From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Operation Roller Coaster: The Allies take Ailinglaplap today but don't have the oomph to take Maloelap or Majuro. Troops at those two places will rest a few days before the next attack. It doesn't appear that John is bringing in reinforcements by air, probably because his hold on both places is so tenuous. So the Allies now have Jaluit, Ailinglaplap, Mili and Wotje.
The main Allied combat and amphibious TFs moved south to near Mili. Lots of enemy Jakes on patrol downed by CAP. Recon shows Makin Island empty (fast transports will bring in a Marine 'chutes battalion tonight). Weather prevents recon of Tarawa, a level 3 airfield. D-Day at Tarawa is probably three days away.
No sign of enemy carriers or combat ships. John's had plenty of time to send them here. Possibly he has them upgrading or has elected not to come to the defense of the Marshalls. I'm worried about a KB ambush, but the Allies have eight fleet carriers (counting Victorious), one CVL, and eight CVE. And LRCAP from Mili will be available for another turn.
Enemy TFs at Kusaie and Ponape.
Operation Circus: Half KB North moved east of Attu to contribute LRCAP to Amchitka. SigInt that a construction battalion is inbound here and an AA unit inbound to Attu. A CB/CA TF bombarded Adak Island to good effect, nearly shutting down the airfield and damaging a host of fighters. Subs claimed a few barges bringing in elements of a base force to Ulak and an engineer unit to Adak. Dutch is down to 50k (from 81k, shooting for 35k).
Battle of Sumatra: Enemy artillery bombardment at Sabang again chews up Japanese guns, but supply is down to 3.7k. No ship bombardments. Scattered bombing attacks are mostly ineffective (except, of course, in using up some supply). Either tomorrow or next turn, I'd expect John to unleash a big bombardment, all bombers, and either a shock attack (likely) or a deliberate attack, depending on how confident he is. The base will fall, I think. D Plus 8 Months is in six days. I doubt Sabang holds that long. The remnant Allied troops will then fight in the jungle a few more turns.
With regard to Japanese reinforcements in the Marshalls and Aleutians, this is an understandable move by John to shore up his defenses, though an argument might be made he's better off not reinforcing right under the nose of the Allies, who are growing much stronger now. It suits me to have reinforcements at these bases, because the Allies will focus here, close to their own bases, for the next several months. No deep penetrations are planned on the order of Circus and Roller Coaster. The plan is to find the enemy (ground, air, sea), engage, and destroy as much as possible. From that perspective, having enemy troops at Amchitka or Shemya or Kusaie puts enemy troops in the field of fire.
In the past five weeks, Japan has lost many undefended islands and the following defended outposts: Adak, Umnak, Cold Bay, Wotje, Ailinglaplap, Mili and Jaluit. Among the defenders were HQ units (NE Fleet at Cold Bay, if memory serves) a variety of mostly small ground units, and the CD guns. All told, Japan might have lost 20k to 30k units. And that's the mission for the rest of the summer.