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SOVIET UNION 1941 MOBILE VARIANT AAR

 
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SOVIET UNION 1941 MOBILE VARIANT AAR - 9/11/2014 8:06:09 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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This is an AAR for analysis of my test of my “Soviet Union 1941 Mobile Variant” scenario. As I did with the “Soviet Union 1941” AAR, I’ll play both sides in hot seat (“changing hats” each player turn).

Also, my description of the original scenario in the “Soviet Union 1941”AAR deserves repeating with a few exceptions, so you may wish to review that, first. That AAR is located here:

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=1893814

To recap, that scenario was played to a draw and reproduced the historical campaign quite accurately. I’m sure that I’m starting from a good base.

Before we start, let’s review the modified scenario’s changes. This scenario investigates the hypothetical idea that the Germans fully motorize before the start of Barbarossa.

1. German Force Changes: In the original, most German units were foot-bound. Here, they have been almost all been converted to motorized via the addition of trucks. The assumption is that the truck looting that the Germans did after Barbarossa was done before, instead. A small sample have been left foot-bound, to deal with the badlands locations on the map (since TOAW still lacks a “dismount” feature).

2. Victory Point Penalty: Since the above will mean that the Germans can’t do post-Barbarossa truck looting, they have been penalized an additional 100 VPs at the start.

3. Overextended Threshold Level: This scenario was made with TOAW III version 3.6 (and played with version 3.6.0.98), and therefore can apply one of the new supply features. The Overextended Supply Threshold Level is 4, meaning that all locations with location supply levels of 3 or less are “overextended”. That will tend to limit the ability of the Axis to advance into such locations without first recovering a lot of unit supply.

4. Axis Force Supply Level: To model the additional petrol needed by the fully-motorized Germans, the Axis Force Supply Level has been reduced 10% from 30 to 27. That may not seem like much, but remember that most logistical weight is ammo, the additional trucks only amount to a 50% increase, and even those trucks will not be operated as heavily as the logistical trucks (which make continuous round trips). So, maybe a 25% increase in petrol needs translates into a 10% reduction in total supply level.

The changes may not seem like much. The trucks add nothing to the combat strengths of the German units, and the other three changes are detrimental to the Axis. Yet, as this test will show, the effect on the campaign is incredible.

Note that this scenario is not yet publicly available as of post time – awaiting the release of TOAW III version 3.6.

Let’s get started.

< Message edited by Curtis Lemay -- 9/11/2014 9:06:57 PM >
Post #: 1
Turn 1 - 9/11/2014 8:08:57 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the Finnish front at the end of turn 1. Less progress was made than in the original scenario test. The Finns have not been motorized and the attacks toward Leningrad actually failed – those lines of advance will probably have to be postponed indefinitely. The Arctic section will not be shown, since little happens there.




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RE: Turn 1 - 9/11/2014 8:09:53 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the main front at the end of turn 1. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference. I actually played this turn rather poorly – getting only four combat phases. That was because I forgot what the proper attack posture was for this opening move. I had thought it was ignore losses when it should have been minimize losses. Nevertheless, the results are far better than what I had achieved in the original scenario’s test – where I had played much more skillfully. That’s the value of mobility.

In their turn, the Soviets are trying the same defensive strategy that served in the original test. Maybe a deeper retreat would have been better, but I doubt either strategy would have mattered in the end. A faster retreat means the Germans arrive at the tipping point locations that much sooner.




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Turn 2 - 9/11/2014 8:11:08 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the Finnish front at the end of turn 2. Progress continues in some areas. The main offensive towards Leningrad has been abandoned.




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RE: Turn 2 - 9/11/2014 8:12:06 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the northern front at the end of turn 2. In the original, only spearheads had reached about this far, and pockets of resistance were left in the rear. Here, the whole main body is ready to strike on, and the rear areas have been mostly cleared.

The Soviets can do nothing but try to save some units as they fall back. No real defense can be prepared.




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RE: Turn 2 - 9/11/2014 8:12:58 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the southern front at the end of turn 2. In the original, the advance had been delayed by surviving Soviet units and wasn’t as far. There were further Soviets in defender positions ahead of the Kiev defense line. Here, the advance is ahead of historical, and the path to that defense line is clear

The Soviets can barely get a defense line set up for Kiev.




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Turn 3 - 9/11/2014 8:13:52 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the Finnish front at the end of turn 3. Progress continues, except towards Leningrad.




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RE: Turn 3 - 9/11/2014 8:14:33 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the northern front at the end of turn 3. In the original, the Soviets had set up a pretty formidable defense from Pskov to Mogilev. Here, the Germans have already blitzed past those lines and face little remaining opposition short of Leningrad and Moscow.




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RE: Turn 3 - 9/11/2014 8:15:29 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the southern front at the end of turn 3. The Germans are nearly ready to start the attack on the Kiev defenses. They were still dealing with delayers in the original.

The Soviets continue to try to flesh out their defense line, but in the original, full armies were available. Here, the defenders are mostly corps. And there has been no time to get to full fortified.




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Turn 4 - 9/11/2014 8:16:32 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the Finnish front at the end of turn 4. Progress continues, but has not kept up with the pace that was achieved in the original.




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RE: Turn 4 - 9/11/2014 8:17:14 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the northern front at the end of turn 4. In the original, the Germans had only just breached the Pskov-Mogilev line. Here, they are far beyond it.

The Soviets scramble to set up any sort of defense of Moscow. The unit in Novgorod has blown the bridge in the hex. Since it contains badlands, only a foot unit can attack it. That’s a problem for the Germans, who have little of those in position. This is good use of the terrain by the Soviets. The Axis player must anticipate this and be judicious in how he distributes his few foot units.




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RE: Turn 4 - 9/11/2014 8:18:06 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the southern front at the end of turn 4. In the original, the Axis forces still hadn’t gotten into place to begin any sort of assault on the Kiev defenses. Here, an entire swath of the line has already been destroyed in the south, with no backup in place to even delay the breakthrough. In the north, no real defense ever made it into place. What little was there has now been blown away.

In the original (and historically) the armor from AGC had to be sent south to help out with Kiev. That won’t be the case here. That leaves AGC free to move on Moscow.

The Soviets around Kiev can only dig in and hope to delay a bit. They don’t have the mobility to run.




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Turn 5 - 9/11/2014 8:19:42 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the northern front at the end of turn 5. The Finns continue to advance east of Lake Lagoda while the advance of AGN has put Novgorod out of supply. That will eventually allow the foot corps now in place to dislodge it.




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RE: Turn 5 - 9/11/2014 8:20:41 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the central front at the end of turn 5. In the original, the Germans were just breaching the defenses in front of Smolensk and a strong defense line had formed behind that position, well in front of Moscow. Here, the Germans have already arrived at the gates of Moscow. There, the Soviets have a few good defenders in Fortified Terrain. But will it withstand the full force of AGC?




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RE: Turn 5 - 9/11/2014 8:21:35 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the southern front at the end of turn 5. In the original, the Axis were still getting into place to start the attack on the Kiev defenses. Here that defense has already been shredded. The remaining parts are already pocketed. Spearheads are already moving beyond that defense into the heart of the Ukrainian VPs – capturing an undefended Dnepropetrovsk.




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Turn 6 - 9/11/2014 8:22:47 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the northern front at the end of turn 6. In the original, Leningrad still hadn’t been invested. Here, even the Lagoda Supply hex has been placed out of supply. It is sure to fall soon. Then Leningrad will follow. Note that the unit that had been holding Novgorod has been dislodged by a foot unit after it was left unsupplied for a bit.




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RE: Turn 6 - 9/11/2014 8:23:41 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the central front at the end of turn 6. The fortified hex in front of Moscow has been captured. Can Moscow itself be next?




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RE: Turn 6 - 9/11/2014 8:24:28 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the southern front at the end of turn 6. All that is left of the Kiev defenses is a pocket around Kiev. A large part of AGS is being sent on to the battle for Moscow upcoming. The Soviets have rushed defenders into the eastern Ukraine to make some effort to delay the Axis blitz there. The entrance to the Crimea has been breached. When Sevastopol falls, Odessa will lose its supply point and quickly wither.




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Turn 7 - 9/11/2014 8:25:49 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the northern front at the end of turn 7. The Lagoda Supply hex has been cleared but not occupied.




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RE: Turn 7 - 9/11/2014 8:26:28 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the central front at the end of turn 7. The Germans have blitzed into Moscow!! The Soviet armies around Moscow were reorganizing and couldn’t make any effort to retake it (my tests showed that they wouldn’t have been successful even if they could have tried).




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RE: Turn 7 - 9/11/2014 8:27:14 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the southern front at the end of turn 7. Kiev has fallen and Sevastopol has been reached. In the original, Odessa was taken by the Romanians at great cost. Here, they may as well as wait for Sevastopol to fall and walk in.




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Turn 8 - 9/11/2014 8:28:12 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGN front at the end of turn 8. The Lagoda Supply hex has been captured. The supply point in Leningrad will be removed four turns later and the Leningrad hex will probably be sufficiently degraded by that in another four turns. Regardless, its fall is now certain.




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RE: Turn 8 - 9/11/2014 8:28:57 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the central front at the end of turn 8. The forces in Moscow have been bolstered sufficiently that there is no chance of it being retaken. Other German forces are concentrating on a pincer movement to pocket the entire Moscow defenses (they’re too strong to take frontally).




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RE: Turn 8 - 9/11/2014 8:29:49 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the southern front at the end of turn 8. Sevastopol is now invested and should fall next turn. Meanwhile, a limited offensive is having some success in the eastern Ukraine, capturing Stalino, among other sites.




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Turn 9 - 9/11/2014 8:30:42 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the northern front at the end of turn 9. Leningrad remains invested, while a few Axis units move to try to roll up the northern end of the Soviet front lines.




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RE: Turn 9 - 9/11/2014 8:31:33 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the central front at the end of turn 9. The pincer attacks have made some progress. The southern pincer has eliminated the army-sized defenders and now faces little opposition to completing the task.

Attempting to extract the Soviet defenders around Moscow would be futile due to the lack of relative mobility and ZOCs. It would only ruin their defensive stance. So, as at Kiev, the best they can do is hunker down and hope to delay the German advance for a bit.




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RE: Turn 9 - 9/11/2014 8:32:30 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the southern front at the end of turn 9. Sevastopol has been captured. The Odessa supply point will be removed next turn. Elsewhere, the offensive in eastern Ukraine has had some more success due to the unevenness of the Soviet defenses. Weak points were exploited to render strong points out of supply.




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Turn 10 - 9/11/2014 8:33:31 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the northern front at the end of turn 10. The rupture of the Finnish front has now resulted in the ends of the Soviet lines being flanked and rendered unsupplied. That will have an effect later, as they wither.




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RE: Turn 10 - 9/11/2014 8:34:17 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the central front at the end of turn 10. The pincers slowly advance.




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RE: Turn 10 - 9/11/2014 8:35:19 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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The attached screenshot shows the situation on the southern front at the end of turn 10. Odessa is now unsupplied, but needs a bit more attrition before the Romanians will have the margin to take it. Eastern Ukraine is being gobbled up. Soon, forces will arrive in Rostov’s rear from the Crimea, too.




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