Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: KorutZelva


Did I sink them? This would account why I couldn't find them. (From the last turn replay it didn't look like I did. I guess I'll have to double check the loss ledger...)

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April 3rd, 1940

Shocked by Germany's decision to invade the neutral Netherlands, Belgium joins the allies.
The UK rush to defend Belgium while French weapons arrive to equip the Belgian army. (I want to prevent Italy from joining as long as possible to preserve the Diplochit advantage...)
Speaking of which... USA Diplo hit number 4... Now at 72%, Germany decision not to declare war on Belgium prevents the USA from getting within one diplohit from joining...

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My 2 cents!

Since this is an AAR, I try to get the game in situations seldom seen for the entertainment of the public. I haven't seen this strategy used yet so I figured I would give it a whirl.

Each strategy have a rock-paper-scissor aspect but it is true that the best laid plans of dice and men can fall flat because of bad weather, uncooperative tech rolls, sub dives etc. The way I see it, There's some chance to factor at every turn and part of the fun and of the challenge is how you manage these risks. The diplo war is a mix of cat-and-mouse and strong-arming, where the stakes are very high. In my own experience, if you invest in diplo there's no place for half measure. Let's say you have a 15% chance, since there's is something like 14 turns a year, you can expect 2 hits a year.

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If that's a country that need 6 hits to join, you need to be really lucky or very patient. However, if you manage to push it higher than 25%, suddenly it can happen very quickly. Between the UK and France 8 chits, I got that % with the USA to climb to 40% before Germany investment eventually took it down to 30% per turn. (30% is still something of dangerzone so Germany better hustle!) At 40% even if France falls mid-June, the Allies should score 4 hits on average putting you in an advantageous position even if you suffer an early France fall because of it. yes, there's chance involved in the ''KZ's USA first Strategy''(tm) but it is a play where the odds are quite good. It is a bit of wealth transfer to the UK as it allow the lend lease to fire earlier and then jump start the increases of its amount.

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Yes, but for some things (like weather, tech gains, combat and sub dives) the luck will probably average out over the course of the game. Also, you can't compare a sub diving (often for just an extra turn or attack) with the US joining before France falls. One is an annoyance, the other is a game breaker. I was not aware that the UK and France could each invest 4 diplo chits in the US. I assumed it was just 3. Had I known that I suppose I would have reacted differently. Though exactly what I could have done differently I'm not sure. Invested earlier in my own Diplomacy in the US I suppose. But the odd thing is that didn't actually hurt me. It wasn't until after I did invest that you started getting the hits. Anyway, once the US joins I will probably surrender as it will be game over. Good Game you outplayed me with an excellent strategy. I would like to try again if you are willing, to see if I can counter your strategy (or whatever new strategy you come up with).

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ORIGINAL: Harrybanana

So if the UK and France combined can be guaranteed a minimum 25% chance of a diplo hit on the US and if it requires 5 or 6 hits to get the US into the War; then it will take on average 20 to 24 turns, which is about 2/3rds of a year. In our game you are about to start turn 20.

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ORIGINAL: Taxman66

Just out of curiosity, if those had been USSR investments (instead of USA) and the USSR had taken an aggressive stance (e.g. no treaty adjustment) could you have the USSR in the war while Germany is occupied with France? At the very least I imagine the USSR would have a very powerful income to prepare for 1941.

I'm also wondering where the play balance determined that major power diplo chits were (only) x3 as valuable/cost as diplo for other countries. Seems to me they maybe should cost more as even 1 hit can provide a return (in MPP) on the investment that you really don't get when used on a minor.

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ORIGINAL: KorutZelva

Luck did even out in a way, Germany getting 3 hits in 4 turns of 15% diplomacy is certainly even less likely to happen than 4 hits of months of allied balls to the walls diplomacy.

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I'm not ready to call it a gamebreaker strategy yet. The allies did spend some 1800mpp to make it happen, that's that much tech not researched or units produced, plenty of weaknesses to be exploited. for example, even if USA has already activated, the opportunity cost for Vichy, Sealion, Gibraltar and Middle East advances are removed.

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The UK and Germany have 5 chits. Italy and France have 3 each. USA doesn't have any cap like Switzerland and Spain have so all 8 can be invested if money allows.

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Once France is out the Axis have numerical superiority and could technically roll USA's influence back.

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ORIGINAL: KorutZelva

With USA subsidies any UK losses can be rebuilt relatively quickly.

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ORIGINAL: KorutZelva

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ORIGINAL: Harrybanana

So if the UK and France combined can be guaranteed a minimum 25% chance of a diplo hit on the US and if it requires 5 or 6 hits to get the US into the War; then it will take on average 20 to 24 turns, which is about 2/3rds of a year. In our game you are about to start turn 20.

If Germany (5) matches UK (5) investment then the allies have 15% chance on account of France chits (3). At 15% you can expect 1-2 hits within the time span of France still being around. Manageable risk but very expensive for Germany. It also sorta forces them to go for Spain via the Morroco decision since all their diplochits are tied up.

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I think you have to accept that you are a much better player than you think you are.

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ORIGINAL: Harrybanana

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ORIGINAL: KorutZelva

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ORIGINAL: Harrybanana

So if the UK and France combined can be guaranteed a minimum 25% chance of a diplo hit on the US and if it requires 5 or 6 hits to get the US into the War; then it will take on average 20 to 24 turns, which is about 2/3rds of a year. In our game you are about to start turn 20.

If Germany (5) matches UK (5) investment then the allies have 15% chance on account of France chits (3). At 15% you can expect 1-2 hits within the time span of France still being around. Manageable risk but very expensive for Germany. It also sorta forces them to go for Spain via the Morroco decision since all their diplochits are tied up.

Assuming France can survive until the German July 7, 1940 turn (which is likely in our game) that is 27 turns. But admittedly the Allies would not have a 15% chance for all of those turns. So on average there would be about 3 to 4 US diplo hits. Of course, I wish I knew all this before our game. As is I am learning the hard way. But better to learn the hard way then to not learn at all.

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ORIGINAL: KorutZelva

I can't get a hit on your turn and vice versa. So 27 turns is really 13,5 chances of diplohits. At 15% that's 2 hit on average.