From: Miami Beach
warspite1 But the revolt happened in April 1941 when the pro-British regime was subject of a coup d'etat. Why would the British attack earlier i.e. why would they attack a pro-British Government? As for the assets required, the fighting in May to quell the revolt was undertaken with less than two divisions and a handful of aircraft. As for getting Syria 'out of the way' as said above, it could well be that they don't have to. If Spain joins the war then Hitler has paid the price, and if Hitler has paid Franco's price then the whole point of Vichy's existence, and Petain's gameplan, has exploded in his face. The writing for Vichy is now clearly written large on the wall in 6 foot high letters. And it doesn't make for pleasant reading.... If not, then things are unlikely to change anyway. The need to take out the Vichy regime in Syria (Operation Exporter) only became apparent when Vichy allowed its airbases to be used to assist the Iraqi uprising. I don't think any early attack on this Vichy territory would have taken place as Wavell just didn't have the troops to spare if he was going to go on the offensive against Graziani.
I don't disagree with anything you wrote.
However, there were signs in early '40 when the government changed...to pro-Axis...but not sure that was apparent at first. Later that Summer (fall of France) the Iraqi govt. worked closely with the Italians and something about the Grand Mufti, etc...surely the British knew something was up by then? I'm assuming the Brits either didn't know, and/or didn't have the assets to do anything about it anyway.
If the Axis had accomplished some major victories the second half of '40 in the Med (Gib, Malta), this could have counter balanced the negative things (Libya). The negative results the Axis experienced were a cause for another change in govt. in Iraq.
Originally I was responding concerning: "The Axis wont be getting any oil from installations in Iraq for at least a year as these will be destroyed". I'm wondering when these might have been destroyed? (not saying they wouldn't or couldn't be, just asking). The Brits may have to take out the pro-Axis Iraqi govt. sooner than they did, especially if Axis gains in the Med kept the pro-Axis govt. propped up.
Conflict with the unexpected: two qualities are indispensable; first, an intellect which, even in the midst of this obscurity, is not without some traces of inner light which lead to the truth; second, the courage to follow this faint light. KvC