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Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (Stelteck is welcome too)

 
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Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (Stelte... - 4/9/2017 11:36:00 PM   
HardLuckYetAgain


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Stalin winked at me causing this war, it is now time for revenge. Straight to Moscow to smack that S.O.B.

I agreed to allow Stelteck to do an AAR if he wouldn't post any material until turn 7 or later. It is now turn 7 and I see he began the AAR and he is free to post as much as he wishes on his AAR now. I also agreed to this since this will be my last operational game using this strategy, as such Stelteck makes the # 19 game using this strat. (Yes, I believe in the Scientific Method to have a good sample size) I will give insight on what the other 18 players did during their game while adhering to strict confidentiality on who those players are. (don't ask I wont tell you who the person was on any given snapshot) Unless they wish to claim the screen shot within this Memoir. Obviously you will know the snapshots on the current game with Stelteck ;-P You will find that History doesn't repeat itself, but boy does it rhyme.

Currently the best record for holding onto Moscow (not being surrounded/cutoff) of the previous 18 games is turn 11. By the way this is not a rush to just take Moscow although that is the intent. There is a balanced approach across the board to keep the Soviets on their toes. The current game turn with Stelteck is turn 7, I'm 6 hexes away from Moscow. We pause now for this commercial......


Sorry I have to get work done. I will fill in some of the things I do turn 1 along with the must haves. I will also post my opening I used in the previous 18 games and the reason I do it this way. Not all will agree & that is ok because we learn from each other :) With that I say ado until I have more time to work on this Memoir.






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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/10/2017 1:20:18 AM   
M60A3TTS


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quote:

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain
I agreed to allow Stelteck to do an AAR if he wouldn't post any material until turn 7 or later.


Good idea.

1. Preserves the scientific integrity of your data because...
2. Advice is too late to be of use to him.
3. lol

(in reply to HardLuckYetAgain)
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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/10/2017 2:26:55 AM   
HardLuckYetAgain


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quote:

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS


quote:

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain
I agreed to allow Stelteck to do an AAR if he wouldn't post any material until turn 7 or later.


Good idea.

1. Preserves the scientific integrity of your data because...
2. Advice is too late to be of use to him.
3. lol



What I was thinking, but if this game is an outlier then so be it ;)

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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/10/2017 2:45:40 AM   
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Being a United States Marine myself I begin with this statement;

Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics."
- Gen. Robert H. Barrow, USMC


To support the drive to Moscow I needed to glean the most efficient conversion rate to the "RED STAR" on the map. Here is my FBD movement for the 1st turn North.

I'm using 3 FBD's in the north and one in Romania

FBD3 rails and converts 1 hex 47 45. Then FBD 4 converts 48 45 to 51 44. Then FBD2 moves to convert 52 44 then finish its move in 53 44(the last hex isnt converted)

On turn 2 you will notice that 7 hexes get converted instead of the 6 hexes normal heading towards Riga. That is because of the way the program calculates distance from the last converted hex. So we take advantage of that on turn 2. You can also get this bonus on turn 4 converting 7 hexes but that one you will have to figure out on your own & where it is :)

*******NOTE********NOTE*********NOTE******** the area circled in black MUST, more precisely, the rail track marked in ORANGE in the black circle is to be clear of enemy units & no enemy units should be able to move into the rail hexes in that circle. If an enemy does your rail conversion will be delayed and that will hurt in future turns. Please note that your first turn attacks in this area should have a 100% chance of routing ALL units to the NW corner west of Riga.(the opener I don't count which will route to the town north of Kaunas but that is ok too) Practice until you figure it out, it can be done. If needed I can do a youtube video of it :)

Turn 3 the White area I marked does not get converted. 55 40 and/or 56 40 I believe should be a blue line but I'm too tired from work to go check.








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< Message edited by HardLuckYetAgain -- 4/10/2017 3:11:03 AM >


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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/10/2017 3:01:10 AM   
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Turn 1 showing area clean of troops and even if the enemy rallies they will not have sufficient movement points to interfere with the rail conversion, I hope ;-P




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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/10/2017 3:05:11 AM   
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Enemy in the North herded into the area west of Riga.




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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/10/2017 5:49:54 AM   
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If you can make the fall of Moscow in 1941 a certainty (and I have no reason to doubt your word), wouldn't that make the Bitter End victory conditions a sure win for the Germans?

Do you view my thinking below as flawed or correct?

If the Germans take either Leningrad or Moscow in 1941, that is equivalent to 40 or 50 VP pr turn as long as they hold the city. For the Soviets to catch up to that, I think they need to destroy about one extra German infantry division for each turn the Germans hold either city. And they need to do this for no losses of their own.

I realize you play with normal blizzard rules over mild blizzard as I did against Pelton. In that game however, it proved well beyond my skill set to take back Moscow in the winter of 1941/42 after it had fallen. I basically had nine turns to do it, and that was just not possible against a determined German defense. Not being able to retake the city in the first winter, means the Germans are likely to hold on to it for at least another year (meaning the Soviets need to kill off an extra 50-60 Infantry divisions to catch up).

If your strategy makes the fall of Moscow a certainty, the mild blizzard bitter end scenario is a sure win for Germany. The normal blizzard, bitter end rests entirely on the ability of the Soviets to retake the city (and hold it through 1942), in order for them to have a fighting chance of winning.

Please do comment.

< Message edited by Dinglir -- 4/10/2017 5:50:50 AM >


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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/10/2017 12:27:00 PM   
HardLuckYetAgain


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Dinglir

If you can make the fall of Moscow in 1941 a certainty (and I have no reason to doubt your word), wouldn't that make the Bitter End victory conditions a sure win for the Germans?

Do you view my thinking below as flawed or correct?

If the Germans take either Leningrad or Moscow in 1941, that is equivalent to 40 or 50 VP pr turn as long as they hold the city. For the Soviets to catch up to that, I think they need to destroy about one extra German infantry division for each turn the Germans hold either city. And they need to do this for no losses of their own.

I realize you play with normal blizzard rules over mild blizzard as I did against Pelton. In that game however, it proved well beyond my skill set to take back Moscow in the winter of 1941/42 after it had fallen. I basically had nine turns to do it, and that was just not possible against a determined German defense. Not being able to retake the city in the first winter, means the Germans are likely to hold on to it for at least another year (meaning the Soviets need to kill off an extra 50-60 Infantry divisions to catch up).

If your strategy makes the fall of Moscow a certainty, the mild blizzard bitter end scenario is a sure win for Germany. The normal blizzard, bitter end rests entirely on the ability of the Soviets to retake the city (and hold it through 1942), in order for them to have a fighting chance of winning.

Please do comment.


Oh, by all means there is "NO" certainty in taking Moscow. Nor a sure win. There are just "too" many variables. Now, there are things that the Germans can do to enhance their chances(i.e. maximize logistics, taking the box(will get to this shortly in later posts), maximize surrounded killed units(soviets have a lack of units in the early game and the Germans should stretch the Soviet line as far as possible. Make the Soviets choose or die trying). Having said that my goal has always been both Moscow(1st target) and Leningrad (2nd target) indirectly(so far I have been able to take both Moscow and Leningrad in the games that people didnt resign or have other issues). The straight on push to Leningrad, in my opinion, plays into the Soviet hand. I love keeping the fight in the open where the Soviets have fewer units at the beginning of the game and the Germans have better mobility. The south in my opinion has supply lines that are WAY too long to maximize potential of the German Army. Plus taking the Industry in the south is more of a Pipe dream against a good Russian player. Thus I play up North where my Supply situation is much better. As I quoted earlier, "Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics."
- Gen. Robert H. Barrow, USMC" hold very true here. Germans should play where their potential is maximized :)

Also, as you will see. I take all the Mountain units, except for the 99th Mountain unit north. Why, because with those units I make a Corps of German Mountain divisions for the Winter. I also put those units with a "great" leader. I'm sure you realize that where ever that Corps is is not going to be an easy win for the Soviets during the winter.

In closing, yes Dinglir if Moscow & Leningrad are taken by the German the game is pretty much done. You may have a chance if you get the all the industry out. But my strat has always been to have mass surroundings of Soviet units and grabbing of all the large Population centers.

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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/10/2017 1:06:24 PM   
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Just want to say a few words before this Memoir goes further.

I want to thank all the individuals I played up front. This memoir “is not” about me. It is about us and what we can learn from each other. Without your games as a fellow gamer none of this information would have been possible. Not to mention the comradeship that was made after such a game. Many of you I have now talked with on the phone. Some by pm's and emails. I have coached a few to try and help out with what little I know. Some of you we even started Skype conversations with the game up. This is what makes this game great, when you can become friends. And friends are what we need more of in the world.

Sincerely “Thank You” fellow gamers.


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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/10/2017 1:15:39 PM   
Stelteck

 

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The problem of the bitter end scenario, is that points are awarded relative to historical results.

It is not bad. But it need a historical balance, where the fall of leningrad is a very good german result, and the fall of moscow a german tremendous and glorious success, occuring only rarely. I'am not sûre we are in this situation today.




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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/10/2017 1:28:58 PM   
HardLuckYetAgain


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Stelteck

The problem of the bitter end scenario, is that points are awarded relative to historical results.

It is not bad. But it need a historical balance, where the fall of leningrad is a very good german result, and the fall of moscow a german tremendous and glorious success, occuring only rarely. I'am not sûre we are in this situation today.






True, but would it have made a difference on any scenario played? The crux of the Soviets is "manpower". Maximize the lose of manpower cities and it really doesnt matter how much industry the Soviets get out imho. I could be wrong but that is how I'm seeing it at the moment.

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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/10/2017 10:49:17 PM   
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Here is Army Group North. Nothing to see here just kinda mundane other than making sure the important rail hexes stay clear. Doh, I had one routed unit outside of the herd in the North, I sux at this game :(




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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/10/2017 10:54:47 PM   
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Kaunas area I herd into a nice little pocket. Because if you attack some of these units too much they will route out. We dont want that since they are what is for dinner on turn 2. Also note that a great many of the hexes will turn German to the east of Kaunas. So there is basically no way the Soviet can open this pocket.

My first turn is all about catching the most units as possible.






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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/10/2017 11:01:24 PM   
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Minsk area should have no pocket that is breachable. Many will not agree with this but there is a method to my madness. Also note I have gotten rid of most of the forts. I do this so by the end of turn 2 my Infantry is already moving to the front. Please note that the attacks on the Neman river are very tricky to get the units to not route out of the pockets. I also have to open this up for my motorized unit going south to grab more Russian goodies that you will see in the next slide :)




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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/10/2017 11:05:09 PM   
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Brest Litovsk area and accompanying units surrounded. I'm so hungry for Soviet fodder I go after the 2=4 infantry to make sure it doesn't get away.




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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/10/2017 11:14:23 PM   
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Now the Lvov Pocket(Northern section). An old AAR post I remembered had this on it but was leaky in a few spots and took time to kill the units that it had surrounded. I reworked the mechanism and came up with my own rendition of the pocket. Many will disagree with me on the use of "ALL" of 2nd Panzer in the south but I'm going for the "maximization" of units surrounded on the 1st turn. But bear with me since 2nd Panzer has an even better fate waiting for it in a few turns. It is my GO TO Panzer group.




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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/10/2017 11:15:38 PM   
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Lvov Pocket southern section.




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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/10/2017 11:17:35 PM   
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Romanian Border




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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/10/2017 11:18:51 PM   
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Planes destroyed 1st turn




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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/10/2017 11:32:31 PM   
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In a nutshell that is my first turn that I have been using since last March time frame. Ask any question you have and I will try to answer.


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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/11/2017 12:05:36 AM   
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Here is the "box" of operations I'm talking about for up to turn 7. you will notice a great deal of "very" nice terrain for the soviets. A Honey pot if you will to draw them too. That is where the Germans want them. You will also notice a great deal of very nice open areas too

Just a note that the terrain NW of Vitebsk is key to this strategy. I had (1) Soviet actually put a couple of units in here that made my work a bit tedious. Other than that most Soviets didnt bother much of anything in this key area. Instead the Pskov area was almost always stacked full of units. The next slide shows my typical setup NW of Vitebsk




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< Message edited by HardLuckYetAgain -- 4/11/2017 12:06:29 AM >


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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/11/2017 12:15:18 AM   
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NW Vitebsk units. Basically the units sit and fuel up waiting for the infantry to catch up. At least that is what the Soviets are thinking (I think they are thinking it at least but I don't know for sure) since I'm really waiting for the Soviet new arrivals (reinforcements) to show up. I'm fishing if you will for more units ;-} Normally I move our turn 3 or 4 depending on my Recon of the battlefield.(If anyone has played me I recon like mad) One person I waited until turn 5 once and quickly found out that wasnt optimal.




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< Message edited by HardLuckYetAgain -- 4/11/2017 12:17:03 AM >


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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/11/2017 12:26:11 AM   
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On turn 3 all pockets in the South are done (except for large Lvov pocket) and 2nd PZ Group heads for the rail network. Other units are heading there but not shown in the picture.




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< Message edited by HardLuckYetAgain -- 4/11/2017 12:28:19 AM >


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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/11/2017 1:13:16 AM   
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Turn 4 2nd PZ group arrives in the north with refit on and turn 5 moves out since my rail network for the north is going through Pskov and it has to be clear. (notice that I "always" put my PZ's in woods)




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< Message edited by HardLuckYetAgain -- 4/11/2017 2:16:03 AM >


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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/11/2017 1:36:38 AM   
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I almost always performed psychological warfare on my opponent when I started my drive towards Moscow. (That is if I didn't forget) I would make an Arrow with Recon pointing to what my objective was. How many of my opponents ever realized it I don't know but I always did an Arrow of different configurations pointing to my objective, "Moscow". Here are some.




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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/11/2017 1:37:12 AM   
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Here is another




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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/11/2017 9:39:04 AM   
ericv

 

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Kudos for the system you developed. You did take some from Silly's opening I take it?

Anyway, in my view, you are just conforming what has been readily apparent for a time now: The overpowered germans can win in 1941 if handled properly. The skill of the soviet player is totally irrelevant in that respect. He can do absolutely nothing about it, but hope for a mistake on the german part.

And you have got a lot of room for mistakes. All your wins are in 1941 I learned from your various reactions the last months? In case of whatever eventuality, you will still have 1942 to mop up scattered resistance.

Still congrats on developing that system! Well Done.






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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/11/2017 12:12:09 PM   
HardLuckYetAgain


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ericv

Kudos for the system you developed. You did take some from Silly's opening I take it?

Anyway, in my view, you are just conforming what has been readily apparent for a time now: The overpowered germans can win in 1941 if handled properly. The skill of the soviet player is totally irrelevant in that respect. He can do absolutely nothing about it, but hope for a mistake on the german part.

And you have got a lot of room for mistakes. All your wins are in 1941 I learned from your various reactions the last months? In case of whatever eventuality, you will still have 1942 to mop up scattered resistance.

Still congrats on developing that system! Well Done.








Thank you but it was not just me. It was all that have been involved in this game on how I came to my theory on the drive on Moscow. (which isnt a new idea just my take on how to do it) I can't speak for Sillyflower but he may have gotten the idea from MkTours for the opening. That is where I got my idea and I expanded on it. Here is the original link with MkTours opening. http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3487083

On your second statement I find to be pretty adequate based on my series of games that I started in March of 2016. A very well played German is "very" hard if not "extremely" difficult to handle. As another has said in the past the Soviet has to decide where to stand firm, which the Soviet can do in one area, and give ground in all the other areas. The Soviet has to realize what they can give up and what they must hold AND the amount of forces to commit to each front. So yes, the Soviets walk the blade of a knife against a really good German player the summer offense.

Can this drive on Moscow be countered? Sure this can be countered. That is the reason I have this up so others can see this strat and come up with a counter. I know what to do to counter it and I'm sure a great many others smarter than me can too.

Again I thank you for the complement but it is all of us in this community that contributed. As such I thank everyone for their contributions without that contribution this would not have been possible.


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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/11/2017 12:22:37 PM   
sillyflower


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From my AAR vs Brian:

"In the South, the 'norm' seems to be to create a secure Lvov pocket and to try to pocket a few other units.

However, given the ability of my opponent, I thought something else was needed. I got the idea from a young OKH planning officer who called himself Major TDV -surely not his real name but his work showed great promise (see Brian G's AAR versus TDV)."

Sending all the 2PzG armour south does make it a lot more effective though .

< Message edited by sillyflower -- 4/11/2017 12:30:33 PM >


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RE: Unternehmen Taifun Memoirs, by HardLuckYetAgain (St... - 4/11/2017 4:09:37 PM   
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Synopsis

Turn 4 - 6 would normally have Soviet surrounded in the middle of the box.

Turn 5-6 Following by one turn (or same turn if I'm running late) after the middle area Soviets getting surrounded the 2nd PZ group attacks around Pskov causing another encirclement.

These two events coupled with the 1st turns encirclement's lead to the collapse of the Soviet Army in the Center. With less units Moscow becomes easier to surround then take

Turn 7-11 is a foot race for 2nd PZ group along with the other PZ groups to cut off Leningrad. Leaving one PZ group to head south for Tula/Vorzenah

Normally Leningrad gets cut off during this time frame during turn 7-10 doing the right hook route to the east of Lake Ilmen


The last event normally brings on a surrender of my opponent with both Moscow and Leningrad in jeopardy.


Again, thank you all for reading and thank you to all the players I played. Please note that I was going to show some of the pockets in the middle but decided against it. Also not showing the pockets around Pskov for the same reason. I'm still considering a few snapshots of Moscow being surrounded but need to think more on it.

< Message edited by HardLuckYetAgain -- 4/11/2017 4:19:41 PM >


_____________________________

Space we can recover; time never

Napoleon

(in reply to sillyflower)
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