From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Thanks for a thorough analysis with helpful advice/thoughts.
Hey, you've been lurking more than two years with just 26 posts? You clearly have a lot of experience. Who art thou?
Probably not pretty?
Probably not, but I suppose the open question is whether it would matter.
J3 is probably about right in saying that you're experiencing what the Japanese do in attacking Singapore - your force looks about the size of the average Japanese force c. 1942; the defending force, by your estimate, is about the size of the average Allied force c.1942; the base control geography is about the same, just inverted, and the relative firepower difference is probably a bit better than in the roles-reversed scenario. So, think about how the Singapore assaults tend to go from the Japanese perspective:
- There's an initial strait crossing whiff into strong fortifications that causes a lot of disablements, slows things down for several days to a week, but causes little lasting damage because the attacking units start essentially intact, with few disablements, so damage is incurred as mostly disablement rather than destruction;
- After that period of rest, the force is mostly back to where it started, bar maybe a couple of bits that have to toddle off to have a nap somewhere quiet; between high experience and, sometimes, splitting units, disabled devices recover quickly;
- Attacks can then occur; they can sometimes be awkward but it's easy enough to move units in and out, and there's no particular need to attack with less than decently healthy units;
- Defenders can't meaningfully contest the air, because other bases are miles away, and can support by sea up to a point but only at risk of unpleasant accidents;
- End result - base falls in 2-4 weeks, attacking force is a bit threadbare about the edges but essentially fine with little long-term damage.
In this scenario I'd probably be inclined, presuming your attacking force has limited disablements and that it'll take a couple of weeks to get the reinforcements into position, to get the crossing over and done with:
- The defending force is probably a couple of divisions at most ie not so much of a force that the combat system starts to go all weird - likely lots of base/support troops and not overly much combat power as the number of guns/vehicles you've posted hasn't suggested anything too frightening;
- Urban terrain works both ways - yes it's painful to hit, but once you're there you're unlikely to be removed, and of course you have malaria on the one side but not the other (unless Johore is significantly built out?);
- Ultimately, if you cross now, you probably won't be significantly worse off than you would have been by the time the reinforcing force arrives, with the extra bonuses that you won't need to fret about further reinforcements and that the additional force wil be able to just waltz in without any fuss.
Or I could be completely wrong and you'll get hopelessly beaten up. Only one way to find out...