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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/10/2018 1:25:05 PM   
Canoerebel


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4/22/45

Siege of Singapore: Allied air force to attack Singers tonight and the Allied army at Johore Bahru has begun the march to the fortress, though that's a subterfuge and likely to be canceled or postponed.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/10/2018 1:50:59 PM   
Canoerebel


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4/22/45

China: The Allies may close the Kaifeng Pocket tomorrow. And Allied units are close to isolating the main IJ stack within a small perimeter, ripe for destruction.

Korea: Promising Allied attack east of Gunzan, with a planned shock attack tomorrow. If successful, the enemy MLR is broken. Engineers arrived in big numbers at Heijo today, where they'll build the high-value airfield quickly.

Strategic Bombing: Small but effective raid vs. Toyama today; larger raid vs. Nagasaki tomorrow.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/10/2018 2:04:22 PM   
Canoerebel


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4/22/45

Intel Screen: Only the slightest of positive increases in points today, though the Allied lead reaches the 70k threshold for the first time.

I had my PR staff post this image last, as today was all about setting the table to harvest points in more meaninful numbers in coming days. The table is set pretty well: Heijo airfield building; reduction of enemy army in Korea; pocketing of vast and vulnerable army in China within a fairly small perimeter that lacks good defensive terrain; etc.





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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/10/2018 4:04:19 PM   
Simonsez


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Canoe, if this is a feint (Singapore), why are your units in move mode in the screen shot? If you don't intend to jump the shark here, wouldn't it be more prudent to have the units in combat mode, lest something unwanted happens?

< Message edited by Simonsez -- 2/10/2018 4:10:02 PM >


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/10/2018 4:42:57 PM   
crsutton


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bif1961

Japan didn't unconditionally surrender, they got to keep the Emperor, who should have been tried as a war criminal, so their ending was difference then Germany's unconditional surrender. So having a different mindset is in the eye of the beholder.


The Allies allowed the Emperor to remain, there was no negotiation over that. The Emperor submitted with no guarantees about his future that I am aware of.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/10/2018 6:33:19 PM   
Mike McCreery


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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bif1961

Japan didn't unconditionally surrender, they got to keep the Emperor, who should have been tried as a war criminal, so their ending was difference then Germany's unconditional surrender. So having a different mindset is in the eye of the beholder.


The Allies allowed the Emperor to remain, there was no negotiation over that. The Emperor submitted with no guarantees about his future that I am aware of.


I think you are correct. The allies chose not to mess with a living God in order to prevent social unrest as it were.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/10/2018 10:52:37 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Simonsez
Canoe, if this is a feint (Singapore), why are your units in move mode in the screen shot? If you don't intend to jump the shark here, wouldn't it be more prudent to have the units in combat mode, lest something unwanted happens?


It's probably - but not certainly - a feint. I'm likely to stand the troops down in a turn or two, but I'm weighing the option of proceeding. The units will be changed to Combat mode before crossing river.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/11/2018 12:00:51 AM   
Canoerebel


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4/23/45

Today's most important objective (taking Chengting and closing the Kaifeng Pocket) was achieved. So it was a good day with lots of key objectives in sight. But it was also a frustrating day as lots of little ideas or objectives were thwarted or stymied or missed (and there was also one little nugget of promise too). Let's begin with this:

KB Ceylon: The RN carriers miss the intercept, traveling only ten hexes at flank speed while KB likewise moves 10 hexes. John got detection and is thoroughly alerted (and likely amused). My guys will retire in preparation for escorting a big reinforcement TF to Malaya.






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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/11/2018 12:10:04 AM   
Canoerebel


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4/23/45

Death Star: I liked the chances of slipping DS out of theater unnoticed, but that was thwarted by a inexplicable lack of movement followed by enemy detection on one TF. Drat it! But perhaps it's for the best - I'll likely leave DS in theater to help close the deal - end the war.






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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/11/2018 12:15:36 AM   
Canoerebel


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4/23/45

Singapore: 4EB nighttime raids fail to go due to weather...but recon shows that Singers' garrison might be down considerably. Can that be?





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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/11/2018 12:52:36 AM   
Canoerebel


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4/23/45

Korea: Allied army at Genzan in NE is stymied but terrain and forts. Elsewhere, things are shaping up nicely for the tough but winnable campaign to move on Fusan.





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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/11/2018 1:58:56 AM   
Canoerebel


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4/23/45

China: With the closing of the Kaifeng Pocket, the Japanese have no real ability to contest in China west of Peiping and Tientsin. The Chinese army will move up and take most of the responsibility for corralling and eliminating the core Japanese army. In a day or two, a significant Allied army should be able to detach and begin the campaign for Peiping.





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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 2/11/2018 1:59:10 AM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/11/2018 2:11:43 AM   
Canoerebel


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4/23/45

Intel Screen: Weather socked in the 4EB and a brief lull in points for bases and enemy troops mean a low yield on points for the second consecutive day. But both days were highly productive. We should see a marked increase in points over coming days.






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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/11/2018 8:42:50 PM   
paullus99


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John must have had such high hopes for his raid into the IO - and just like his hopes in China and Korea, they've come crashing down around his ears.

I can really appreciate CR's ultimate focus on the end-game. He has encapsulated the best parts of both Grant & Sherman....while John has adopted the worst aspects of Hood, Stuart and Bragg.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/11/2018 9:22:24 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

John must have had such high hopes for his raid into the IO - and just like his hopes in China and Korea, they've come crashing down around his ears.


Weird, if you were going to do it, do it. Instead we got less than half the KB and he's got some small SCTF floating about the yellow sea. Why not send it all into the Bay of Bengal? Could have picked up a bunch of points as Dan didn't have enough to stop the full KB. Best case you put of the inevitable for a week or two, worst case game ends a week early. I think Korea was a decent plan. He brought the best of what he had and lots of it. Unfortunately, the IJA can't really go toe to toe with the Allies in 1945. Too much firepower in those units

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/12/2018 12:32:39 AM   
Canoerebel


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Communique from John III, graduate of the Keith Olbermann School of Diplomacy:

You are correct that the VP’s are moving but not that fast. You had a chance to bag a BUNCH of VP with that botched CV attack. Appreciated all those Fighters on CAP and not available to fly as escorts. I’ve never been a VP person. You know that but if this instance it makes sense to me. Thought we’d hit 2-1 about now but have managed to slightly move it back. We have bets from Forum players as to when that number is reached.

Looks like you get to experience what every Japanese player does in assaulting Singapore. Might be pretty interesting to watch.


Botched?

He thought we'd hit 2:1 about now? He told me ten days ago that he'd put his money on May 10.

I'm still not sure about Singers, but his thoughts on the matter are appreciated.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/12/2018 12:44:34 AM   
Canoerebel


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4/24/45

Singapore: Allied army approaches Singers in good order. For reasons set forth below, I'm postponing the attack, but this exercise gave me some helpful information about movement rates and supply levels.






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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/12/2018 1:03:36 AM   
Canoerebel


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4/24/45

Korea: A good day, with key attacks in the south showing promise and a bit of progress in the north.

China: The Kaifeng Pocket is tightening around a Japanese army.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/12/2018 1:15:41 AM   
Canoerebel


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4/24/45

Intel Screen: A pretty good day today, with momentum building (I think) in China and Korea.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/12/2018 10:04:14 AM   
IJV

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Probably not pretty?


Probably not, but I suppose the open question is whether it would matter.

J3 is probably about right in saying that you're experiencing what the Japanese do in attacking Singapore - your force looks about the size of the average Japanese force c. 1942; the defending force, by your estimate, is about the size of the average Allied force c.1942; the base control geography is about the same, just inverted, and the relative firepower difference is probably a bit better than in the roles-reversed scenario. So, think about how the Singapore assaults tend to go from the Japanese perspective:

- There's an initial strait crossing whiff into strong fortifications that causes a lot of disablements, slows things down for several days to a week, but causes little lasting damage because the attacking units start essentially intact, with few disablements, so damage is incurred as mostly disablement rather than destruction;

- After that period of rest, the force is mostly back to where it started, bar maybe a couple of bits that have to toddle off to have a nap somewhere quiet; between high experience and, sometimes, splitting units, disabled devices recover quickly;

- Attacks can then occur; they can sometimes be awkward but it's easy enough to move units in and out, and there's no particular need to attack with less than decently healthy units;

- Defenders can't meaningfully contest the air, because other bases are miles away, and can support by sea up to a point but only at risk of unpleasant accidents;

- End result - base falls in 2-4 weeks, attacking force is a bit threadbare about the edges but essentially fine with little long-term damage.

In this scenario I'd probably be inclined, presuming your attacking force has limited disablements and that it'll take a couple of weeks to get the reinforcements into position, to get the crossing over and done with:

- The defending force is probably a couple of divisions at most ie not so much of a force that the combat system starts to go all weird - likely lots of base/support troops and not overly much combat power as the number of guns/vehicles you've posted hasn't suggested anything too frightening;

- Urban terrain works both ways - yes it's painful to hit, but once you're there you're unlikely to be removed, and of course you have malaria on the one side but not the other (unless Johore is significantly built out?);

- Ultimately, if you cross now, you probably won't be significantly worse off than you would have been by the time the reinforcing force arrives, with the extra bonuses that you won't need to fret about further reinforcements and that the additional force wil be able to just waltz in without any fuss.

Or I could be completely wrong and you'll get hopelessly beaten up. Only one way to find out...

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Post #: 13760
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/12/2018 10:19:08 AM   
Powloon

 

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Just wondered if you have any assault shipping in the Malaya area? You have many units already prepped at 100% why not try an amphibious invasion based out of Johre Bahru under heavy CAP rather than a crossing? Obviously Japanese players avoid this in 42 due to the big CD unit there but John is unlikely to have anything on that scale there.


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Post #: 13761
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/12/2018 10:27:15 AM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Communique from John III, graduate of the Keith Olbermann School of Diplomacy:

You are correct that the VP’s are moving but not that fast. You had a chance to bag a BUNCH of VP with that botched CV attack. Appreciated all those Fighters on CAP and not available to fly as escorts. I’ve never been a VP person. You know that but if this instance it makes sense to me. Thought we’d hit 2-1 about now but have managed to slightly move it back. We have bets from Forum players as to when that number is reached.

Looks like you get to experience what every Japanese player does in assaulting Singapore. Might be pretty interesting to watch.


Botched?

He thought we'd hit 2:1 about now? He told me ten days ago that he'd put his money on May 10.

I'm still not sure about Singers, but his thoughts on the matter are appreciated.



Please let me know if I ever make the list of KOSD graduates. We all say things that are intended differently and/or misinterpreted through textual communication ...

... but John seems to lack a filter completely sometimes. I wouldn't mind his audacity in pointing out things you might have missed if he could take it coming back the other way. Not sure that's the case though. Hey, we can't all be diplomats, and at least you guys maintain a good relationship outside of game communication emails.

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Post #: 13762
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/12/2018 12:52:08 PM   
Canoerebel


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I'll let you know, Obvert, but I don't think there's any possibility of that happening. It's just not your personality. I've played a sizeable number of opponents now. None has been remotely like John III.

Sometimes, especially earlier in the game, I find his in-game conduct infuriating - especially when he seems to cross a line into goading or taunting. Unfortunately, he is prone to doing that.

Later in the game, when he's really struggling, there's sometimes a pathetic aspect. "Thought we'd hit 2:1 about now" is an example, given that he'd recently made a big deal of predicting a May 10 capitulation date. Back in late '43, as the Allies were moving towards the DEI for Big Tent, he kept sending emails predicting I was going to land at Manikwari, Biak and Sabang, as if that was hard to guess when a big fleet had passed Truk and was moving west. I wanted to ask him why, if he was prescient, he hadn't garrisoned the bases? The answer, of course, was he hadn't foreseen anything until the ships were bearing down on those targets and there were no other targets in between. (The actual suite of major targets was Manokwari, Sabang, Morotai, Boela, and Ambon, none of which were defended).

But the bigger picture remains the same - outside the game, we have become good friends....and the matters of everyday life offer perspective: his mom's situation...and reminders served by events like SqzMyLemon's jarring news. Hey, it's a game, and part of playing John III is dealing with his erratic and sometimes annoying in-game personality.




< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 2/12/2018 1:06:14 PM >

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Post #: 13763
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/12/2018 12:56:08 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Powloon

Just wondered if you have any assault shipping in the Malaya area? You have many units already prepped at 100% why not try an amphibious invasion based out of Johre Bahru under heavy CAP rather than a crossing? Obviously Japanese players avoid this in 42 due to the big CD unit there but John is unlikely to have anything on that scale there.


That's a good idea! Yes, I have assault shipping and 7th Australian Div. 100% prepped for Singers and sitting on Mindanao. I've given thought to an amphibious invasion and probably will trigger one if and when Death Star comes south to handle things in the DEI. THat nearly happened two turns back until John caught wind of the move. So I cancelled it and think it's more likely the war will end with Death Star in the Yellow Sea. But the option is open and under evaluation every turn.



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Post #: 13764
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/12/2018 12:58:02 PM   
Canoerebel


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Thanks for a thorough analysis with helpful advice/thoughts.

Hey, you've been lurking more than two years with just 26 posts? You clearly have a lot of experience. Who art thou?

quote:

ORIGINAL: IJV

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Probably not pretty?


Probably not, but I suppose the open question is whether it would matter.

J3 is probably about right in saying that you're experiencing what the Japanese do in attacking Singapore - your force looks about the size of the average Japanese force c. 1942; the defending force, by your estimate, is about the size of the average Allied force c.1942; the base control geography is about the same, just inverted, and the relative firepower difference is probably a bit better than in the roles-reversed scenario. So, think about how the Singapore assaults tend to go from the Japanese perspective:

- There's an initial strait crossing whiff into strong fortifications that causes a lot of disablements, slows things down for several days to a week, but causes little lasting damage because the attacking units start essentially intact, with few disablements, so damage is incurred as mostly disablement rather than destruction;

- After that period of rest, the force is mostly back to where it started, bar maybe a couple of bits that have to toddle off to have a nap somewhere quiet; between high experience and, sometimes, splitting units, disabled devices recover quickly;

- Attacks can then occur; they can sometimes be awkward but it's easy enough to move units in and out, and there's no particular need to attack with less than decently healthy units;

- Defenders can't meaningfully contest the air, because other bases are miles away, and can support by sea up to a point but only at risk of unpleasant accidents;

- End result - base falls in 2-4 weeks, attacking force is a bit threadbare about the edges but essentially fine with little long-term damage.

In this scenario I'd probably be inclined, presuming your attacking force has limited disablements and that it'll take a couple of weeks to get the reinforcements into position, to get the crossing over and done with:

- The defending force is probably a couple of divisions at most ie not so much of a force that the combat system starts to go all weird - likely lots of base/support troops and not overly much combat power as the number of guns/vehicles you've posted hasn't suggested anything too frightening;

- Urban terrain works both ways - yes it's painful to hit, but once you're there you're unlikely to be removed, and of course you have malaria on the one side but not the other (unless Johore is significantly built out?);

- Ultimately, if you cross now, you probably won't be significantly worse off than you would have been by the time the reinforcing force arrives, with the extra bonuses that you won't need to fret about further reinforcements and that the additional force wil be able to just waltz in without any fuss.

Or I could be completely wrong and you'll get hopelessly beaten up. Only one way to find out...


(in reply to IJV)
Post #: 13765
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/12/2018 1:06:17 PM   
jwolf

 

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The main difference at Singapore now vs. 1942 is that the Japanese presumably have much higher forts than the British did back then.

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Post #: 13766
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/12/2018 1:08:37 PM   
Canoerebel


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Right.

I've had some miserable experiences hitting atolls with six forts, so the thought of Singers with nine is pretty frightening.

Is Singers also Light Urban terrain (I can't tell from my map, because mouseover info is concealed by unit info at the base.

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Post #: 13767
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/12/2018 1:32:14 PM   
Alfred

 

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A sea invasion of Singapore is not a good idea.  You would be landing troops with no supply line.

Crossing the Johore Strait is the correct path to take.

Based on post #13757 the Japanese garrison at Singapore is only about 1140 AV.  That represents about 50% of the size of the Allied army fully prepped for Singapore.  Furthermore the discrepancy between the two sides in firepower terms will be considerably greater in favour of the Allied army.

Cross the Johore Strait and most of the Allied casualties will be only disablements whereas because of the firepower discrepancy together with the nature of it being an auto shock attack, a substantial part of the Japanese casualties will be outright killed devices.  Quite likely that the forts will be lowered 1 or 2 levels just from the auto shock attack.  Plus you will then have a secure overland supply line back to your supply depots and no need to run the gauntlet of losing ships bringing in supply.

Once across, your army will starve the Japanese garrison without the need to do anything.  Consequently it will be the Japanese who will need to run the gauntlet of shipping in supply or allowing their army to weaken from starvation and become easy pickings for a recovered Allied army attacking.

Alfred

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Post #: 13768
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/12/2018 1:42:46 PM   
Canoerebel


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Thanks, Alfred. That's very helpful information.

I had considered opening the siege with an invasion by 7th Aussie Div. and a US combat engineer unit (both 100% prepped and currently in the southern Philippines), just before the river crossing by the main army.

I'll give all of this more thought.


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Post #: 13769
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/12/2018 2:05:54 PM   
Alfred

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Right.

I've had some miserable experiences hitting atolls with six forts, so the thought of Singers with nine is pretty frightening.

Is Singers also Light Urban terrain (I can't tell from my map, because mouseover info is concealed by unit info at the base.


I doubt that Singapore has level 9 forts.

Japan is not as well equipped with construction engineers as are the Allies. Furthermore the time and supply cost to build above level 6 is substantial and requires a constant minimum of 25k supply. The size of the Japanese garrison disclosed in your screenshots would not have necessitated having 25k+. In those circumstances how likely do you think that supply would have been consistently shipped in to Singapore by Japan.

Whilst one cannot be absolutely certain that the Singapore forts are not above level 6, the odds are that at most they are only level 6, and that assumes your opponent saw the potential threat to Singapore some time ago. Which would be quite a prophylactic action in an environment where he has been focused on land combat in China and Korea plus countering your bombing of the Home Islands.

Alfred

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Post #: 13770
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