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Calculation of Final PH

 
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Calculation of Final PH - 8/11/2017 10:16:08 PM   
KungPao


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I am in the process of a late 1970's air to air scenario , and I noticed some very strange PH calculation

one example is here
quote:

11:31:41 - 11:31:41 - Weapon: AIM-9D Sidewinder #6715 is attacking 143rd Bomber Regt #1 (Su-24 Fencer B) with a base PH of 50%. PH adjusted for actual target speed (580 kts): 45%. Final PH: 45%. Result: 35 - HIT


this AIM-9D was fired at the distance of 900m
it doesn't go through the distance/altitude/Agility check just like the calculation below, which is a AIM-9D shoot at the same target 30s earlier (distance was about 3nm). Note the huge difference on Final PH

quote:

11:31:06 - 11:31:06 - Weapon: AIM-9D Sidewinder #6714 is attacking 143rd Bomber Regt #1 (Su-24 Fencer B) with a base PH of 50%. PH adjusted for distance: 49%. PH adjusted for actual target speed (580 kts): 44%. 143rd Bomber Regt #1 has nominal agility: 2.5, adjusted for altitude: 2.5. Agility adjusted for proficiency (Regular): 2. Aircraft has a weight fraction of 0.34 - Agility adjusted to 1.59. High-deflection impact (no effect on agility). Final agility modifier: -16%. Final PH: 28%. Result: 70 - MISS


at first I thought it is that the game use a different formula to calculate the engagement at close range, but later I found a AIM-7 fired at a target 7nm away had a very similar calculation

quote:

11:41:57 - Weapon: AIM-7E2 Sparrow III #6701 is attacking 143rd Bomber Regt #2 (Su-24 Fencer B) with a base PH of 55%. PH adjusted for actual target speed (477 kts): 50%. Sea-skimmer modifier: -5%. Final PH: 45%. Result: 43 - HIT



any explanation on why? Does this happen when the target do not see a missile is incoming?


< Message edited by KungPao -- 8/11/2017 10:17:46 PM >


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RE: Calculation of Final PH - 8/12/2017 1:46:51 AM   
kevinkins


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What was the PH calculation you were expecting and the result if that calculation met exceptions? Please define the problem. And to the Wood1's ongoing point, please attached a file so we have a baseline file to help you with. I have been at Command a year now and I can not decipher your post. BTW, what is a PH calculation?

Kevin


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RE: Calculation of Final PH - 8/12/2017 1:50:37 AM   
Dysta


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quote:

ORIGINAL: kevinkin

What was the PH calculation you were expecting and the result if that calculation met exceptions? Please define the problem. And to the Wood1's ongoing point, please attached a file so we have a baseline file to help you with. I have been at Command a year now and I can not decipher your post. BTW, what is a PH calculation?

Kevin



He means there are missing details of PH calculations at the first log when he try to replicate the missile hit. The second log marked all the informations while the first one just have the aircraft speed factor.

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RE: Calculation of Final PH - 8/12/2017 5:45:38 AM   
Dimitris


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quote:

ORIGINAL: KungPao
any explanation on why? Does this happen when the target do not see a missile is incoming?


Yes. When you don't see any evasion modifiers it almost certainly means the target aircraft was caught unaware.


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RE: Calculation of Final PH - 8/12/2017 7:45:31 AM   
Dysta


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Caught unaware had dodge penalty!? Wow, that is first time to know.

But how can I tell if the pilot isn't prepared to evade? Something like not in time to chaff or turning around fast enough?

< Message edited by Dysta -- 8/12/2017 7:46:27 AM >


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RE: Calculation of Final PH - 8/12/2017 11:57:16 AM   
Filitch


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Can craft fitted with MAWS be caught unaware?

< Message edited by Filitch -- 8/12/2017 11:59:58 AM >

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RE: Calculation of Final PH - 8/13/2017 5:58:32 AM   
ExNusquam

 

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IIRC, it's based on the OODA times in the DB entry. Without MAWS and with the recent cockpit visibility updates, catching aircraft unaware happens fairly often now.

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RE: Calculation of Final PH - 8/13/2017 11:58:32 AM   
SeaQueen


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Damn... you guys are starting to catch up with the engineers I work with...

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RE: Calculation of Final PH - 8/13/2017 1:02:14 PM   
Filitch


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quote:

ORIGINAL: SeaQueen
Damn... you guys are starting to catch up with the engineers I work with...

Maybe this is because some of us are also engineers

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RE: Calculation of Final PH - 8/14/2017 12:17:55 AM   
kevinkins


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Ok, does PH stand for Probability of Hit?

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RE: Calculation of Final PH - 8/14/2017 12:22:07 AM   
Cik

 

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yes

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RE: Calculation of Final PH - 8/15/2017 5:30:39 PM   
KungPao


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sunburn


quote:

ORIGINAL: KungPao
any explanation on why? Does this happen when the target do not see a missile is incoming?


Yes. When you don't see any evasion modifiers it almost certainly means the target aircraft was caught unaware.



quote:

ORIGINAL: ExNusquam

IIRC, it's based on the OODA times in the DB entry. Without MAWS and with the recent cockpit visibility updates, catching aircraft unaware happens fairly often now.


Thank you for the answer, it makes sense now. Glad to see the game mechanism cover this too.

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RE: Calculation of Final PH - 8/15/2017 8:54:35 PM   
KungPao


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quote:

ORIGINAL: kevinkin

Ok, does PH stand for Probability of Hit?


yes, and here is my speculation on how it is calculated. I think I have collected enough data.

quote:

8:48:22 - Weapon: Shafrir 1 #30 is attacking MiG-21F-13 Fishbed C with a base PH of 60%. PH adjusted for distance: 59%. PH adjusted for actual target speed (424 kts): 59.4%. MiG-21F-13 Fishbed C has nominal agility: 3, adjusted for altitude: 3. Agility adjusted for proficiency (Cadet): 1.5. Aircraft has a weight fraction of 0.33 - Agility adjusted to 1.2. Aircraft has 6% fuselage/structural damage - Agility adjusted to 1.13. High-deflection impact (no effect on agility). Final agility modifier: -11%. Final PH: 48%. Result: 29 – HIT



Final PH = Weapon Base PH - max{distance adjustment; target speed adjustment} – [A/C Agility at current Altitude x Proficiency coefficient<1> x Weight adjustment coefficient<2> x (1-damage%) x impact location coefficient<3>] – Sea skimmer modifier

<1>. Ace = ? , Veteran = 1, Regular = 0.8, Cadet = 0.5
<2>. I am curious on how the Weight Fraction are calculated
<3>. There are different impact effect, High-deflection impact = 1, head-on impact = 0.6?, forward-oblique impact = 0.7?, rear-oblique impact = 0.85? , tail-on impact = 0.5.


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