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RE: Turn 66: 17 – 23 September 1942

 
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RE: Turn 66: 17 – 23 September 1942 - 9/13/2015 6:45:36 PM   
swkuh

 

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Thanks much...

(in reply to chaos45)
Post #: 331
RE: Turn 66: 17 – 23 September 1942 - 9/13/2015 11:17:32 PM   
MattFL

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: chaos45

Loki-First off your stacks are deceptively strong...most of your CV is coming from Fortifications.

If he organizes the attack right with Panzer units in the assault having alot of engineers none of your Fortification CV will count in the battle. So really all those stacks against the right assault forces are only 20 or so CV.


Yet this sometimes doesn't work both ways. I had an attack with 7 soviet engineers against level 1 fort and in the battle fort was 1 > 1 not 1 > 0. Yet get attacked by GHC with 2 Engineers and fort 3 and Fort goes 3 > 0. Really weird.

quote:


Mattp- yes massive CV swings on assaults defense- alot has to do with how well prep'd the hex is and how good the leaders are more than anything. Lots of disruption/fatigue massively reduces final CV calculations. Is why having the best Soviet Generals in Key positions is critical. As it mitigates the German leadership edge in at least a couple locations. Next is bomb the German spearhead units every chance you get, and keep them in a Zoc if you can all the time. Dont let them get free turns of rest if they are trying to push assaults. Also if you leave them un- zoc'd you are losing out on german attrition.


Well, there is of course no way to check the fatigue of the enemy, but one would think fatigue would be even for both. To me though one of the biggest difference is that just in general attacking forces bring more support than defensive forces.

quote:

rrbill- yes Alt- CV just shows u what the effective CV should be with command and control, and leadership taken into effect.


I actually played the GC ALT CV a few times and really liked it, but stopped because no one else plays it.




(in reply to chaos45)
Post #: 332
RE: Turn 66: 17 – 23 September 1942 - 9/13/2015 11:35:49 PM   
chaos45

 

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Agreed German engineers seem much more effective- think its probably because they are 70+ experience and Soviet Sappers are only 50ish experience for through 1942.

As to fatigue its effects are also based on experience is my understanding from reading the rule book- so Germans even with higher levels of fatigue are less affected than Soviet units due to higher/lower experience difference.

Its why 1 million more German infantry on the battlefield is so much more telling than 1 million more Soviets as its a ton more combat power/CV due to the higher experience/morale rating of the Germans especially once Soviets drop to 40.

Actually started an Alt CV game with my friend I wish he would continue lol....what I dont like is the numbers are much more accurate and Im used to the printed CV in the normal and making a judgement to attack or not based on intuition and since the numbers as so much more accurate in alt CV I fail more often lol.....as Im used to okay 1.5 should be good enough despite what my counters show in normal mode lol.

(in reply to MattFL)
Post #: 333
RE: Turn 66: 17 – 23 September 1942 - 9/14/2015 2:06:29 AM   
M60A3TTS


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I'm seeing no modified values for German units that often start a turn in a level 1 fort at 10%. That's not using alt-cv so using it may be the way to go.

< Message edited by M60A3TTS -- 9/14/2015 3:06:55 AM >

(in reply to chaos45)
Post #: 334
RE: Turn 66: 17 – 23 September 1942 - 9/14/2015 11:13:25 AM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mattp

It's interesting, because on the surface looking at GHC counters and CV vs Soviet Counters/CV, it would seem impossible to break the line. If the Germans can get 50 CV per hex and attack from 2 hexes (not easy at this point), they can barely muster 2:1 odds against a Soviet 50 CV stack. I realize that there are other factors, use of reserves etc... But what I've been seeing in my game in some combats is German CV going from 1000 to 2700 and soviet CV going from like 800 to 600 during the actual resolution. So by assumption this would imply that the initial attack is being made at far less than the 2:1 odds and yet still successful. I also notice that tons of support and air is committed by the attacker and far less air and support is committed by the defender. But with such massive inflation in CV for the German attacks, how can one possibly defend regardless of the defensive CV stacks you build...


In the main you rarely see much of a gain for the defensive side (sometimes up 50% but most likely down a bit) but quite often a doubling-trebling of the shown cv for the attacker.

I exploit this with the Soviets, especially if I know I can trigger additional disruptions (air attacks) then I'll often risk an attack at 1.4:1. Problem is you do get burnt, not least for the Soviets the shown German cv on map can be wildly misleading ... even if the units have been in contact before you attack

Frustrating bit for me was that sector has people like Tolbukhin, Vatutin and Vasilevsky leading the armies and Koniev at front level. And is stuffed with support units.

quote:

ORIGINAL: morvael

One should play with Alt CV to reduce amount by which CV on counter differs from actual CV in combat.

quote:

ORIGINAL: rrbill

@morvael: "One should play with Alt CV to reduce amount by which CV on counter differs from actual CV in combat."

Is this variance display only? (I.e., the combat CV is the same in either case, one just sees it estimated in "alt CV" games.)

quote:

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

I'm seeing no modified values for German units that often start a turn in a level 1 fort at 10%. That's not using alt-cv so using it may be the way to go.


Oddly I find the alt-cv confusing . Have got so used to making mental adjustments that I end up losing a load of battles as the expected shifts don't happen. But for testing out ideas, such as the impact of leadership, command limits, support units and so on it is very informative as a mode.

quote:

ORIGINAL: chaos45

Agreed German engineers seem much more effective- think its probably because they are 70+ experience and Soviet Sappers are only 50ish experience for through 1942.

As to fatigue its effects are also based on experience is my understanding from reading the rule book- so Germans even with higher levels of fatigue are less affected than Soviet units due to higher/lower experience difference.

Its why 1 million more German infantry on the battlefield is so much more telling than 1 million more Soviets as its a ton more combat power/CV due to the higher experience/morale rating of the Germans especially once Soviets drop to 40.

...


you see that a lot in 1941. Move a German infantry division too far and it flips from say 10cv to 9. Move a Soviet division and it flips from 2 to 1. The practical impact is you can drive the Germans much more while I worry about any of my units with much > 30-35 fatigue

quote:

ORIGINAL: chaos45

Loki-First off your stacks are deceptively strong...most of your CV is coming from Fortifications.

If he organizes the attack right with Panzer units in the assault having alot of engineers none of your Fortification CV will count in the battle. So really all those stacks against the right assault forces are only 20 or so CV.

So not near as strong as they appear. Yes it will take an effort but since he is about 100% strength basically 1 panzer stack with a full attack can prolly break one of those hexes especially if he softens you up with airpower and uses a good German leader.

Your next issue is you army HQs should be parked on the tank corps- with that set up once he gets a hole he just has to drive thru and then that will displace your HQs making the entire rest of the line lose command and control and thus become a ton weaker. Always place HQs near the frontline with a combat unit even if its only a BDE of some sort so they can only be displaced by attacks not just German movement.

Also I dont know but if you moved them alot on your turn they could be quite fatigued which makes them fight worse by far. The germans due to higher experience level can move further and still fight well, Ive found soviet units if they move alot fight much worse end result.

Tank Corps as your reserves is abit weak- Cav Corps are much better as they have more Manpower- 1 battle and a Tank Corps is about useless for the rest of the turn. Also you should have your tank armies assigned to a front for more command rolls. Right now you get one roll probably at 6 Skill and then straight to Stavka....means if you fail the first roll your tank corps are actually fighting at about 25% or more less than printed CV. I did this by having one front that is nothing but tank/mech corps assigned to tank armies. Then where he moved the panzer ball I moved my entire tank front to match.

Shock armies = my local/front reserve forces and my tank front = my strategic reserves/counterpunch front. Still not sure I was happy splitting up all my shock armies 1 per front. It worked but until I got my tank front active later in 1942 it meant coordinated efforts between the shock armies was rough.

Just another key note but you always have to remember your fighting German movement as much as German CV. Really IMO should have left at least a 1 division screen in all that good terrain in front of your main position. Forces him to expend movement first to attack that unit then movement to actually move in and take the hex...not to mention more fatigue/disruption to his unit then your unit just gets pushed into the new MLR so not a bad thing. For this area being critical to Moscow I would have done a normal division screen then 2 div line then bde/div behind main line....then strategic reserves of picket lined tank/cav corps.

Other benefit of alot of units behind the MLR is you can put them all in reserve mode and usually get at least a couple defensive activations. I have found they rarely rout and even if they do and he wins it will just push the MLR troops back into the back up positions. You would be surprised sometimes 1 BDE defensively activating can shift the odds to just under 2.0 esp if the German player is doing hasty attacks or just trying to attack with enough to win to save MP for other moves/assaults. Creates uncertainty for the German player and forces overcommittment or failed attacks both good for you as Soviets.

Mattp- yes massive CV swings on assaults defense- alot has to do with how well prep'd the hex is and how good the leaders are more than anything. Lots of disruption/fatigue massively reduces final CV calculations. Is why having the best Soviet Generals in Key positions is critical. As it mitigates the German leadership edge in at least a couple locations. Next is bomb the German spearhead units every chance you get, and keep them in a Zoc if you can all the time. Dont let them get free turns of rest if they are trying to push assaults. Also if you leave them un- zoc'd you are losing out on german attrition.

A 500k pocket is a tough blow, but its almost mud and you have the reserves just a matter of rebuilding and digging in. Plus by 1943 your mobile forces will be stronger due to morale/experience increases not to mention better ToEs.



all I can say is that in the circumstances that was the best defense I could muster. You would have done it differently, which is one of the great things about this game, that there are different perceptions of best/worst options and approaches. The reason I put that image in is further to support the argument that 1942 has got skewed and its not just the impact of the 40 NM. I realise there are better layouts in theory and so on. Best I could manage but its informative.


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(in reply to chaos45)
Post #: 335
RE: Turn 66: 17 – 23 September 1942 - 9/14/2015 12:11:31 PM   
chaos45

 

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mattp- another thing on Germans getting more support- they have better leaders in General. German leaders overall have higher skill levels than Soviet leaders and this inlcudes initiative which is the key stat for reserves committment.

From what Ive seen and memory Soviets in general are rather low on initiative only a couple generals have an initiative above 6.

Germans have a ton of 7/7/7 generals- by that I mean generals that are at least 7 Morale/7 inf or mech/7 initiative.

Soviets on the other hand have to make due with mostly 5-6 skill level in all 3 of those critical stats aside from probably 4-5 top generals. Which since you have vastly more forces in play and low Command and control per army and no corps means your few good leaders honestly affect a small area of the entire frontline.

On the other hand the Germans can put a super great general with a load of support units at Army or Corps level and modify alot of combats. The super Army Pelton is always talkign about. Basically will never fail command rolls and almost always get a ton of support units involved in the defense.

As the Soviets you have to try and make the best use of your good generals...usually I do this by having my Shock armies have my best commanders...then when I launch key attacks I make sure more Command points of units from the shock army are involved than other armies so the shock army takes the lead for leadership rolls. So 1 good shock army general can often influence 3-4 attacks a round easily if done right. Defense is abit harder unless the Shock army units are attacked. About the only thing you can do here is put 1 corps from the shock army across 5 hexes of the line with a division+BDE from another army should still give the shock army the battle leadership.

(in reply to loki100)
Post #: 336
RE: Turn 66: 17 – 23 September 1942 - 9/15/2015 6:48:32 AM   
Gabriel B.

 

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5 initiative is the average for army commanders, 6 for front.

You need also to use army leaders with 4 initiative skill , just to add meat to the grinder , not lead the fight for the hex.

(in reply to chaos45)
Post #: 337
Turn 67: 24-30 September 1942 - 9/17/2015 9:35:17 AM   
loki100


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Turn 67: 24-30 September 1942

The end of September saw the Germans renew their offensive. Soviet positions to the north and east of Vyazma were shattered as defensive lines prepared in late 1941 were breached in a matter of hours.



Sevastopol continued to face an unrelenting air assault. Despite deploying additional PVO AA formations to the city, no significant losses were inflicted on the Romanian planes (the one shown in that image is their first in about 10 raids spread across September).



In a desperate attempt to shore up morale, Stavka ordered more promotions for commanders and key formations.


[1]

North of Lipetsk, Stavka ordered a major tank raid on the over confident Germans. While there was no optimism that this sector could be held if the Germans committed their main formations, the Soviets intended to disrupt their build up before having to fall back eastwards.



The units cut off to the north of Vyazma were abandoned to their fate but before the Soviet defenders around the city could pull back it was essential to eliminate the German salient to their rear.

4 Army's opening attack failed but a second attack managed to drive the Germans back


[2]


(elements of 4 Army in action)

With their line of retreat cut, the German 10 Mot division was routed by elements of 3 Tank Army



Mounting tank losses was leading to greater use of British and American Lend lease armour in the combat formations.




(Lend lease Churchills moving back after the fighting west of Vyazma)

With this, Vyazma was abandoned as Stavka hastily re-organised an attempt to defend the approaches to Moscow. Freshly raised, poorly trained formations were allocated to the battered Volkhov Front in an attempt to construct an effective defense.



OOB Changes



Soviet losses were massive as the formations in the Bryansk pocket were destroyed. The Germans lost 26,000 men (10,000 killed), 300 tanks and 95 planes but Soviet losses were 520,000 men (18,000 killed, 465,000 prisoners), 900 tanks and 250 planes.

The need to concentrate at Moscow led to a massive redeployment from the south. It was assumed the Germans would easily reach the Volga and the Caucasus and the preservation of the remaining army was more important than any city or river line.

[1] At least that means I can give Zakharov a Front command with no extra penalty
[2] Which of course means that some elite units were out of MP, couldn't fall back, so will probably be lost next turn

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The only thing that seemed to matter was the defense of Moscow. The Germans were unstoppable and the only hope was to commit almost every available unit to delay their advance.


(also most of the 540 on the Leningrad Front are U2VS)

I was able to briefly meet Sacha as his squadron was ordered back from the Urals and thrown into the fighting in support of the Kalinin Front formations.



< Message edited by loki100 -- 9/18/2015 12:37:51 PM >


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(in reply to Gabriel B.)
Post #: 338
RE: Turn 67: 24-30 September 1942 - 9/20/2015 11:38:45 PM   
Matnjord

 

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Well, things are looking quite grim now. Are you deliberately raising the tension for the sake of the AAr or are you genuinely concerned about your chances of survival?

Of course you are allowed not to answer this question to preserve your artistic integrity

< Message edited by Matnjord -- 9/21/2015 12:40:17 AM >

(in reply to loki100)
Post #: 339
RE: Turn 67: 24-30 September 1942 - 9/21/2015 6:33:07 AM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Matnjord

Well, things are looking quite grim now. Are you deliberately raising the tension for the sake of the AAr or are you genuinely concerned about your chances of survival?

Of course you are allowed not to answer this question to preserve your artistic integrity


oh its grim, vigabrand is eating up the equivalent of an army every other turn, so I can't even raise fresh formations fast enough to replace my losses ... I have the manpower (off map), but not the on-map formations to draw it into the game.

returning to 45 NM from 1 October is a relief and getting the late 42/early 43 corps ToEs will help (its at that stage that its easy to ensure your corps are >10 as opposed to in the 7-10 range depending on their type).

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Post #: 340
Turn 68: 1- 7 October 1942 - 9/22/2015 6:19:21 AM   
loki100


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Turn 68: 1- 7 October 1942

Early October saw the Germans maintain their offensive towards Moscow. The equivalent of 2 armies were encircled around Kaluga and in the centre. Of particular concern, the Germans had forced the broad Oka river threatening the southern approach to Moscow.



Stavka's orders to the exhausted units that had suffered defeat after defeat in September was clear. The enemy were just over 50 miles from Moscow, there was no space to retreat.

In an attempt to stall the Germans, Vasilevsky's 22 Army struck and managed to open a narrow supply corridor to the units of 54 Army.


[1]


(Part of 22 Army's offensive)

To the south, the cavalry formations of 4 Army widened the corridor to the formations at Kaluga.



Among the debris of the battlefield, the Soviet cavalrymen found the wrecked remnants of a completely new German tank. NKVD units were hastily dispatched and the tanks removed for closer examination.


(destroyed Tiger tank north of Kaluga)

The units deep in the pocket tried to broaden the corridor by attacking out but these attacks mostly failed with very heavy losses.



In the meantime Stavka decided to gamble. With the German Panzers fully committed at Moscow, the estimate was the rest of their front lacked any armoured formations. Despite losing much of their best infantry to reinforce the Moscow battles, Crimean, South-Eastern and Trans-Caucasus Fronts were ordered over to the offensive. To assist, Stavka released 3 Tank Armies from reserve [2]. Combined with the armour of Crimean Front, this meant the Soviet southern forces had almost 4,000 tanks.



Protected by a massive VVS deployment from reserve, the Soviets were prepared to gamble with the fickle autumn weather in the south and the German fixation on Moscow.

[3]

OOB



Losses remained high. The Germans lost 27,000 men (10,000 killed), 240 tanks (in the various Moscow battles) and 150 planes. Soviet losses were 82.000 men (18,000 killed and 40,000 prisoners), 440 tanks and 340 planes.

[1] At the moment, almost all the German armour is here, oddly I want to keep it relatively immobile rather than allow it to shift to a weaker sector.
[2] Voronezh Front
[3] This is a rather risky plan B. I'd originally been planning another major retreat down here, give up Rostov and deploy weak forces to the Caucasus and the bulk to Stalingrad-Voronezh sector. The complete lack of any German mobile units makes this a gamble worth considering ... how well it works will depend on the weather and if I have misjudged about the location of the Pzrs.


< Message edited by loki100 -- 9/24/2015 9:17:30 PM >


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Post #: 341
RE: Turn 68: 1- 6 October 1942 - 9/24/2015 10:08:15 AM   
Matnjord

 

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Oh dear, Moskva threatened in 1942? I wouldn't have thought that possible just 4 months ago! Hopefully the weather will come to your rescue as soon as possible. Let's pray for some mud...

(in reply to loki100)
Post #: 342
RE: Turn 68: 1- 6 October 1942 - 9/24/2015 11:57:41 AM   
chaos45

 

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Mud hits soon, Moscow wont fall.

This will give Loki 4+ weeks of doing nothing but building forts and adding units/manpower/armaments to the Soviet army. By winter the soviet lines will be dug in and strong again and then once January hits the German morale drops and Soviet Morale increases again. By that point German offensive operations will reduce drastically and Loki should be able to renew some offesnive operations over the winter of 1942 in to 1943.

Honestly despite how depressing losing all those armies were to Loki he is still doing fine, the Germans havent even taken Rostov. Nor penetrated deep into the south stripping those manpower centers. With Lokis manpower/armaments reserves his army will quickly re-man/re-build over the winter. Yes he will have to use alot of AP to build new units but thats what all Soviet players have to do....and his Rifle Corps drop to only 10 AP in january to build.

The morale switch in 1943 is huge I did the math its something like a total 20-25% combat value shift between the two armies once units reach the new national morale levels. Which means that by summer 1943 the german infantry on average is alot weaker and soviet infantry alot stronger. 5 points doesnt sound like alot but when it comes to CV stats its a big modification to you final CV on all your units. So when one side loses 5 and the other gains 5 its a roughly 20% give or take shift in total combat strength....thats a pretty massive shift and why the Germans have to shift to mostly defensive operations in 1943 especially as Soviet units gain even more morale from wins and get experience levels increased.

Basically in 1.08.04 when they dropped the soviets 5 NM in 1942 it dropped the CV of Soviet units on average around 10% when you look at difference in CV between units with a 5 point morale/experience difference. So by the start of 1943 and going forward your looking at soviet units that 20% stronger than 1942 and german units about 10% weaker....so between the start of summer 1942 and end of winter months in 1943 its a total shift of almost 30% more combat power to the Soviets benefit.

Which is honestly pretty realistic as by the end of the winter of 1942 the Soviet army had learned alot about conducting operations and fighting modern war, and especially how german operating proceedures worked. Were they still equal man for man in combat power no...but they had twice as many men.

(in reply to Matnjord)
Post #: 343
RE: Turn 68: 1- 6 October 1942 - 9/24/2015 5:49:18 PM   
Peltonx


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Nice to see you back.

Just hang on and counter attack every place you can even if odds are not that great-grind away.

He will probably have enough strength to launch an offensive come snow but should run out of steam by Jan.

Keep up the good fight!!!!

_____________________________

Beta Tester WitW & WitE

(in reply to chaos45)
Post #: 344
RE: Turn 68: 1- 6 October 1942 - 9/24/2015 8:05:17 PM   
loki100


Posts: 7468
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From: Utlima Thule
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Matnjord

Oh dear, Moskva threatened in 1942? I wouldn't have thought that possible just 4 months ago! Hopefully the weather will come to your rescue as soon as possible. Let's pray for some mud...


ah thats where random weather makes things interesting ... we are a few turns ahead and its been ahem *variable* so far.

Also I'm worried about what happens when the rivers freeze, he's already forced the Oka in a clear weather turn and still has all 8 Pzr Corps at Moscow.

quote:

ORIGINAL: chaos45

Mud hits soon, Moscow wont fall.

This will give Loki 4+ weeks of doing nothing but building forts and adding units/manpower/armaments to the Soviet army. By winter the soviet lines will be dug in and strong again and then once January hits the German morale drops and Soviet Morale increases again. By that point German offensive operations will reduce drastically and Loki should be able to renew some offesnive operations over the winter of 1942 in to 1943.

Honestly despite how depressing losing all those armies were to Loki he is still doing fine, the Germans havent even taken Rostov. Nor penetrated deep into the south stripping those manpower centers. With Lokis manpower/armaments reserves his army will quickly re-man/re-build over the winter. Yes he will have to use alot of AP to build new units but thats what all Soviet players have to do....and his Rifle Corps drop to only 10 AP in january to build.

The morale switch in 1943 is huge I did the math its something like a total 20-25% combat value shift between the two armies once units reach the new national morale levels. Which means that by summer 1943 the german infantry on average is alot weaker and soviet infantry alot stronger. 5 points doesnt sound like alot but when it comes to CV stats its a big modification to you final CV on all your units. So when one side loses 5 and the other gains 5 its a roughly 20% give or take shift in total combat strength....thats a pretty massive shift and why the Germans have to shift to mostly defensive operations in 1943 especially as Soviet units gain even more morale from wins and get experience levels increased.

Basically in 1.08.04 when they dropped the soviets 5 NM in 1942 it dropped the CV of Soviet units on average around 10% when you look at difference in CV between units with a 5 point morale/experience difference. So by the start of 1943 and going forward your looking at soviet units that 20% stronger than 1942 and german units about 10% weaker....so between the start of summer 1942 and end of winter months in 1943 its a total shift of almost 30% more combat power to the Soviets benefit.

Which is honestly pretty realistic as by the end of the winter of 1942 the Soviet army had learned alot about conducting operations and fighting modern war, and especially how german operating proceedures worked. Were they still equal man for man in combat power no...but they had twice as many men.


as above, we're on random weather ... odd things do happen and he has 8 Pzr Corps plus all his best infantry there so with frozen rivers he has a decent chance before the Jan 43 NM starts to have an effect

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton

Nice to see you back.

Just hang on and counter attack every place you can even if odds are not that great-grind away.

He will probably have enough strength to launch an offensive come snow but should run out of steam by Jan.

Keep up the good fight!!!!


aye, as in the next post, I'm starting to do some attacks simply to kill. Given I have 1.1m in my off map manpower pool I can afford to trade off actual losses at unfavourable rates ... my only concern is losing more complete combat formations.


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Post #: 345
Turn 69: 8 -15 October 1942 - 9/24/2015 8:10:59 PM   
loki100


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From: Utlima Thule
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Turn 69: 8 -15 October 1942

The Germans maintained their pressure at Moscow, both sealing off the formations trapped near Kaluga and, again, encircling 54 Army trapped around Borodino.


(as usual this is the position when I open the turn)

Stavka continued to reward those armoured formations that had won victories and renamed the South-Eastern Front to reflect its position on the Soviet defensive lines.



Facing a crisis at Moscow, and desperate to slow the Germans, Stavka ordered two major offensives at opposite ends of the front.

Moscow

At Moscow, 22 Army again tried to reach the units trapped around Borodino. The opening blow was held, but a renewal of the attack on 12 October forced the German infantry to fall back.



Elements of the reconstituted 2nd Shock Army then tried to break into the pocket but the German 208 Infantry division managed to hold off two successive attacks.



In frustration, Stavka ordered the commitment of the final mobile reserve at Moscow. Even as the exhausted formations of 2 Shock pulled back, and the Germans perhaps relaxed, the armour of 3 Tank Army hit their defences.



This time the 208th buckled and Soviet units were able to link up.

To distract the Germans, 24 Army supported these operations by attacking elements of 24 Panzer Corps. However, the German armour was well deployed defensive and the Soviet offensive quickly lost momentum.



In an attempt to place the German flanks under pressure, 4 Army counter attacked near Kaluga. Here there was no real hope of reaching the trapped formations but there was a chance to damage some over-extended German motorised divisions.



and, to the south of the Oka, Bryansk Front's 28 Army forced 2 Panzer Division to fall back as Soviet units redeployed on the Tula-Ryazan axis.


(Cavalry of 4 Army preparing for action)



The South

In the Crimea, the Soviets again tried to protect Sevastopol from the endless bombing by a series of naval landings. The attempt at Feodosiya failed but again the main rail lines to the Crimea were cut.



However, at Rostov, the Soviet armour struck at the exposed German allied formations. Unable to cope with the Soviet tanks, the Hungarians were quickly forced back and then all semblance of an organised retreat ended



To the north, the cavalry of 37 Army forced back the Romanians leaving the German infantry divisions exposed and partly encircled by the fast advancing Soviet tanks.

In an attempt to disrupt any German response, the VVS launched a series of massive raids in an attempt to destroy the Luftwaffe on the ground and limit its capacity to intervene.




(Soviet marines at Mariupol)

OOB



Losses continued to be high. The Germans lost 27,000 men (7,000 killed), 135 tanks and 100 planes. Soviet losses were 43,000 men (23,000 killed), 315 tanks and 365 planes.




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Post #: 346
RE: Turn 69: 8 -15 October 1942 - 9/24/2015 9:22:07 PM   
M60A3TTS


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I'm not sure why you have 500 aircraft supporting the Leningrad Front. You aren't reporting on any action there, so if it is quiet, I'd transfer the lot to the defense of Moscow.

You are now getting the 42c Rifle Corps and that is a substantial improvement from the 42b formation. You'll get the Southwestern Front in a couple turns, so you can get a lot of rifle brigades going with that. You may even be able to squeeze in more guards rifle corps with supporting sappers naturally and stack a pair of divisions on a hex. That should give you a reasonable defense.

@ Chaos: He isn't going to get much forting done in mud and snow. The engineering values are reduced in non-clear weather conditions.


(in reply to loki100)
Post #: 347
RE: Turn 69: 8 -15 October 1942 - 9/24/2015 9:48:06 PM   
loki100


Posts: 7468
Joined: 10/20/2012
From: Utlima Thule
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

I'm not sure why you have 500 aircraft supporting the Leningrad Front. You aren't reporting on any action there, so if it is quiet, I'd transfer the lot to the defense of Moscow.

You are now getting the 42c Rifle Corps and that is a substantial improvement from the 42b formation. You'll get the Southwestern Front in a couple turns, so you can get a lot of rifle brigades going with that. You may even be able to squeeze in more guards rifle corps with supporting sappers naturally and stack a pair of divisions on a hex. That should give you a reasonable defense.

@ Chaos: He isn't going to get much forting done in mud and snow. The engineering values are reduced in non-clear weather conditions.





agree about the admin pts with SW Front, originally I was going to bank those for the 1943 corps conversion but in the current situation they need to go on raising the core of fresh formations so I can get manpower out of the pool and onto the map.

Len Front airpower is almost all U2s. Attriting the Finns to death as I am taking out 200-500 men per turn and I think that is more than they get in replacements. I'm also every now and then launching infantry attacks, again it keeps them a bit weaker for when I can spare units and time to remind them who is in charge

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Post #: 348
RE: Turn 67: 24-30 September 1942 - 9/25/2015 1:23:16 PM   
gingerbread


Posts: 2929
Joined: 1/4/2007
From: Sweden
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

oh its grim, vigabrand is eating up the equivalent of an army every other turn, so I can't even raise fresh formations fast enough to replace my losses ... I have the manpower (off map), but not the on-map formations to draw it into the game.


Might I request some formation count data? I'm mostly interested in the infantry, but you can add the chrome (OK, steel) & cav if you want to. RD equivalents (XXX=3, X=½) would be a useful measure stick. As far back as you regard it worth the effort.

You do provide a most excellent set of data already, but since formation numbers has popped up as a vital point, it would be nice to see it.

Did you fall for the temptation to discontinue RB builds due to that you were doing well?

(in reply to loki100)
Post #: 349
RE: Turn 67: 24-30 September 1942 - 9/25/2015 4:05:32 PM   
loki100


Posts: 7468
Joined: 10/20/2012
From: Utlima Thule
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

oh its grim, vigabrand is eating up the equivalent of an army every other turn, so I can't even raise fresh formations fast enough to replace my losses ... I have the manpower (off map), but not the on-map formations to draw it into the game.


Might I request some formation count data? I'm mostly interested in the infantry, but you can add the chrome (OK, steel) & cav if you want to. RD equivalents (XXX=3, X=½) would be a useful measure stick. As far back as you regard it worth the effort.

You do provide a most excellent set of data already, but since formation numbers has popped up as a vital point, it would be nice to see it.

Did you fall for the temptation to discontinue RB builds due to that you were doing well?


will do, the next post is a natural place to wrap up the summmer battles with a large map and some numbers etc, so I'll slot it into there.

Yes, and I'm suffering for it now . At the start of the summer it was easy to grab a set of brigades, form them up, let them have a turn on refit >10 hexes to the rear and ... a ready made 3 cv, mixed experience, 50 morale rifle division. Now its not just that my ability to produce new units has fallen behind my losses, but also its taking 8-10 turns to get them to combat ready ... some I'm just chucking in but with low experience and the late 42 rifle division OOB, its back to using 1 cv ants.

So, don't stop the production line of replacement shells till you are really sure the German player has stopped eating your army.

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Post #: 350
RE: Turn 67: 24-30 September 1942 - 9/26/2015 10:18:44 AM   
STEF78


Posts: 2066
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From: Versailles, France
Status: offline
As usual, the strength of 1942's german offensive in front of Moscow is impressive and the loss of several units every turn a harsh blow!


Hold on Loki! Ennemy is at the gates!

< Message edited by STEF78 -- 9/26/2015 11:20:04 AM >

(in reply to loki100)
Post #: 351
RE: Turn 67: 24-30 September 1942 - 9/27/2015 3:08:34 PM   
Matnjord

 

Posts: 24
Joined: 2/3/2015
Status: offline
This is looking more and more like the end of Fall Blau with Moscow instead of Stalingrad as the target. Sadly there seems to be no weakly held flank to breakthrough and encircle Also replace the 6th army with an entire army group worth of tanks and the Italians with elite German rifle divisions...

I'll wait for the end of the summer battles to ask some questions. Make sure there is Stavka left to answer Loki! Hold fast!

(in reply to STEF78)
Post #: 352
RE: Turn 67: 24-30 September 1942 - 10/1/2015 5:07:32 PM   
loki100


Posts: 7468
Joined: 10/20/2012
From: Utlima Thule
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: STEF78

As usual, the strength of 1942's german offensive in front of Moscow is impressive and the loss of several units every turn a harsh blow!


Hold on Loki! Ennemy is at the gates!


quote:

ORIGINAL: Matnjord

This is looking more and more like the end of Fall Blau with Moscow instead of Stalingrad as the target. Sadly there seems to be no weakly held flank to breakthrough and encircle Also replace the 6th army with an entire army group worth of tanks and the Italians with elite German rifle divisions...

I'll wait for the end of the summer battles to ask some questions. Make sure there is Stavka left to answer Loki! Hold fast!


depends if Vigabrand wants to go for an outright win (but run the risk of being snagged up in a mass of rifle corps and poor terrain) or carry on taking out army sized pockets.

I would be much happier if I could see a nice long open flank with no meaningful reserves behind it ... ahem.

Now for some reason all/most of my images have disappeared. As I'm away from home (in fact out on the western edge of Europe), I can't chase it up but I can't see any images using either firefox or chrome. So while I have an update ready, as a sort of overview of the summer not sure its worth posting. But for now, here's a simple spreadsheet showing how badly the 1942 fighting has hit my army:







Attachment (1)

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Post #: 353
RE: Turn 67: 24-30 September 1942 - 10/2/2015 8:10:50 AM   
gingerbread


Posts: 2929
Joined: 1/4/2007
From: Sweden
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Wow! That's bad!

The map pictures and loss numbers have told some of this, but these numbers tell it from another aspect, -150 RD. I assume this is net numbers so the RB builds during this period are hidden in the total. AP for half a year.

I admit you were the one telling us not to underestimate vigabrand, and you were right.

(in reply to loki100)
Post #: 354
RE: Turn 67: 24-30 September 1942 - 10/2/2015 9:44:08 AM   
loki100


Posts: 7468
Joined: 10/20/2012
From: Utlima Thule
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

Wow! That's bad!

The map pictures and loss numbers have told some of this, but these numbers tell it from another aspect, -150 RD. I assume this is net numbers so the RB builds during this period are hidden in the total. AP for half a year.

I admit you were the one telling us not to underestimate vigabrand, and you were right.


its a very telling way of presenting the information. Gross losses will be worse, lets say I've received about 800 admin pts over the period, say 20% has gone on formation management, 20% on raising cavalry/mech formations, so about 50% will have gone into raising new rifle formations ~ 80 brigades/40 divisions.

I managed to waste 100 admin pts when I first assigned extra AA to Sevastopol and then decided to move it when it seemed to be making no difference. Since I've never before removed city AA, and in any case these were SUs I'd added not the at-start resource, I forgot about the horrific Admin pt penalty.

since images seem to have re-appeared ...

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Post #: 355
T70: 15-21 October 1942 - 10/2/2015 9:45:14 AM   
loki100


Posts: 7468
Joined: 10/20/2012
From: Utlima Thule
Status: online
T70: 15-21 October 1942

Mid October saw the first blast of winter. Around Moscow, cold air from Siberia brought blizzard conditions but the rest of the front was hit by heavy rain.



At Moscow the result was localised fighting as the Germans destroyed the units trapped at Kaluga and sealed off the Borodino pocket. In turn, Soviet forces made limited gains in an attempt to deepen the Moscow defensive lines.



However, if the intensity of ground operations slowed, the Soviets intensified the airwar. With new fighters now available, Stavka was determined to take the campaign to the Luftwaffe.



Have added the Soviet OOB at the army level. Main thing to note is how battered some formations are. Depending on the number of support units, I'd expect a typical army to have around 115,000 men (9 rifle divisions ~ 100,000), especially in Volkhov, Western, Stalingrad, Crimean and Trans-Caucasus Fronts most units are badly under-strength. Also 4 armies (assigned to Urals/Volga MD) are effectively empty shells.



Shows key changes to the overall OOB. So after a summer of constant battles the Germans have 100,000 more men than at the start, no real changes to any of their allies and I've lost a net 1.8m.

In terms of resources, I have a massive off map manpower reserve, masses of armament points. Truck situation is fine.

Overall the Axis side has lost 460,000 men (and had 110,000 return). So that means they have gained around 450,000 men (gross) in a period when historically Germany had run out of significant manpower reserves.

They've also lost 3,300 AFVs with no apparent harm to the combat effectiveness of the Panzer divisions (and haven't been able to replace all their losses).

In the air they have lost 2,000 planes for 6,300 of mine. More recently the loss ratio has become 2.2:1 as I finally start to be able to deploy better aircraft.

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Post #: 356
RE: T70: 15-21 October 1942 - 10/2/2015 2:20:42 PM   
Peltonx


Posts: 7250
Joined: 4/9/2006
Status: offline
Its because no Stalingrad.

As I constantly say WitE is not a movie or a book.

No German player is going to throw away 350,000 men.

Brian vs TDV loses are higher then historical so its possible to get historical losses, less then historical and higher then historical.



< Message edited by Pelton -- 10/2/2015 3:21:58 PM >


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Beta Tester WitW & WitE

(in reply to loki100)
Post #: 357
RE: T70: 15-21 October 1942 - 10/2/2015 5:05:52 PM   
Bozo_the_Clown


Posts: 862
Joined: 6/25/2013
From: Bozotown
Status: offline
quote:

Overall the Axis side has lost 460,000 men (and had 110,000 return). So that means they have gained around 450,000 men (gross) in a period when historically Germany had run out of significant manpower reserves.


Loki, I think the Axis numbers have always been inflated in this game. Walloc has pointed this out many times. The numbers in WitE are way off the historical numbers:

quote:


On 1 July 1942 German forces in the East were 2.635.000 plus 150.000 in Finland and 212.000 in rear occupied areas of Eastern Europe.Total 2.997.000.

On 1 July 1943 German forces in the East were 3.138.000(Waffen SS and ground combat units of the Luftwaffe are included) plus 80.000 on Finnish front.Total 3.218.000.


The patches, mild blizzard and Attack+1 gone have only increased the problem. In your game the Germans have 4.2 mio on July 1st. What can you say about that?

(in reply to loki100)
Post #: 358
RE: T70: 15-21 October 1942 - 10/2/2015 5:28:13 PM   
chaos45

 

Posts: 1859
Joined: 1/22/2001
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Bozo- I dont think its quite that simple...........

I do believe that the German Army is much larger than historical. Even before Stalingrad so the no Stalingrad arguement isnt valid. The entire reason Stalingrad happened was the German Army was very weak/reduced in manpower before the Soviets even attempted the encirclement- something we are not seeing in the game at all.

Now so far me and Peltons game is fairly balanced and has been a tense and IMO a well played match so the game is maybe close to being balanced?? just have to see if the Germans remain to strong or weak 43-45. Again though he still has a way stronger German army than historical despite bitter fighting and counterattacks by my soviet forces.

The issue I have with the game numbers and historical numbers- the game total manpower includes all Airbase, HQ, and in general rear area troops. Im not sure all of the historical totals include some of these manpower sources. Even with the extra men included such as Airbase manpower which Im fairly certain wasnt in the historical numbers you still see a German army probably inflated 500k+ or more over historical levels tho.

As I think all the Luftwaffe HQs = several hundred thousand men...now the massive issue here is the german player can just disband all those luftwaffe HQs and suddenly generate about 2 entire extra armies of trained combat infantrymen over a couple weeks if they want to.......something the German army historical could not.

The main reason you see this IMO is as has been beat to death like a hundred times now........combat losses are to low for both sides. Moraeval has said in the next patch combat losses should increase some for both sides so that should help keep both armies from maintaining 90%+ ToEs.


(in reply to Bozo_the_Clown)
Post #: 359
RE: T70: 15-21 October 1942 - 10/2/2015 7:30:19 PM   
morvael


Posts: 11753
Joined: 9/8/2006
From: Poland
Status: offline
My extensive tests done for 1.08.05 have shown that armies are indeed stronger in 1.08.00-04 because of repairs after movement. I have slightly reduced the effectiveness of these, while at the same time increased the losses from combat (thanks to reworked "too many attackers penalty"), in order to get closer to 1.07.xx-level totals. Because of the smaller airbases and 41a Rifle Divisions it wasn't possible to get above 100% for 1941, because otherwise the losses for later years were way too high. So comparing to 1.07.xx you can expect less disabled in 1.08.05 but more killed and overall losses will be bigger later in the war (when the fort levels are high). Some German manpower was also rescheduled from 1941 to 1943. Will the current level be enough to force operational pauses just because of mounting losses? Only time will tell. A sample from what I got in AIvsAI games for the first 10 turns of each campaign scenario:

1941GC: German level of losses in 1.08.04 compared to 1.07.15: 80%, Soviet: 87% (killed 80% and 144%). In 1.08.05: 95% and 94% (killed 134% and 189%)
1942GC: 60% and 104% (killed 65% and 180%) vs 82% and 130% (killed 100% and 234%)
StoB: 142% and 102% (killed 210% and 185%) vs 154% and 128% (killed 270% and 221%)
1943GC: killed 93% and 214% vs 152% and 258% (disabled are negative in this scenario, so can't calculate totals)
1944GC: 107% and 101% (killed 77% and 180%) vs 95% and 149% (killed 127% and 284%)
VtoB: 46% and 76% (killed 53% and 94%) vs 118% and 136% (killed 166% and 174%)

Bear in mind I should have done more 1.07.15 tests to have average numbers, but I did only one. For 1.08.05 I did more tests, especially in the middle of development, but less at the end. So the % may vary by as much as 20-30% depending on whether the AI is able to pull of Stalingrad or not, manage to force Rumanian surrender or not etc. Some changes are also caused by different TOE and scenario fixes. Also, players do not waste manpower in headon attack as the AI does. But I would expect an increase in losses, that's for sure.

(in reply to chaos45)
Post #: 360
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