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HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental Championship

 
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HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental Cham... - 12/19/2017 12:37:26 PM   
KorutZelva

 

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Heya folks!

Its on.




==============

Not much going on the first turn.

Poland curls into a ball around Warsaw.



< Message edited by KorutZelva -- 12/19/2017 10:35:46 PM >
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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/19/2017 10:39:09 PM   
KorutZelva

 

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September 22, 1939

Germany finishes off isolated units before resuming the march on warsaw.

A cluster of 4 units (2 gar, 1 army, 1 corp) protects the city.

Germany probes the Maginot defenses while France does the Taxman shuffle.

< Message edited by KorutZelva -- 12/19/2017 11:03:23 PM >

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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/20/2017 12:30:50 AM   
Taxman66


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My next game, I intend to modify the maginot shuffle, moving the Strasbourg army to either the line or straight to Paris

_____________________________

"Part of the $10 million I spent on gambling, part on booze and part on women. The rest I spent foolishly." - George Raft

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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/20/2017 5:54:45 AM   
Harrybanana

 

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Korut, am I welcome here, or do you want me to stay out?

German intelligence takes note that both the UK and France have spent considerable sums on Diplomacy. Could they be trying to entice the US into an early war entry? Or are they trying to ensure that Franco stays neutral? I suspect I will find out soon enough.

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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/20/2017 7:10:55 AM   
KorutZelva

 

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You are welcomed of course. I will only post stuff with a delay so that nothing critical to the current turn is shared.

====

The diplomatic jig is up as it becomes evident the UK and France have been lobbying the USA to do the fighting for them. No hits yet though!

Both German tanks were used in the mopping up operation of Poland. They would still need to be upgraded and possibly reinforced, so HQ thinks it is unlikely an assault will occur before spring. Hopefully this will buy me time to get some diplo hits in!

France keeps unit size at 5 across the maginot line except Strasbourg army at 8. Sensing weakness in the vaulted enemy defences Germany continue to probe the fortified city of Metz.

There's going to be a Star Wars truce tonight since I'm going to the Theatre. :-)

< Message edited by KorutZelva -- 12/20/2017 8:15:16 AM >

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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/20/2017 4:19:26 PM   
KorutZelva

 

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1939/11/5

Germany gets its first diplohit in Spain because life is unfair. There's quite a bit of traffic in the atlantic on the Canada sea lane as France and the UK cojointly patrol. Ships and subs keep bumping into one another left and right. From memory 1 DD (str 8), 1 BB (str 8) and 2 sub (str 7) are damaged.

< Message edited by KorutZelva -- 12/20/2017 4:25:20 PM >

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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/21/2017 3:04:56 AM   
Harrybanana

 

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Yes, but all that "bumping" is very much to the benefit of the Allies. At this rate the Battle of the Atlantic will be over very quickly.

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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/21/2017 4:12:35 AM   
KorutZelva

 

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You'll get new batches to replace any losses. Plus, in all likelihood, the next batch will have tech-ed up. That's just the first round...

Nov 27 1939

Finland invaded
2 subs battered (low str, low supply), 1 still pristine. Surface raiders active in the Caribbean.
First diplo hit with the US (YAY!), minimum influence roll aka 8% (BOO!)
Based on spending charts, Germany is going heavy on units and applying max pressure on spain. So far it has committed to a single 175mpp tech research (Ground attack?)
Germans are starting to mass at the border but snow is starting to fall...

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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/21/2017 9:51:19 AM   
KorutZelva

 

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December 19, 1939

The sitzkrieg is really an embassy war. Both Spain (11%) and USA (9%) gets second diplohit. USA starts lend lease program.
Germany, cunningly, goes to Luxenbourg to close the distance in prevision to the invasion of France.
Germany buys two 150 diplochits. Who was the target? USA, USSR or... Italy?
The healthy sub distracts the UK-France navy while the wounded one escapes. It's given a bloody nose, and the convoy lane will be mostly secure for some time...

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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/21/2017 11:02:27 PM   
KorutZelva

 

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20 january 1940

Two low supply subs try to sneak through the Canada convoy line to get to future liberated France but a cloud of UK-French fleet is still very much there. The UK-French fleets bats them around but can't sink them.

Anti-War propaganda hurts the French Army spirit...

One last allied turn before the war turns hot again...

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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/22/2017 7:02:51 AM   
KorutZelva

 

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March 2 1940

The french destroyer Terrible follows its legacy in sub warfare excellence established in my game vs taxman and sinks a german sub. Another str 2 out of supply sub has no real hope to make it to port. The third german sub, unseen, is probably halfway to make it to Greenland or France.
It's a diploheavy game, with the Allies scoring their third USA hit. The 14% increase puts the USA at 55% even before Germany goes on its war declaring spree.
Bit of a weird game with Italy (350) having invested more in Tech than both the UK (0) and Germany (175) so far.
USSR is at 28% following Stalin displeasure at the German annexation of Lithuania.
USSR wins the winter war. The western powers treacherously didn't send any help to the finns.
Weather clears at the end of the turn... Let's get ready to rumbleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

=============

Those that read my first AAR can guess now that I like to play an aggressive diplomatic game. My initial objective was to get 4 USA diplohit before France fall (3 if Germany invest in counter diplomacy) so I either reached my objective or got within one diplohit shy of it. I scored higher than average but so has Germany with Spain scoring back to back hits on its first two turn of diplochit investment.

The traditional 'safe play' is for the allies to stall germany's spanish advances for as long as possible. The thinking behind ''KZ's USA first Strategy''(tm) is that Germany going for Spain leaves an opening for the allies to pursue the USA. Germany is also cash poor at the start and is hard pressed to match the investment in USA chits. France is doomed and even if your strategy is to make a strong showing there (banning the commie, increased UK involvement etc.) you're probably going to buy yourself at most 1-2 extra turn of survival anyway if Germany was diligent in acquiring additional units prior to the invasion.

It's a bit of a gambit but after my first Poland turn I was confident I could last 3 turns. Left unchecked this gambit can sometimes allow the allies to get the USA to join before France fall. Fun fact, the moral boost it gives the French can make them survive the fall of Paris an extra turn!

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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/22/2017 12:34:59 PM   
jjdenver

 

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Nice to see another AAR. Thanks.

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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/22/2017 12:56:23 PM   
Taxman66


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Hey KZ would you please take a picture of the French defenses before the hammer falls and then share it after it doesn't matter anymore.
I'm curious what it looks like if you've spent 300 French MPP (or more?) on USA diplo.

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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/22/2017 1:50:07 PM   
KorutZelva

 

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Forgot to say anti-war sentiment was on the rise again last turn.

Well, it's more 450 mpp (three 150 chits)! The hammer will fall before I get an opportunity to do it but one thing I can say right now is that I went cheap on the Maginot line and have not renforced anything south of Metz. I was maintaining Metz at about that level also but Germany kept chipping at the corp's entrenchment and I finally got tired of it and brought it up to 10 last turn.

Skipped out on Engineer and the Finland relieve force to save money and sent the poles to the UK (but they haven't got there yet.) I got lucky that all three diplo hit were from the UK because France can not really afford more chits after these three (well unless you start disbanding your air or Germany gets delayed by bad weather).

My guess is that Harrybanana is going for heavy air strategy. From memory, Italy got a 175 and a 125 which if I had to guess would be Ground attack and Aerial warfare + 175 in german tech (probably Ground attack) and important unit investment. I'm seeing a hardcore London blitz in my future.

< Message edited by KorutZelva -- 12/22/2017 3:56:45 PM >

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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/22/2017 5:34:34 PM   
KorutZelva

 

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Time for a WW I Christmas truce, as I'm going to the in-laws for a couple of days. I'll be back on the 25th or the 26th.

Joyeux Noël!

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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/22/2017 6:22:42 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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Merry Christmas Korut.

Personally I am not a big fan of playing the "Diplomacy War" Game. In my opinion it makes winning the game more about luck than skill. So far Korut has gotten 3 Diplomacy hits with the US so, after my invasion of the Netherlands, US mobilization sits at 59% and it is only March 1940. I have invested 2 German chits in US Diplomacy myself so his chances should only be 20% per turn. Perhaps I shouldn't complain as I have gotten 3 hits with Spain which sits at 46% pro-Axis and I only have at best a 15% chance per turn. But I would trade my 3 hits with Spain for Korut's 3 with the US in a heartbeat. I don't blame Korut for doing this, it is in the Rules and, as it turns out, has been a very smart move. I just don't like having the game decided so much by luck.

I suppose the counter to his strategy would have been an early invasion of France. Unfortunately, lady luck was against me there as well as there were no clear turn skies in Western Europe from November 1939 until my March 1940 turn (well at least not on the Axis turns). I then decided to only invade the Netherlands thus causing Belgium to join the Allies. Since Belgium DOWed Germany rather than vice versa this saved me some US mobilization. So now the race is on to see if the US will join before I can finish off France. Clear skies in April, May and June would help.

Not to say Korut isn't also outplaying me. This last turn he sunk 2 subs.

< Message edited by Harrybanana -- 12/22/2017 10:45:28 PM >

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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/26/2017 12:15:04 AM   
KorutZelva

 

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Did I sink them? This would account why I couldn't find them. (From the last turn replay it didn't look like I did. I guess I'll have to double check the loss ledger...)

April 3rd, 1940

Shocked by Germany's decision to invade the neutral Netherlands, Belgium joins the allies.
The UK rush to defend Belgium while French weapons arrive to equip the Belgian army. (I want to prevent Italy from joining as long as possible to preserve the Diplochit advantage...)
Speaking of which... USA Diplo hit number 4... Now at 72%, Germany decision not to declare war on Belgium prevents the USA from getting within one diplohit from joining...

=================

My 2 cents!

Since this is an AAR, I try to get the game in situations seldom seen for the entertainment of the public. I haven't seen this strategy used yet so I figured I would give it a whirl.

Each strategy have a rock-paper-scissor aspect but it is true that the best laid plans of dice and men can fall flat because of bad weather, uncooperative tech rolls, sub dives etc. The way I see it, There's some chance to factor at every turn and part of the fun and of the challenge is how you manage these risks. The diplo war is a mix of cat-and-mouse and strong-arming, where the stakes are very high. In my own experience, if you invest in diplo there's no place for half measure. Let's say you have a 15% chance, since there's is something like 14 turns a year, you can expect 2 hits a year. If that's a country that need 6 hits to join, you need to be really lucky or very patient. However, if you manage to push it higher than 25%, suddenly it can happen very quickly. Between the UK and France 8 chits, I got that % with the USA to climb to 40% before Germany investment eventually took it down to 30% per turn. (30% is still something of dangerzone so Germany better hustle!) At 40% even if France falls mid-June, the Allies should score 4 hits on average putting you in an advantageous position even if you suffer an early France fall because of it. yes, there's chance involved in the ''KZ's USA first Strategy''(tm) but it is a play where the odds are quite good. It is a bit of wealth transfer to the UK as it allow the lend lease to fire earlier and then jump start the increases of its amount.


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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/26/2017 1:15:04 AM   
Taxman66


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Just out of curiosity, if those had been USSR investments (instead of USA) and the USSR had taken an aggressive stance (e.g. no treaty adjustment) could you have the USSR in the war while Germany is occupied with France? At the very least I imagine the USSR would have a very powerful income to prepare for 1941.

I'm also wondering where the play balance determined that major power diplo chits were (only) x3 as valuable/cost as diplo for other countries. Seems to me they maybe should cost more as even 1 hit can provide a return (in MPP) on the investment that you really don't get when used on a minor.

< Message edited by Taxman66 -- 12/26/2017 1:17:32 AM >


_____________________________

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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/26/2017 1:30:48 AM   
Harrybanana

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: KorutZelva


Did I sink them? This would account why I couldn't find them. (From the last turn replay it didn't look like I did. I guess I'll have to double check the loss ledger...)


My mistake, I thought you had sunk both of them, but I guess you only got one of them. Sorry

quote:

April 3rd, 1940

Shocked by Germany's decision to invade the neutral Netherlands, Belgium joins the allies.
The UK rush to defend Belgium while French weapons arrive to equip the Belgian army. (I want to prevent Italy from joining as long as possible to preserve the Diplochit advantage...)
Speaking of which... USA Diplo hit number 4... Now at 72%, Germany decision not to declare war on Belgium prevents the USA from getting within one diplohit from joining...


Except that with the DOWs on Norway and Denmark you are back within 1 diplo hit. In hindsight, had I known that you would get another diplo hit on your turn (and that I would get rain again on my turn) I would not have invaded Norway or Denmark too late now.


=================

quote:

My 2 cents!

Since this is an AAR, I try to get the game in situations seldom seen for the entertainment of the public. I haven't seen this strategy used yet so I figured I would give it a whirl.

Each strategy have a rock-paper-scissor aspect but it is true that the best laid plans of dice and men can fall flat because of bad weather, uncooperative tech rolls, sub dives etc. The way I see it, There's some chance to factor at every turn and part of the fun and of the challenge is how you manage these risks. The diplo war is a mix of cat-and-mouse and strong-arming, where the stakes are very high. In my own experience, if you invest in diplo there's no place for half measure. Let's say you have a 15% chance, since there's is something like 14 turns a year, you can expect 2 hits a year.


As I understand it diplo hits can occur on both the Allied and Axis turns and there are 34 turns per year.

quote:

If that's a country that need 6 hits to join, you need to be really lucky or very patient. However, if you manage to push it higher than 25%, suddenly it can happen very quickly. Between the UK and France 8 chits, I got that % with the USA to climb to 40% before Germany investment eventually took it down to 30% per turn. (30% is still something of dangerzone so Germany better hustle!) At 40% even if France falls mid-June, the Allies should score 4 hits on average putting you in an advantageous position even if you suffer an early France fall because of it. yes, there's chance involved in the ''KZ's USA first Strategy''(tm) but it is a play where the odds are quite good. It is a bit of wealth transfer to the UK as it allow the lend lease to fire earlier and then jump start the increases of its amount.


Yes, but for some things (like weather, tech gains, combat and sub dives) the luck will probably average out over the course of the game. Also, you can't compare a sub diving (often for just an extra turn or attack) with the US joining before France falls. One is an annoyance, the other is a game breaker. I was not aware that the UK and France could each invest 4 diplo chits in the US. I assumed it was just 3. Had I known that I suppose I would have reacted differently. Though exactly what I could have done differently I'm not sure. Invested earlier in my own Diplomacy in the US I suppose. But the odd thing is that didn't actually hurt me. It wasn't until after I did invest that you started getting the hits. Anyway, once the US joins I will probably surrender as it will be game over. Good Game you outplayed me with an excellent strategy. I would like to try again if you are willing, to see if I can counter your strategy (or whatever new strategy you come up with).




< Message edited by Harrybanana -- 12/26/2017 5:54:58 AM >

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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/26/2017 6:01:05 AM   
Harrybanana

 

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So if the UK and France combined can be guaranteed a minimum 25% chance of a diplo hit on the US and if it requires 5 or 6 hits to get the US into the War; then it will take on average 20 to 24 turns, which is about 2/3rds of a year. In our game you are about to start turn 20.

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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/26/2017 6:28:50 AM   
KorutZelva

 

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quote:

Yes, but for some things (like weather, tech gains, combat and sub dives) the luck will probably average out over the course of the game. Also, you can't compare a sub diving (often for just an extra turn or attack) with the US joining before France falls. One is an annoyance, the other is a game breaker. I was not aware that the UK and France could each invest 4 diplo chits in the US. I assumed it was just 3. Had I known that I suppose I would have reacted differently. Though exactly what I could have done differently I'm not sure. Invested earlier in my own Diplomacy in the US I suppose. But the odd thing is that didn't actually hurt me. It wasn't until after I did invest that you started getting the hits. Anyway, once the US joins I will probably surrender as it will be game over. Good Game you outplayed me with an excellent strategy. I would like to try again if you are willing, to see if I can counter your strategy (or whatever new strategy you come up with).


Luck did even out in a way, Germany getting 3 hits in 4 turns of 15% diplomacy is certainly even less likely to happen than 4 hits of months of allied balls to the walls diplomacy. I'm not ready to call it a gamebreaker strategy yet. The allies did spend some 1800mpp to make it happen, that's that much tech not researched or units produced, plenty of weaknesses to be exploited. for example, even if USA has already activated, the opportunity cost for Vichy, Sealion, Gibraltar and Middle East advances are removed.

The UK and Germany have 5 chits. Italy and France have 3 each. USA doesn't have any cap like Switzerland and Spain have so all 8 can be invested if money allows. Once France is out the Axis have numerical superiority and could technically roll USA's influence back.

April 3rd start of turn situation


The French center was not fully renforced at the start of Case Yellow. I tasked the UK and the belgian armies into holding the line a couple of turn to give time to prop their readiness up. With USA subsidies any UK losses can be rebuilt relatively quickly.


(in reply to Harrybanana)
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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/26/2017 6:51:30 AM   
KorutZelva

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana

So if the UK and France combined can be guaranteed a minimum 25% chance of a diplo hit on the US and if it requires 5 or 6 hits to get the US into the War; then it will take on average 20 to 24 turns, which is about 2/3rds of a year. In our game you are about to start turn 20.


If Germany (5) matches UK (5) investment then the allies have 15% chance on account of France chits (3). At 15% you can expect 1-2 hits within the time span of France still being around. Manageable risk but very expensive for Germany. It also sorta forces them to go for Spain via the Morroco decision since all their diplochits are tied up.

(in reply to Harrybanana)
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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/26/2017 7:13:39 AM   
KorutZelva

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

Just out of curiosity, if those had been USSR investments (instead of USA) and the USSR had taken an aggressive stance (e.g. no treaty adjustment) could you have the USSR in the war while Germany is occupied with France? At the very least I imagine the USSR would have a very powerful income to prepare for 1941.

I'm also wondering where the play balance determined that major power diplo chits were (only) x3 as valuable/cost as diplo for other countries. Seems to me they maybe should cost more as even 1 hit can provide a return (in MPP) on the investment that you really don't get when used on a minor.


It is certainly possible. Honestly, if there's a gamebreaker strat, this is probably it. Germany can spare having USA joining because they have no army and will require a ramp up phase before they are a threat. Not so much for the USSR. If Germany is caught flatfooted then all of the USSR static defences survive activation. With 2 garrison unit in the east? Yeah... it's lights out.

In the ye olde SC days, USSR and USA chits were 250 mpp I believe. People never bought then. I'm ok with 150 but would probably put some kind of cap on USSR ones. Something like 2 chit max for Germany, 1 for UK, 1 for France, 0 Italy and USA. Stalin trusted no one (not even himself, so the quote says).

At a fixed price, only a handful of minors are 'worth their price'. I do wish there were more variety between minor prices. There would still be an opportunity cost in picking how you use you chits. Let's say you put Yugoslavia at 15 mpp and Spain at 60mpp, maybe you'd see Axis player trying a yugo push if they want to keep their diplo expenses low.

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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/26/2017 7:13:57 AM   
Harrybanana

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: KorutZelva

Luck did even out in a way, Germany getting 3 hits in 4 turns of 15% diplomacy is certainly even less likely to happen than 4 hits of months of allied balls to the walls diplomacy.


I agree Germany got even luckier with it's diplomacy on Spain than the Allies have been with the US. In a way that is my point, that with diplomacy the game can be decided more by luck than by skill. But also I would trade all 3 of my Spain diplomacy hits for just 1 of your US hits, they are not equal.


quote:

I'm not ready to call it a gamebreaker strategy yet. The allies did spend some 1800mpp to make it happen, that's that much tech not researched or units produced, plenty of weaknesses to be exploited. for example, even if USA has already activated, the opportunity cost for Vichy, Sealion, Gibraltar and Middle East advances are removed.


We will have to agree to disagree on whether it is a game breaker. If 3 other experienced players post here giving their honest opinion that US entry into the War prior to the Fall of France does not mean the Axis are doomed than I will continue playing if/when this happens. Otherwise I would prefer to admit my defeat and take another crack at it. It is true you have spent 1800 MPPs but 450 of the MPPs you spent were French, which is not the same as UK. And Germany has spent 450 MPPS to counter. The difference being that you will be able to make up the 1350 UK MPPs you spent by way of increased US production within a few turns; but I will never be able to make up the 450 I have lost.

quote:

The UK and Germany have 5 chits. Italy and France have 3 each. USA doesn't have any cap like Switzerland and Spain have so all 8 can be invested if money allows.


I did not know this. Had I known I would have purchased more US diplomacy chits with Germany. As far as I can tell this is not in the Rules. For a Newbie player you certainly seem to know the Rules well, even the "hidden" ones. I don't mean this critically, just the opposite. I think you have to accept that you are a much better player than you think you are.

quote:

Once France is out the Axis have numerical superiority and could technically roll USA's influence back.


If the US is not in the War before France is out I will continue playing; I just don't think that is likely.



(in reply to KorutZelva)
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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/26/2017 7:15:50 AM   
Harrybanana

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: KorutZelva

With USA subsidies any UK losses can be rebuilt relatively quickly.



I think you are kind of making my point here.

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RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/26/2017 7:22:45 AM   
Harrybanana

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: KorutZelva


quote:

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana

So if the UK and France combined can be guaranteed a minimum 25% chance of a diplo hit on the US and if it requires 5 or 6 hits to get the US into the War; then it will take on average 20 to 24 turns, which is about 2/3rds of a year. In our game you are about to start turn 20.


If Germany (5) matches UK (5) investment then the allies have 15% chance on account of France chits (3). At 15% you can expect 1-2 hits within the time span of France still being around. Manageable risk but very expensive for Germany. It also sorta forces them to go for Spain via the Morroco decision since all their diplochits are tied up.



Assuming France can survive until the German July 7, 1940 turn (which is likely in our game) that is 27 turns. But admittedly the Allies would not have a 15% chance for all of those turns. So on average there would be about 3 to 4 US diplo hits. Of course, I wish I knew all this before our game. As is I am learning the hard way. But better to learn the hard way then to not learn at all.

(in reply to KorutZelva)
Post #: 26
RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/26/2017 7:59:11 AM   
KorutZelva

 

Posts: 1235
Joined: 2/4/2017
Status: offline
Germany destroys the brits expeditionary force and a UK AA, circle around eben emael, destroy the belgian army in brussel and paradrop in it. Belgium surrenders.

May 17th, 1940

French armies breaks contact because that 25% bonus from prepared attacks hurts like hell. (Hopefully out of range from his planes too.) France implement the 'Polish Ball' defense around Paris and a skeleton crew is left at the maginot line.

Italy joins at the end of turn.

quote:

I think you have to accept that you are a much better player than you think you are.


Goddamit!

April 3rd after turn



UK jumps to the Front. Disbanded the French planes to have more $ to reinforce my armies.

< Message edited by KorutZelva -- 12/26/2017 8:15:18 AM >

(in reply to Harrybanana)
Post #: 27
RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/26/2017 8:02:52 AM   
KorutZelva

 

Posts: 1235
Joined: 2/4/2017
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana


quote:

ORIGINAL: KorutZelva


quote:

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana

So if the UK and France combined can be guaranteed a minimum 25% chance of a diplo hit on the US and if it requires 5 or 6 hits to get the US into the War; then it will take on average 20 to 24 turns, which is about 2/3rds of a year. In our game you are about to start turn 20.


If Germany (5) matches UK (5) investment then the allies have 15% chance on account of France chits (3). At 15% you can expect 1-2 hits within the time span of France still being around. Manageable risk but very expensive for Germany. It also sorta forces them to go for Spain via the Morroco decision since all their diplochits are tied up.



Assuming France can survive until the German July 7, 1940 turn (which is likely in our game) that is 27 turns. But admittedly the Allies would not have a 15% chance for all of those turns. So on average there would be about 3 to 4 US diplo hits. Of course, I wish I knew all this before our game. As is I am learning the hard way. But better to learn the hard way then to not learn at all.


I can't get a hit on your turn and vice versa. So 27 turns is really 13,5 chances of diplohits. At 15% that's 2 hit on average.


< Message edited by KorutZelva -- 12/26/2017 8:05:47 AM >

(in reply to Harrybanana)
Post #: 28
RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/26/2017 4:09:27 PM   
Taxman66


Posts: 1437
Joined: 3/19/2008
From: Columbia, MD. USA
Status: offline
I was thinking about your game here (and what Korut did to me in our game with Diplo vs. the USA) and had an epiphany level idea.
I put it in its own separate thread, and would like to hear your guys' thoughts.

USA and USSR Diplo Suggestion

_____________________________

"Part of the $10 million I spent on gambling, part on booze and part on women. The rest I spent foolishly." - George Raft

(in reply to KorutZelva)
Post #: 29
RE: HBK vs KZtonk man: Battle for the Intercontinental ... - 12/26/2017 5:58:20 PM   
Harrybanana

 

Posts: 1751
Joined: 11/27/2004
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: KorutZelva

I can't get a hit on your turn and vice versa. So 27 turns is really 13,5 chances of diplohits. At 15% that's 2 hit on average.



Are you sure about that? I read in a post somewhere that diplomacy hits for both sides happen at the end of both players turns. Also thought that at least one of your hits happened at the end of my turn. I also know that the automatic mobilization changes (such as for Italy and Russia in 1941) happen at the end of both players turns. But it could very well be that I am wrong about this as well. It certainly is not explained in the Rules. Accordingly I would appreciate if either Hubert or Bill could give us a definitive answer.

If they do only fire at the end of our respective turns than all I can say is that both of us have been lucky, me more so than you. You have played 11 turns; of which you have had a 30% chance of a diplo hit on about 6 of them. On the rest of them your chances varied from 5% to 25%. So you should have averaged about 2.5 hits and you've gotten 4. I have had a 15% chance of a Spain hit on about 3 of my 12 turns and a 10% chance on about 6 of them. So I should have averaged only 1 hit and have 3.

(in reply to KorutZelva)
Post #: 30
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