From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
11/1/45 to 11/5/45
The Enemy Stirs: After snoozing, utterly, for more than nine months, Erik is taking some interest in the game. Mass IJ bombers from the Home Islands hit a major Allied base on Hokkaido, destroying nearly 200 aircraft (mostly 4EB, mostly B-19Gs) on the ground. He's been sniffing around Allied shipping activities between Formosa and China, and down in the DEI. On the 5th, a bunch of 1EB and 2EB sortied, a lot of them getting chewed up by LRCAP, but one package finding an unprotected transport TF in the Java Sea, sinking a few APDs and damaging a few other ships. I think Erik's other two games have slowed considerably, so that he has more time and interest in this one. And the very late date now probably has him intrigued as to just how much he can do to stymie Allied efforts.
The Allies: Allied armor has attacked at Shanghai three times in the past two weeks. The first time, the IJ adjusted AV was 28k; time two it was 16k; time three it was 12k. Tomorrow, a general attack, including the infantry. It will be tough on the Allied units but should indicate if the defenders are teetering. I think they are. I think there's a decent chance Shanghai falls in November.
Allied armies are moving inland from coastal China and also inland from Nanking. I think Erik has lots of units in good defensive positions in the interior. I don't expect to reach, much less take, Chungking this year. But the push will continue, both for secondary bases and to await opportunities.
Strategic bombing (mostly nighttime vs. Manpower) is going well; tonight, all nighttime 4EB will hit Gifu aircraft factories. This is unusal - Gifu doesn't have Manpower; and it's very hard to score hits vs. specific aircraft factories; but it isn't impossible. I think Erik doesn't have much flak or CAP, due to the lack of Manpower, so we'll see if the raid succeeds.
DS Corsairs swept Nagasaki today with good results. More tomorrow, augmented by P-47Ns from Korea.
Erik has concentrated his fighters at certain key bases: Nagasaki (half destroyed), Osaka (half destroyed), Tokyo (pretty untouched), Yokahama (modestly damaged), Hiroshima (pristine) and Kobe (minor damage). He has 1k+ at Osaka.
FInally, finally, finally the second A-Bomb is ready. The target tomorrow is Tokyo Heavy Industry. There's lots of it, so the hope is that it'll be susceptible to damage.
Allies still seem to be on track to have a 40k to 60k lead by the end of the year.