From: Hoorn (NED).
Do you wish to use AA against ground strike 1, 2 or both? I'm not sure the effects of surprise on AA fire ...
Ground strikes 1-3 are surprise (i.e., double rolls). The RAF Hampden (GSTK #2) is flying extend range so it's tactical factors are halved from 3 to 2 (rounded up).
The Polish ground strike (#4) is not a surprise (I believe) but MWiF will still roll double. Assuming this is a bug ... I will reorganize (by editing) any units disorganized on the second roll of this ground strike.
The 88 AA gun will fire against the Hampden. I believe the AA factors should be halved, making the roll -1/6.
I am not sure about the polish ground strike. It seems odd that it would get the benefit of surprise, but it may be the way the rule is written. Other expert will know better than I.
Major powers and minor countries are surprised when a major power
declares war on them, even if they are already at war with someone
else. However, they are not surprised by a major power or minor
country they are currently at war with. Furthermore, they are not
surprised by land or aircraft units attacking from, or flying over, hexes
controlled by a major power or minor country at war with them last
So: it's a bug.