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NK's fifth nuke test - 9/9/2016 6:11:56 AM   
exsonic01

 

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This would be the firm evidence that the NK already secured standardized, possibly 90% weaponized nuke.

I really do think that SK and US need "Israel solution" against NK, with enhanced / guaranteed deterrence force. But politicians think in different way. Well, one more reason to finish the my current mod development asap. I really wish to crush them.

China always talks they will control NK and they will join the UN resolution agreement, but everyone knows that is a lie. They do something but only to show to others, like high school kids do. China actually supported fuels, TEL vehicles, machine part and trucks, and anti-defector campaign. And claims everything is false evidence manipulated by US and SK. They are not changed at all since 1950.
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RE: NK's fifth nuke test - 9/9/2016 6:21:47 PM   
TheWombat

 

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Well, North Korea's nuclear program is indeed a matter of grave concern for the USA and, perhaps more so, the people in the region. Yet, there are a limited number of viable options in dealing with Pyongyang. They've always been able to stymie any physical responses, that is, military responses, by essentially holding Seoul hostage. Any attempt to destroy the North's nuclear capacity--something that, given the history of these sorts of things, has only a limited chance of success, I'd argue, and a very high chance of failure or rather negative unintended consequences--could quite possibly result in shelling and rocketing of Seoul, a city of many millions of people which is in range of a fair amount of North Korean weaponry. Sure, you could, eventually, destroy the artillery and rocket launchers firing on Seoul, but not before you'd incurred a lot casualties, and a lot of political damage to the government of the ROK.

Would Pyongyang actually do this? No one knows, and thus, no one can afford to take that chance. So, barring a full-on North Korean invasion of the South, or a direct nuclear attack on someone, I seriously doubt you'll see anything as robust as you might like. It's one of those situation where there are no good strategies, only some that are less terrible than others.

As for the PRC, I don't pretend to know what Beijing wants or is doing, other than I am pretty sure their number one concern is not having a dysfunctional collapsed state on their borders with tens of millions of refugees and a vacuum leading to a capitalist, western democracy like the ROK right directly on their doorstep. I truly don't think they like the Kims any more than we do.

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RE: NK's fifth nuke test - 9/9/2016 7:52:03 PM   
exsonic01

 

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If we do nothing, then what? What if they succeed to develop fully weaponized and minimized nuke? What if they depoly tactical/strategic nuke in ICBMs and SLBMs? What if their SF units armed with "nuke backpacks" penetrate into RoK and Japan? At that moment, situation would be already quite deteriorated, that there would be literately zero meaningful methods to solve the issue. Considering the goal of DPRK regime is unification of Korean peninsula under their control, the level of threat to RoK and US will be enhanced, such as SCUD test with real nuke or "nuke-backpack" tests, to turn the tide in their favor. After then, more worse scenario would be possible, such as pollitical surrender of RoK, and nuclear armament of Japan. It would be better to be the hostage of conventional munitions than weaponized nukes. Things should be done before they secure serious capabilities to threat RoK and US, and other allied nations.

Main policy of PRC to DPRK is considering DPRK as "barrier" against US and US-friendly nations. Supporting DPRK matches well with their plan, because, in the long term, they want to wipe out all US-friendly influence from their "first island chain" based on their offshore doctrine (http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/plan-doctrine-offshore.htm), and possibly secure the "second island chain". That is plan A for PRC, and is the reason behind all the fuel / weapon / vehicle supplies to DPRK. If PRC really wish to vaporize DPRK nuke program, they could threat DPRK by cutting off literally all supply chains (remind that DPRK become an island without PRC support) inducing them starve to death. Or they could assassinate DPRK scientists. But those extreme measures are not even considered. Instead, they even strengthened DPRK military capability (http://www.cnn.com/2012/04/20/world/asia/north-korea-chinese-truck/ and http://www.janes.com/article/59282/north-korean-kn-06-test-confirms-similarity-to-chinese-and-russian-fourth-generation-sams) Meaning of those actions are clear - PRC wish to support DPRK, both in conventional and strategical ability. The contingency plan of PRC regarding DPRK, which would be the plan B based on the assumption of the fall of DPRK regime or losing control to DPRK, is dividing DPRK like post-war Berlin by US, RoK, PRC, and Russia. Anyway, it is true that PRC is responsible for current nuclear capability of DPRK.

< Message edited by exsonic01 -- 9/9/2016 8:03:12 PM >

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RE: NK's fifth nuke test - 9/9/2016 8:29:45 PM   
TheWombat

 

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Sure, "things." What "things?" No one, I think, will gainsay that the North's nuclear capability is something to take seriously. And everyone in our neck of the woods pretty much wants to do something. But again, what? In a purely utilitarian analysis, there is far more bad attached to any direct action than there is good, especially when you take into account the limited likelihood of a real success, if you define success as eliminating North Korea's nuclear program. That, I'd argue, can only be done by, well, eliminating North Korea. And, no, they aren't going to sit back and let that happen. As wretched as the North's posturing and threats are, the calculus shows that that's a better situation than full-on war on the peninsula.

I agree that China has been, shall we say, ambiguous and ambivalent in its restraint on Pyongyang, and for the reasons you describe. But, just as with the PRC's position in the South China Sea, no one is going to be able to budge them from their desire to have both a buffer in North Korea and a true sphere of influence as they see it. Beijing, as I understand it, has a problem with North Korea. They need the state to stay intact, and hostile to the West, yet not _too_hostile, so that it provokes its own destruction. They also are very, very nervous about nukes on their borders, especially those controlled by a less than predictable and probably unstable leadership. So what to do? All the steps you outline would self-defeating, because all the North would have to do is implode and voila, tens of millions of refugees, a power vacuum, and the ROK on their border in all likelihood. Pyongyang has been blackmailing everyone forever, and is not likely to change, because they have the trump cards.

Personally, it galls me to no end to have to allow the North as much leeway as we do, but until someone shows me a viable alternative that is not worse than the status quo, I think we have to continue to do pretty much what we are doing. Pressure Beijing to find a way to ease the Kim's out, bolster the ROK, isolate and condemn the DPRK, and prepare for the worst if necessary.

My own plan would be for the PRC to offer the entire leadership cadre of the DPRK the equivalent of dachas on the Black Sea, somewhere in China, with all the cognac and cigars they want, in exchange for a demilitarized but Chinese-dominated North Korea that would still be a buffer but would cease to be a military player on the peninsula.

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RE: NK's fifth nuke test - 9/9/2016 9:25:24 PM   
exsonic01

 

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Of course, one need to prepare full scale war. First, increase the RoK forces readiness to DEFCON 2, build up the firepower, and execute the "Israeli solution". This could be the surgical strikes to nuclear facilities, or assassination of key scientists and engineers. Head of DPRK would not be the target at the first stage, but if DPRK reacts rapidly and violently, then second stage should follow to eliminate DPRK command structure, whether bombardment or assassination. If they dare to fire across the DMZ against RoK / US forces in full-readiness condition, let them try. The operation for Korean Reunification would be followed.

PRC has not that much problem with DPRK like you mentioned. If the DPRK nuke is so problematic and induce potential instability to China, PRC had thousands of chances and ways to wipe out DPRK nuke program, or force DPRK to give up since 1995. It would not that difficult for them, considering the influence of PRC on DPRK. PRC could just cut down all supply lines to DPRK, inducing them starve to death. Or plan a coup against Kim, set up very-pro-China puppet government which would be far easier to control. UN agreements? Look what China did in Tiananmen square and in Tibet. They just don't care. Fact is, China never tried any useful and meaningful actions to stop DPRK nuke. Only some "shows" to make evidences to claim "Look, we are trying but Mr Kim is so crazy", which is a total lie. They are not nervous about DPRK nukes, they just wish to looks like it, since their true intention is clear up all US-friendly influences from "first island line" which includes RoK. This matches well with DPRK's goal, reunification as Red Korea. DPRK nuke would be the perfect way to politically press the RoK government, and perfect tool in their game table. At least PRC & DPRK would success to significantly weaken the US influence from RoK, induce the victory of left parties / pro-DPRK parties in RoK election, which is not impossible story at all. PRC wish to strengthen the DPRK, and will not give up DPRK. If DPRK fall, they will try to make a puppet government, at least in the northern part of DPRK, to keep the "buffer zone" between RoK and China.

The major concern of your idea regarding PRC is that you are trusting China too much, regarding PRC like other nations. They are very good liar. This is old tradition of Soviet and other communist nations. Look at them now. They claims that they are "officially" follows the UN resolutions, and they are cutting their support to DPRK but the regime is out of control. On the other hand, what really happening is, they strengthened DPRK military capabilities by supporting fuels, vehicles, and missiles.

One can pressure Beijing, but it will fail. "Promise" of exchange would be in vain. Only possible chance would be the moment of great economic regression of China. It would be the perfect opportunity to press them. But at current stage, it would be useless.

To me, personally, doing nothing and waiting for or looking for better viable option is quite similar with France and other European nations right before WW2. Everyone says that Kim is not that much crazy to try something stupid, or Kim's regime is not that much ready to try adventure. But oh yes, he is crazy enough and dangerous enough to break the balance in his favor. His ultimate goal is total grasp of korean peninsula as Red Korea, and he will never give up. That is the true intention of Kim and his uncle Wong.



< Message edited by exsonic01 -- 9/9/2016 9:49:36 PM >

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RE: NK's fifth nuke test - 9/10/2016 3:31:12 AM   
kevinkins


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Apparently Kim is addicted to the luxuries of life. Depriving him of those and rewarding him with access to those will control his behavior. He will never risk his position at the top (via military action) of his kingdom as long as the wine and women keep flowing. And his subordinates are scared to death of him and also held in check (i.e. will not overthrow) by access to the same luxuries. But China calls the shots due the the overland border. They control whether Kim's scotch and Viagra run out. His access to anything in the 21st century. So sad for the millions of people stuck there = human puppets, human shields.

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RE: NK's fifth nuke test - 9/10/2016 12:11:48 PM   
TheWombat

 

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Heh, I trust China about as far as I can throw it. I don't think that's a function of communism, though; there's a long long history of China being a shrewd, opportunistic, and ruthless player in Asia, and the fact that the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries saw them sidelined pretty much doesn't change that. Many things about the PRC, like their control of information, their control of many aspects of daily life, their opacity in dealing with outsiders, are deeply rooted in the intellectual, philosophical, and historical traditions of China, not in Maoism. And I do think there is some truth to the idea that many outside of China think they are eventually going to be "just like us," without understanding that China has no desire to be like the West in many ways, and finds the idea sort of insulting.

Yet, I think they are rational actors. They have goals, they have certain levels of risk they are willing to take for certain gains, and they have points beyond which they won't be pushed. These limits are different than ours, however. Sure, they support the DPRK because they're being blackmailed in a way as well. By their calculus, though, the disorder North Korea can cause outweighs the possible benefits of cracking down on Pyongyang, as I read it. And no, they aren't that concerned about the fate of South Korea at all, for a variety of reasons. But they're about the only partner we have in trying to get a leash on Kim.

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RE: NK's fifth nuke test - 9/10/2016 11:36:25 PM   
exsonic01

 

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@kevinkin // His ultimate target is not just his little kingdom, he's major objective is entire Korean peninsula. With nuke, he can try more adventures options without risking his position. At least the chances of successful "threatening" campaign will be increased, and he will rob ice cream cake, sundae, and a steak from RoK, which will sustain his kingdom more longer. That's how DPRK survived so far. It is time to break this endless downspiral once and for all. It would be too late if they get minimized + weaponized nuke. China basically will support DPRK's position and Kim's campaign for the Red Korea, because it matches well with their goal - remove US influence from first island line. China has really long term plan, to field their fleet in Pacific Ocean until 2050. Defeating hostile factions within first island line is their first step.

@TheWombat // Such naive and gentle approach would greatly support the DPRK and PRC's position and strategy. That is exactly what they want. Make us trust them, and get the "agreements" or "promises" and backstab. How many times DPRK and PRC bakcstabbed US and RoK after talks, promises, agreements, and resolutions regarding DPRK nuke since 1995? Numerous. They always get the agreement, and do something to just to show, and get the hamburger. Then, some time later, they get ICBM. New sanctions and talks, next promises, they do something to show, and get chocolate cake this time. Then they test the SLBM. Next cycle, they get pizza and wine for "promises", then they conduct nuke test. New sanctions and talks...... Let me ask, how may times this BS cycle should be repeated do you think? After they deploy weaponized nuke backpack to Japan and RoK? Don't you see it? They are sneaky bastards, and to them, the agreements and promises are just piece of toilet papers, like Cersei Lannister did to Eddard Stark. They are totally untrustworthy actors. DPRK is being blackmailed? I'm really surprised one could describe the situation like devils advocate. Look, who is blackmailing neighbors? It is DPRK, threatening neighbors with dangerous toys and nuke tests, sending spies to other nations and selling drugs, fake dollars to get more money for Kim's luxuries.

And your mention about characteristic of China is totally wrong. Intrinsic ideology of China is "Sinocentrism", quite arrogant and china-centered mind. It is like China will play the king, and other "small" nations should follow and serve the "king" nation. You need to understand why almost all neighbors of China doesn't like China, and regard China as potential enemy. Did you ever read Chinese papers - China Daily and Global Times, official party-aligned papers - regarding DPRK nuke and attitude of us, RoK, and DPRK for once? Did you ever read how they described the Philippines and us regarding South China Sea? Chinese-want-to-be-westernized? They-are-going-to-be-just-like-us? Sounds like an fantasy-world-of-peace to me. I would say, any attempt to try "western democratic society" or "western freedom movement" in China would face bloody consequences - Tiananmen Square 1989. Let's watch what will going to happen in Hong Kong after Umbrella Movement.

I have lots of Chinese friends here, and they are mostly good people and good neighbors. But that never means the PRC government and their "party" is the same. The "party" will not gonna change. Look how they are making "President Xi" to "Emperor Xi" right now.

< Message edited by exsonic01 -- 9/11/2016 12:06:45 AM >

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RE: NK's fifth nuke test - 9/11/2016 2:25:11 PM   
kevinkins


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<@kevinkin // His ultimate target is not just his little kingdom, he's major objective is entire Korean peninsula.>

You mean he in insane? Any move outside his little diabolical world will be squashed. I think he is perfectly happy in his lot in life. Rattle a saber here and their for internal political reasons is what Kim is up too. If the world can live with a nuclear India, Pakistan and China, an easily contained North Korea by themselves in not a threat. The real problem is the Iran-North Korea partnership. China just sits back and watches. They don't want any part of an expansionist N Korea. Think of the refugee situation. The Chinese are patient and want a controlled, conformable, and tidy expansion of influence into the Pacific/India Ocean shipping lanes. Korea is far too messy for them.

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RE: NK's fifth nuke test - 9/11/2016 2:49:35 PM   
TheWombat

 

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I surrender. exsonic01 has a very clear idea of the world and nothing is going to change it, I guess. Okie dokie.

I've still not heard, from anyone, anywhere, a viable plan for dealing with North Korea, different from what we're doing now, that doesn't inevitably result in a worse outcome than we're getting. Unless you're arguing purely from a deontological position of good and evil and damn the consequences, right now I remain convince we have to suck it up and do what we can to mitigate the nastiness.

Maybe others are willing to sacrifice the South Koreans in order to make a point, but I'm not. In the end, remaining vigilant and promising swift retribution seems to me to be best we can do.

And China? Of course they are Sinocentric. We're US-centric. There's fundamentally zero difference between the PRC's desire to turn the South China Sea, say, into a Chinese lake, and our desire to keep the Gulf of Mexico an American lake.

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RE: NK's fifth nuke test - 9/11/2016 5:11:34 PM   
kevinkins


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<There's fundamentally zero difference between the PRC's desire to turn the South China Sea, say, into a Chinese lake, and our desire to keep the Gulf of Mexico an American lake.>

Given that the PRC is a totalitarian regime who is in direct competition with the US, I would much rather have the USN in control critical shipping lanes than the PRC. China, Russia et. al. are very insecure peoples, and the US should keep them that that way. I would not cede the south china sea to China just because on its proximity to the mainland.

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RE: NK's fifth nuke test - 9/12/2016 12:58:28 AM   
Zap


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The option to eliminate just the NK leader I see as a stabilizing action for the world.

_____________________________


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RE: NK's fifth nuke test - 9/12/2016 8:03:46 AM   
exsonic01

 

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@ kevinkin // In short term, you may right. He will not gonna attempt any crazy adventure. But in long term, they will try to achieve their ultimate goal - Red Korea, and they will never give up. Remind that the DPRK is not a communist nation, it is a kingdom. One advantage of such dynasty system is that they can make very long term plan. They will going to try to secretly support some lefty / pro-NK parties in SK, and will try to increase their influence on RoK, one by one, slowly but steadily. It is possible that they maybe going to find some opportunities in the middle of political turmoil of RoK in the future, like what happened in Ukraine when Pro-russia party and UA nationalist party clashed. That is what Kim's grandpa and dad tried as well. Your mention about China is right, but they still want Red Korea as well in the long term, because it matches well with their goal - secure first island line and field the fleets in Pacific Ocean. If DPRK falls or become really uncontrollable, then PRC would try puppet government in NK region, at least in part of it.

@ Wombat // I'm really surprised and disappointed about the way you see the world. Did you ever read a official-party-aligned paper of PRC? Did you ever read how they described about us, and other allies? Did you ever tried to figure out why Vietnam, SK, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, India... all of them regard China as potentially hostile nation? There are tons of fundamental differences between PRC and us. Basically PRC is totalitarian nation under the very very repressive and semi-dictatorial leadership (it is becoming total dictatorial these days) and it is really funny how you described we are same with them. You should talk with some Chinese defectors in US. They will try to punch you after read your post. I think I wasted my time a lot. Shame.

@ Zap // Well, any other leadership can take control after Kim. Something should be done to stop their nuke program before it is too late.

< Message edited by exsonic01 -- 9/13/2016 12:17:35 AM >

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