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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 2/28/2015 11:03:47 PM   
carlkay58

 

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Very impressive NOSB! Congratulations!

(in reply to NotOneStepBack)
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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/1/2015 8:19:54 AM   
Smirfy

 

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Yes well done but Im pretty sure the player will want a greater reward than victory points for his strategic bombing efforts.

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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/1/2015 8:20:52 AM   
Balou


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+1

Thanks to both of you (NOSB + Smirfy), I'll give it one more try

< Message edited by Balou -- 3/1/2015 9:23:07 AM >

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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/1/2015 10:48:28 AM   
HMSWarspite

 

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Well, that puts one in on the other side for "VP are broken/anti AI, etc" debate. 53VP in a turn and c+100 from the game start in 10 turns. At that rate, you can afford a disaster on casualties as long as you capture cities!

Is this an AI game? What level? And are you willing to say how you did it?

And to humour Smirfy, are you going to play on and then show us what the effect on the Germans is?

I think the problem here is people are deciding something and then looking for evidence to support their view. IF there is a problem with strategic bombing not really affecting the ground game, and hence being for 'points only', there is a logical analysis process we need to go through:
1. Is it true?
2. Is it because the industry output is too high, isn't being affected by bombing, or just that the starting pools are too large and the Germans almost dont need production?

The solutions for all these are way way different.

A final point; if we discover that there is a golden bullet, whereby SB of one type of another definitely cripples the Germans, and cant be countered by good GE play, I would ask that we change it, even if we think it is historically accurate This is my one exception to the 'history is important and game play should follow' principle. The game must give both players choices and there must not be a single way of winning, especially one that cannot really be countered.

_____________________________

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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/1/2015 11:53:16 AM   
Smirfy

 

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The VP's arnt changing we have been told that. I for one accept that I dont like it but I accept it. People have then got to accept *alot* of people just completely ignore VP's now.

Even without Strategic Bombing the surplus's in Balou's game are absurd

Humour me all you like its about giving both players something near the challenges they faced. right now Strategic bombing is pointless


As for oil, the German player can defend oil he can deploy his airforce to protect industry rather than throwing at invaisions well within range of all Allied fighters. He can deploy flak and he can build depots, he has also got repair units and admin points. Geography is also on his side because large parts of his industry will be out of range at first at least its up to him to defend anti oil springboards. Lets not forget weather is his friend. He can do what the Germans also did economize on usage and remove the trucks from divisions and make more units static. Oil just like steel and transport is there to be destroyed if its not it may as well be Peltons War in Middle Earth

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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/1/2015 12:12:20 PM   
LiquidSky


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I seriously doubt that Strategic Bombing was the golden arrow you try and proclaim it to be.

SO I ask some interesting questions:

The allies spent a lot of effort bombing fuel/oil/synthetic oil plants. At what point in the war did the axis 'run out' of gas?

Was any shortages of fuel at the front because the barrel was dry? or because the tap was being interdicted? For example, during the Battle of the Bulge, was it impossible for the Panzers to get fuel because there was no fuel to get, or because fuel they did have couldn't move forward under air interdiction?

Can you name any item that was 'shut off' in production because the allies bombed it all? In 1943? 1944? Or was it 'shut off' because large portions of it was captured on the ground leaving the smaller remainder to bombed out?

In game, can the Germans seriously defend against a competent bombing campaign? It seems the people that think it is 'pointless' are the people that haven't figured out how to prosecute it.

Perhaps somebody should ignore the vps, park the Strat bombers and see if they can win the ground war without bombing any German production whatsoever....that would be the only way to prove if it is 'pointless'



_____________________________

“My logisticians are a humorless lot … they know if my campaign fails, they are the first ones I will slay.” – Alexander the Great

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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/1/2015 12:59:19 PM   
Smirfy

 

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I am not proclaiming it to be "a golden arrow" I'm looking forward to it having a reasonable effect in game. The premise of my arguement is its a no brainer using it just to bomb troops.

In October 44 they reached critical mass with fuel only weather the front stagnating, massive slave labour repairs and drastic cuts in consumption saved them.

Nobody expects Oil steel or transport to be shut off in 43 but niether would it be true that the Germans can burn up fuel with wanton abandon then. Nobody expects any of these to be shut of completely at any stage but you should be able to effect the game. The pools and proction seem far to high and consuption too low

Commander Panzer Lehr in the Bulge

"On the 13th December I returned to my Division where I received a few more tanks and some extra fuel. I had been promised enough for a 500 km. advance, but all I got was the normal amount for 200 kms., which in the rough terrain of the Ardennes was scarcely enough for 100 kms. On the 15th-16th December the Division proceeded to a new area. To save petrol the tanks were sent by rail; there were some attacks by two-engined bombers on these trains. Around Christmas Day the Divisional tank repair establishment, which was set up close to the railway station in order to save gasoline, was badly bombed. The long march itself cost about 30 tanks; those which had got bogged down, ran out of fuel or had breakdowns. About this time Model ordered that all stalled vehicles on the line of march should be drained of gasoline which should be used to get tanks up to the front.I refused to do this as I foresaw a situation when I would have insufficient transport to get fuel up to these tanks once they ran dry."

It not that they have not figured it out they have figured out using you SB's tactically makes more sense because as it stand a SB campaign effects nothing in game.


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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/1/2015 1:23:49 PM   
Red Lancer


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Smirfy


The VP's arnt changing we have been told that. I for one accept that I dont like it but I accept it. People have then got to accept *alot* of people just completely ignore VP's now.

Even without Strategic Bombing the surplus's in Balou's game are absurd

Humour me all you like its about giving both players something near the challenges they faced. right now Strategic bombing is pointless


As for oil, the German player can defend oil he can deploy his airforce to protect industry rather than throwing at invaisions well within range of all Allied fighters. He can deploy flak and he can build depots, he has also got repair units and admin points. Geography is also on his side because large parts of his industry will be out of range at first at least its up to him to defend anti oil springboards. Lets not forget weather is his friend. He can do what the Germans also did economize on usage and remove the trucks from divisions and make more units static. Oil just like steel and transport is there to be destroyed if its not it may as well be Peltons War in Middle Earth


Smirfy

You seem to want to keep peddling untruths to a level just short of trolling. We have clearly stated that we are willing to amend the settings for VPs based upon feedback and data. What isn't on the cards is a wholesale review of VPs.

Your claim earlier this week that the capture of production had no effect was wholly incorrect and demonstrated a clear lack of understanding of the basic game mechanics. You are now making significant claims based on seeing a number of screenshots but as I understand never having played a campaign game yourself. I concede that U-boats and V-Wpns are a VP only abstractions but damage to the other production infrastructure does impact on the game.

I am willing to accept constructive criticism and have a proven track record as that is what the Test Co-ord does - I cite as my evidence 18 months replaying other testers saves to address their concerns.

If you want to have a 'go' at the game system then please justify your opinion fully. You are now overstepping the line of reasonable behaviour, my patience is wearing thin and I have Moderator rights.





_____________________________

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WitE2 Asst Producer
WitE & WitW Dev

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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/1/2015 3:35:13 PM   
NotOneStepBack


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quote:

ORIGINAL: HMSWarspite

Well, that puts one in on the other side for "VP are broken/anti AI, etc" debate. 53VP in a turn and c+100 from the game start in 10 turns. At that rate, you can afford a disaster on casualties as long as you capture cities!

Is this an AI game? What level? And are you willing to say how you did it?

And to humour Smirfy, are you going to play on and then show us what the effect on the Germans is?

I think the problem here is people are deciding something and then looking for evidence to support their view. IF there is a problem with strategic bombing not really affecting the ground game, and hence being for 'points only', there is a logical analysis process we need to go through:
1. Is it true?
2. Is it because the industry output is too high, isn't being affected by bombing, or just that the starting pools are too large and the Germans almost dont need production?

The solutions for all these are way way different.

A final point; if we discover that there is a golden bullet, whereby SB of one type of another definitely cripples the Germans, and cant be countered by good GE play, I would ask that we change it, even if we think it is historically accurate This is my one exception to the 'history is important and game play should follow' principle. The game must give both players choices and there must not be a single way of winning, especially one that cannot really be countered.



This is a server game against Meklore.

So on T1 I dedicate all bombers to hit the U-boats, which gives you about 4 - 5 turns to play with hitting other targets which I have focused on large clusters of HI, and hitting oil, fuel and etc as secondary. It seems HI takes a while to repair so I keep rotating HI targets every turn and the cumulative damages are giving big VPs. I only do daylight bombing with big bomb loadouts. That's all there is pretty much to it. When you see the U-boat vps creeping back, I just switch to those targets for a turn and then flip back.

I also am using strategic AF in the med to hit Vienna and some french / italian HI targets as they also seem to add up. I have switched to night bombing for RAF but only if I have 500+ bombers to concentrate over the Ruhr, otherwise they don't hit anything.

< Message edited by NotOneStepBack -- 3/1/2015 4:40:36 PM >

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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/1/2015 3:39:42 PM   
decourcy2

 

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LiquidSky, it was a bit more complicated than 'run out'. Germany did not know or accept that they were going to lose in April '45 so they were still keeping reserves. I mentioned earlier that Germany should start with a larger fuel pool but the growth should be slight. This growth was only obtained by economizing. The German pilot training program was one of the first things affected by this, just before the game starts the Germans halved the number of hours going to their pilot trainees. I don't really like the way the pilot pool works; the Germans should get more trained pilots per turn but the base training should be 50 or so not 75.

The Germans used horses and carts in France to get supplies from the rail depots rather than trucks to conserve fuel (and trucks). At the moment the game is not giving me the feeling of having to conserve anything as the Germans, I feel i can be profligate with almost everything.

Their were some things entirely stopped by the Allied bombing, this is from memory so forgive my mistakes, but i think the Ta 154 was stopped, didn't the 388 factory get trashed slowing it down? I know an engine factory or two was destroyed as there were airframes sitting around with no engines in '44.

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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/1/2015 4:56:47 PM   
HMSWarspite

 

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A mechanic on pilot training I wuld love to see(and have appealed for in multiple games of this type) is for player controlled limited operational tours. Instead of a fixed skill level out of training, the level is set by the number of pilots who complete their tours, and are put on non-operational training roles. Each type (bomber, fighter, patrol etc) would have a tour length set by the player (in terms of number of game sorties). They then get withdrawn to a 'instructor pool' automatically, and replaced in their unit by someone fresh out of training. The level of the output from training is set by the number and skill level of the instructors (probably lagged, so say this months instructors set the output in say 6 months time. If slightly more trainees are drawn in a given period than the instructors can train (say 10 per instructor) they are less trained... once trainees exceed instructors by a lot, they become very less trained... You would cap the levels, but IJN AF shows what could be done (ludicrously exensive training), and pilots would probably need to come out at 20% skill even with no instructors...

I don't know if I explained it well, but something like this:
Ratio of instructors to pilots drawn: 1:10, gives trainees of say 75% of instructor average skill
1:20 gives say 50% of instructors skill
1:50 30%etc (the numbers are arbitrary, but you get the idea)
So 90% average skill instructor with a 'normal' training programme delivers 10 off 68% skilled newbies per month (but lagged), or up to 50 off 27% skill. Instructors could be set to be available as replacements themselves after x months (giving the odd skilled replacement, but of course lowering the instructor pool unless someone else finishes a tour)
For Ge in WitW wouldn't it be nice to be able to set training hours per trainee per month as well - would enable (say) +/-10% per 20 flying hours (on the above numbers) but cost an appropriate amount of fuel off the stocks... You then get a realistic 'closed loop' trashing of the airforce training programme, and another use for fuel.

I would love a cap on Air force unit morale based on 3 months rolling losses as well (ideally by command). This would be set on the chance of lasting a tour based on current loss rates. This would put a brake on trashing airforces, and also mean you couldn't ramp up pilot skill too fast when taking losses. I think BC accounts (and 8AF) do emphasize the effect crews having only 25% chance of completing a tour had.

Oh, well, maybe with War in the Whole of Europe 1939-1945 with the version 6 engine! But wouldn't be too hard to code. Maybe very hard to tune though.

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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/1/2015 7:00:07 PM   
Smirfy

 

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As far as training goes Night Fighter crews were one of the the first to suffer, I assume because their training was so intensive therefore a big drain on fuel. From June 44 Night fighter crews in training was halved.

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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/1/2015 7:54:48 PM   
sven6345789

 

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Historically the strategic bombing campaign did have an impact on the german war effort.
a) the Luftwaffe was forced to call fighters back to defend the Reich. This lead to loosing air superiority over the front. In the End the Germans stopped producing bombers because they needed to concentrate on fighter production.
b) the flak guns used to defend the Reich could not fight at the front. Every flak gun produced meant one less artillery barrel or tank gun or anti tank gun available on the front. And we are talking about several thousand guns. To shoot down one bomber around 8000 shots needed to be fired. This means ammunition once more not used at the front.
c) air superiority at day time was gained in 1944 beginning with the big week February 1944. Thereafter the Luftwaffe lost air superiority over the Reich at daytime, the fuel problems and the allied advance in France (loss of the early warning system) led to a reduction in night fighter effectivity, givin Bomber Command Control of the night sky in late 1944 ( leading to devastating attacks like Dresden, Pforzheim and Würzburg). Every fighter busy over the Reich could not challenge allied air superiority over the frontline.
d) the bombing of oil and especially the synthetic fuel plans was a strike at the Achilles heel of the Germans. This campaign had effect in late 1944. During the battle of the bulge the fuel shortages of the Germans were so bad that they had to rely on capturing allied fuel depots to get to their objectives. Without fuel planes could not fly and pilots not train, finally breaking the back of the Luftwaffe .
e) the attacks on the transportation system in late 1944 and in 1945 meant that produced parts could no longer be delivered, coal could not be transported, troops no longer shuffled around etc. as a reaction to allied bombing the Germans were forced to disperse their production. This increased the transportation problem.
These are just some points. The strategic bombing campaign did fail on one thing. It could not win the war on its own. The British dehousing strategy also was a failure considering the resources used.

The question is if you can simulate this in the game. Effects should be visible in late 1944 if you play your cards right.

_____________________________

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Letter from a U.S. Marine,November 1943

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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/1/2015 7:58:46 PM   
carlkay58

 

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decourcy2 - WitW does not expend fuel for the Axis when supply distribution is less than three hexes from a supply depot. The Allies expend fuel and trucks for all supply deliveries outside of depot hexes.

HMSWarspite - I think the ability to assign TRAINING as an air group mode is meant to allow you to control the pilot training. Unfortunately the wear and tear in operation losses are currently so high in the game that is not worth doing. I know that examining this feature for future adjustment is on the TO DO List but no idea as to its priority.

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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/1/2015 10:29:43 PM   
HMSWarspite

 

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Operational training in a unit is not what meant... the assignment of a training mission is not the same thing a all, and too micromanagement for me...

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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/2/2015 7:11:37 PM   
Smirfy

 

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Something I have noticed going over Balou's figures and a couple of tests of my own with regards the model in operation for the game with regards oil/fuel. This before I start is not a criticism of the game nor a reflection on the mechanics needed to make it work.

In real life Germany's refining capacity outstripped supply by about one third (except in the field off aviation fuel were the exponential growth of the Luftwaffe, its intensity of operations coupled with the oils suitable for refining for the purpose and the numbers of plants capable of doing it meant aviation fuel was always in short supply. )

Germany basically refined every drop of oil she got, the stockpiles or reserves she built up were generally in the processed fuel and through economies, whether Gasoline, Diesel, Fuel Oil or Aviation. Because the synthetic oil plants sat on top coalfields transport bombing did not disrupt production only distribution. (Mining of the Danube and Transport bombing disrupted oilfield production eg Polesti reaching refineries)

In game the model runs a huge oil production surplus and the historical large capacity in refining. The surplus of oil production that can be built up in the first thirty turns is a large one this gives the model a significant margin for error and plenty of redundancy.


With regards it's relation to strategic bombing v Tactical bombing whilst Allied bombing practically had an instant effect on supply you are probably talking a 60 turn campaign to bring Germany to her start position on oil which equates to 2/3 of the game.


It is noted that historically it was the Luftwaffe (outside the oil starvation of the Italian and German surface fleet) that suffered first and most.





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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/2/2015 7:40:21 PM   
Balou


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Smirfy

In game the model runs a huge oil production surplus ....



WitW:

Axis produces 260000 t of oil per week. Capacity of fuel refineries for processing oil is 166000 tons. In other words, the Axis has a surplus 94000 t of oil per week or 56% of its overall oil production.

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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/2/2015 7:57:44 PM   
decourcy2

 

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Which is historically incorrect; the Axis had refining capacity to spare.
Same with Japan in the Pacific.

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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/2/2015 9:06:17 PM   
Red Lancer


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So what are the accurate figures. We could adjust multipliers to address the issue.

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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/2/2015 11:19:37 PM   
Smirfy

 

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Probably the best way, the problem with that figures whilst generally accurate are hard to translate into game terms because the German oil industry was so diverse from sources to finished product. All the official reports just seem to concentrate on finished product for their conclusions. If you get that finished product ie fuel a 10% surplus your consumption in 43 your in the historical ball park then you can ajust on game balance. There will always be resource production so fuel will always have a certain degree of built in redundancy.

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Post #: 80
RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/3/2015 3:45:02 PM   
Balou


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Red Lancer,

Right now doing some research (oil, fuel), but it'll take some time. Fortunately, a lot of the available sources are in german (my first language). Troubles are twofold: first, the term "oil" obviously has various meanings, second, despite lots of figures, these are often either estimates or hard to interpret for an outsider. Somehow, overall figures in WitW could be too high: overall german "mineral oil" (see what I mean ?) production prior to the start of the bombing campaign - should be mid 1943- was 11000k (including 5700k of "synthetic products"). The corresponding figures in WitW are (weekly production x 52) 12880k overall and 8600k synthetic.

One more thing: difficulties in understanding the "SBP date adjustment divisor". The Vic-Screen VP figures for allied bombing should (?) give the values following adjustment. If it says 10 bombing VPs and the divisor is say 9, does it mean that in fact I got 10x9=90 points in the first place ? 90 ? A 30 point factory with a 100% damage would give only 3 VPs ! What am I missing ?


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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/3/2015 4:58:45 PM   
decourcy2

 

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And 50% of oil, more or less, is what in America we call 'fuel oil' which is largely used in home heating, ships, and industrial furnace operations.

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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/3/2015 5:00:49 PM   
Great_Ajax


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The crippling of the German transportation network in the fall and winter of 1944 was the decisive blow to the German economy thru strategic bombing. Equipment and resources could not be loaded/unloaded at smashed raillyards efficiently and the waterways had been successfully interdicted. The weakness of the German economy was that is relied on coal for power and once the coal shipments reduced to a minimal level, so did production output of all kinds. Strategic bombing on other types of targets had an impact but were not decisive as the Germans found ways to mitigate the damage.

Trey

_____________________________

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Sabre 21's perpetual arch-nemisis

(in reply to Balou)
Post #: 83
RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/3/2015 5:19:04 PM   
Balou


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el hefe,
Atm, I am more interested at what was there in the summer of 1943, because that's when WitW starts. What follows, what's damaged or destroyed, is up to the player.

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Post #: 84
RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/3/2015 5:35:06 PM   
Great_Ajax


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I don't have the link handy but do a search for "The United States Strategic Bombing Survey" Summary Report dated 30 September 1945.

Trey

quote:

ORIGINAL: Balou

el hefe,
Atm, I am more interested at what was there in the summer of 1943, because that's when WitW starts. What follows, what's damaged or destroyed, is up to the player.



_____________________________

"You want mercy!? I'm chaotic neutral!"

WiTE Scenario Designer
WitW Scenario/Data Team Lead
Sabre 21's perpetual arch-nemisis

(in reply to Balou)
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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/3/2015 5:38:13 PM   
Balou


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http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/AAF/USSBS/ETO-Summary.html

This one ? 43-figures hard to establish.

< Message edited by Balou -- 3/3/2015 6:40:11 PM >

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Post #: 86
RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/3/2015 5:52:08 PM   
Great_Ajax


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Thats the one. "The Strategic Air War Against Germany 1939-1945" The Official Report of the British Bombing Survey Unit has some good charts and tables by year, type and location..

Trey

quote:

ORIGINAL: Balou

http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/AAF/USSBS/ETO-Summary.html

This one ? 43-figures hard to establish.



_____________________________

"You want mercy!? I'm chaotic neutral!"

WiTE Scenario Designer
WitW Scenario/Data Team Lead
Sabre 21's perpetual arch-nemisis

(in reply to Balou)
Post #: 87
RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/3/2015 6:12:27 PM   
Smirfy

 

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Try this its quite an amazing narrative as well

http://cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/cdm/compoundobject/collection/p4013coll8/id/2085/rec/1

< Message edited by Smirfy -- 3/3/2015 7:12:37 PM >

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Post #: 88
RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/3/2015 6:32:32 PM   
Balou


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Most appreciated, thanks.

(in reply to Smirfy)
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RE: Strat bombing of Axis oil & fuel - 3/3/2015 6:32:47 PM   
Smirfy

 

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End of 43 1,120,000 of Fuel (Aviation, Diesel and Gasoline) The Diesel figure is deceptive most was for use with the Uboats

(in reply to Smirfy)
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