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RE: 2 – 8 October 1941: First Autumn Mourns (turn 16)

 
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RE: 2 – 8 October 1941: First Autumn Mourns (turn 16) - 1/23/2014 9:15:20 PM   
loki100


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From: Utlima Thule
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Stuyvesant

I'm still reading, but there's a limit to the number of ways I can essentially repeat "Yikes! Those Germans are really close to Moscow" and not start sounding like a broken record...

If I follow your reasoning, then you withdrew armies from the north (to beef up the defenses of Moscow) because you reasonably expect your opponent to commit to Moscow, as opposed to striking for the strategic timber resources of sub-Arctic Russia? I can't fault your reasoning, but I do notice that you appear to be plugging existing holes by creating new ones.

Really rather disturbing how the Germans appear to have freedom to operate anywhere between north of Moscow down south to the Black Sea. I realize they can't simply walk into Moscow, your defenses are too formidable for that, but still: the Germans seem to have the initiative, while you mostly have to hunker down to fend off the (inevitable) blow aimed at Moscow.

Let's see if you can make it into 1942 with Moscow in your hands...


yeah I know what you mean, at the moment the entire thing has come to a tussle for Moscow.

I realise that by concentrating I'm also allowing SigUp to concentrate as well but for the moment I don't feel I have much choice. The only real risk to Moscow now is an encirclement (hence the reinforcing of my lines at Tula) but so close to bad weather (by design T18-19 are mud) that would be incredibly risky but I fear he is going to do as much damage to my rail lines as he can.

For 1942 I need two things. A rock solid defense immediately at Moscow (so he places his emphasis somewhere else), the means to impose pressure on a sector he has treated as secondary and to challenge his main offensive ... aye right.

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Post #: 61
9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 1/31/2014 10:23:48 AM   
loki100


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From: Utlima Thule
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This period saw a continuation of the recent German operations. Across the entire front, the weather remained clear. In the Moscow sector, the Germans concentrated heavily on the northern flank of the Kaluga-Istra bulge with particularly heavy fighting in 21 and 30 Army sectors north of the Moskva. In an attempt to breach the defense lines protecting Moscow, German infantry divisions were operating with attack frontages of 3-5 miles each.

Casualties reflected the nature of the combat. 34,500 German and 55,000 Soviet soldiers were killed or badly wounded (another 40,000 Soviet prisoners were taken in the Orel pocket). German tank losses slowly escalated, with them losing 182 AFVs and the Red Army only 87. In the air, the VVS again gave effective support to ground operations and 111 Axis and 264 Soviet planes were lost.


(shows the heaviest battles in the previous week)


(German armour at Gorbachevo)

Away from the battlefields, slowly Soviet manpower reserves were recovering (up to 275,000) and truck numbers remained static (240,000). Equally, Soviet tank production was recovering, assisted by a slow trickle of lend-lease armour


(Valentine III tanks on the way to the USSR)


(I really need some more armaments)


(OOB and showing main changes since the previous week).

Operationally, both the offensive by West Front to the south of Moscow and 55 Army on the Moskva-Volga canal were suspended. The fall of Rostov underlined the need to reinforce the Ukrainian Fronts and the need to find some means to shift from defense mixed with localised attacks. With the Germans entrenched in an arc around Moscow and pushing up to the long line of the Don, there was a desperate need to find the means for a major counterattack.

To this end, not only were reinforcements finally being allocated to the formations south of Moscow but slowly mobile formations were being pulled to the rear to rest and re-equip.




On the Tula-Voronezh sector, Leningrad Front (24 and 32 Armies) took on the sector south of the Western Front allowing the Bryansk Front to shorten its line and release 43 Army to reserve. SW Front saw a siginificant influx of fresh formations as it slowly filled out the line from Yelets to Voronezh. The intention here was to release 6 Army to reserve.



South of Voronezh, South Front remained exceptionally weak and could only hold its sector using isolated strong points. However, 51 Army had been released by the loss of Rostov and formed a useful reserve, especially on the northern flank where it could operate with SW Front's 6 Army.

54 Army, attached to the Volga MD held Voroshilovgrad and N Cauc MD held the line of the lower Don. 49 Army had just been activated and filled out with reserve formations drawn from the Stalingrad area. Too late to hold Rostov, it was hoped that a fresh infantry army would be enough to stall the Germans on the Don. To the south, 44 Army held the Kerch crossings and Coastal Army was well entrenched at Sevastopol.

In effect, Stavka had 5 armies (34, 43 south of Moscow, 6 and 51 at Voronezh and 50 still in the line on the Don) with the bulk of the available mobile formations (mostly cavalry and tank brigades). Given the available resources, any counterattack would rely on the relative mobility of these key formations.

< Message edited by loki100 -- 1/31/2014 11:26:06 AM >


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Post #: 62
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 1/31/2014 1:58:30 PM   
jwolf

 

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Yikes!!  That's an impressive advance by SigUp.  Depending on the weather during the mostly mud turns, he could still have 4-5 turns of good attack conditions to go after Moscow.  November will be interesting, and probably very frightening!

Question:  SigUp's forces in the south are threatening, sure, but isn't everything from Voronezh to Rostov on a very long, thin supply line now?  I would wonder how much more progress he could make there under any conditions.  Maybe he could just barely get the cities needed for the split of AGS?

(in reply to loki100)
Post #: 63
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 1/31/2014 4:14:21 PM   
loki100


Posts: 6517
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From: Utlima Thule
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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Yikes!!  That's an impressive advance by SigUp.  Depending on the weather during the mostly mud turns, he could still have 4-5 turns of good attack conditions to go after Moscow.  November will be interesting, and probably very frightening!

Question:  SigUp's forces in the south are threatening, sure, but isn't everything from Voronezh to Rostov on a very long, thin supply line now?  I would wonder how much more progress he could make there under any conditions.  Maybe he could just barely get the cities needed for the split of AGS?



Second go at an answer (so shorter this time).

In truth I think I have lost. I've tried a contested retreat and ended up with around 1.7-1.8m POWs (thats a guess as I can't open the game at the moment). He's been very methodical at taking his time and not routing stuff out (unlike the AI) and I can't cope with the hit on armaments.

No-one forced me to that option, its just I couldn't face the tedium of a run away defence (& hoped our small logistic nerf would give the space to get away with it). I have no interest in recreating either of the two fantasy 1941s that keep on popping up - Pzrs in Stalingrad on T14 or the Soviet 'wall of steel'.

I also feel that the mild blizzard will mean any recovery, esp at Moscow is going to be minimal.

Still a lot to play for, not least his supply lines, esp in the southern Ukraine must be dire and I have been feeding the partisans lots of bombs to go and play with his rail-lines

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Post #: 64
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 1/31/2014 8:02:10 PM   
GamesaurusRex


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Applause for great presentation and pics... +10 (Your descriptive style flows like a historic novel.) (Really great AAR loki !)

However, having played the GC twice now as the Russian through turn 77 and beyond (once pre- .11 patch and once with .11 patch) I could have told you that playing with reduced Russian morale settings would reduce the Soviet Defence to nothing more than a "Cleanup on Aisle 9 !"

I would be interested to know where all those "1:1 - 94% winning attacks" were that are supposed to be so easy for the Russian to perform ? (I didn't notice any... Maybe one or two that looked like they resulted in just more Russian POWs than German casualties...) I thought those "10-20 such easy attacks per turn" were supposed to halt the German onslaught ? No ?

I'm on turn 77 in the second GC game with Wheat, it is November 42 and I have only just stopped the German Juggernaut... and only by reason of reforming much of the front Inf Divs into Corps level. He has taken Leningrad, Moskow, and Stalingrad... and as far as Grozny in the south (I stopped him just east of Grozny because I had begun building Corps down there early) He just realized in the last turn or two that Germany could not make any further progress due to Corps level resistance and has begun to fall back slightly to more defensible lines along the river from Rostov to Stalingrad (which he still holds fortified) and then a line that runs north to just east of Moscow (which he still holds) and thence north west to just west of Kalinin and north to Lake Onega.

His morale levels, according to him, are in the range of 80. My Russian troops are in the range of 45 to 50. So, although I have effectively halted the German advance in November 42 (with 7.87 million men, 103000 guns, 5800 Afvs, 8980 ac) I am still unable to effectively counter-attack and force a retreat of anything in the German line. This is despite having about 8 to 14 SUs each of heavy artillery and sappers attached to every HQ involved and commanders with ratings in excess of 5. His troops are entrenched in fortifications rated at 2-3 across the entire front where we are in contact (which is pretty much everywhere except south of Stalingrad).

What I have concluded is that I have to build more Corps in 43, stuff their HQs with 30+ sappers and heavy artillery each, attach them to shock armies with my best commanders pulled from front duty and beat him over the head with them repeatedly at vulnerable places where I may (note "may") outnumber the German thoughout 43, 44, and 45... hoping to get to Berlin before the time runs out. (BUT.. with Morvael having advised us now that the NM schedule that is supposed to reduce the German NM by 5 points each year commencing in 43, is not working, I have my doubts.)

Yep... what this game needs is definitely more advantages for the Germans so they can just instantly win all games on turn two and put this simulation out of it's misery.

< Message edited by GamesaurusRex -- 2/2/2014 6:06:48 PM >

(in reply to loki100)
Post #: 65
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 2/1/2014 1:20:19 AM   
hfarrish

 

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Winter 42 into mid-43 are miserable against a good German defender, but things WILL turn. Trust me...I've been there.

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RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 2/1/2014 6:10:08 AM   
schascha


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Yes, you have to be patient.

You can check the AAR of my game against Stef 78

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3366529

(in reply to hfarrish)
Post #: 67
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 2/1/2014 8:12:17 AM   
Aurelian

 

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Grex, 2 sapper regiments in each corps. Massed artillery divisions. That should crack any defense

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Post #: 68
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 2/2/2014 7:17:27 AM   
loki100


Posts: 6517
Joined: 10/20/2012
From: Utlima Thule
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: GamesaurusRex

Applause for great presentation and pics... +10 (Your descriptive style flows like a historic novel.) (Really great AAR loki !)

However, having played the GC twice now as the Russian through turn 77 and beyond (once pre- .11 patch and once with .11 patch) I could have told you that playing with reduced Russian morale settings would reduce the Soviet Defence to nothing more than a "Cleanup on Aisle 9 !"

I would be interested to know where all those "1:1 - 94% winning attacks" were that are supposed to be so easy for the Russian to perform ? (I didn't notice any... Maybe one or two that looked like they resulted in just more Russian POWs than German casualties...) I thought those "10-20 such easy attacks per turn" were supposed to halt the German onslaught ? No ?

I'm on turn 77 in the second GC game with Wheat, it is November 42 and I have only just stopped the German Juggernaut... and only by reason of reforming much of the front into Corps level Inf Divs. He has taken Leningrad, Moskow, and Stalingrad... and as far as Grozny in the south (I stopped him just east of Grozny because I had begun building Corps down there early) He just realized in the last turn or two that Germany could not make any further progress due to Corps level resistance and has begun to fall back slightly to more defensible lines along the river from Rostov to Stalingrad (which he still holds fortified) and then a line that runs north to just east of Moscow (which he still holds) and thence north west to just west of Kalinin and north to Lake Onega.

His morale levels, according to him, are in the range of 80. My Russian troops are in the range of 45 to 50. So, although I have effectively halted the German advance in November 42 (with 7.87 million men, 103000 guns, 5800 Afvs, 8980 ac) I am still unable to effectively counter-attack and force a retreat of anything in the German line. This is despite having about 8 to 14 SUs each of heavy artillery and sappers attached to every HQ involved and commanders with ratings in excess of 5. His troops are entrenched in fortifications rated at 2-3 across the entire front where we are in contact (which is pretty much everywhere except south of Stalingrad).

What I have concluded is that I have to build more Corps in 43, stuff their HQs with 30+ sappers and heavy artillery each, attach them to shock armies with my best commanders pulled from front duty and beat him over the head with them repeatedly at vulnerable places where I may (note "may") outnumber the German thoughout 43, 44, and 45... hoping to get to Berlin before the time runs out. (BUT.. with Morvael having advised us now that the NM schedule that is supposed to reduce the German NM by 5 points each year commencing in 43, is not working, I have my doubts.)

Yep... what this game needs is definitely more advantages for the Germans so they can just instantly win all games on turn two and put this simulation out of it's misery.


Glad you like it.

I’ve never claimed to be delivering 8-10 counterattacks per turn, on a good turn I do 4-5, that last turn 0. To me, it’s a tactical choice. I think on balance you have to strike back (if you can) but the gains are indirect.

SigUp has adjusted his tactics, where I am strong his infantry are now stacked 3 high. Now some of this, I suspect, is as sectors like the north weaken, he too can concentrate on Moscow. But I think its also a response to my counterattacks. That concentration means the pressure is not across the front and his gains are limited, 3-4 hexes wide into sectors where I have 4/5 rows of forts. Its painful, but I can absorb that.

In the main, you need to adopt indirect tactics. When the Germans are on the offensive, the thing that matters most for them is MPs. So cost them that, I think the AARs by topeverest and STEF78 showcase this pretty well.

The axis are badly hurt by the flaws in the production routines post-42. Look at rmonical’s AAR, without any peltonic hysterics he is simply documenting the various ways he is being hindered. The morale bug for the Germans mid-late game has probably been doing little but to mask the impact of those other problems. Hopefully both the production and morale bugs are going to be removed soon.

quote:

ORIGINAL: hfarrish
Winter 42 into mid-43 are miserable against a good German defender, but things WILL turn. Trust me...I've been there.


Aye, I know. Though in truth I’ll worry about my problems in late 42-3 when I get there … . The only pocket that I really regret was at Rzhev. I had a damn good idea what was going to happen, I even put up a little map in advance showing it. If I’d pulled back, I wouldn’t have that large lodgement N of Moscow and I may even have saved my Valdai positions.

I think I am too attached to places where I have level 2/3 fortifications.

quote:

ORIGINAL: schascha

Yes, you have to be patient.

You can check the AAR of my game against Stef 78

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3366529


Again, you are right. Just a grim place at the moment, esp with a strong suspicion that the blizzard is no longer ridiculously one sided. Given our respective numbers, I am going to have to pick a sector and get it right, or end up with very little to show for my efforts.

I really need mud, and the chance to rotate units out the line so they can take on fresh manpower (even if I lack armaments).


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Post #: 69
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 2/2/2014 5:20:41 PM   
GamesaurusRex


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Aurelian

Grex, 2 sapper regiments in each corps. Massed artillery divisions. That should crack any defense


Can't crack an egg with that combo... entirely insufficient. I'm using 8 sappers plus 8 hvy arty now with NO results. Problem seems to be that 2 Corps and 4 Divs is insufficient mass to harm a fly, so I'm going to amass a 6 Corps strike group for the next attack.

If that doesn't work, I'm going to only play the German side from then on and lobby for more German advantages, while winning by turn 14, like everyone else on the forum.

(in reply to Aurelian)
Post #: 70
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 2/2/2014 5:59:57 PM   
GamesaurusRex


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quote:

ORIGINAL: hfarrish


Winter 42 into mid-43 are miserable against a good German defender, but things WILL turn. Trust me...I've been there.


Why ? What will do that ? Combat outcomes are dictated in this game by morale differentials in battle. If the German morale advantage never comes down, please tell me what mysterious force is going to suddenly change the combat results ?

Completely ignoring the combat problem... what about the movement penalties ? I have fully supplied (100%), maxxed leadership (6 or 7), maxxed morale (45-50 level) Russian CORPS with full SU that can't even move next to some German units because of the ridiculous morale movement penalties that inhibit Russian movement toward the enemy. I can only advance toward them one hex per turn in some places for reasons I can't fathom. If that doesn't change because the German levels are bugged and will never decline... it's pretty much game over.

Wheat has suggested that all I have to do is attack German positions and defeat them (thus reducing their morale) and continue to repeatedly attack the same units (thus reducing them further)... BUT... This is a "Which came first ? The chicken or the egg ?" moment. If the Russians can't successfully attack with massed everything and get a retreat result the FIRST time (when the Germans are at morale 80) and if the morale system is broken and the German morale advantage never declines, when will the Russian ever get to make those subsequent successful attacks ? The answer is never (unless something changes in the game in 43-44-45 that I freely admit I am not yet aware of, which is entirely possible). The German NM remains at 70 or 75 throughout the game and that combat advantage never degrades (as it is supposed to according to the rules and intended game design). Totally broken.

As I said elsewhere, I don't really believe many of those posting in the forum claiming "Russian advantage imbalance" have ever played this game past 1942. I believe the German Fanbois all quit, if the Russian hasn't surrendered by 1942, and most of those posting have no idea at all how the game plays out past 42.

< Message edited by GamesaurusRex -- 2/2/2014 11:07:01 PM >

(in reply to hfarrish)
Post #: 71
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 2/2/2014 7:18:12 PM   
Disgruntled Veteran


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Lol..you sure do whine a lot.

If you exclude Sapper and Pelton (actually go ahead and include them). Most of the AAR's I've watched for the last year show the Germans losing. Losing meaning getting beaten to a pulp by late 44 with nothing but ant divisions and a handful of well performing SS units. My only game in 44 went from me being on top in Summer 43..to a smouldering wreck with barely a hope to see 45 a year later. Most of the AAR's show this. The German NM isn't broken...its just you have to start the downward trend. As the year goes by you will get more and more Corps with Arty divisions. Eventually you will punch a hole in the line somewhere and the road to Berlin opens up.

(in reply to GamesaurusRex)
Post #: 72
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 2/2/2014 9:53:42 PM   
loki100


Posts: 6517
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From: Utlima Thule
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Disgruntled Veteran

...

If you exclude Sapper and Pelton (actually go ahead and include them). Most of the AAR's I've watched for the last year show the Germans losing. Losing meaning getting beaten to a pulp by late 44 with nothing but ant divisions and a handful of well performing SS units. My only game in 44 went from me being on top in Summer 43..to a smouldering wreck with barely a hope to see 45 a year later. Most of the AAR's show this. The German NM isn't broken...its just you have to start the downward trend. As the year goes by you will get more and more Corps with Arty divisions. Eventually you will punch a hole in the line somewhere and the road to Berlin opens up.


I do so agree with you. There are too many late war AARs just collapsing into frustration due to these problems (hopefully soon to be solved). And yes, the Germans need help to encourage a collapse. One important part is it is much harder for them to pull units off the line to refit (esp their infantry) so as morale starts to slip, its hard to recover the situation (unlike with the Soviets where you can, and should, be rotating on a regular basis. Even one turn out the line on refit and on a rail can really boost manpower.

but ... can we leave this debate now? its spread over a number of threads on the main forum, we're all aware of G's opinions and the various arguments advanced to the contrary ... ta

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Post #: 73
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 2/2/2014 10:00:36 PM   
GamesaurusRex


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Disgruntled Veteran

Lol..you sure do whine a lot.

If you exclude Sapper and Pelton (actually go ahead and include them). Most of the AAR's I've watched for the last year show the Germans losing. Losing meaning getting beaten to a pulp by late 44 with nothing but ant divisions and a handful of well performing SS units. My only game in 44 went from me being on top in Summer 43..to a smouldering wreck with barely a hope to see 45 a year later. Most of the AAR's show this. The German NM isn't broken...its just you have to start the downward trend. As the year goes by you will get more and more Corps with Arty divisions. Eventually you will punch a hole in the line somewhere and the road to Berlin opens up.


In all fairness, I may agree with you after I have played through 45. I won't know until then because I have not played the game through til then yet. I am playing against Wheat, who is far beyond competent as a German player (I'd go so far as to suggest he is expert) and he doesn't miss much. We will see if you are correct that things change as radically as I keep reading about on the forum. If so, I will gladly report the same. As for my whines, I only report what I see. I don't want either side so structured that victory is a forgone conclusion. I think the East Front is interesting for the very reason that it's outcome was in doubt from the beginning. A good game structure should reflect that and come to some nadir in 43 that determines which side will likely win (with at least, the possibility that the Germans might stalemate the front before Berlin is destroyed by the historical date). Then the VP system should measure the game results compared to the historical outcome.

Hey, you may be entirely correct, because at this point at the end of 42, in this game, Wheat has just about reached the German limit of advance (stopped only by reforming divisions to Corps), having gone beyond the German historical positions and captured Leningrad, Moskow, Stalingrad, and Grozny in the south... and he has just now begun to fall back onto more defensible fortified positions in anticipation of a more offensively capable Russian Army.

Whether the Russian forces can push back to Berlin is still in doubt, until something changes. So you might be right , if it does too radically.

< Message edited by GamesaurusRex -- 2/2/2014 11:27:29 PM >

(in reply to Disgruntled Veteran)
Post #: 74
RE: 2 – 8 October 1941: First Autumn Mourns (turn 16) - 2/3/2014 2:44:47 PM   
Gabriel B.

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100


quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Yikes!!  That's an impressive advance by SigUp.  Depending on the weather during the mostly mud turns, he could still have 4-5 turns of good attack conditions to go after Moscow.  November will be interesting, and probably very frightening!

Question:  SigUp's forces in the south are threatening, sure, but isn't everything from Voronezh to Rostov on a very long, thin supply line now?  I would wonder how much more progress he could make there under any conditions.  Maybe he could just barely get the cities needed for the split of AGS?



Second go at an answer (so shorter this time).

In truth I think I have lost. I've tried a contested retreat and ended up with around 1.7-1.8m POWs (thats a guess as I can't open the game at the moment). He's been very methodical at taking his time and not routing stuff out (unlike the AI) and I can't cope with the hit on armaments.

No-one forced me to that option, its just I couldn't face the tedium of a run away defence (& hoped our small logistic nerf would give the space to get away with it). I have no interest in recreating either of the two fantasy 1941s that keep on popping up - Pzrs in Stalingrad on T14 or the Soviet 'wall of steel'.

I also feel that the mild blizzard will mean any recovery, esp at Moscow is going to be minimal.

Still a lot to play for, not least his supply lines, esp in the southern Ukraine must be dire and I have been feeding the partisans lots of bombs to go and play with his rail-lines


Things should look bleek in octomber, to produce a adequate simulation imv.
generaly as axis, I am prepared to lose any ground won after 1 september.
Do you think you can push sig up back to that line ? That means taking back Harkov as well .


(in reply to Stuyvesant)
Post #: 75
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 2/3/2014 4:52:04 PM   
Aurelian

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: GamesaurusRex


quote:

ORIGINAL: Aurelian

Grex, 2 sapper regiments in each corps. Massed artillery divisions. That should crack any defense


Can't crack an egg with that combo... entirely insufficient. I'm using 8 sappers plus 8 hvy arty now with NO results. Problem seems to be that 2 Corps and 4 Divs is insufficient mass to harm a fly, so I'm going to amass a 6 Corps strike group for the next attack.

If that doesn't work, I'm going to only play the German side from then on and lobby for more German advantages, while winning by turn 14, like everyone else on the forum.


Well, in my last PBEM, that is just what I did in 43. It wasn't spectacular, but massed Rifle Corps with sapper regiments backed by Breakthrough Artillery ground their way forward. Where a hole opened, the Tank Armies ran through.

That was a few patches ago, but I don't think the basic formula has changed any.

_____________________________


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Post #: 76
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 2/3/2014 7:46:48 PM   
gingerbread


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With the mild winter, it's falls more on the Soviets to cause casualties and it should.

I noticed in you latest production screen shot that you have not yet built any more RR Brigades. It is somewhat a matter of taste, but I like to have them earlier for digging tasks.

Also pleased to see that the fixes morvael made to partisan supply are working.

(in reply to Aurelian)
Post #: 77
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 2/4/2014 2:24:37 AM   
GamesaurusRex


Posts: 505
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Aurelian


quote:

ORIGINAL: GamesaurusRex


quote:

ORIGINAL: Aurelian

Grex, 2 sapper regiments in each corps. Massed artillery divisions. That should crack any defense


Can't crack an egg with that combo... entirely insufficient. I'm using 8 sappers plus 8 hvy arty now with NO results. Problem seems to be that 2 Corps and 4 Divs is insufficient mass to harm a fly, so I'm going to amass a 6 Corps strike group for the next attack.

If that doesn't work, I'm going to only play the German side from then on and lobby for more German advantages, while winning by turn 14, like everyone else on the forum.


Well, in my last PBEM, that is just what I did in 43. It wasn't spectacular, but massed Rifle Corps with sapper regiments backed by Breakthrough Artillery ground their way forward. Where a hole opened, the Tank Armies ran through.

That was a few patches ago, but I don't think the basic formula has changed any.


Well Aurelian, I have discovered something that may change the outcomes significantly and you may be right. Up until the present turn in my game with Wheat, all of the SUs have been attached to the HQs and not directly to the Corps. I did it this way because the Corps did not have "Assign" buttons on them until this last turn or two (about half of them still have no "assign" button and I'm not sure why... does their TOE structure control this ?).

Anyway, I'm changing this on any Corps I can and assume this will improve outcomes if it avoids rolls for commitment of SUs. Maybe this is what changes things in 43 ? I'm going to find out.

(in reply to Aurelian)
Post #: 78
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 2/4/2014 7:01:09 AM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.

Things should look bleek in octomber, to produce a adequate simulation imv.
generaly as axis, I am prepared to lose any ground won after 1 september.
Do you think you can push sig up back to that line ? That means taking back Harkov as well .



One thing that I am pleased about with this game is we have got to a broadly correct relative OOB, I guess I am going to go into the winter offensive with no overall numerical advantage.

I think, and this fits with gingerbread’s comments below that my main goal in the winter is to do damage to the Germans – territory is secondary. What I need to do is to force SigUp to a single sector for his 1942 offensive or I feel I will be overwhelmed.

As an absolute minimum, I have to eliminate that salient north of Moscow, if I can get him back towards Rzhev, I’ll take that. At the moment, not only do I fear a 1942 hook in behind Moscow but I’ve also lost my ‘safe’ area for re-organising as I need to go quite a long way back to get more than 10 hexes clear of the Axis lines.

In the Ukraine, if I can restore Kursk-Kharkov-Mius, I’ll be happy enough. Really there I just want some depth and I suspect SigUp will fall back (at least at start).

But yes, its realistically a depressing phase of the war.


quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

With the mild winter, it's falls more on the Soviets to cause casualties and it should.

I noticed in you latest production screen shot that you have not yet built any more RR Brigades. It is somewhat a matter of taste, but I like to have them earlier for digging tasks.

Also pleased to see that the fixes morvael made to partisan supply are working.


I’ve been saving APs and manpower by building almost no new SUs. I’ve just ordered 3 new rail repair brigades and am going to try to get them up to about 50 by December. Not least I suspect SigUp is going to go on a rail wrecking campaign in November (he did this very successfully when we played the Moscow Campaign scenario), as that, plus the logistics nerf, will limit my scope for serious gains.

I also suspect he is going to try to take Kaluga as that will give him a strong point to anchor his positions SW of Moscow.

Morvael has done a fantastic job making all sorts of sub-systems work. I’ve put a lot of effort into the partisan war (I have supply to spare and it’s a good use of the VVS at this stage) but have been really surprised at some of the damage I’ve inflicted.

It must be adding a small bit of uncertainty and nasty surprises for SigUp, if I get a good hit in during mud that may cause him to weaken a bit and thus limit any November operations.

But

Hi GamesaurusRex, its great to get comments and usually more than happy to respond, but I’d prefer it if they were about this particular game. Always interesting to read about how others are approaching the game but there are plenty of other threads around for that.

Ta ….


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Post #: 79
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 2/4/2014 11:39:57 AM   
juret

 

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Good aar. Will be more fun following the maps when u go on the offensive in the winter.

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Post #: 80
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 2/6/2014 10:45:16 AM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: juret

Good aar. Will be more fun following the maps when u go on the offensive in the winter.


yeah, I agree. It'll be nice to reach a phase in the game where I am the one setting out where the action is, as opposed to reacting.

I've just got turn 18 back and its mud .......... wonderful lots of mud

So since that means I plan to use the next turn as well for a major juggle to hold key things (Tula, Kaluga) in the snow turns and prepare for the winter offensive, I won't bore everyone with an interim update that says very little. I'll conflate the rest of October into a single end of month turn to set things up for the winter turns.

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Post #: 81
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 2/6/2014 11:43:40 AM   
jwolf

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

I'll conflate the rest of October into a single end of month turn to set things up for the winter turns.


That will be fine with your readers, I am sure. The mud turns will give you some much needed rest on the front, but the Germans do get a chance to relieve some exhausted units as well. They can hit pretty hard in November. I was surprised in my Soviet game against the AI when in November the Germans cracked some of my positions that I thought I could hold. But the tide quickly turned in December.

Of course (with random weather) there is the possibility of a snow turn amidst the mud. Fun times. ;)

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Post #: 82
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 2/6/2014 1:58:16 PM   
gingerbread


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The weather diece has no memory, you can get not-mud in turn 19...

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Post #: 83
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 2/6/2014 4:50:30 PM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

The weather diece has no memory, you can get not-mud in turn 19...


oh damn ...

actually this has inspired me to go and read the manual .. (as ever read the instructions only as a last resort) and its clear I'd completely inverted the rules. There is no guarantee of bad weather (at least in the west) just a limit to it.

on the other hand in my AI game, I've just seen solid mud in the Moscow sector from April to mid-June (maybe 1 turn of clear), so it seems you can get some pretty extreme outcomes - which makes sense in sampling with replication routines.

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Post #: 84
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 2/6/2014 6:04:04 PM   
Stuyvesant

 

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Things still look scary to me. Expect me to resurface from my security blanket once the tide turns (or once the Germans march the last Soviet POWs into captivity). ;)

Seriously, you seem to have a daunting task. Reading the comments from others, there seems to be a natural rhythm to the game, where the Soviets gain (at least a temporary) advantage during the winter of 41-42, after which the Germans take it back, after which things continue to ebb and flow (and eventually the Russians gain the upper hand and march on Berlin). They clearly know what they are talking about, so I trust their judgment, but not having seen these rhythms in action myself, it's hard to emotionally believe that you can dislodge the Germans and eventually recover.

Should be fun to watch either way.

(in reply to loki100)
Post #: 85
RE: 9 – 15 October: 'Impregnable, my Fortresss?' (turn 17) - 2/9/2014 7:38:52 PM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Stuyvesant

Things still look scary to me. Expect me to resurface from my security blanket once the tide turns (or once the Germans march the last Soviet POWs into captivity). ;)

Seriously, you seem to have a daunting task. Reading the comments from others, there seems to be a natural rhythm to the game, where the Soviets gain (at least a temporary) advantage during the winter of 41-42, after which the Germans take it back, after which things continue to ebb and flow (and eventually the Russians gain the upper hand and march on Berlin). They clearly know what they are talking about, so I trust their judgment, but not having seen these rhythms in action myself, it's hard to emotionally believe that you can dislodge the Germans and eventually recover.

Should be fun to watch either way.


scary to me too. One problem with the game design is there are a lot of 'rich get richer' mechanisms. Morale is a good eg, you win battles and your morale goes up, higher morale means you win more battles etc. Equally far too much of the loss routine in combat is triggered by retreat, so the winner (usually the attacker) takes too light losses. Both mean the friction of the real war is missing (for both sides).

The first winter rule is a bit of an artificial way to build in at least one rebound for the Soviets. It used to be grossly overstated, it now creates the platform for a short recovery and the chance to hand out some damage.

I need to get space, esp at Moscow. 1942 will be scary, but the Germans are usually at the limits of their manpower, so the art is to keep an army in the field and cost them dear. Would be more optimistic if the overall size of the 2 armies wasn't so equal at the moment.

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Post #: 86
16 – 30 October: Behind me, dips Eternity (T17-18) - 2/9/2014 7:44:09 PM   
loki100


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(For the Motherland)


The last two weeks of October saw the clear weather finally break. Both armies faced the problems brought by the sustained autumn rains and effectively all major combat operations ceased. However, the Axis armies seemed to suffer more, losing 120 AFVs, 33 aircraft and 49,000 men compared to Soviet losses of only a few tanks, 150 aircraft and 51,000 men.

The partisan war continued with a major strike against the German rail lines supply AGN



In the air, the Soviets took the opportunity to rest and refit key squadrons and to avoid attritional combat with the Luftwaffe [1].

On both land and in the air, Soviet planning was trying to balance two needs. First, it was assumed the Germans would make one last attempt to capture Moscow before winter set in. Second, there was a need to build up the capacity for a sustained Soviet offensive. At the least this had to relieve the pressure at Moscow and retake some of the major cities of the eastern Ukraine.

However, in the midst of these complex demands on the Stavka's staff, Stalin got drunk one night [2]



The challenge was not just the operational deployment of the Red Army. Behind the lines, Soviet industry was operating at reduced capacity and failing to meet the demands of rebuilding the Red Army.



In particular, armaments were in short supply. The lull in fighting had allowed a number of divisions to be pulled out the line to rest and reinforce, but the lack of artillery was a major problem. Few rifle divisions had more than 100 guns and Army level assets were equally diminished.

Despite the need to hold the current frontline, Stavka was slowly creating a reserve. The elite Siberian divisions were mostly pulled into reserve to form the core of the planned counter-offensive.



Elsewhere, the mobile formations were pulled into reserve and reallocated. Bryansk Front in particular gained 50 Army from the N Caucasus and 34 Army from Western Front. This gave it 3 armies largely consisting of cavalry and tank units (34, 43 and 50A). Around Voronezh a second mobile group was being gathered consisting of 6A (SW Front) and 51A (Southern Front). Equally, reinforcements were being allocated to SW Front in order to protect Voronezh and create the capacity for a later counteroffensive.



In part due to the rains, but also the depth of Soviet defences around Moscow, October had seen little movement in the front lines. In effect, the long front split into two sections.




In front of Moscow, Kalinin Front had yielded only 20 kms and its formations, together with the Moscow District had dug multiple defences guarding the city. To the north, NW Front had held the line of the Tveritsa and 55 Army had regained the west bank of the Moskva-Volga canal. Critically here, the bulk of the German armoured and motorised formations were locked into the front lines.

To the south of Moscow, Western Front had managed to regain some ground west of Tula and was well dug in along the Oka. To its immediate south, Leningrad and parts of Bryansk Front held the southerly approach to Tula. Here the German armour was in reserve and it was assumed they would strike at Tula-Kaluga. Here Soviet defensive tactics had shifted, the front lines were only lightly held but a strong secondary line had been set up some 15-20 kms to the rear. The primary goal was to avoid losing any more formations in encirclements.

The three Ukrainian Fronts were also organised to minimise the risk of encirclement while seeking to prevent any German attempts to cross the Don.

[1] – all the high morale, Yak 1, Pe 2, Il 2 squadron are resting. Around Moscow, there are a lot of Migs and Laggs, with the bulk of the VVS now in the south (hoping to catch the Luftwaffe off guard)
[2] Later scrutiny of the Central Committee records indicated that at much the same time as he had this cartoon drawn, him,



Voroshilov and Molotov found the key to the special Vodka stocks being kept for the triumpal entry of the Red Army into Berlin.

The text reads 'long live the gunners of the Red Army'. The myth of Stalin being at the front was a regular feature of Soviet propaganda and works on the Great Patriotic War in the period 1945-53.



Attachment (1)

< Message edited by loki100 -- 2/9/2014 8:48:18 PM >


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Post #: 87
RE: 16 – 30 October: Behind me, dips Eternity (T17-18) - 2/9/2014 7:45:27 PM   
loki100


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sorry managed a double post - can't see how to delete

< Message edited by loki100 -- 2/9/2014 8:49:15 PM >


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Post #: 88
RE: 16 – 30 October: Behind me, dips Eternity (T17-18) - 2/10/2014 10:25:31 AM   
Gabriel B.

 

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You have very good comanders at front level , but being overloaded does not defeat the pourpose ?

Gennerally I make sure armies get the best leaders, and use whatever front leader I get for free.


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Post #: 89
Turn 20 - 2/11/2014 8:33:22 PM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.

You have very good comanders at front level , but being overloaded does not defeat the pourpose ?

Gennerally I make sure armies get the best leaders, and use whatever front leader I get for free.




Its one of a number of things that I am slowly feeling my way about. My instinct is that I'm better with the better commanders at the Front level and accept a small overload. Most of the current problems will be solved when the N Cauc front is fully available and the Volkhov Front activates.

Just had the next turn back and its another mud turn. I guess that saves Moscow for 1941, since all I've done is mostly juggle formations around and commmit the VVS to dropping masses of supply to my partisans, I think I can sum up all that matters in one image:




I guess the armament position won't improve now till the bulk of my losses have returned to the map. At least I can improve the average manpower per division back up to around 10,000 so that will help. Partisans are still enthusiastically blowing up the German rail net.

I've started a secondary round of factory evacuations. Places along the Don that could be threatened in November are now mostly emptied as is the bulk of the Stalingrad factories. My suspicion is I'll have to pull them out next summer in any case, so may as well do it now.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by loki100 -- 2/11/2014 9:35:43 PM >


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