From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
I feel like I'm putting my head in a noose.
I spent a lot of time overnight and this morning thinking about where Death Star & The Herd are headed. The prospect of being surrounded by level 9 and level 7 airfields populated by many as 5,000 to 7,000 aircraft with excellent pilots is a daunting one.
The Allies might prevail. Weather may mess up Erik's attacks, spreading them out; or the fine Allied navy fighters plus flak may perform superbly. But their is a realistic chance that DS could get chewed up, leaving this massive armada inside a noose with no clear way out. The repercussions from that are daunting, as the Allied positions (NoPac, China coast, Malaya) would be fragmented and unable to support one another in the short- or medium terms.
If Erik pounces this next turn, the matter may have been decided. I don't think he will, however, giving me a chance to adjust. I'll take a careful look at his bases and air force dispositions.
There is a possibility I'm considering - another drastic change of course to the south. This would spoil his plans to use Fusan's and Nagasaki's massive airfields, and I don't think he's quite as prepared to use Takao's (I'm willing to take on one level 9 in proximity anyway). This plan would mean a quick reinforcing landing at Iriomote (6th Marine Div. is 100% prepped), giving me a second strong lodgment up here (and giving Erik another Allied base to worry over). Then DS & The Herd would proceed to lightly held Hainan Island. An amphib force HQ is prepped for Samah, which has a small garrison. Shortly thereafter, the armada would proceed to near Luzon to establish a strong base on one of the offshore islands (troops fully prepped).
The advantages to this plan are: (1) expedites move on high-value Manila; (2) should allow joint ops against Singapore; (3) would allow union of Death Star and RN Death Star; (4) Allies would land in northern Indochina or Kwangchoan/Pakhoi, isolateing enemy troops in Indochina/Thailand from China; (5) Allied army advancing into Thailand (10,000 AV) would move north, linking up with Death Star & The Herd army, the combination then moving into China in strength at about the time Russia activates.
There are the usual risks with this plan, but the noose aspect is lowered considerably, and landing in strength at Hainan/Kwangchoan/Pakhoi is nearly as advantageous from a ground-war perspective as the original plan, with considerably less risk.
Decision not made yet, and will be influenced heavily by what happens and what I see next turn. But I like that plan. So, the original tertiary objectives (Hainan and Philippines) may become the primary.