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Decomposing The Turn's Combat Results - 12/26/2019 7:41:44 PM   
topeverest


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One of the things I like to track is how successful my attacks are. Below is a tracker for this turn.

I succeed in about 88% of the important deliberate attacks. That ratio seems to hold pretty constant.

196 total attacks of all kinds

Air based casualties inflicted this turn
3098 men
270 guns
79 AFV - 17% of total losses (and I dumped much of my airpower this turn / it was small)

This also helps me better understand when I need to soften up a defensive position with a preliminary attack.







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< Message edited by topeverest -- 12/26/2019 8:28:23 PM >


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Cross of IRON! - 12/26/2019 7:57:43 PM   
topeverest


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CROSS OF IRON

That takes me back!

quote:

ORIGINAL: AlexSF

Great AAr, thx for the work and thumb up to your Axis opponent who keeps playing that far. I know by experience that unfortunately it's rare!



< Message edited by topeverest -- 12/26/2019 8:27:30 PM >


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Destroyed Units - 12/26/2019 8:03:46 PM   
topeverest


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Here is that information with some commentary. Note Russian units are all voluntary disbands this combat season

85 total Axis divisions destroyed or surrendered since start of game.



quote:

ORIGINAL: xhoel

Looking forward to your next update topeverest. Could you please post a screenshot of the destroyed unit for the while campaign so far?

Cheers!







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< Message edited by topeverest -- 12/26/2019 8:29:30 PM >


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Losses Review - 12/26/2019 8:37:02 PM   
topeverest


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here are the losses - I am encouraged by these stats.






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Germany Attrition - 12/26/2019 8:47:09 PM   
topeverest


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This is an important measure for me. to keep any hope of getting to Berlin by the last turn, I am actively attacking all enemy armor units I can find to deliver 500 AFV losses target per turn without killing my own AFV's. I am targeting cutting the enemy AFV in half to 5K in ten combat turns.






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Airpower - 12/26/2019 9:00:12 PM   
topeverest


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As cited at the top of the turn, I had to do a major shuffling of the Red air force

88 of 381 air units in airbases / on map ad to be recirculated to the national reserve, as their morale was below 50, where I draw the line for a refit. I beat another 52 units below 50 this turn in my air war against the Enemy. I do not have sufficient reserves for this batch of refits and will have to hold some lower morale units until the end of the combat season.

A few more notes
1. I hadn't yet removed the bulk of my night supply missions, which I did this turn
2. I also cycled out half of the recon units, as I had to many
3. I pushed all fighters bombers to bombing roles if they weren't already
4. As neither of us have done much strategic bombing or night bombing, I reduced the total number of units in night combat missions

By my count I increased my air ground combat power by 53 squadrons, which was my goal. I will continue to closely monitor air losses to determine if I need to do more changes.






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< Message edited by topeverest -- 12/26/2019 9:02:53 PM >


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RE: Airpower - 12/27/2019 11:45:29 AM   
Telemecus


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Are your fatigue levels high? If not it might be an idea to decrease the percentage needed to fly?

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Plans for the final combat season - 12/28/2019 1:27:08 AM   
topeverest


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As per our game victory conditions, we agreed that Russia had to get to Berlin by historical date to have tactical victory.

As this isn't possible, I am working to capture Berlin and knock out Hungary, the last axis minor, by the last turn. I will claim a Pyrrhic victory if I can do that.

With this being my first play through late war, I did some math to help me decide tactics
1. I expect 19 clear turns in the summer season / until the end of the game
2. Germany has about 250 units
3. In Hungary, Russian forces are 2-3 hexes from breaking out onto the Hungarian plains. from there it is 8 hexes to the easternmost surrender city and 1 hexes to either Budapest or the other victory city, keeping in mind the Reds have less strength in the 2 southernmost exits. With this in mind, the existing force pool in the south is sufficient to knockout Hungary by the end of the game.
4. It is an average of 35 hexes from where I expect the MLR to be at the start of the summer season to taking the Berlin hex. that is an average of 2 hexes gained per turn required from anywhere from the Carpathians to the Baltic. This is an advantage in that the enemy will have to defend 30 hexes for most of the season. This shrinks to 17 hexes once Berlin is close
5. So how to attack...

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RE: Airpower - 12/28/2019 1:28:17 AM   
topeverest


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I have played around, I had them at 25 for a while, but I had my air force poorly designed as noted above. I will try 25 in ensuing turn to sew what I get

quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

Are your fatigue levels high? If not it might be an idea to decrease the percentage needed to fly?



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RE: Turn Map - 12/28/2019 3:45:44 AM   
M60A3TTS


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This front looks like an organizational horror story. Why are there so many STAVKA units? You have three Baltic and three Belorussian fronts and four Ukrainian fronts, not to mention a Caucasus and Transcaucasus Front. That's twelve in total. Surely with the admin points you have, you should be able to get the organization where it needs to be.

Soviet historical deployments around the current front lines give a pretty clear picture of what you can model the force around. Quantities are really the main variable.

3rd Belorussian Front is tasked with subduing East Prussia. If you need more forces than the CP will allow in this area, 3rd Baltic Front should by itself be adequate.

2nd Belorussian Front should push on towards the northern Vistula and Bromberg. It also needs to work in conjunction with 1st Belorussian Front to flank Warsaw from the north if there are any weaknesses in the Vistula River positions in this area.

1st Belorussian Front covers the front east of Warsaw and spreads out enough for 1st Ukrainian Front to move on the Krakow-Breslau axis.

2nd and 3rd Ukrainian Fronts you can manage as you see fit, although one of them typically is heading in the direction of Dresden-Prague.

4th Ukrainian Front focuses on Rumania and on to Hungary.

The Caucasus and Transcaucasus Fronts can be developed as you see fit. Historically, they of course had no part to play as the battle lines were this far west.

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RE: Turn Map - 12/28/2019 4:29:25 AM   
M60A3TTS


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RE: Turn Map - 12/29/2019 10:06:43 PM   
petertodd

 

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M60A3TTS--Since you don't advocate building so many tank corps, would you just disband excess tank brigades at some point (presumably after ZOC blockers no longer needed)?

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RE: Turn Map - 12/31/2019 12:02:49 AM   
M60A3TTS


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It is simple math that you need 84 tank brigades for 28 corps. If you retain another half dozen tank brigades just in case you want an option for a couple extra corps, that's fine. So anything above 90 tank brigades I would eventually disband or in some early instances just let them sit in a depleted state to keep empty fort values from decaying.

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RE: Turn Map - 1/1/2020 12:15:09 PM   
topeverest


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Thanks for the motivational swift kick in the organizational back side -

I spent two hours during my last turn to get far more organized. Still more to do but that is me being lazy for sure.

quote:

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

This front looks like an organizational horror story. Why are there so many STAVKA units? You have three Baltic and three Belorussian fronts and four Ukrainian fronts, not to mention a Caucasus and Transcaucasus Front. That's twelve in total. Surely with the admin points you have, you should be able to get the organization where it needs to be.

Soviet historical deployments around the current front lines give a pretty clear picture of what you can model the force around. Quantities are really the main variable.

3rd Belorussian Front is tasked with subduing East Prussia. If you need more forces than the CP will allow in this area, 3rd Baltic Front should by itself be adequate.

2nd Belorussian Front should push on towards the northern Vistula and Bromberg. It also needs to work in conjunction with 1st Belorussian Front to flank Warsaw from the north if there are any weaknesses in the Vistula River positions in this area.

1st Belorussian Front covers the front east of Warsaw and spreads out enough for 1st Ukrainian Front to move on the Krakow-Breslau axis.

2nd and 3rd Ukrainian Fronts you can manage as you see fit, although one of them typically is heading in the direction of Dresden-Prague.

4th Ukrainian Front focuses on Rumania and on to Hungary.

The Caucasus and Transcaucasus Fronts can be developed as you see fit. Historically, they of course had no part to play as the battle lines were this far west.



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RE: Turn Map - 1/1/2020 12:18:53 PM   
topeverest


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this is very helpful

quote:

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS





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Turn 197, March 22, 1945 - 1/1/2020 2:52:24 PM   
topeverest


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One more campaign turn this season

VP 118 - no change
Trucks 138 (245) - this is bad. One more turn of pushing needed. reorganized
AP Usage - spent 300 points realigning Fronts, not completed, but things much better
Units Destroyed - 3 SS panzer divisions
AFV Losses - 500 a side
Air Losses

Germany begins what probably is a conversion to defense in depth and pulls most of her armor into a central pool around Warsaw

1. 4th Ukrainian front is perilously close to Zilau (44.99) and breaking onto the Hungarian plain between the Bihor and Carpathian mountains. Those forces are poised to knock out Hungary in the final season. Axis forces have held onto forward mountain positions at the Russian border north and east of there and are in grave danger of being cut off in the coming combat season. So far no indication he will retreat these forces.
2. Axis pulled all the armor out of the Lublin sector and pushed it up to Warsaw area. The remaining infantry defenders began retreating in good order to new positions a few hexes west. Red forces advanced 2-3 hexes and reached Lublin but could not take the city.
3. East of Warsaw, the enemy similarly pulled out what armor it could but lost those 3 SS panzer divisions caught in the Russian blitz that collapsed the pripyat marsh salient. The disorganized and weak units were pushed further along towards Warsaw an average of three hexes. It is now an average of 6 hexes to Warsaw, but he body of German armor is east of the city, ensuring that Warsaw will remain a German property through the final mud season.
4. The northernmost campaign to reach Koeinsuburg drove for the coast between the Pragel and Primanti rivers and technically cut the supply line to 16 stranded units still trying to retreat south and west of K. Note Germany no longer holds Memel and cannot evacuate units by sea from the pocket. Germany has massed a second set of armor south of the Pregel and 4-6 hexes east of Koenisburg just south of the tenuous cut that pockets 16 Axis units. The stage is set for an epic German armored counterattack to save as many units as possible, but it wont be easy for them. He can get 3 units out of the pocket without difficulty or expenditure of AFVs, but the remainder probably are lost.
5. Red forces spent about 330 APs to reorganize, which effectively cleaned up the area from the Carpathians to Brest Litovisk. a bit more reorganization is still needed, including filling out the remaining Fronts to right size the STAVKA command, which is leading the Koeinsburg campaign

< Message edited by topeverest -- 1/11/2020 6:07:01 PM >


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Map - 1/1/2020 7:03:59 PM   
topeverest


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I blew up trucks this turn. Nearing Koeinsburg and Lublin and Romanian plains.

put much armor back in reserve

Reorganized to gain truck and attack bonus

German army worn down - 25 routed units visible on map






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< Message edited by topeverest -- 1/1/2020 7:05:38 PM >


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koeinsburg - 1/1/2020 7:11:32 PM   
topeverest


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Here is a detailed view. None of the combats were material this past turn, as he has pooled his armor across the river.






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WARSAW - 1/1/2020 7:23:10 PM   
topeverest


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Here is a detailed view of the combat zone and central armored reserve.






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Prod - 1/1/2020 7:30:11 PM   
topeverest


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NO big red warnings here.

Saved too many armament factories

We didn't do too much strategic bombing - look at supply fuel and oil.





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< Message edited by topeverest -- 1/1/2020 7:31:39 PM >


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RE: Prod - 1/1/2020 8:03:55 PM   
Telemecus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: topeverest
Saved too many armament factories


There was an old consensus that you only needed 300 arms, and EwaldvonKleist did some research to show that it could go down to 280 or even lower https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4646699

I know the Soviet side of the 2x3+ team game I am in have been showing their thinking on evacuation lately - and I sort of came to ask the question what does "too" many arms mean?
Does it mean
i) Too many as you could have used the rail capacity to move troops in 1941 instead?
ii) Too many in that supplies are going to it and not to supply the army. Although I have seen you have used points to reduce arms production and you can use rail capacity to re-evacuate for similar results.

If not for these two reasons then I would think it is still good to evacuate as many arms as possible. You do not need them in 1944/45 - but how many arms factories you do evacuate does say how quickly the Red Army can rebound in 1941-2. Too few and it will take a long time.


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RE: Prod - 1/1/2020 10:53:48 PM   
topeverest


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Thanks!

SO much more to learn about this game than I can absorb in my first play into late game.

I have played hundreds of wargames and designed several in my prior life. This is an outstanding simulation!

quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

quote:

ORIGINAL: topeverest
Saved too many armament factories


There was an old consensus that you only needed 300 arms, and EwaldvonKleist did some research to show that it could go down to 280 or even lower https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4646699

I know the Soviet side of the 2x3+ team game I am in have been showing their thinking on evacuation lately - and I sort of came to ask the question what does "too" many arms mean?
Does it mean
i) Too many as you could have used the rail capacity to move troops in 1941 instead?
ii) Too many in that supplies are going to it and not to supply the army. Although I have seen you have used points to reduce arms production and you can use rail capacity to re-evacuate for similar results.

If not for these two reasons then I would think it is still good to evacuate as many arms as possible. You do not need them in 1944/45 - but how many arms factories you do evacuate does say how quickly the Red Army can rebound in 1941-2. Too few and it will take a long time.




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turn 198 March 29, 1945 - 1/11/2020 6:06:03 PM   
topeverest


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END of COMBAT SEASON (30-35 hexes to Berlin...)

VP - 117 Lublin falls
Trucks - 126 / 200 - still limping along
AP usage - Disbanded about 70 support units, mostly AA and AT. Moved one army to North Caucuses Front
Units Destroyed - none (12.3 enemy divisions surrounded near Koeinsburg)
AFV losses - 145G / 493S enemy armor mostly off the MLR
Air Losses - 108G / 344S

Germany pulled back along the main MLR north of the Carpathian mountains and developed defenses in depth with almost no armor engaged. Where possible in the advance range of Red units, minor engagements occurred with Germany avoiding major AFV and attritional losses

1. The main armored thrust to Koeinsburg reaches the outskirts of the city but does not take the city. The 12.3 enemy divisions that could not escape past Koeinsburg have been surrounded and will be disposed of soon
2. Russian armor in the center opposite Warsaw brushes aside infantry and reaches the main defensive perimeter of the sector and city by the remaining mobile forces of the Wehrmacht
3. In eastern Hungary between the Bihor and Carathian mountains, the Reds reach the Hungarian plains but cannot advance onto them. The stage is set for the summer seasons advance

< Message edited by topeverest -- 1/11/2020 6:07:54 PM >


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Season End Map - 1/11/2020 6:09:26 PM   
topeverest


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Here is where the season ended.






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< Message edited by topeverest -- 1/11/2020 6:16:18 PM >


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Turn 203 May 3, 1945 - 3/15/2020 7:35:27 PM   
topeverest


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Glacial pace continues
Clear turn - next turn mud

VP - 114 Koeinsburg falls without a fight
Trucks - 110K / 136K (doing better)
AP usage - disbanded about 20 more units this turn mostly divisions and brigades
Units destroyed - none, but 14 more German divisions surrounded and captured in Memel Pocket during mud season
AFV losses - 288G / 587S
Air Losses - 510G / 1182R]

During mud season Russians focus on reorganization and rail builds while placing armor / mech in three locations. A pincer north and south of Warsaw and eastern Hungary. Germans build defense in depth and deploy two armored shields, at the Baltic and around Warsaw. First turn in May 1945 was clear, and the Reds unleashed a full fury attack

1. At the southernmost, Reds test the mountain passed nearest Yugoslavia and make little or no progress.
2. In the plains of eastern Hungary, where hard fighting all winter pushed through the Carpathian and Transylvanian Alps, Russians committed 2 guard armies and 2 armor armies in a push NW to capture Nyiregyhasa but are stopped about half way there by expertly placed armor that slowed the Reds down enough to prevent breakout
3. North of the Carpathians and south of Warsaw, Russian infantry armies engaged in linear fighting against a less-strong enemy pushing 2-3 hexes towards Krakow
4. A Pincer battle was attempted around Warsaw and failed. Enemy deployed an armored shield around the city. Remaining Russian armor was split into two bundles and attacked about 30-40 miles north and south of the city. The southern Pincer ran straight into the SS armor divisions and fought desperately to drive the enemy back to the Vistula, only 2-3 hexes. 2 SS armor divisions have been surrounded, but the pincer failed. With the mud coming back next turn, the enemy will be able to extricate itself without undue losses. A note on the northern pincer, which attacked between the armor shields guarding the Baltic and Warsaw. Since I did the southern attack first, I was already aware that the attack would not work, so I merely drove due east as far as possible before pulling back a bit for defensive operations in the event that the weather in clear.
5. nearest the Baltic, the Reds through the victorious Leningrad guard armies and artillery against very strongly held armored shield, pushing it back 10 miles



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Turn Map - 3/15/2020 7:36:24 PM   
topeverest


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Here is the map






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RE: Turn Map - 3/20/2020 9:07:02 PM   
M60A3TTS


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I always like to see your updates, even if they are a couple months apart.

The issue you face is your eastern drive to the Vistula with the forces north of Warsaw are facing the prospect of a dead end. Your opponent can simply fall back to the western bank of the Vistula and then it's good luck trying to get across.

That is why any successful push into Germany depends on you flanking Warsaw from the south. Once that is done, it gives you both banks of the Vistula and you can transfer forces down from the north. Then it is a matter pushing towards Bromberg and clearing more of the Vistula and making that river much less relevant. It is not so much an issue if you arrive near here towards the Fall of 44 if by chance the river freezes enough for you force your way through. That is not an option here. Now the key to taking Warsaw is getting to Lodz. That essentially makes any defense of Warsaw untenable. Re-assess where you can force the issue in an attack somewhere from the south of Warsaw to Krakow, bringing down mobile troops from the north if you have to.

For Hungary, I'm not sure if you found the non-mountain hexes near Ungvar which represents the Dukla Pass by which you can get armor storming through, not that you have any in the area. If you had some it might have helped tip the balance at Nyiregyhasa. That is essentially what the Soviets historically did.

Good luck and keep fighting.


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RE: Turn Map - 3/20/2020 9:26:49 PM   
DownNOut


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Thanks for doing the AAR, it has been a good read. I am waiting for WITE2 to get into the game.

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RE: Turn Map - 3/21/2020 10:33:57 PM   
topeverest


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Thanks for the advice - Posting the next combat turn. some progress made enemy deployed what I call the Warsaw Armor Shield. VERY effective

< Message edited by topeverest -- 3/21/2020 11:14:28 PM >


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Turn 205 May 17, 1945 clear turn allows combat - 3/21/2020 11:13:11 PM   
topeverest


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Weather forecast Mud

VP = 113 -1 (Nowy Sach falls to combat)
Trucks = 122 / 163 better than I hoped.
AP usage = disbanded another 5 corps/divisions this turn. minimal reorganization
Units destroyed = none but 18 more German divisions pocketed
AFV Losses = 287G / 560S - keeping about average, Will update pools / show they are low
AIR Losses = 562G / 1217 ME 262's SHRED Russian air formations - new tactics tried

German tactics evolve. Axis deploys the Warsaw Armor Shield defense using the Windy Vistula river to great advantage. Germany also unleashes ME262 in mass air combat, wreaking havoc in Red air formations and sending the Red air force reeling looking for new tactics. Necessarily, the German tactical decisions left opportunities to exploit weaker zones through the broad front doctrine, which was used to satisfactory effect.

1. In the southernmost theater, Axis begin to abandon westernmost Romania and the Transylvania & Bishop mountains in order to consolidate their MLR and offer the longest life to Hungary troops.
2. On the eastern plains of Hungary, 2 Russian armor and 2 Russian guard infantry armies fight several pitched battles and cross the Berettyo river driving NW before turning due W and beginning the long drive to Budapest. Red troops elect to bypass Nyireghasa 30 miles to the north. German armor presence is token here; so progress should be good in knocking out Hungary
3. North of the North Carpathian mountains in the vicinity of Krakow and the west bend of the Vistula, Russian massed infantry formations with artillery but no armor and attacked due west to steady effect. German infantry unsupported by armor could not sustain the repeated attacks and gave way under that pressure. Nowwy Sach fell and Krakow is in sights
4. For about 200 miles north-south of Warsaw, the Germans deployed a strongly held and well positioned armor shield with infantry support. red forces in strength tried to pry open the southern reaches of this defense and were unsuccessful except at heavy and slow cost. After a period of study, it became clear that there was no easy way through this well setup defense. A few other test attacks were made all with the same bloody and unsuccessful results; as a result, Stalin decided to park the large southern armored force that was intended to get around the Warsaw armor shield to the south, placing it on rails for short refit during next turn's mud. No further attempts were made to attack the shield, but artillery was brought up should a siege be needed.
5. After a period of several hours of intense study to include waves of air recon, I decided that there was a window of opportunity to crack the enemy MLR north of the Warsaw armor shield and south of the Bay of Danzig, perhaps 50 miles from the coast. The opportunity as I saw it was to use guard infantry armies to attack strong infantry positions north and slightly NW of the northern end of the Warsaw armor shield to get to lighter held areas. From there the northern armor force with drive NW to Danzig and pocket some divisions (not west to Berlin). This was successful, but I overextended my supply line in the process. I decided it was worth the gain. Probably the most sophisticated attack I have made in the game. The owner of many stupid mistakes this game, Id like to believe that this indicates that I can begin to think more broadly about how to use troops. Certainly a journey, but good to start it.
6. A note on the emergence of mass ME262s. I will post separately on this element. Suffice to say that airframe can be unbeatable in certain types of combats, and the mere presence of a 262 squadron in a large air battle will spell doom, or has over the last several turns.



< Message edited by topeverest -- 3/21/2020 11:17:17 PM >


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Andy M

(in reply to topeverest)
Post #: 750
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