Matrix Games Forums

Forums  Register  Login  Photo Gallery  Member List  Search  Calendars  FAQ 

My Profile  Inbox  Address Book  My Subscription  My Forums  Log Out

RE: 1D10 versus 2D10

 
View related threads: (in this forum | in all forums)

Logged in as: Guest
Users viewing this topic: none
  Printable Version
All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> World in Flames >> RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 Page: <<   < prev  1 [2]
Login
Message << Older Topic   Newer Topic >>
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 10/30/2013 2:03:13 AM   
Zorachus99


Posts: 1054
Joined: 9/15/2000
From: Palo Alto, CA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian


quote:

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

I agree 2D10 has more extremes. In 1D10 there may be a 10% chance of something bad happening, but in 2D10 (at higher odds) it might only be a 1% chance. So if you roll the bad result, it seems like it was far more unlucky.


there are two kinds of "extreme luck" - rolling a 2 attacking on the 2d10, or rolling a 1 twice in a row attacking on the 1d10. Which would you rather experience?

I will probably never play 1d10 ever again, even solitaire with MWiF. 2d10 smooths the results better, and lets operational tactics (skill) into the game much more.


Exactly this. Fear of the worst results cancelled many an operation.

_____________________________

Most men can survive adversity, the true test of a man's character is power. -Abraham Lincoln

(in reply to brian brian)
Post #: 31
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 10/30/2013 3:19:19 AM   
composer99


Posts: 2923
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline
Here's some number crunching that might come in handy thinking about the combat tables.


Scenario 1
Let's take a +12 assault against 2 defenders in, say, a city, on the 2d10 table, assuming +12 is the final die roll modifier. That's a pretty good attack - in fact, it's a great attack.

With that assault, you as the attacker have:
- a 15% chance of becoming completely disorganized
- a 30% chance of becoming partially disorganized
- a 55% chance of remaining fully organized
- a 1% chance of taking 3 losses (the dreaded 14)
- an 11% chance of taking 2 losses
- a 20% chance of taking 1 loss
- a 68% chance of taking no losses
- an 85% chance of taking the hex (in a hex with 3 defenders with the same die roll modifier you get a 79% chance instead)

A +12 assault would be a 6:1 assault on the 1d10 CRT, but the odds ratios useable are 5:1 and 7:1, so let's say that we're looking at a 5:1 attack with a +2 die roll modifier.

In that case, you as the attacker have:
- a 30% chance of becoming completely disorganized
- a 70% chance of remaining organized
- a 0% chance of taking losses
- a 90% chance of taking the hex, regardless of how many defenders are present

Comparison
The 1d10 CRT in this case is more punitive with respect to becoming completely disorganized (30% vs. 15% for 2d10) but is actually more lenient with respect to remaining organized (70% vs. 55% for 2d10).

The 1d10 CRT in this case is also vastly more lenient with respect to losses (100% chance of 0 losses vs. 68% for 2d10). Both tables end up comparable in terms of actually taking the hex attacked, although the 1d10 table has the edge.


Scenario 2
Let's take a +6 assault against 2 defenders in a city on the 2d10, assuming +12 is the final die roll modifier. That's a marginal attack (unless you have hot dice).

With that assault, you as the attacker have:
- a 64% chance of becoming completely disorganized
- a 26% chance of becoming partially disorganized
- a 10% chance of remaining fully organized
- a 7% chance of taking 3 losses (the dreaded 14)
- a 28% chance of taking 2 losses
- a 34% chance of taking 1 loss
- a 31% chance of taking no losses
- a 36% chance of taking the hex (in a hex with 3 defenders and the same die roll modifier you get a 24% chance instead)

A +6 assault maps, per the 2d10 CRT, onto 3:1 odds, so on the 1d10 CRT an unmodified 3:1 assault nets you the following as the attacker:
- a 90% chance of becoming completely disorganized
- a 10% chance of remaining organized
- a 20% chance of taking 2 losses
- a 40% chance of taking 1 loss
- a 40% chance of taking no losses
- a 40% chance of taking the hex against 2 defenders (30% chance against 3 defenders)

Comparison
The 1d10 CRT is much more punitive with respect to becoming completely disorganized (90% vs. 64% on 2d10), while on both tables, the attacker has the same 10% chance of remaining organized. The big difference is the added fluidity of the partial disorganized result of the 2d10 CRT.

The 1d10 CRT is much more lenient with respect to losses:
- no losses: 1d10 40% vs. 31% 2d10
- 1 loss: 1d10 40% vs. 34% 2d10
- 2 losses: 1d10 20% vs. 28% 2d10
- 3 losses: 1d10 nil vs. 7% 2d10

The CRTs are comparable in terms of taking the hex, although the 1d10 table has a slight edge.


One could perform similar number crunching for blitzes, other odds ratios, defenders' losses, etc.

(As a matter of personal experience, I always felt that the dreaded 14 result on the assault table came up much more often than could be expected as a matter of probability. Even when granting that each die roll is an independent event and it takes hundreds, or even thousands, of die rolls for the numbers to even out.)

< Message edited by composer99 -- 10/30/2013 3:20:14 AM >


_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to Zorachus99)
Post #: 32
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 10/30/2013 3:42:40 AM   
paulderynck


Posts: 7922
Joined: 3/24/2007
From: Canada
Status: offline
1D10 with Blitz mods is not all that different than 2D10.

_____________________________

Paul

(in reply to brian brian)
Post #: 33
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 10/30/2013 3:53:54 AM   
composer99


Posts: 2923
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline
OK, I couldn't stay away. Here's more numbers.

Scenario 3
2d10, +12 blitz against 3 defenders, 1 of which is an ARM unit (this is significant for the loss profile in 2d10).

In this case, the attacker gets:
- 6% chance of becoming completely disorganized
- 22% chance of becoming partially disorganized
- 72% chance of remaining organized
- 19% chance of taking 1 loss
- 81% chance of taking no losses
- 97% chance of taking the hex
- 85% chance of getting a breakthrough

There actually is a 6-1 column on the 1d10 blitz CRT. With an unmodified 6:1 blitz, the attacker gets:
- 10% chance of becoming completely disorganized
- 90% chance of remaining organized
- 10% chance of taking 1 loss
- 90% chance of taking no losses
- 100% chance of taking the hex
- 90% chance of getting a breakthrough

(Note that the chance of getting a breakthrough is a subset of the chance of taking the hex.)

Comparison
The 1d10 CRT is better for the attacker in every respect, save for the chance to become completely disorganized; this minor flaw is outweight massively by the far superior chance to remain organized.

Scenario 4
2d10, +6 blitz against 3 defenders, 1 of which is an ARM unit

In this case, the attacker gets:
- 45% chance of becoming completely disorganized
- 34% chance of becoming partially disorganized
- 21% chance of remaining organized
- 7% chance of taking 2 losses
- 48% chance of taking 1 loss
- 45% chance of taking no losses
- 64% chance of taking the hex
- 36% chance of getting a breakthrough

This is equivalent to an unmodified 3:1 blitz on the 1d10, which gets the attacker:
- 70% chance of becoming completely disorganized
- 30% chance of remaining organized
- 50% chance of taking 1 loss
- 50% chance of taking no losses
- 60% chance of taking the hex
- 30% chance of getting a breakthrough

(Note that the chance of getting a breakthrough is a subset of the chance of taking the hex.)

Comparison
The 2d10 table appears to edge the 1d10 out for this more marginal blitz combat:
- the partial reorganization result makes up for the 2d10's lower-probability outcome to remain organized
- a slightly higher probability of taking the hex, to begin with, and getting a breakthrough when you do get the hex

Where the 1d10 table has the edge is in losses:
- you can't take 2 losses on the 1d10 at all, whereas coming up snake eyes on the 2d10 will do the trick
- the 1d10 has a non-trivial edge over the 2d10 for taking no losses

-----
pauldernyck notes the blitz mods of the 1d10 table. If you can get these than even a 3:1 1d10 blitz starts looking much better than the 2d10: each +1 to the die roll gets you a +10% chance of remaining organized, a +10% chance of taking no losses, and a +10% chance of taking the hex and getting a breakthrough - up to a maximum +30% to all of these.

_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to paulderynck)
Post #: 34
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 10/30/2013 3:56:54 AM   
paulderynck


Posts: 7922
Joined: 3/24/2007
From: Canada
Status: offline
But a 3:1 1D10 with mods is not a +6 at 2D10, it's more like a +11.

_____________________________

Paul

(in reply to composer99)
Post #: 35
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 10/30/2013 4:18:58 AM   
Klydon


Posts: 2251
Joined: 11/28/2010
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: gridley

quote:

ORIGINAL: Snydly

Where is the option for 1D6 ... like the good ole days in Version 4 of WiF .

Now that lead to some very ... my 'offensive is over type of results' when you rolled two or three 1's invading Russia.


My wall still has dents from the 6 sided die...that truly was an unforgiving table.

Even the Naval table back then was brutal...I remember once the Japanese player rolled like, 4 six's and 2 fives...bye bye US Navy. The US player immediately started to calculate the odds for such a roll. It was funny to watch, took him a while to joke about it though...


I remember we had a big multiplayer game going and I was on the Axis side. We had a fairly brutal start and while Poland went down, the casualties were heavy due to bad dice. France wasn't a cake walk either and it quickly became apparent that attacks where Von Manstein was at were the only ones that were having any luck with dice. The Germans wound up riding Manny to victory in France and started setting up for Barbarossa. While that was going on, the Axis were rolling 1's and 2's in Africa and it was clear it just wasn't going to be our game, so the Axis made the decision to dispatch Manny to Africa to fix the situation. Sure enough, 5's and 6's followed and we wound up taking the Suez. Game more or less ended there in a moral victory for the Axis as that was about the only type of victory we were going to get out of that game. Hehe.

It got so bad, it became funny.

(in reply to gridley)
Post #: 36
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 10/30/2013 5:17:51 PM   
lomyrin


Posts: 3741
Joined: 12/21/2005
From: San Diego
Status: offline
This table shows the result percentages for the 2D10 tables with a given die roll total modifier base.

w means weather other than fine, t means terrain other than clear.

ret - retreat, brk - breakthru




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Klydon)
Post #: 37
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 10/31/2013 6:14:57 PM   
composer99


Posts: 2923
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

But a 3:1 1D10 with mods is not a +6 at 2D10, it's more like a +11.




In the probability calculations above I didn't add any die roll modifiers for the 3:1 1D10 attacks.

I did for the 5:1 1D10 assault to try to get it to come close to the 6:1 2D10 assault, because there is no 6:1 column on the 1D10 table.

_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to paulderynck)
Post #: 38
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 11/1/2013 8:37:34 AM   
chris3863

 

Posts: 3
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline
True, I got carried away, it's not quite as easy as I said but with proper planning its much easier than with 1d10. With a little luck with ground and artillery strikes and good planning I can get a +12-+14 modifier on the 2d10 table which translates to a 64-79% chance to take the hex on the 1st try versus 50-60% chance with 1d10.

(note: when I say proper planning that means planning this from the start of Barbarossa so you can get all the units in place you need for an attack in snow.)

_____________________________

l'audace, l'audace toujour l'audace

(in reply to brian brian)
Post #: 39
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 11/1/2013 3:53:41 PM   
Numdydar

 

Posts: 3050
Joined: 2/13/2004
Status: offline
Wow I had no idea of the differences and complexities involved when I started this thread

So to recap and make sure I undersatnd everyone's comments

1D10
Pros - can provide better results, simpler to figure out(?), can improve strategy used due to more likely extreme results
Con - Extreme results more likely, can be manulipited more easily

2D10
Pros - Extreme results much less likely, allows more attacks to occur
Cons - more partial results, i.e. one unit disorganized versus none under a D10, Allows more attacks to occur (yes something can be both a positive and a negaitive at the same time)

Is the above close?

Also is it also true that there is no definate consensus on which one should be used as a standard? What D system do the tournements use?

(in reply to chris3863)
Post #: 40
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 11/1/2013 4:29:23 PM   
Ur_Vile_WEdge

 

Posts: 585
Joined: 6/28/2005
Status: offline
Most tournaments these days use 2D10, as I understand it.

Also, at least to me, 2D10 has the pro that it encourages players to mass their armor. In 1d10, you'll want just enough arm/mech involved to be able to call a blitz if you want, and more are generally wasted.

2D10 rewards the historically accurate "We commit all of our tanks to where we want the breakthrough."

< Message edited by Ur_Vile_WEdge -- 11/2/2013 3:22:52 AM >

(in reply to Numdydar)
Post #: 41
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 11/2/2013 2:18:16 AM   
paulderynck


Posts: 7922
Joined: 3/24/2007
From: Canada
Status: offline
My experience has been more people use 2D10. However, the game's designer still refers to 2D10 as an optional rule that replaces the "standard" CRT.

_____________________________

Paul

(in reply to Ur_Vile_WEdge)
Post #: 42
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 11/3/2013 9:38:53 PM   
WIF_Killzone

 

Posts: 277
Joined: 4/30/2009
Status: offline
What happened to the trust 2 x 6 dice. Worked for me many moons ago, what was the logic behind the change and then the change again?

(in reply to paulderynck)
Post #: 43
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 8/5/2014 12:43:03 PM   
juntoalmar


Posts: 550
Joined: 9/29/2013
From: Valencia
Status: offline
Hi,

I have started a game with 2D10 for first time. I kind of understand it, but I haven't found in the rules or in the forum the conversion from 2:1, 3:1, 4:1 to +5, +6, +11...

This is kind of embarrassing... as it seems to me that the answer has to be very obvious, but I just don't find it!

_____________________________

(my humble blog about wargames, in spanish) http://cabezadepuente.blogspot.com.es/

(in reply to WIF_Killzone)
Post #: 44
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 8/5/2014 12:53:56 PM   
Orm


Posts: 19373
Joined: 5/3/2008
From: Sweden
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: juntoalmar

Hi,

I have started a game with 2D10 for first time. I kind of understand it, but I haven't found in the rules or in the forum the conversion from 2:1, 3:1, 4:1 to +5, +6, +11...

This is kind of embarrassing... as it seems to me that the answer has to be very obvious, but I just don't find it!

At the end of RAC you find the 2D10 table.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Have a bit more patience with newbies. Of course some of them act dumb -- they're often students, for heaven's sake. - Terry Pratchett

(in reply to juntoalmar)
Post #: 45
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 8/5/2014 12:55:35 PM   
Orm


Posts: 19373
Joined: 5/3/2008
From: Sweden
Status: offline
And here is the 2D10 odds table.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Have a bit more patience with newbies. Of course some of them act dumb -- they're often students, for heaven's sake. - Terry Pratchett

(in reply to Orm)
Post #: 46
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 8/6/2014 12:35:13 AM   
juntoalmar


Posts: 550
Joined: 9/29/2013
From: Valencia
Status: offline
Ok! Thanks a lot!

I found it in the RAC. The fact is that the table is in page 174 of RAC next to Weather Effects, and in my quick scan I thought the table was related to weather.

Thanks again!



_____________________________

(my humble blog about wargames, in spanish) http://cabezadepuente.blogspot.com.es/

(in reply to Orm)
Post #: 47
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 8/6/2014 4:19:28 AM   
paulderynck


Posts: 7922
Joined: 3/24/2007
From: Canada
Status: offline
Figure out the odds. Double them. Are you playing fractional odds? If no, then round off and you have the number to add to the dice total. If yes, then use the remainder to determine whether you can add one more.

Simple example: 25 to 4. That's 6.25 to 1. Doubled, that's +12.5. Fractional odds? If no, then roll two dice and add 12 and look at the table to see the result. If yes, then roll one more die. The fraction is point 5, so if your roll 1 to 5, add one more to make it +13, but if you roll 6 to 10, then it remains a +12.

On top of the odds are all the modifiers for armor, engineers, cities, HQ support etc. Those are added/subtracted to the base die roll modifier (+12 in the example above) before the fractional +1 (or not) is determined.

_____________________________

Paul

(in reply to juntoalmar)
Post #: 48
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 2/13/2020 4:53:16 AM   
warspite1


Posts: 41941
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline
Wish I'd found this thread before setting up....

Early days but I think 2D10 is going to take a lot of getting used to....

It may just be a case of unfamiliarity with something new but equally, at present I just don't like the 'feel' of 2D10.

_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to paulderynck)
Post #: 49
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 2/13/2020 11:19:28 AM   
Ian R

 

Posts: 2351
Joined: 8/1/2000
From: Sydney
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Wish I'd found this thread before setting up....

Early days but I think 2D10 is going to take a lot of getting used to....

It may just be a case of unfamiliarity with something new but equally, at present I just don't like the 'feel' of 2D10.


It's easy. organize 7-1 attacks, which, if everything else nets out gives you a +14DRM. And a 10% chance of a poor result, but one that still affects the defender. You can't get 7-1 everywhere, so you start adding tanks, engineers, etc to get the modifiers up high.

For what it is worth, playing solitaire I am using the 1D10. I am not using the blitz bonus rule. Also, whilst I am using divisions in a minimal fashion, I am not using artillery, engineers, or mass breakdowns optionals - in fact I do do not use breakdowns at all, the MPs get the divisions they build and that is that.

I find this bloody enough, and variable enough, for enjoyable solo play. YMMV.

_____________________________

"You may find that having is not so nearly pleasing a thing as wanting. It is not logical, but it is often true."
- Cdr Spock


Ian R

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 50
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 2/13/2020 2:00:38 PM   
Centuur


Posts: 8414
Joined: 6/3/2011
From: Hoorn (NED).
Status: offline
The feel of 2D10 is totally different from the 1D10.

The trick with 2D10 is to watch the modifiers you can get (both positive and negative). They are directly calculated above the result you get from the odds ratio.

Those modifiers are everything for both the defender and the attacker. Any attack with a final result of +11 after all modifiers or more is a good one, IMHO. Any attack lower than +9 I consider to be very risky.

Personally I prefer 2D10 because of the higher chance of losses, because of all the extra units in play.

_____________________________

Peter

(in reply to Ian R)
Post #: 51
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 2/13/2020 2:51:40 PM   
brian brian

 

Posts: 3128
Joined: 11/16/2005
Status: offline
To understand the 2d10 table, it helps to step back and re-examine the 1d10 chart and how die modifiers work on it.

And never forget that 1:1 = +2, 2:1 = +4.

Let's say you have a desperate situation and you need to make a 2:1 attack you would rather not make, but success would save the theater in question. Always helpful to attack a flipped unit, yes? So you try a Ground Strike on the defenders first, and you flip one of their corps/army units. Now you get a +1 on the 1d10 attack. If you read the 1d10 table results for 2:1 from 2 through 11, you will see that they are basically the same as the results for a 3:1 dice range of 1 through 10. (there are a couple minor discrepancies in column comparisons)

Now on the 2d10 table, attacking a flipped unit at 2:1 is a +6 attack, because you get a +2 modifier for the flipped unit - basically the same thing as an odds column shift.

The same dynamic is at play for "Blitz Bonus", which is not even optional on 2d10, iirc. On 2d10, an ARM or MECH defending in clear gets an automatic -2 in the 2d10 calculation - the same as reducing the odds by one column on 1d10, where it would instead receive a -1 to the land combat die roll, not a column shift.

That dynamic of some things being a column shift (weather) and some things (flipped, blitz mod for attacker or defender) being a die modifier in the 1d10 system is eliminated in 2d10 - everything is a die modifier.


The other big difference in 2d10 is that there are far more "half odds level" modifiers - things that aren't included in the 1d10 system at all. So attacking a city hex starts out with an automatic -1 in 2d10. An armored division can get a 1 point die modifier in 2d10 but is ignored in 1d10, etc.

And thus there is more room in the operational decisions on the map to reward combined-arms approaches. Engineers hold value. Not just armor divisions, but anti-tank assets hold dice influencing value.


Now the dice mechanism is different too in that the most likely die result is 11. You can still roll well, or roll poorly with 2d10; anything 2-4 is going to be little different than rolling a "1" in 1d10. But as you make more attacks in a single impulse, there is less chance that you will roll a "1" three times in a row, or even roll less than 5 sequentially. Any given attack has the same likely general outcome in either system, but a series of attacks is more variable in 1d10.


Also with air units, keep in mind how adding factors to a combat works, vs. attempting to get die modifiers. Generally it is not worth trying to Ground Strike a single unit though there can be other reasons to try it, like an out-of-supply defender. If that unit has 5 defense factors and you have a 5 factor Stuka, using the 5 factor Stuka as Ground Support automatically raises the odds level by 1 - the same as getting a +2 on the 2d10 calculation. Whereas a Ground Strike mission only has a 50% chance of success doing that, and costs you an air mission which is not unlimited, while flying Ground Support is unlimited.

But against a stack of 2 units each with 5 factors, using that same Stuka as Ground Support only gains you an automatic +1 on the 2d10 as 5:10 is half of the odds level. Sending the Stuka in as a Ground Strike can have 3 outcomes: neither unit flips (25%), one unit flips and adds +2 to the attack (50%), or both unit flip and adds +4 to the attack (25%).

And for anyone with only electronic experience playing World in Flames "flip" = "dis-organize" in MWiF.

(in reply to Centuur)
Post #: 52
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 2/13/2020 2:59:06 PM   
brian brian

 

Posts: 3128
Joined: 11/16/2005
Status: offline
p.s. I don't think learning 2d10 will have much impact in Poland when Germany is only attacking Poland. All attacks will be overwhelming high odds affairs anyway. You will start to see the dynamic of when to use an HQ in an attack to help reduce the penalty for attacking a city. That risks flipping the HQ and removing your capacity to re-organize the attacking units and trying again, but also makes the initial attack more likely to succeed.

Early operations in China are not much different either; Japan's ability to flip units is not like Germany's and there are rarely any units with tanks on the map. But in China, 2d10 HQ Support becomes a key decision for Japan in their land combats. HQ Support is an automatic die modifier in 2d10, not an additional die roll.

For Germany, the nuances of the 2d10 modifiers do start to become very important as they attempt to break through in Flanders, and the same is true for the French trying to stop them.

(in reply to brian brian)
Post #: 53
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 2/13/2020 9:41:18 PM   
paulderynck


Posts: 7922
Joined: 3/24/2007
From: Canada
Status: offline
I've always felt 1D10 with Divs and Arty but without the Blitz Bonus is pretty much WWI.

_____________________________

Paul

(in reply to brian brian)
Post #: 54
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 2/15/2020 5:12:35 PM   
Elessar2


Posts: 263
Joined: 11/30/2016
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Neilster

I haven't played with 2D10 but as it gives a distribution with more average results, I'd be inclined to prefer it. Weird results are possible but rare.

Actually, a 3D10 table would be good. It's gives a reasonable approximation of the Normal distribution without ridiculous complexity.

Cheers, Neilster





Or you could use 3D8, subtract 3 from the roll, a zero becomes a one, a 21 a 20. [or count 8's as zero's]

(in reply to Neilster)
Post #: 55
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 2/17/2020 12:07:50 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 18851
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline
My feel for the 2D10 table comes from my 2D10 Excel-based calculator. It's with this calculator that I can examine the odds between an assault and a blitz.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Ronnie

(in reply to Elessar2)
Post #: 56
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 2/17/2020 12:08:53 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 18851
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline
Or more significantly how much would +2 in HQ support, for example, increase my PWIN (i.e., probability of win).




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)
Post #: 57
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 2/17/2020 12:22:38 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 18851
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline
I've attached ver6 of my Excel 2D10 calculator for any and all who wish to use it.

The cells are locked so that the player can only input into certain cells. Also, the range of values in those cells are checked so that the user can only enter "valid" values.

The player inputs include:

# Attackers = total number of attacking ground units.

# Defenders = total number of defending ground units (does NOT include notionals). If only notionals are defending then the user would enter 0.

# Invaders = number of attackers that are invading (i.e., air drop or amphibious). The number of invaders is a subset of the total number of attackers. For example, if a hex is being amphibiously invaded by 3 land units and also attacked overland by 4 land units then the total number of attackers is 7 and the number of invaders is 3.

Extra Loss = is a flag as to whether or not the attacker is eligible for an extra loss (=1) or not (=0).

Odds = are the odds.

PWIN = probability that one or more of the attackers will survive and be eligible to advance into the defended hex.

Def Shat/Surv = chance that one or more defending units survive and are shattered.

Ex Def Kill = expected number of defending units killed.

Att 3 Loss = chance that the attacker will have to lose 3, or more, of their attacking units.

Att No Loss = chance that the attacker loses no units.

Att Ex Lost = expected number of attacking units lost.

Att Org = chance that all attackers remaining organized (except for an HQ that provides HQ support).

Att 1/2 Org = chance that half (round up) of all surviving attacking ground units remain organized.

Att Disorg = chance that all surviving attacking units are disorganized.

Ex Att Disorg = expected number of attacking units that will be disorganized.

For Blitz.

Brkthrough = flag (0 or 1) if a breakthrough is possible.

Breakthrough = chance of achieving a breakthrough (of course if Brkthrough=0, then that chance will always be 0%).

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)
Post #: 58
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 2/21/2020 7:09:56 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 21843
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline
Die roll probabilities summing two 10 sided dice, are simply 1 (up) -> 10 (down) -> 1. The air-to-air combat results table shows this on the right hand side.

For the 2D10 CRT I perform the following calculations - which can be done in your head.

1 - total the attacking factors, total the defending factors.

2 - double the attacking factors and divide by the defending factors.
To do this more easily, take multiples of the defending factors until you find the one just less that the attacking factors doubled. For example, I have 48 attacking factors against 13 defending factors. Multiples of 13 are: 13, 26, 39, 52 (# of cards in a deck of cards), 65, 78, 91, 104. Double 48 is 96, so the DRM is +7, with 5/13 left over. If I can add 4 factors of air support, that will give me 52 attack factors, doubled to 104, and I will have a DRM of +8.

3 - Memorize some crucial numbers on the 2D10.
- A +12 means the lowest die roll is 14 which kills a single defender using the Assault table. In the above example, I only have a +8 (with air support). That means I am 4 DRM short of certain death for a single defender in the hex. The odds of rolling too low to kill a single defender is therefore: 1+2+3+4 = 10%.

- There are 5 die rolls on the 2D10 Assault table with the result of 1 defender dies. Starting with +17, 2 defenders will certainly die. I am 9 DRM short of achieving that (17 - 8). The risk of not killing two units is: 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9 = 45%. I have a 55% chance of killing 2 units.

- To kill a 3rd unit (and with 13 defending factors, there most likely are 3 defenders in the hex), I need the DRM + die roll to be 20 or higher. I am 10 short of that, which is 55% likely to fail. 45% chance of killing all 3 defenders.

Memorize: +12 => kills 1; +17 kills 2, and +18 kills 3.

For the Blitz table, there are similar cut off points, but usually you are trying to make sure the attackers don't take any losses.


< Message edited by Shannon V. OKeets -- 2/21/2020 7:13:57 PM >


_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to rkr1958)
Post #: 59
RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 - 2/22/2020 1:50:17 AM   
Ian R

 

Posts: 2351
Joined: 8/1/2000
From: Sydney
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

- To kill a 3rd unit (and with 13 defending factors, there most likely are 3 defenders in the hex), I need the DRM + die roll to be 20 or higher. I am 10 short of that, which is 55% likely to fail. 45% chance of killing all 3 defenders.

Memorize: +12 => kills 1; +17 kills 2, and +18 kills 3.




This is why I said a DRM of 14 gives you a 10% chance of a poor result - probability of rolling adjusted 16, 17, 18, 19 are 1+2+3+4 = 10%. Putting that another way, you are 90% chance of an S or B result.



_____________________________

"You may find that having is not so nearly pleasing a thing as wanting. It is not logical, but it is often true."
- Cdr Spock


Ian R

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 60
Page:   <<   < prev  1 [2]
All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> World in Flames >> RE: 1D10 versus 2D10 Page: <<   < prev  1 [2]
Jump to:





New Messages No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages Locked w/o New Messages
 Post New Thread
 Reply to Message
 Post New Poll
 Submit Vote
 Delete My Own Post
 Delete My Own Thread
 Rate Posts


Forum Software © ASPPlayground.NET Advanced Edition 2.4.5 ANSI

0.172