The presentation by the CSBA that spawned this thread, at some point, outright stated that, while there had been relatively few air-to-air kills since 1991, the majority of those had been achieved with BVR missiles.
Well, I would say the CSBA article stated that most of the kills where with BVR missiles, but it did not state the majority were BVR kills. In other words, they may have been BVR shots made in WVR conditions.
I would also echo what others have said in regards to using historical data (see Air Warfare in the Missile Age for more info): the vast majority of those kills were "clubbing baby seals" conditions. I.E.: the target had no AEW, no or very poor onboard radar, no ground control, no RWR , etc.
The simple fact is there hasn't been peer-peer BVR engagements of any real quantity, and trying to draw conclusions by extrapolating the current historical data has pitfalls.
Personally, I think the F-35 will be quite capable of "clubbing baby seals" from BVR, but I would be leery of relying upon it solely as an air superiority fighter. This is fine for the US, since we have Raptors to do the air superiority work. But if I was Canada, or Norway, or Australia, well...