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RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (A) vs. Q-Ball (J)

 
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RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/21/2014 7:11:07 PM   
Encircled


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From: Northern England
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I read my allied opponent by tea leaves, while clutching a rabbits foot and sacrificing to whatever Deity worked last turn.



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Post #: 151
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/21/2014 7:55:27 PM   
Mike McCreery


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Panjack

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Sounds like he took pity on you and didn't strat bomb industry either.

Q-Ball CLAIMS he didn't want to lose any more bombers to AA. But given that he's bent over backwards in our communications to be helpful, I think your interpretation is likely very plausible.

Among the helpful things he said about this sad situation at Sydney was that he guessed I had carriers at Sydney because of all the DDs I had performing ASW around the port, information he obviously gleaned from his subs around the port. I don't know if he intended to give anything away, but that information is very helpful and indicates how Japan can get useful information from unthoughtful Allied activities.

I now know I need to be careful, when I have carriers in port, about my "activity signature." Lots of DD around, carrier AC doing search/ASW, or anything else associated with carriers or big ships (say, a huge order of gray paint from Home Depot) a skilled player like Q-Ball will note and draw a conclusion about what ships are where. But knowing how the Japanese player reads these particular tea leaves, the Allied player can consider generating "false tea leaves" when it suits the Allied player. Boy, this game is deep.

I know the skilled players here already know this about tea leaves and false tea leaves, but incidents like the sad situation at Sydney provides the best teaching moment for beginners like me.


He is right but typically you are going to have ASW assets around major ports. Usually float planes but other ships are not uncommon. It might be because you dont have float planes/Asw assets anywhere else ;]

Yes... When I want to confuse my opponent I sometimes bang the pots and pans... If you have a number of ports with shipping sitting around and also troops with nothing better to do you can load and unload them. This generates sigint that is sometimes picked up by the Japanese. So, if you are planning something out of pearl harbor it doesnt hurt to make noise at Sydney and Columbo, etc. Misdirection and Fog of War are quite a big part of this game.



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Post #: 152
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/21/2014 8:57:44 PM   
Panjack

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled
I read my allied opponent by tea leaves, while clutching a rabbits foot and sacrificing to whatever Deity worked last turn.

Truly a helpful suggestion. I will do the same forthwith!

(in reply to Encircled)
Post #: 153
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/21/2014 9:01:14 PM   
Panjack

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
He is right but typically you are going to have ASW assets around major ports. Usually float planes but other ships are not uncommon. It might be because you dont have float planes/Asw assets anywhere else ;]

That be it! At this stage of the game I'd happily turn in a CL for a good DD.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
Yes... When I want to confuse my opponent I sometimes bang the pots and pans... If you have a number of ports with shipping sitting around and also troops with nothing better to do you can load and unload them. This generates sigint that is sometimes picked up by the Japanese. So, if you are planning something out of pearl harbor it doesnt hurt to make noise at Sydney and Columbo, etc....

Filed away for future use.





(in reply to Mike McCreery)
Post #: 154
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/21/2014 9:16:52 PM   
Cribtop


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Panjack, you could augment your aerial nav search with picket ships placed 10ish hexes out from relevant ports as well. They will detect incoming enemy carriers and give a warning. However, IMHO it is gamey to use non-warships (e.g. useless xAKLs) for this purpose. Historically, warships were used for this purpose.

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Post #: 155
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/21/2014 9:24:14 PM   
Panjack

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
Panjack, you could augment your aerial nav search with picket ships placed 10ish hexes out from relevant ports as well. They will detect incoming enemy carriers and give a warning. However, IMHO it is gamey to use non-warships (e.g. useless xAKLs) for this purpose. Historically, warships were used for this purpose.

Good idea. The call for volunteers to crew such ships has now gone out. A tactics and strategy manual for this game would run, what, a thousand pages?

(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 156
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/22/2014 12:42:55 AM   
Panjack

 

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December 31, 1941
-------------------

My only hope at this point is that Q-Ball comes down with a bad case of Repetitive Invasion Injury, and so has to take a break from what he’s doing. Japan just landed on (and will take with no problem) Port Moresby, Lunga, and Tabiteuea. The previous turn he landed on Koepang and Luganville. The full extent of Japan’s expansion is indicated in the map below.

He can move where he wants, when he wants. For instance, the invasion TF that landed at Port Moresby this turn was accompanied by 2BB, 4CA, 3 CL, and 8 DD. I had a small CL group nearby but I could tell Q-Ball’s invasion force was packing some real heat and, so, I had my CLs admire the invasion from a great distance.

The only good news for the Allies this turn is that the SS Sturgeon put a torpedo into a modern Japanese DD and it might have sunk.





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Post #: 157
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/22/2014 2:50:59 AM   
Cribtop


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He can indeed, but KB can't shepherd that many invasions in that many places. You know where KB is, interrupt an invasion where it isn't. Force him to cover those invasions against surface and air threat and he will have to slow down a bit.



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Post #: 158
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/23/2014 4:46:56 AM   
Panjack

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

He can indeed, but KB can't shepherd that many invasions in that many places. You know where KB is, interrupt an invasion where it isn't. Force him to cover those invasions against surface and air threat and he will have to slow down a bit.

As urged on my folks here, I have a couple of CL and CA TFs placed to pounce on places Q-Ball might invade. I'm keeping my fingers crossed!

(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 159
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/23/2014 5:33:52 AM   
Panjack

 

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January 1, 1942
------------------
High point of the day: a submarine-placed mine hit an AO in Rabaul. It ain't much, but I'll take it.

In China, what promises to be a big slugging match has started at 1, but at this point includes only bombardment by Japan. Who knows how long that will go on. A second slugging match will likely occur at 2, where I am gathering my forces. Japanese units advancing up the road paused for a day or so, which gave my units time to move towards 2, which seems like a good place for me to do battle. And now Q-Ball seems to be moving toward 3. The last couple of turns he has sent bombers to hit units at 3 and the unit now between Japanese forces and 3 and units now seem on the march toward 3. Again, 3 seems like a good place for me to do battle. He's also continuing to bombard near Changsha but this seems just an attempt to convince me to keep forces there, instead of my using these forces as reserves or to shore up weak points in China. I'm pulling back some units from the Changsha area and moving them toward 3 and elsewhere further away.

Although only minor skirmishes have occurred so far in China, total supply in China has declined by over 13% over the past 10 days (104,000 --> 90,000). Just feeding men, taking a few replacements, flying occasional bombing and recon missions, and moving LCUs around takes more than what China is able to generate in supply. It's scary to think about what will happen to Chinese supply once serious fighting breaks out.




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< Message edited by Panjack -- 9/23/2014 6:36:27 AM >

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Post #: 160
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/23/2014 6:02:02 AM   
Panjack

 

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Now to Burma.

Burma will soon be welcoming a handful of Chinese units, at 1 and 2. I can only move a few Chinese units into Burma as 95% are permanently restricted to China. I'm moving them into Burma, in part, so they eat and drink and are merry on Burmese supply rather than Chinese supply. I hope they like the food.

At the lower left, at 3, are Japanese units moving to attack Pegu. These Japanese units are reported to include 83 AFV. In Pegu and Rangoon I have only a couple of AT guns. Not a fair fight, I say. Frankly, I don't really have much in Burma. Therefore, on a lark, I loaded up the 50th Tank Bde at Calcutta and they will soon arrive, being transported by the ships at 4. Starting this turn LRCAP will be over these ships. I know it's a risk to move them into Rangoon at this stage, but in the last week air attacks on Rangoon have fallen off in the face of pretty good Allied CAP. Of some concern is that some Japanese mines have been placed at Rangoon, but my local minesweeper seems to be doing a good job getting rid of those pesky things.




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Post #: 161
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/24/2014 5:28:59 AM   
Panjack

 

Posts: 380
Joined: 7/12/2009
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January 2 and 3, 1942
---------------------

Most notable event was a big stack attack by Japanese units on the road to Sian, the results of which are below. It went as well as I could have hoped for. This was the first setback for Japan since the beginning of the war. Other places Japan is soon to attack are less well-defended. No reason they should turn out as well for me.

Ground combat at 84,43 (near Nanyang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 25131 troops, 234 guns, 285 vehicles, Assault Value = 856
Defending force 38839 troops, 189 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 938

Japanese adjusted assault: 428
Allied adjusted defense: 1249

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
410 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 70 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 12 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Vehicles lost 24 (2 destroyed, 22 disabled) Take THAT you fancy tank units!

Allied ground losses:
744 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 126 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 43 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 15 disabled

Assaulting units:
9th Tank Regiment
36th Division
37th Division
3rd Tank Regiment
11th Tank Regiment
11th Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
92nd Chinese Corps
13th Chinese Corps
47th Chinese Corps
36th Chinese Corps
4th Construction Regiment
5th War Area
34th Group Army

(in reply to Panjack)
Post #: 162
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/24/2014 10:50:29 PM   
Panjack

 

Posts: 380
Joined: 7/12/2009
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So the Philippines are stumbling to a forgone conclusion. Here's what's where:

Clark Field: 885 AV and 36,886 of the permitted 40,000 troops. We're using stacking limits.
Bataan: 679 AV and 44,958 of the permitted 45,000 troops.
Subic Bay: 0 AV and 1,287 of 45,000 permitted troops.
Manila: In Japanese hands.

Question: What happens if LCUs in Clark Field are forced to retreat? Can I assume they'd just flood into Subic Bay, where plenty of room exists for them? Or, will some of them rush past the No Vacancy sign posted at Bataan and cause overstacking problems?




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Post #: 163
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/24/2014 11:06:16 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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You need to show the hexside ownership.

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Post #: 164
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/24/2014 11:07:23 PM   
Panjack

 

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Second question: Let's say I want to switch out some tired, poor, and hungry LCU in Clark Field for some LCU in Bataan. Would I accomplish this simply by telling the TP&H LCU in Clark and an equal sized unit (and equally speedy, so both infantry or both armor) in Bataan to simultaneously move to the other place? Will they pass each other and arrive at their new destinations without causing overstacking in one of the hexes?

(in reply to Panjack)
Post #: 165
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/24/2014 11:09:23 PM   
Panjack

 

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You mean this?




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Post #: 166
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/25/2014 12:03:34 AM   
Sangeli


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Panjack
Question: What happens if LCUs in Clark Field are forced to retreat? Can I assume they'd just flood into Subic Bay, where plenty of room exists for them? Or, will some of them rush past the No Vacancy sign posted at Bataan and cause overstacking problems?

I think there is a chance they could go to either. I'm not really sure. But you may lose Subic bay soon so it could be a mute point.
quote:

ORIGINAL: Panjack
Second question: Let's say I want to switch out some tired, poor, and hungry LCU in Clark Field for some LCU in Bataan. Would I accomplish this simply by telling the TP&H LCU in Clark and an equal sized unit (and equally speedy, so both infantry or both armor) in Bataan to simultaneously move to the other place? Will they pass each other and arrive at their new destinations without causing overstacking in one of the hexes?

Ya, that's what I usually do. They will pass eachother as if they were never in the same hex at the same time.

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Post #: 167
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/25/2014 1:26:06 AM   
Panjack

 

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Joined: 7/12/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sangeli
...But you may lose Subic bay soon so it could be a mute point....

You're right about that. I guess I really have no choice but to send some folks from Clark Field to Subic Bay to do battle with the approaching troops and keep the hex side from Clark to Subic Bay in Allied hands. If I lose Subic, then any retreat from Clark will go into Bataan and bad things will happen from overstacking, I suppose. I need Subic Bay to have a place to have some of my defeated troops from Clark have a place to go to die where they do the least harm to Bataan...so the last stand at Bataan might last a week longer!

And thanks for other info too.

(in reply to Sangeli)
Post #: 168
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/25/2014 11:23:16 AM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Panjack

You mean this?





Yes, but as I was taught in my first AAR, after you hit the hotkey you need to move the cursor away from the target hex, else you get those white hexsides.

As other shave said I think a retreat path would be a coin flip.

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Post #: 169
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/25/2014 4:47:56 PM   
Sangeli


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Panjack

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sangeli
...But you may lose Subic bay soon so it could be a mute point....

You're right about that. I guess I really have no choice but to send some folks from Clark Field to Subic Bay to do battle with the approaching troops and keep the hex side from Clark to Subic Bay in Allied hands. If I lose Subic, then any retreat from Clark will go into Bataan and bad things will happen from overstacking, I suppose. I need Subic Bay to have a place to have some of my defeated troops from Clark have a place to go to die where they do the least harm to Bataan...so the last stand at Bataan might last a week longer!

And thanks for other info too.

If you really want to make the Bataan defense last as long as possible then maybe you willingly retreat the worst half of your units from Clark to Subic and the best half to Bataan. I usually pull back from Clark Field when the fort hits 0 anyway. However, I usually have Manila and the Japanese have to take Manila but at Subic they could just move in a small LCU and lay siege to whatever is left for as long as they like. Although most JFBs will probably just try to take it b/c its there.

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Post #: 170
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/25/2014 5:42:16 PM   
HansBolter


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I have played at least 6 game starts now with extended map and have never seen a retreat from Clark to Subic. It has always been to Bataan.

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Post #: 171
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/25/2014 6:36:59 PM   
Panjack

 

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Sangeli and HansBolter: thanks for the information/suggestions.

Looks like the School of HardKnocks is about to teach me a lesson about stacking limits in the PI. I'm moving some units toward Subic Bay and Iba (both hexsides are open). Knowing what I know now, I certainly would have organized things differently in the PI from the beginning; stuffing Clark Field and Bataan to the gills with soldiers was a big mistake.

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Post #: 172
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/25/2014 6:39:20 PM   
Mike McCreery


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Panjack

Sangeli and HansBolter: thanks for the information/suggestions.

Looks like the School of HardKnocks is about to teach me a lesson about stacking limits in the PI. I'm moving some units toward Subic Bay and Iba (both hexsides are open). Knowing what I know now, I certainly would have organized things differently in the PI from the beginning; stuffing Clark Field and Bataan to the gills with soldiers was a big mistake.



Actually, in the long run it wont matter one bit.

Your troops are going to die and the Japanese will take over the island resulting in a certain number of VP lost. If your defenses had been perfectly balanced the troops would die and Japan would take over the island.

So, again.. dont beat yourself up ;]



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Post #: 173
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/25/2014 6:46:13 PM   
Panjack

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Yes, but as I was taught in my first AAR, after you hit the hotkey you need to move the cursor away from the target hex, else you get those white hexsides.

I'm pretty sure those white lines around Clark Field are the soldiers of my low morale units, of which I have many, holding up white flags...so many you can see them from space!

Alternatively, thanks for the pointer about that cursor.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 174
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/25/2014 6:57:10 PM   
Panjack

 

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Joined: 7/12/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
So, again.. dont beat yourself up ;]

Yes I must!: last week I bought the Costco 10-pack of Kirkland Medieval Hairshirts, and I need to find reasons to wear them!

(I guess a Costco reference won't necessarily carry over to people outside the US, but, hey.)

Actually I like these semi-debacles, of which I've had many so far only some of which have been reported here in part because some are still on-going and real jaw-droppers. They firmly plant in my head certain things I will be more likely to remember in the future.

(in reply to Mike McCreery)
Post #: 175
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/25/2014 7:09:10 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Panjack


(I guess a Costco reference won't necessarily carry over to people outside the US, but, hey.)



Their large jar of fancy mixed nuts is really quite impressive. I ask Santa for one every year.

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Post #: 176
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/25/2014 7:14:01 PM   
EHansen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: Panjack


(I guess a Costco reference won't necessarily carry over to people outside the US, but, hey.)



Their large jar of fancy mixed nuts is really quite impressive. I ask Santa for one every year.

Do you ask for the mixed nuts for Rocky?

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 177
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/25/2014 9:08:57 PM   
Sangeli


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Joined: 3/29/2012
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
Actually, in the long run it wont matter one bit.

Your troops are going to die and the Japanese will take over the island resulting in a certain number of VP lost. If your defenses had been perfectly balanced the troops would die and Japan would take over the island.

So, again.. dont beat yourself up ;]

No, it definitely does matter. After Luzon the Japanese can redeploy them for another offensive. If this can be done while the amphibious bonus is still active, this enables the Japanese to go for one last big offensive where they don't need any prep at all. And since Luzon often falls around early March, it can really come down the the wire. Even a week could be the difference here.

(in reply to Mike McCreery)
Post #: 178
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/25/2014 10:00:35 PM   
Mike McCreery


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
Actually, in the long run it wont matter one bit.

Your troops are going to die and the Japanese will take over the island resulting in a certain number of VP lost. If your defenses had been perfectly balanced the troops would die and Japan would take over the island.

So, again.. dont beat yourself up ;]

No, it definitely does matter. After Luzon the Japanese can redeploy them for another offensive. If this can be done while the amphibious bonus is still active, this enables the Japanese to go for one last big offensive where they don't need any prep at all. And since Luzon often falls around early March, it can really come down the the wire. Even a week could be the difference here.


The difference between what and what?


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Post #: 179
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/25/2014 10:33:10 PM   
Sangeli


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Joined: 3/29/2012
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
The difference between what and what?

Between a Japanese landing unloading at 1200 points with the bonus and 250 points per ship per turn without it. And of course the corresponding disruption from non-prepped landings. In an opposed landing this might make all the difference...or may not!

(in reply to Mike McCreery)
Post #: 180
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