 199, when I last reviewed:

Anti-Tank Guns +18 (although only 3 reserves remain (previously 96) and no replacements.

Field Guns +27 (and reserves are up to 68 from 38)

Anti-aircraft +103 (and reserve are up to 7 from 1). Again no replacements.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 967
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/13/2018 12:16:30 PM   
warspite1


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From: England
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Turn 207
9th September 1942


Now the not so good news. I had 6,012 Rifle and SMG Squads on turn 199. I now have 5,366 despite all the new formations that arrived.....




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 968
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/13/2018 12:26:19 PM   
warspite1


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From: England
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Turn 207
9th September 1942


Although no whole divisions have not gone into reorganisation, one tank regiment - 45th RTR - in the front line has. Bum. I start to look around for potential attack sites.

Two places for attack identified (Red) and four for bombardment (Blue).




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 5/13/2018 12:52:55 PM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 969
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/13/2018 3:25:51 PM   
warspite1


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Turn 207
9th September 1942


The combat predictions are weird... Another 'excellent' attack and another shed load of CW infantry are toast At least in the north ground is made - although when I then try and cut off the Axis units on the coast I get a battalion of South Africans evaporated....

Great start

CW losses are critical - I order three more attacks and I don't know how many units evaporated in the south, while in the other two, the CW losses are just enormous....



Attachment (1)

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 5/13/2018 3:33:29 PM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 970
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/13/2018 3:45:06 PM   
warspite1


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From: England
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Turn 207
9th September 1942


Three final attacks are launched and these manage to force the enemy to give ground albeit at huge cost. I can't take a photo (as the final round) but will post the butcher's bill - which I am frankly dreading.....

Sadly this has to be filed under 'you couldn't make it up'... There's a scene in the film Battle of Britain where Goering asks Galland what he can do for him - to which Galland responds "Give me a squadron of Spitfires". This is actually based on a true story but it involves Chruchill and Longmore. When asked by Churchill what he wanted to help matters Longmore (obviously) replied "A squadron of CR.42 biplanes".....

Those air scores are just unfathomable - air battles 9, 13 and 14 in particular. As for the Allied bombers, I'm sure they have a purpose, and I'll let you know once I find out what it is (other than to simply get shot down for ***** and giggles).

Ho hum.....




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 5/13/2018 4:35:54 PM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 971
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/15/2018 5:17:50 PM   
warspite1


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Turn 208
12th September 1942


Some nasty results for the infantry - a battalion of Durham Light Infantry is evaporated - but the air battles work in the Allied favour for a change (albeit the CW continue to lost more destroyed regardless of losses). Strange goings on - the CW have air superiority but the German fighters flew far more sorties....

Three bombardments from the Axis this turn. I'll take a look at the result




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 5/15/2018 5:33:01 PM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 972
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/15/2018 5:37:07 PM   
warspite1


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Turn 208
12th September 1942


Despite the hideous infantry losses in the CW turn the victory points continue to edge in the Allied favour - although the result remains a draw.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 973
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/15/2018 5:39:37 PM   
warspite1


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From: England
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Turn 208
12th September 1942


Delighted to report another key unit - 10th Armoured Division - is reorganising... great.

Usual drill for my squadrons - if its not dark green then its on 'rest'. With Burg El Arab back in Allied hands and El Hammam under siege, the airfield situation swings firmly back in the CW favour. I decide to maximise that situation (hopefully) by filling up the airfields at Amiriya....

This exercise gets off to the perfect start as I move an Aussie base unit onto an airfield with two Dark Green, combat ready fighters on air superiority. The airfield gets attacked and one fighter is now reorganising while the other has turned yellow....

My next job is to move units up to try and take El Hammam. However, a check of my infantry shows my battalions to be totally screwed. I will have to search around desperately for any infantry battalions that contain....well, you know...infantry....

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 5/15/2018 5:53:19 PM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 974
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/15/2018 6:51:58 PM   
warspite1


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Turn 208
12th September 1942


Well as piggin' disasters go.... that was a piggin' disaster. When a billion units attacking from four sides against a couple of parachute detachments get screwed then you know the game is up. Once again I'll provide the butchers bill but if every hex costs this then I'll have run out of infantry before the end of September.... I have to assume that devoncop is keeping units back to counter-attack with - and when it comes I'll have nothing to stop it - not that he needs to counter-attack, bombardment seems to evaporate my infantry anyway.....

The only good news is that the El-Hammam fell.

But I have no fresh units left. I've tried to keep the Kiwis and Aussies (for the most part) aside, but these were both badly mauled when they first came back on the scene so I don't know to what extent they recovered. Reorganisation is bound to feature next turn..... again

In truth I need a few turns to recover but I can't afford that for two reasons a) the turns are running out, and b) as has been shown repeatedly, the CW can't win a duel with the Axis guns. If I allow them to consolidate and choose their ground they will destroy my infantry and guns without even having to break sweat.

It ain't easy!

Each land attack was packed with extensive artillery support and massive air support and yet......



Attachment (1)

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 5/15/2018 8:37:44 PM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 975
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/15/2018 11:01:25 PM   
Szilard

 

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Nil desperandum!

You can't avoid a battle of attrition, and it looks to me like you're winning it, more or less.

As Monty said before 2nd El Alamein: first the break-in, then the dog-fight, then the victory; here, have some cigs.

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 976
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/16/2018 12:13:55 AM   
MikeJ19


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Warspite,

I agree with Szilard, you are doing fine. It is frustrating to see the casualties and having units go into reorg, but you are moving the yardsticks in the right direction.

_____________________________

Mike

Retired Gunner

(in reply to Szilard)
Post #: 977
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/16/2018 1:39:41 AM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 11433
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From: Houston, TX
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Szilard

This inspired me to actually RTFM to work out what goes on ...


Gotta understand TFM, too.

quote:

Section 9.1.10:

"Units of Formations failing a Formation Quality
Check at the beginning of a Turn are considered
to be Reorganizing and will only be available for
non-combat orders. They will accept all other
orders, and they will Defend normally, but are not
available for launching Attacks or Bombardments.
Formation Quality is the average of the
Formation’s Proficiency and average assigned
unit Quality. Formation Quality is reduced if
many units are divided. The Formation passes the
Quality Check if this value is greater than a random
number from 1 to 100, or [?? presumably this should be "and"]


Nope. Both checks must fail. This is combat reorganization - reorganization due to heavy combat. A formation that hasn't been in combat can't suffer combat reorganization.

quote:

if the number of units that
experienced severe combat results in the previous
Turn is smaller than a random number from 1 to
the number of units in the Formation."


So, if the formation has about 20 units, and, let's say 5 of them have had heavy combat losses, this check is 25% odds, too. Those two probabilities are multiplied together to get the true odds.


quote:

And:


19.1.2. Unit Quality Calculation
Quality = (2 x proficiency + readiness) / 3


So: The 51st Div has formation proficiency of 70 and all of its assigned units appear to start out at 70 also. At 100% unit readiness, average Unit Quality = (2*70+100)/3 = 80. Which gives Formation Quality = average(70,80) = 75. So the division has a 25% chance of re-org each turn. Modulo increases in unit proficiency, reductions in readiness and severe combat results. And modulo loss of div HQ and losses to support squads.

To me, that seems too high for a good quality C'wealth division. I think British C&C failings should include a Force Proficiency aspect. Something like re-org check against average of Formation Quality and Force Proficiency. At the moment, Force Proficiency mainly impacts early turn endings.

Anyway, it would have been nice if after all these years, the system would allow for both Force and Formation Proficiency to be varied via events, reflecting eg Monty arriving to hand out cigs, tidy up the lesser mortals' messes & take a grip on things.





_____________________________

My TOAW web site:

Bob Cross's TOAW Site

(in reply to Szilard)
Post #: 978
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/16/2018 7:16:47 AM   
warspite1


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Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
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Turn 209
16th September 1942


Thanks for your encouragement Szilard and MikeJ19, but.....

Just two bombardments from the Axis this turn - and of course THREE CW units evaporate - one battalion of infantry and two anti-tank units simply disappear.... 42% loss with one bombardment....

It's very disconcerting to see the sheer number of enemy reinforcements too at this stage of the campaign - another turn with over 4,000 moves as reinforcements of all kinds stream east.

As luck would have it I've lost the services of the South Africans, the French and the Indians this turn to reorganisation

Oh and the Raid on Rommel fails....

Every picture tells a story. I think this picture sums up the position at the moment. one parachute detachment is tasked with holding off four stacks of CW.... I expect the 150+ infantry squads he'll take with him makes it worth it....






Attachment (1)

_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to MikeJ19)
Post #: 979
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/16/2018 7:19:35 AM   
warspite1


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From: England
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Turn 209
16th September 1942


Right - time to snap out of this spiral of depression. What I need is a new plan! I will go to work and think about it on the way.

Onwards and upwards!

_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 980
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/16/2018 9:51:10 AM   
MikeJ19


Posts: 2674
Joined: 1/29/2014
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay


quote:

ORIGINAL: Szilard

This inspired me to actually RTFM to work out what goes on ...


Gotta understand TFM, too.

quote:

Section 9.1.10:

"Units of Formations failing a Formation Quality
Check at the beginning of a Turn are considered
to be Reorganizing and will only be available for
non-combat orders. They will accept all other
orders, and they will Defend normally, but are not
available for launching Attacks or Bombardments.
Formation Quality is the average of the
Formation’s Proficiency and average assigned
unit Quality. Formation Quality is reduced if
many units are divided. The Formation passes the
Quality Check if this value is greater than a random
number from 1 to 100, or [?? presumably this should be "and"]


Nope. Both checks must fail. This is combat reorganization - reorganization due to heavy combat. A formation that hasn't been in combat can't suffer combat reorganization.

quote:

if the number of units that
experienced severe combat results in the previous
Turn is smaller than a random number from 1 to
the number of units in the Formation."


So, if the formation has about 20 units, and, let's say 5 of them have had heavy combat losses, this check is 25% odds, too. Those two probabilities are multiplied together to get the true odds.


Curtis,

That makes sense, but I have had units that have not been in any combat for a couple of turns go into reorg mode. That should not be happening based on my understanding of the rules.

Thanks for your explanation, it is really helpful,



_____________________________

Mike

Retired Gunner

(in reply to Curtis Lemay)
Post #: 981
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/16/2018 2:09:14 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 11433
Joined: 9/17/2004
From: Houston, TX
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: MikeJ19


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay


quote:

ORIGINAL: Szilard

This inspired me to actually RTFM to work out what goes on ...


Gotta understand TFM, too.

quote:

Section 9.1.10:

"Units of Formations failing a Formation Quality
Check at the beginning of a Turn are considered
to be Reorganizing and will only be available for
non-combat orders. They will accept all other
orders, and they will Defend normally, but are not
available for launching Attacks or Bombardments.
Formation Quality is the average of the
Formation’s Proficiency and average assigned
unit Quality. Formation Quality is reduced if
many units are divided. The Formation passes the
Quality Check if this value is greater than a random
number from 1 to 100, or [?? presumably this should be "and"]


Nope. Both checks must fail. This is combat reorganization - reorganization due to heavy combat. A formation that hasn't been in combat can't suffer combat reorganization.

quote:

if the number of units that
experienced severe combat results in the previous
Turn is smaller than a random number from 1 to
the number of units in the Formation."


So, if the formation has about 20 units, and, let's say 5 of them have had heavy combat losses, this check is 25% odds, too. Those two probabilities are multiplied together to get the true odds.


Curtis,

That makes sense, but I have had units that have not been in any combat for a couple of turns go into reorg mode. That should not be happening based on my understanding of the rules.

Thanks for your explanation, it is really helpful,



The other route to reorganization is via Shock penalties. For example, the CW in this scenario had a 4% shock penalty for a long time. Each turn 4% (on average) of the CW formations would go into reorganization via that method. That could be thought of as C & C issues.

< Message edited by Curtis Lemay -- 5/16/2018 2:10:48 PM >


_____________________________

My TOAW web site:

Bob Cross's TOAW Site

(in reply to MikeJ19)
Post #: 982
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/16/2018 10:03:43 PM   
MikeJ19


Posts: 2674
Joined: 1/29/2014
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: online
Curtis,

Okay, that makes sense too. Thanks for all the info and help.

Have a good day,

_____________________________

Mike

Retired Gunner

(in reply to Curtis Lemay)
Post #: 983
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/18/2018 9:00:50 PM   
warspite1


Posts: 40073
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline
Turn 209
16th September 1942


So the plan was to concentrate on just two hexes (with bombardments of three others + the taking out of the lone paratroop unit). I gambled on the turn not ending early to get three major bombardments in before attacking.

The airbase at Amiriya was used extensively to get my fighters closer to the action.

The air battles went in the CW favour (although not by much as they should have given the odds. There were few Me-109's and a lot of biplanes in those attacks but.....

The second hex was further to the south just out of shot but I can't get a picture of it as its end of turn.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 5/18/2018 9:03:01 PM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to MikeJ19)
Post #: 984
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/18/2018 9:07:05 PM   
warspite1


Posts: 40073
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline
Turn 209
16th September 1942


The butchers bill. Not quite as damaging to the Axis as I'd hoped but hell I'll take anything positive at the moment!!




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 985
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/19/2018 10:05:34 AM   
warspite1


Posts: 40073
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline
Turn 210 - Axis Turn
19th September 1942


Only two bombardments from the Axis but they are pretty devastating on the CW artillery.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 5/19/2018 10:16:14 AM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 986
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/19/2018 10:16:47 AM   
warspite1


Posts: 40073
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline
Turn 210
19th September 1942


The victory conditions continue to slowly edge in the Allies favour but the Germans still have 249 points for objectives....




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 5/19/2018 10:23:00 AM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 987
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/19/2018 10:43:52 AM   
warspite1


Posts: 40073
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline
Turn 210
19th September 1942


The aircraft situation seems to be good. Air superiority is 9 vs 3. I have 71 squadrons (although the actual equivalent in terms of aircraft is just 54) - and of these 71, 46 are operational. Reserves are significantly below the 300 mark now but replacement nos. remain healthy




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 5/19/2018 10:59:50 AM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 988
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/19/2018 10:50:02 AM   
warspite1


Posts: 40073
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline
Turn 210
19th September 1942


I can't see any reorganisation troop formations so now its a case of deciding what to do. As before I will have to risk an early end to the turn in favour of trying to maximise bombardment rounds.

Firstly I noticed more German units leaving the area south of the Depression to join the defence up north. I move light forces in behind to try and get a reaction.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 5/19/2018 11:04:55 AM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 989
RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) - 5/19/2018 11:12:20 AM   
warspite1


Posts: 40073
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline
Turn 210
19th September 1942


But I need to ignore shenanigans in the south. The coastal plain is - and has to be - the object of my main attention. The five hexes ringed will be the focus - and I hope at least two of these can be attacked before the turn end.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 5/19/2018 11:13:31 AM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 990
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