ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
I generally try to avoid using an O-chit on France, but have from time to time, often if the weather has not cooperated and I am behind schedule.
As for the French being done in this scenario, They may be down, but they are not out.
We can't see all the units, but I'd move whatever is under the 4-1 gar West, the 5-3 and the 4-5 to the hex with the LeO, the 3-5 to where the 4-5 was. Then I would likely displace the Bf 109 E-2 with the other unit under the 3-5 and move the unit under the 5-3 to where the 3-5 is. I'd also pull the french units in Belgium back into France.
Why do all that? Because when there is an opportunity for the French to do so, I attack! I figure that France is toast anyway. But if I can kill that 7-5 Arm and possibly the 2 units with the 2-6, or with good air disruption, maybe even the 9-4 stack (unlikely, but if I could disrupt all three!?!), go for it!
For this reason I would never, ever, leave an Arm or Mech alone in a hex where the French would get 3 or 4 hexes on it, and probable not under any circumstances. Once France is sure to be conquered why not attack every German you can get 1-1 on and hope for the best?
Your mileage may vary.
A bunch of those German units we can't see have to be air units. So while it looks like it is a lone 7 point armor (and 9 points of armor from the two units in the other hex) they could quite easily become double their printed strength when attacked. Even with 4 hexes, France would have to use a lot of units to attack 14 defensive factors at anything resembling decent odds. Taking 2 or 3 French units off the map and disorganizing the rest of the attackers would be sure to make the German player weep for joy.
The reason to not attack is to drag out each turn as long as possible. If you can get to the end of the turn without France having been conquered, it would be a major victory. An early end to France in a turn gives Germany extra impulses to start shifting units to other fronts (e.g., Russia). It always takes Germany many impulses to move its massive army and air force east - be it for taking out the Balkans or for an early attack on the USSR.
In this example it is the first impulse of May/June. To me the fact that it is the first impulse is the key. If I don't attack does anyone really think that the Germans won't have Paris by the end of the turn? Or at least have a reasonable attack on it (which, sure, they could get a poor roll on)?
Regarding air, yes, that certainly make a big difference. I do read that, "If only the Stukas had successfully hit the CW MOT to the east..." which indicates a prior use of air this impulse. Could they have been re-org'd, sure, but maybe the player didn't want to flip his HQs so early in the turn. My point being it is an unknown as we discuss it here.
Of course what is going on elsewhere in Europe has an impact on decisions. I will say that I have very rarely seen Germany not have time to do what it wanted for the lack of a few impulses. A few turns, yes, impulses no. If, as France, I have the opportunity to cause Germany 12+ BP of losses vs. a couple of impulses till Paris falls, that is an easy choice for me. Which will set Germany back more, those couple of impulses, or having to rebuild those Panzer units?
Perhaps if I knew my German player will go for a complete conquest if the circumstances are in his favor I might not attack as readily. Maybe. But my bias is that the destruction of expensive and long to produce units will set Germany back much more than delaying the Fall of France by a couple of impulses.
One last point, for me, if I am attacking as France, I don't need "decent odds". 1-1 is good enough when my goal is only to cause enemy losses regardless of what happens to me.
Your Mileage May Vary!