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RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (A) vs. Q-Ball (J)

 
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RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/19/2014 5:10:42 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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Q-Ball has a long, well-documented record here in multiple AARs. He's no rookie.

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The Moose

(in reply to Sangeli)
Post #: 121
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/19/2014 5:53:52 PM   
Sangeli


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Q-Ball has a long, well-documented record here in multiple AARs. He's no rookie.

I know...I'm just trying to inspire some confidence

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 122
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/19/2014 6:19:02 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

Don't do this off the bat. You need to see how the situation develops first. Just take a deep breath and see how the game develops and learn from that. Ultimately you have only one opponent and our experiences may not always be relevant to yours. China may be a breeze for you like it is for me against my long time opponent. Or it could be awful and you lose by the end of 1942. I don't know and you don't but you'll find out! If you really have this much time to worry about China you could always start another game to use up that time.


This is a great comment. I was meaning to say something along this line myself. In my opinion, the China theatre is dictated by the Japanese player, not the other way around. Being able to set up a cohesive defence depends on how much pressure the Japanese player brings to bear. That's not to say what you do doesn't matter, but an experienced Japanese player will often counter what you do. It's really hard to offer any advice when the nature of the Japanese offensive isn't known. Is he committing large amounts of armour, is he employing large numbers of bombers, etc.

I'd offer more, but I can't compromise my own ongoing PBEM with my China strategy.

Take Alfred's comments with a grain of salt. I offer my opinions based on my own game experience. Is there a better way to defend China, sure, but in my experience it all depends on how your opponent plays it. There is a counter to everything in this game, the trick is knowing what, when and how. Good luck!


< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 9/19/2014 7:20:28 PM >


_____________________________

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

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Post #: 123
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/19/2014 6:52:43 PM   
Troy6677

 

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Hi Panjack:

Interesting reading for a newbie to the game as well. My small bit of advice. Make your own plan. Stick with it. Learn from it. And just have fun.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 124
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/19/2014 8:45:03 PM   
Sangeli


Posts: 1132
Joined: 3/29/2012
From: San Francisco
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quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
I'd offer more, but I can't compromise my own ongoing PBEM with my China strategy.

Luckily for me my opponent doesn't read AARs here I think. Or I would be a lot more tight lipped.

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 125
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/19/2014 9:51:23 PM   
Panjack

 

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December 24, 25, and 26, 1941
---------
Japan continues to expand relentlessly with almost no opposition: landing over three days occurred at Davao, Lautem, Nauru Island, Balikpapan, and Tulagi. Outside the Pacific, landings are generally covered by Betties or with a CV somewhere nearby. As a result, I’ve not sent the surface ships in the area that had a chance to oppose some of the landings.

My search planes in the Aleutians constantly report large TFs of Japanese ships moving all around near Alaska and even Canada, but they have so far turned out false, clearly the result of poorly trained pilots. Yet one report seemed serious enough, and suggested the TF included a Japanese CV, that the complete Aleutian Navy fled their ports for a couple of days.

The overwhelming Japanese sweeps with follow-up bombing missions are less common and less successful now than before. The best case has been Rangoon, where I’m almost breaking even with Japan in fighter losses and one recent raid over the port saw 3 Sallies shot down. I’m running lots of supplies into Rangoon and after some initial losses of transports, most are now able to dash in, unload, and dash out. This could, of course, change at any time.

Some Chinese divisions have been bought out and are marching…slowly…into Burma. Unfortunately, due to our HRs I can only buyout Chinese infantry units that can have their HQ changed. This is only, I think, 10 units. The rest of the Chinese infantry units are stuck in China for the duration.

Japanese units are moving toward Burma and in less than a week they might make contact with Allied units defending that country. Bombs are dropping almost daily on Singapore but land units are still uninvolved in that attack.

Ship losses have been low for both sides so far, although I am saddened by the loss of TKs. My mole in the Japanese High Command has suggested the claimed sinking of the Japanese CS is based on bad intelligence. In addition to the losses below I’ve also lost 5 DD.




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(in reply to Sangeli)
Post #: 126
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/20/2014 4:17:10 PM   
Panjack

 

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December 28, 1941
--------------------

Bad day for the Allies.

While cat groups in the Aleutians report every school of fish as a major Japanese TF, the crews of my two cat groups operating out of Brisbane seem to spend their time aloft reading comic books and, so, fail to see anything no matter how big…including a raiding Japanese CV TF moving toward Sydney.

Luckily, I had read in reports from the day before that a couple of AMc operating out of Sydney were sunk by unknown means. That didn’t sound good.

Sitting in the port at Sydney were two Allied CVs, the Lexington and Enterprise.

I didn’t know what, if anything, was coming but decided, perhaps wrongly, to not put the CVs in a TF. I was concerned that CVs in a TF might react away from the AA at Sydney (even with zero react, but I wasn’t sure) and I think that CVs operating in TFs sitting in ports have reduced air operations, something I certainly didn’t want. So the two CVs sat in the port disbanded.

Other surface ships formed TFs in the chance (true?) that such ships might more effectively use their AA than if they were disbanded in port. My carrier fighters were already CAPing over Sydney from the land airbase and carrier DB and TB based on land not far away were set to naval attack.

I’m not sure I could do much else, given only a single day’s warning that something might be coming.

Luckily, Japanese carrier planes didn’t attack the CVs sitting in port. But when all is said and done, I expect I will have lost 4 DDs and will have a CA sitting in the Sydney drydock for a long time. My DBs were within range of the Japanese carriers but didn’t take off. They likely would have been slaughtered had they attacked the Japanese TF but still…

The total carnage from 6 different Japanese strikes:
DD Maury, Bomb hits 2, and is SUNK
DD Flusser, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage and, later, SUNK
DD Lamson, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires LOTs of fires burning and it might not survive.
DD Dunlap, Bomb hits 1, on fire only scratches
DD Drayton, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage SUNK
CA Chicago, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
CA Portland, Bomb hits 1

Aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 3 destroyed, 2 destroyed by flak, 13 damaged
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed, 2 destroyed by flak, 17 damaged

F2A-3 Buffalo: 2 destroyed
F4F-3A Wildcat: 1 destroyed

The sunk DDs were performing ASW between Sydney and where the Japanese CVs set up shop. Unplanned by me, these ships apparently served as sacrificial pickets as Japanese pilots just couldn’t help themselves in attacking anything floating that they came across. Four of the six Japanese air strikes attacked ASW groups instead of hitting the port at Sydney.

I assume that the Japanese carrier bomber groups have been reduced in strength enough that a second strike is unlikely, but I can't be sure.

My conclusion: Sydney isn’t a safe place particularly if you can’t trust your naval search assets and, my main takeaway, I continue to benefit from luck as the sunk DDs performing ASW very possibly saved me from a much worse outcome.

< Message edited by Panjack -- 9/20/2014 5:20:13 PM >

(in reply to Panjack)
Post #: 127
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/20/2014 4:26:11 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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His carrier attack planes barely got their hair mussed. He can attack for many more days if he wants.

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The Moose

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Post #: 128
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/20/2014 4:37:13 PM   
Panjack

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sangeli
I know...I'm just trying to inspire some confidence

I AM quite confident...confident that things will be really rough!

(in reply to Sangeli)
Post #: 129
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/20/2014 4:43:13 PM   
Panjack

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
...In my opinion, the China theatre is dictated by the Japanese player, not the other way around.

Thanks for your feedback. As far as I can tell, Q-Ball is putting lots of attention on China and he's now advancing up the road from the SE of Sian and along the parallel road going to Ankang. Looks like lots of tanks are involved in the move to Sian.

I completely understanding not posting here personal strategies and tactics....but don't hesitate to send a PM if you feel so inclined!

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 130
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/20/2014 4:44:51 PM   
Panjack

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: mvdh1

Hi Panjack:

Interesting reading for a newbie to the game as well. My small bit of advice. Make your own plan. Stick with it. Learn from it. And just have fun.

Hi Mvdh1, Yes, fun. It is great fun....but LOTS of work!

(in reply to Troy6677)
Post #: 131
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/20/2014 4:52:50 PM   
Panjack

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

His carrier attack planes barely got their hair mussed. He can attack for many more days if he wants.



But I have right and justice on my side. How can he attack again?!

It's really tricky to figure out what to do in that case. I don't see any gain having the CVs leave the AA of Sydney so I guess I'll just have to take my medicine if Q-Ball attacks again.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 132
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/20/2014 5:33:31 PM   
BBfanboy


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About your search, some experienced players have posted that anything searching beyond 12 hexes seems to rarely have success.
If you Cats are searching at max range they cannot cover the assigned arc thoroughly and will miss a lot. They will also have very high ops losses.

Getting your CVs trapped at Sydney is a common mistake for first timers - I have seen enough AARs to know that you should not use the Sydney dockyard for repair of major units until
fall of 1942 when you can have enough bombers and fighters to defend the place. You lose a few weeks time going back to PH, but your ships are much safer there.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Panjack)
Post #: 133
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/20/2014 6:55:35 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Panjack


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

His carrier attack planes barely got their hair mussed. He can attack for many more days if he wants.



But I have right and justice on my side. How can he attack again?!

It's really tricky to figure out what to do in that case. I don't see any gain having the CVs leave the AA of Sydney so I guess I'll just have to take my medicine if Q-Ball attacks again.


The best thing you can do is run anything over 30 knots at flank toward Melbourne. Then put any subs in the area in front of the KB. The Japanese can't afford a long chase down here due to fuel, and your DDs have longer legs. Sitting in Sydney is a BAD idea.

< Message edited by obvert -- 9/20/2014 7:56:09 PM >


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"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 134
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/20/2014 7:17:59 PM   
Mike McCreery


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What Obvert said *escorted as well as possible because he might have subs in the line of retreat.

< Message edited by Wargmr -- 9/20/2014 8:18:51 PM >


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Post #: 135
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/20/2014 7:35:45 PM   
Sangeli


Posts: 1132
Joined: 3/29/2012
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I like the ports between Melbourne and Perth to hold my CVs early on when they are down under. They are a bit smaller but you don't need to have CVs with full torpedoes in a big port; you need them in a safe port. Bases like Adelaide are much more safe than Sydney. And you can safely build those airbases to level 7 to upgrade air groups as well if you want.

(in reply to Mike McCreery)
Post #: 136
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/20/2014 7:39:11 PM   
Panjack

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
The best thing you can do is run anything over 30 knots at flank toward Melbourne. Then put any subs in the area in front of the KB. The Japanese can't afford a long chase down here due to fuel, and your DDs have longer legs. Sitting in Sydney is a BAD idea.

Hi Obvert. Thanks for the advice. The ships that can will hot rod away toward Melbourne.

I messed up here, and did so greatly. A blue ribbon committee will be formed to investigate this horrible mess up and will soon make a full report to the public. It will not be a pretty picture that is painted by this report.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 137
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/20/2014 7:41:49 PM   
Panjack

 

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Joined: 7/12/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
About your search, some experienced players have posted that anything searching beyond 12 hexes seems to rarely have success.
If you Cats are searching at max range they cannot cover the assigned arc thoroughly and will miss a lot. They will also have very high ops losses.

I knew enough to have the cats searching at only 12 hexes. Sadly, I was too stupid to have not arranged to have significant naval search beyond that, say operating from Noumea.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 138
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/20/2014 7:48:25 PM   
Panjack

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

What Obvert said *escorted as well as possible because he might have subs in the line of retreat.

Yes, good reminder. I'll make sure of that.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

I like the ports between Melbourne and Perth to hold my CVs early on when they are down under. They are a bit smaller but you don't need to have CVs with full torpedoes in a big port; you need them in a safe port. Bases like Adelaide are much more safe than Sydney. And you can safely build those airbases to level 7 to upgrade air groups as well if you want.

I was only at Sydney because one of my CVs had acquired some damage that required a dry dock. But as has been suggested, I should have gone back to PH for that.


(in reply to Sangeli)
Post #: 139
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/20/2014 7:52:02 PM   
Mike McCreery


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Panjack

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

What Obvert said *escorted as well as possible because he might have subs in the line of retreat.

Yes, good reminder. I'll make sure of that.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

I like the ports between Melbourne and Perth to hold my CVs early on when they are down under. They are a bit smaller but you don't need to have CVs with full torpedoes in a big port; you need them in a safe port. Bases like Adelaide are much more safe than Sydney. And you can safely build those airbases to level 7 to upgrade air groups as well if you want.

I was only at Sydney because one of my CVs had acquired some damage that required a dry dock. But as has been suggested, I should have gone back to PH for that.




Dont beat yourself up for making common mistakes most of us have obviously made as well :]


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Post #: 140
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/20/2014 8:11:51 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Panjack
The ships that can will hot rod away toward Melbourne.



Make sure they are on Full speed. Make sure you don't have any doglegs in the waypoints. Make sure they're not on Coastal routing; in my experience it seems that's a trade-off with speed. (Should be; its shallows.) Make sure you don't mix any slow ships in the TF with the carriers.

If you do all that you should run away in the night phase sufficiently to reach the Oz south coast somewhere.

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The Moose

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Post #: 141
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/20/2014 8:17:57 PM   
Sangeli


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And as far as mistakes go yours is not at all that bad. A few cruisers and destroyers is not that much. You will barely notice.

(in reply to Mike McCreery)
Post #: 142
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/20/2014 8:20:37 PM   
obvert


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Do you have a map of the current situation?

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"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 143
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/20/2014 8:36:42 PM   
Panjack

 

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Thanks folks for your insights, your sharing of your knowledge, and your support in my time of need!

I have to rush off and so had to submit the turn. The die is cast...or, more precisely, I'll soon learn if a pseudo-random number with an given seed has my name on it when Q-Ball runs the turn.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 144
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/21/2014 2:16:57 AM   
Panjack

 

Posts: 380
Joined: 7/12/2009
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December 29, 1941
-----------------

A bunch of ships are now at Melbourne, safely I hope. One CA got hit by a torpedo near Melbourne and will be out of action for quite a while. No sign of the Japanese CV TF. These ships will likely move elsewhere very soon. I can't assume Melbourne is safe. Lesson learned.

In other news: Manila fell, the first subs have been serviced at the Dutch Harbor sub base, and the Yorktown arrived in San Diego. I won't be sending the Yorktown out on any bold missions.

(in reply to Panjack)
Post #: 145
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/21/2014 5:04:07 AM   
Panjack

 

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Here’s the main action in China now. Numbers refer to the map below.

1: 30,000 Japanese troops, 200 guns, 13 AFV and at least two other units are moving towards this hex, one of which I suspect is a tank unit. In this hex a weak Chinese unit, with only 2000 men, boldly attacked last turn and will bombard this turn, hoping to slow down the advancing Japanese units.

2: If everyone can get there, this hex behind the river will have 30,000 Chinese troops (40k permitted in that hex) with a total of 800 AV (but of course weak Chinese AV). A moderate reserve will be immediately behind it. I’ll be moving more units behind for a still larger reserve but it will take a LONG time for units to arrive. I’ll even be sending units from the area around 4 (below) because the battle at 2 seems the crucial one and not many units are around 2. I just hope the units behind the river can hold out until more reserves come up behind it.

3: 16,000 Japanese troops, 120 guns, 149 AFV.

4: 40,000 Chinese troops (the max permitted) with 1000 AV. This hex is where the battle will occur. Substantial reserves should be able to get behind this hex over time.

5: I guess this is perhaps the most important non-base hex in China for the Chinese. The loss of this road junction means the Chinese army is split in half, with the Eastern half having far too little supply to permit it to do anything. I’ll be moving units to this junction, planning for the worse.

Additionally, near Paotow Q-Ball has moved from bombardment to deliberate attacks. The unit he was previously bombarding folded the first time its soldiers saw Japanese soldiers carrying rifles moving toward them. The Japanese units are now moving into the last mountain hex before the start of the long desert road to Lanchow. A Chinese unit sits defending the hex but I can assume the same thing will happen: a period of bombardment followed by a ground attack that causes the Chinese unit to collapse. The road to Lanchow will then be open.

Although some Japanese units have made contact with Chinese units elsewhere, no evidence exists of any other major offense in China.





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(in reply to Panjack)
Post #: 146
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/21/2014 3:10:45 PM   
Cribtop


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Did he hit Sydney port again? I wonder if Q-Ball knows how close he came to hitting the jackpot. Sometimes as Japan you have to gamble on all out port attack instead of Nav/Port.

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Post #: 147
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/21/2014 5:05:41 PM   
Panjack

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
Did he hit Sydney port again? I wonder if Q-Ball knows how close he came to hitting the jackpot. Sometimes as Japan you have to gamble on all out port attack instead of Nav/Port.

Luckily, he didn't attack in the two days following his Nav/Port attack. I guess Sydney is in the clear for now.

(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 148
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/21/2014 5:29:43 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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Sounds like he took pity on you and didn't strat bomb industry either.

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Post #: 149
RE: Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (... - 9/21/2014 6:15:01 PM   
Panjack

 

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Joined: 7/12/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Sounds like he took pity on you and didn't strat bomb industry either.

Q-Ball CLAIMS he didn't want to lose any more bombers to AA. But given that he's bent over backwards in our communications to be helpful, I think your interpretation is likely very plausible.

Among the helpful things he said about this sad situation at Sydney was that he guessed I had carriers at Sydney because of all the DDs I had performing ASW around the port, information he obviously gleaned from his subs around the port. I don't know if he intended to give anything away, but that information is very helpful and indicates how Japan can get useful information from unthoughtful Allied activities.

I now know I need to be careful, when I have carriers in port, about my "activity signature." Lots of DD around, carrier AC doing search/ASW, or anything else associated with carriers or big ships (say, a huge order of gray paint from Home Depot) a skilled player like Q-Ball will note and draw a conclusion about what ships are where. But knowing how the Japanese player reads these particular tea leaves, the Allied player can consider generating "false tea leaves" when it suits the Allied player. Boy, this game is deep.

I know the skilled players here already know this about tea leaves and false tea leaves, but incidents like the sad situation at Sydney provides the best teaching moment for beginners like me.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 150
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