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Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08

 
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Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/3/2015 3:57:44 PM   
loki100


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These ramblings are an attempt to update Walloc's excellent evacuation guide and try to rethink Soviet economic planning under the 1.08 patches.

First in terms of specialist factories, I think the obvious changes are:

Aircraft

I've come to a new view about level bombers. All things being equal, you will have supply problems and if so these are hard to make substantial use of. My view is now to do minimal evacs of the Il-4 and Pe-2 factories at Moscow. I think the Pe-2 factory at Kazan will produce all you really can use.

The lend-lease A-20 that you gain a lot of in 1942 can do as your LB of choice, not least this won't cost you supplies for production.

Other planes have changed their upgrade paths and this has some bearing.

So the LaGG-11 that starts at Taganrog in the end becomes a Yak-3. I'm not sure that the intermediate LaGG models are of much use but the end point is valuable. Make sure you get 1 point out before the Germans arrive.

The La-GG factories are now all in the north around Gorky. Can't see any reason to evac these and then they become the rather nice La-5/La-7series.

Yak-1, there is a batch of these around Saratov/Engels. One factory is in the open fields of Tatischevo and this might be worth moving very early so it is safer in case of a serious German attack in 1942.

The advice to move the Il-2/10 plants from Voronezh early is valid. Overall much less lost production and a short gap in your numbers in 1941 is not really that significant.

At Moscow, as before get out the Li-2/Li-2VP, Il-10, Pe-2r/Pe-3 as you can. All valuable.

A big change is the two Mig-3 factories. You now need these for 50% of your long term Il-2 production but be careful over how you move them. Not only do the factories convert to Il-2 production in Jan 1942 but they also reset to 1 regardless of existing size. On that basis unless you are going to lose Moscow leave them till Jan 42 and then move a single factory of each. The Mig-3 is useful in 1941 so no point losing production.

As before you can leave the Su-2s at Kharkov.

Armour

Leningrad – the KV factory is essential for the later game IS series. The T-50 becomes another source of T-34s so both need to be pulled out but can be relatively limited. Leave the BA-10 as it is of no long term use.

Kharkov – make sure you pull something. Ideally as much as possible but you will have T-34 shortages in 1942, surpluses in 1942-3 and then shortages (as your losses mount) late game in any case.

Moscow – T40 as before the main use of this is as the basis for the Su-76. Move a little late in 1941 (unless Moscow is at risk).

But the main change in 1.08 is strategy around the generic factories.

My personal view is to try and rescue every truck factory I can. To retain operational movement in 1942 and 1943 you need both domestic production and lend-lease.

However, the main change is in terms of the relationship between HI and arms pts. With lower production multipliers you need more HI. How much is hard to guess, but some ratios and observations:

In 1941 each operating HI unit will produce 500 supply. Each Arms pt unit will take around 40-45 supply units to in turn produce 5 arms pts. Overall it looks a bit as if production takes up around 35-40% of total supply production and arms production seems to be around 40% of this total.

So my understanding is if all you wanted to do was use HI to produce arms pts, you need a ratio of 1HI:4AP. Any more AP cannot be operated in the long term. But you need say 60% of all production going to the army (ammo, unit supply, digging defences), so the ratio between HI and AP has to be lower. In effect 40%*40% of all supply production feeds into AP, so that means of the 500 supply from each HI point, you can only use 80 for arms pts – in other words each HI factory can only supply 1.6 Arms Pts factories.

On that basis, my guess is you need to evacuate a ratio of roughly 1 HI:2 AP (being cautious here as arms pts are so important).

Equally you may need to squeeze other production aspects to maintain supply to key production. I personally am starting to set air production in 1941 at around 70%. The 1941 planes are not that great and the VVS is severly hampered in 1941 in any case - this is another reason not to want to save too many Pe-2/Il-4 ... there is no point producing what you can't use so this is a prudent long term saving of both rail cap and industrial production.

At some stage, operational or production need will mean you need to run down your supply stocks. But in the long term you need to plan on a balanced budget.

The unknown question is how much HI/Arms Pts are needed to supply an effective army. My rough guess at the moment is 200 HI is a safe position. Much less and you'll need to make tricky choices, much more is probably unrealistic in PBEM given other demands on rail capacity in 1941.

Any comments/obvious mistakes?

(sorry this became a bit of an essay)

< Message edited by loki100 -- 4/3/2015 6:13:42 PM >


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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/3/2015 5:19:17 PM   
loki100


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To develop this a little, the attached shows the location of all the factories you may want to move. This helps as it is both the overall size of your industry and the ratio of HI:Arms Pts that you are aiming for. I've decided to try and keep the 1:1.5 ratio between HI and arms pts that you start with, this implies (with the 1941 multiplier) a production of around 100,000 supply per turn.






Attachment (1)

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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/3/2015 8:30:58 PM   
morvael


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Great work!

Remember that if one will evac too much ARM and not enough HI, one has now the option to reduce ARM output to conserve supplies.

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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/4/2015 3:43:53 PM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: morvael

Great work!

Remember that if one will evac too much ARM and not enough HI, one has now the option to reduce ARM output to conserve supplies.


aye thats true and the ability to juggle various production lines is a great safety net.

I guess what is in my mind is that if I'm right and the Soviets need to rescue around 69 of the at risk HI (I think thats too prudent but I don't think you can cope with much under 190) that has serious implications both for the allocation of rail cap and how you organise your defences.

So my instinct is you want to get the volumes of extraction as near to right as you can as you have such much more narrow margins than under 1.07?

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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/4/2015 4:54:38 PM   
morvael


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Yes, it's better to evac as much as possible and in the correct proportions.

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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/4/2015 11:34:13 PM   
M60A3TTS


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There is no reason to save IL-10s. They don't arrive until 1945 and if you saved your IL-2s, you should have thousands of them in your spare pool by then.

Li-2VP you don't need. It is a level bomber that produces few in number and can be replaced by many other types.

Pe-3 is a fighter bomber which is the closest thing the Soviets have to an Me-110. Not a terribly useful plane IMO, similar to the Hurricane II.

You will survive at 130-140 HI. It's the lack of trucks which is the Achilles Heel of the Red Army until Summer 1943. Note as of 1/43 even if you saved all your truck factories, it only accounts for less than 20% of your production due to the low multiplier, with Lend Lease providing the vast majority.

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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/5/2015 12:42:47 AM   
Denniss

 

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remember the Pe-3 upgrades to Pe-3bis, the only soviet night fighter in game.

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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/5/2015 1:28:34 AM   
M60A3TTS


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Who uses night fighters in the game? Seems like a niche thing and relatively trivial.

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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/5/2015 11:34:13 AM   
Mehring

 

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Given the current ineffectiveness of port/industry bombing, not much point though set to day, Pe3s have very good range IIRC.

I'm also unclear as to whether any fighters set to night actually intercept partisan supply missions, never seen kills increase in such units. Asked this before, but has anyone got evidence of they do?

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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/5/2015 11:57:03 AM   
Peltonx


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mehring

Given the current ineffectiveness of port/industry bombing, not much point though set to day, Pe3s have very good range IIRC.

I'm also unclear as to whether any fighters set to night actually intercept partisan supply missions, never seen kills increase in such units. Asked this before, but has anyone got evidence of they do?


I use my 110's for night intercept, but never have looked into how it works.

How much supply is wasted by SHC on them from 42-45 as they can cut rail lines, but by June 42 the rail net is a web that simply cant be cut.


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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/5/2015 12:02:12 PM   
Peltonx


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quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

To develop this a little, the attached shows the location of all the factories you may want to move.
This helps as it is both the overall size of your industry and the ratio of HI:Arms Pts that you are aiming for.
I've decided to try and keep the 1:1.5 ratio between HI and arms pts that you start with, this implies
(with the 1941 multiplier) a production of around 100,000 supply per turn.






Great stuff, but what are the target #'s for Germany?

In past games HI was not an issue.

From my exp before 1.08 if Germany was able to destroy 50 armament pts it did have some effect.

In all the games I was able to destroy 100+ armament points I never lost.

I guess my question to you is how many HI does Germany need to take to have an effect on production?

how many AP does Germany need to take to have an effect on production?

Great thread.



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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/5/2015 12:09:28 PM   
Peltonx


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quote:

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

. It's the lack of trucks which is the Achilles Heel of the Red Army until Summer 1943.
Note as of 1/43 even if you saved all your truck factories, it only accounts for less than 20%
of your production due to the low multiplier, with Lend Lease providing the vast majority.


Trucks are one area I really focus on from turn 1 on as Germany.

I try and pocket every little tank or cav unit or at least route them every chance I get.

As Germany you want and try and delay the steam roller as long as possible.

hexes to Berlin/turns to Berlin = ratio


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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/6/2015 7:25:55 AM   
Gabriel B.

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mehring

I'm also unclear as to whether any fighters set to night actually intercept partisan supply missions, never seen kills increase in such units. Asked this before, but has anyone got evidence of they do?



yes. At least the ones equipt with radar do .

However not one single night harasment raid by il -2, lost a aircraft, even if they were regulary intercepted by ju-86c.
might be due to low exp in german nightfighters .

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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/6/2015 10:31:26 AM   
Mehring

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mehring

I'm also unclear as to whether any fighters set to night actually intercept partisan supply missions, never seen kills increase in such units. Asked this before, but has anyone got evidence of they do?



yes. At least the ones equipt with radar do .

However not one single night harasment raid by il -2, lost a aircraft, even if they were regulary intercepted by ju-86c.
might be due to low exp in german nightfighters .

Thanks. Was there any battle report or did you just see that kills had accumulated?

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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/6/2015 1:45:45 PM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mehring


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mehring

I'm also unclear as to whether any fighters set to night actually intercept partisan supply missions, never seen kills increase in such units. Asked this before, but has anyone got evidence of they do?



yes. At least the ones equipt with radar do .

However not one single night harasment raid by il -2, lost a aircraft, even if they were regulary intercepted by ju-86c.
might be due to low exp in german nightfighters .

Thanks. Was there any battle report or did you just see that kills had accumulated?


in my game with SigUp there were fairly frequent night actions between my U2s and his Me110s but in that context I was flying niggly night harassment attacks.

never saw any air interception of my partisan resupply missions, most losses seemed to be operational and/or flak.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mehring

Given the current ineffectiveness of port/industry bombing, not much point though set to day, Pe3s have very good range IIRC.

I'm also unclear as to whether any fighters set to night actually intercept partisan supply missions, never seen kills increase in such units. Asked this before, but has anyone got evidence of they do?


I use my 110's for night intercept, but never have looked into how it works.

How much supply is wasted by SHC on them from 42-45 as they can cut rail lines, but by June 42 the rail net is a web that simply cant be cut.



Wonder if the delayed entry of FBD5 might change this logic? Esp in the Ukraine its going to be hard to have much more than a single repaired line up to Kursk/Kharkov and perhaps a single link between AGC and AGS.

could make partisan attacks more of a problem if they were active in the right sectors?

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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/6/2015 3:47:57 PM   
Mehring

 

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Wonder if the delayed entry of FBD5 might change this logic? Esp in the Ukraine its going to be hard to have much more than a single repaired line up to Kursk/Kharkov and perhaps a single link between AGC and AGS.

could make partisan attacks more of a problem if they were active in the right sectors?


Ukraine is the easiest to keep partisan free given that rail lines seldom run close to woods/swamps. Will increase chances slightly but even in AGN/C, suffering a critical line cut in 41-2 was always a bad luck scenario rather than predestined.

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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/6/2015 5:12:39 PM   
Denniss

 

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I'll probably change FBD 5 to leave again in December 42. Removing FBD 1 may cause too many problems for the AI.
Historically FBD 1 became part of Wehrmachtsverkehrsdirektion Südost in late October 42.
Historically FBD 5 was disbanded in April 43 and recreated as Wehrmachts-Verkehrsdirektion Italien in July 43.

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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/6/2015 10:15:03 PM   
Peltonx


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mehring


Wonder if the delayed entry of FBD5 might change this logic? Esp in the Ukraine its going to be hard to have much more than a single repaired line up to Kursk/Kharkov and perhaps a single link between AGC and AGS.

could make partisan attacks more of a problem if they were active in the right sectors?


Ukraine is the easiest to keep partisan free given that rail lines seldom run close to woods/swamps. Will increase chances slightly but even in AGN/C, suffering a critical line cut in 41-2 was always a bad luck scenario rather than predestined.


I am basicly running just 3 lines east with the 4th connecting the center and north in 2 places so AGN and AGC cant be cut, then late summer tring to connect AGC and AGS.


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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/7/2015 12:59:13 AM   
Mehring

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton



I am basicly running just 3 lines east with the 4th connecting the center and north in 2 places so AGN and AGC cant be cut, then late summer tring to connect AGC and AGS.


Me almost the same. AGN FBD shifted on to laterals after Pskov, so I still have 4 lines but AGN now moves no faster than 1 hex per turn. It works so far, but I haven't yet hit mud or any partisans at all.

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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/7/2015 5:56:39 AM   
Gabriel B.

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mehring


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mehring

I'm also unclear as to whether any fighters set to night actually intercept partisan supply missions, never seen kills increase in such units. Asked this before, but has anyone got evidence of they do?



yes. At least the ones equipt with radar do .

However not one single night harasment raid by il -2, lost a aircraft, even if they were regulary intercepted by ju-86c.
might be due to low exp in german nightfighters .

Thanks. Was there any battle report or did you just see that kills had accumulated?



Just kills , the nightfighters were spread acros airbases to reduce time to intercept and night interception pushed to 300% .

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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/7/2015 6:18:54 AM   
morvael


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I think it's very hard to launch night interception as compared with day interception. I will look whether partisan air supply can be intercepted.

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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/8/2015 6:00:08 AM   
morvael


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I can confirm this. Night CAP has lower chance to happen, partisan CAP even less, but it can happen. But do not count on it, the chance can be as low as 1% in addition to other night CAP reductions, so while daily CAP is nearly 100% guaranteed, intercepting supply flight to partisans practically does not happen. As I understand 1-2 planes flying low and quiet were hard to intercept without full radar coverage, huge area to cover and especially due to the fact they they didn't seek any trouble by bombing German positions.

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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/8/2015 6:54:25 AM   
Mehring

 

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Makes sense. Thanks.

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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/8/2015 6:03:48 PM   
Peltonx


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I guess my question to you is how many HI does Germany need to take to have an effect on
production?


Looking at your chart Germany needs to bag 34 HI to have an effect. Not many


How many AP does Germany need to take to have an effect on production?


Looking at your chart Germany needs to bag 70 AP to have an effect.



< Message edited by Pelton -- 4/8/2015 7:08:25 PM >


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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/8/2015 6:08:09 PM   
VigaBrand

 

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I calculate with 30 HI at least (if more, the soviets get supply problems in 1942 because of the reduced modifiers).
Arm I think is the same number that you described in the older versions. With the new modfiers, soviets must evac some HI and so you get more Arm in your advance, which made the impact.
If I remember right, you sad 60 Arm at least.

EDIT: And evac starts now in T3 not in T2, so soviet should fight to gain time for the evacuation.

< Message edited by VigaBrand -- 4/8/2015 7:09:32 PM >


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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/8/2015 6:09:45 PM   
Peltonx


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quote:

ORIGINAL: VigaBrand

I calculate with 30 HI at least (if more, the soviets get supply problems in 1942 because of the reduced modifiers).
Arm I think is the same number that you described in the older versions. With the new modfiers, soviets must evac some HI and so you get more Arm in your advance, which made the impact.
If I remember right, you sad 60 Arm at least.



From my exp 50 has an effect and 100+ is game set match so 70 is in the middle.

Looks about right.


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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/8/2015 6:27:32 PM   
VigaBrand

 

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In the south (Rostow last city) are 124 Arm, 54 HI and 25 Vehicle.
This is very much. You should save Leningrad, too and some special vehicles.
The rest is calculation. You must save 20 HI, this is 200.000 Railroad points (means 1,5 turn).
Everybody wants to save the the 25 vehicle. This means 150.000 Railroad points (means 1,2 turn).
You can start at turn 3, so at T6 you can save all the important HI and vehicle, but only in the south.
You can nearly evac 18 Arm per turn. The germans must reach Rostow and to get an big impact. The numbers from 200 HI and 300 AP are the soviet plan, so you should take more.

Edit:
My super secret industry plan.



< Message edited by VigaBrand -- 4/8/2015 7:31:15 PM >


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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/8/2015 8:21:51 PM   
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Nice map!

I think it is instructive to approach the evac issue from the aspect of what should be written off, in addition to the what should be moved aspect. Having a write-off plan can save some troops since you don't have to defend these locations.

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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/9/2015 7:13:18 AM   
Gabriel B.

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: morvael

I can confirm this. Night CAP has lower chance to happen, partisan CAP even less, but it can happen. But do not count on it, the chance can be as low as 1% in addition to other night CAP reductions, so while daily CAP is nearly 100% guaranteed, intercepting supply flight to partisans practically does not happen. As I understand 1-2 planes flying low and quiet were hard to intercept without full radar coverage, huge area to cover and especially due to the fact they they didn't seek any trouble by bombing German positions.


looking trough old save files

By the end of the war ,I had 9280 air victories, the night fighter force had 98 , most succesfull unit was 3 staffel of/ njg 100 equipt with Do-217n -38 air kills.

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RE: Factory Evac and Industrial Planning in 1.08 - 4/9/2015 7:42:16 AM   
821Bobo


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quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

I think it is instructive to approach the evac issue from the aspect of what should be written off, in addition to the what should be moved aspect. Having a write-off plan can save some troops since you don't have to defend these locations.


+1
Currently I am struggling with what to write off. Especially when the industry modifier have changed. I am to lazy to calculate it

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