Thanks. I guess you mean the "Logistics 101" update from Alfred? I couldn't find anything else by him that seemed to fit and the "search" function returned nothing. Bottom line seems to be FOW makes everything iffy, but the boomier the device, the more damage AND that the attacking player really can't get an accurate handle on the amount of supply damaged.... now that I think more about it, I guess that's fine, both historically and in terms of game play.... still, it would be nice to know when supply destruction is making the bombees ripe for a "minus" during a planned ground attack...
Alfred didn't start it, so Search is hard. He might weigh in here; he has an uncanny ability to find threads.
You are correct that the boomier (I don't recall the Editor field that is; Effect maybe?) the exploding device the more supply potentially lost. Then there's other stuff applied, especially randoms. And you are correct that the attacker never really knows how well he's doing in exact terms. He also doesn't know how much is coming in unless every hex side is closed and must account for organically-produced supply if the base has industry or gets "free" supply as a few do, especially in China.
I think a lot of players try to over-think this kind of thing and end up in the weeds worrying about 17% supply destruction versus 24% and forget to have a grand or even a regional strategy. When you attack if you get a (-) on his supply line in the combat report--you done good.
Hmm, I don't log on for a few days and I see in my absence a lot of "over-think".
Have a read of this thread
although there are plenty of others covering the same topic.
A couple of points to bear in mind. Firstly, a hit is a hit, it does not per se indicate damage was inflicted. Secondly, when damage is inflicted, the supply lost is a random amount based on the device's effect and anti-soft ratings. This means that the damage could be anything from 1 to [(device effect)(anti-soft rating)]/100.
There is therefore a trade off between bigger bombs tending to give a bigger "boomski" compared to more but smaller bombs having statistically a better chance to actually hit.