quote:That looks extremely unlucky. I think you meant 5/43 as your running date though, as 5/44 and 0/31 definitely look like a bug or no supply on base (which I'm sure is not your case).
I never said that the repair rate for 2+ years in advance R&D factories was zero, I said almost non-existence. As shown by my 0(31) for a 6/45 historical date plane. So even after getting within the 2 year window (it is 5/44) I still do not have a single one repaired.
I set some size 30 factories from start in my last vs-AI stock Scenario 1, and by Feb 5, 1942 that is only 2 months Sam (9/45 arrival) gets 0,2,3 repaired, while Grace (12/44) gets 0,0,1,2,3. No other late planes for me.
quote:Those are really very predictable as engines always repair 1 factory per day, so it's only about your willingness to expend supply on expansions. Some of the engines are no brainer to advance and even get full bonuses to all R&D because of early arrival date (Ha-45). Others are trickier but still easily manageable to get into production on time if you not sweat about engine bonus, because engine research starts much earlier (practically from Jan 42) than for airframes. Ofcourse you still need to make choices early because you can't accelerate everything at once
One thing that was not mentioned is you ALSO need to expand the engine factory. No good to get the planes early but no engines . So they need to repair (although they do repair faster) and start producing before the planes are ready. So another cost to Japan.
quote:Care to point those out in a few words?
You have some erroneous assumptions above that you will want to correct.
While all is known about how R&D points are generated (and I assume 30 size factories always with 1 point per day w/o engine bonus and 2 points with), repair algorithm seems more obscure.
This is the only thread with R&D repair estimations where guys refer to actual simulations done to gauge the formula for R&D repair. Results in a nutshell mean that between the date of starting research and scenario date of arrival of the plane R&D Factories repair for 63% of available time on average, hence leaving 37% to actual research. Size of the factory does not matter timewise
With my example above staring R&D repair on A7M2 in 8/12/41 with arrival in 1/10/45 (it's wrong, is 9/45 in stock 1, but this does not change the conclusions) adding 63% means 4/5/44. Which is exactly the month I inferred for my calculations using Obverts Ki-95 experience. Woohoo!
I let the scientist in me out for a while, built myself a quick R&D simulator using repair probabilities mentioned in the thread I linked, so here is some interesting resulting eyecandy for you all. Results from several simulations of R&D from gamestart using different number of factories involved on an airframe available in 10/45. Illustrates nicely the law of diminising returns.
The actual ingame probability of R&D repair might be somewhat different, need to test it myself sometime in the future. But the mechanics is the same, with hyperbolic decrease in repair ability for far-off planes.
Surprisingly for me, luck does not play as much a factor as I expected. While first fully repaired factory can arrive with wildly varying timing, actual plane arrival is pretty tight
< Message edited by GetAssista -- 9/16/2015 12:06:08 AM >