Did I sink them? This would account why I couldn't find them. (From the last turn replay it didn't look like I did. I guess I'll have to double check the loss ledger...)
My mistake, I thought you had sunk both of them, but I guess you only got one of them. Sorry
April 3rd, 1940
Shocked by Germany's decision to invade the neutral Netherlands, Belgium joins the allies.
The UK rush to defend Belgium while French weapons arrive to equip the Belgian army. (I want to prevent Italy from joining as long as possible to preserve the Diplochit advantage...)
Speaking of which... USA Diplo hit number 4... Now at 72%, Germany decision not to declare war on Belgium prevents the USA from getting within one diplohit from joining...
Except that with the DOWs on Norway and Denmark you are back within 1 diplo hit. In hindsight, had I known that you would get another diplo hit on your turn (and that I would get rain again on my turn) I would not have invaded Norway or Denmark too late now.
My 2 cents!
Since this is an AAR, I try to get the game in situations seldom seen for the entertainment of the public. I haven't seen this strategy used yet so I figured I would give it a whirl.
Each strategy have a rock-paper-scissor aspect but it is true that the best laid plans of dice and men can fall flat because of bad weather, uncooperative tech rolls, sub dives etc. The way I see it, There's some chance to factor at every turn and part of the fun and of the challenge is how you manage these risks. The diplo war is a mix of cat-and-mouse and strong-arming, where the stakes are very high. In my own experience, if you invest in diplo there's no place for half measure. Let's say you have a 15% chance, since there's is something like 14 turns a year, you can expect 2 hits a year.
As I understand it diplo hits can occur on both the Allied and Axis turns and there are 34 turns per year.
If that's a country that need 6 hits to join, you need to be really lucky or very patient. However, if you manage to push it higher than 25%, suddenly it can happen very quickly. Between the UK and France 8 chits, I got that % with the USA to climb to 40% before Germany investment eventually took it down to 30% per turn. (30% is still something of dangerzone so Germany better hustle!) At 40% even if France falls mid-June, the Allies should score 4 hits on average putting you in an advantageous position even if you suffer an early France fall because of it. yes, there's chance involved in the ''KZ's USA first Strategy''(tm) but it is a play where the odds are quite good. It is a bit of wealth transfer to the UK as it allow the lend lease to fire earlier and then jump start the increases of its amount.
Yes, but for some things (like weather, tech gains, combat and sub dives) the luck will probably average out over the course of the game. Also, you can't compare a sub diving (often for just an extra turn or attack) with the US joining before France falls. One is an annoyance, the other is a game breaker. I was not aware that the UK and France could each invest 4 diplo chits in the US. I assumed it was just 3. Had I known that I suppose I would have reacted differently. Though exactly what I could have done differently I'm not sure. Invested earlier in my own Diplomacy in the US I suppose. But the odd thing is that didn't actually hurt me. It wasn't until after I did invest that you started getting the hits. Anyway, once the US joins I will probably surrender as it will be game over. Good Game you outplayed me with an excellent strategy. I would like to try again if you are willing, to see if I can counter your strategy (or whatever new strategy you come up with).
< Message edited by Harrybanana -- 12/26/2017 5:54:58 AM >