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Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can codes! - 5/1/2012 3:02:21 PM   
el cid again

 

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Historians: Pearl Harbor attack prompted by intelligence discrepancyKOBE, Japan -- Japan may have attacked Pearl Harbor because decoded U.S. cables did not prepare its leaders for American demands that the imperial army withdraw from China and Southeast Asia, a Japanese scholar said Wednesday.

Previously classified Foreign Ministry documents reveal a turning point that may have persuaded doves in the Japanese government that war with the United States was necessary, Kobe University law professor Toshihiro Minohara said.

"The discovery will probably help reevaluate the history of this period," Minohara told The Associated Press before announcing his findings.

That turning point came in November 1941, just weeks before the Dec. 7 attack that killed 2,390 and plunged America into World War II.

Japan and the United States had been at odds for years over the imperial army's march through Asia. On Nov. 22, 1941, Tokyo intercepted a Chinese telegram saying the United States would propose allowing Japan to keep its colonies if it abandoned further aggression, Minohara said. The telegram was sent from the Chinese Embassy in Washington to Chinese government officials in the wartime capital of Chungking, now Chongqing.

The sudden possibility of a compromise strengthened the position of Foreign Minister Shigenori Togo, who opposed war with the United States and was trying to persuade militarists in the government to back down, Minohara said.

But the official U.S. position, sent to Japan on Nov. 26, was entirely different: Agree to withdraw from China and Southeast Asia or say goodbye to a diplomatic solution.

That message, sent to Japan's embassy in Washington by then-Secretary of State Cordell Hull, was interpreted as an ultimatum and convinced pacifists in the Japanese government that war was inevitable.

"I was so shocked I even felt dizzy," Togo later wrote in his memoirs. "At this point, we had no choice but to take action."

Researchers also said Japan broke secret codes employed by the United States, Britain, China and Canada between May 18, 1941, and Dec. 3, 1941.

Kobe University professor Makoto Iokibe said that "defies the common belief ... that Japan was behind in the information war against the U.S. and others," the agency reported.

But Japan's extensive spying operations misguided it about Washington's intentions. Intercepted telegrams, from multiple sources including U.S. telegrams, suggested the United States was about to propose the two nations cooperate on obtaining natural resources in Southeast Asia, Minohara said.

Japanese scholars researching declassified government documents also say Japan may have tried to warn the United States about the attack.

The documents say staff at Japan's embassy in Washington were slow to decipher a de facto declaration of war and didn't hand it to the U.S. government until almost an hour after the attack began.



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RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/1/2012 3:17:43 PM   
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RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/1/2012 3:51:47 PM   
dr.hal


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Now this is interesting! Can anyone add to this thread? Could there have been backdoor communication channels that were ignored? It certainly wouldn't be the first time in history! Hal

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RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/1/2012 5:03:05 PM   
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Read Caputo, "The Pacific War" Drea "Imperial Japanese Army", and Frank McClynn's Burma book for a bigger picture aspect to this piece of sensationalism regarding the buildup to war. It is not news that Western policy helped influence Japan's decision for war. Things are never black and white. Japan wanted to expand into Asia. The West, including the US had their own Asian agenda. It however does not make Japan a victim.

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RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/1/2012 5:07:48 PM   
dr.hal


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nikademus

Read Caputo, "The Pacific War" Drea "Imperial Japanese Army", and Frank McClynn's Burma book for a bigger picture aspect to this piece of sensationalism regarding the buildup to war. It is not news that Western policy helped influence Japan's decision for war. Things are never black and white. Japan wanted to expand into Asia. The West, including the US had their own Asian agenda. It however does not make Japan a victim.

Yes Nik, I understand that. But to me, this particular twist is new. I've never read about this side of that prewar dance. Hal

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RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/1/2012 5:52:27 PM   
JWE

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: dr.hal
quote:

ORIGINAL: Nikademus
Read Caputo, "The Pacific War" Drea "Imperial Japanese Army", and Frank McClynn's Burma book for a bigger picture aspect to this piece of sensationalism regarding the buildup to war. It is not news that Western policy helped influence Japan's decision for war. Things are never black and white. Japan wanted to expand into Asia. The West, including the US had their own Asian agenda. It however does not make Japan a victim.

Yes Nik, I understand that. But to me, this particular twist is new. I've never read about this side of that prewar dance. Hal

Minohara Toshihiro is a rather strange individual. He is a political science lecturer at Kobe University, whose entire career is built around documenting and proving rascism against the Japanese, by virtually everyone, but particularly the Americans. The majority of his publications on foreign relations have a distinctly Maoist flavor.

So far as this particular publication is concerned (written in 2001, btw, and urinated on by every legitimate historian in Japan), I wouldn't characterize him as a conspiracy theory nut-job, but his Précis is based on a few very carefully selected out-of-context quotes, while ignoring hundreds of others that conflict with his agenda. He is not taken seriously, either in Japan, or in the general historical community. But, hey ! this gives people something to buzz about on wargaming websites, so what the heck, yeah?

The twist is new only because somebody ignored the entire sum of evidence, in pursuit of an agenda. Even Kobe University is having second thoughts about having a person with so little regard for the truth on its staff.

Shannen Doherty has some new particular twists on aliens and ghosts, too. Ever notice how the aliens never seem to have epicanthic folds? Woof !!



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RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/1/2012 6:07:24 PM   
dr.hal


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Good input JWE, as E.H.Carr said, "Know thy historian".....

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RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/1/2012 6:44:33 PM   
JWE

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: dr.hal
Good input JWE, as E.H.Carr said, "Know thy historian".....

Truer words were never spoken. There are hundreds of programs on scores of cable channels, whose only claim to legitimacy is "Hey ! It's on TV ! So it must be true ! And if you are stupid enough to believe it, please send donations to ..."

Carr is a smart man. Knowing the historian puts a lot of things into proper perspective. It doesn't make "stuff" invalid, it just makes it thought provoking, on one hand, or worth dismissing, on the other.

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RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/1/2012 7:38:47 PM   
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That info about the source makes sense given the weak nature of the claims in the report and the context of all the historical evidence out there about the time. This looks like a very typical news "report" that grabs a press release and markets it in a way to enhance the "reporter's" career. I wouldn't be surprised to see a "breaking news" item on some TV news program about this claim sometime in the next 5 or 6 months.

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RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/1/2012 7:53:18 PM   
treespider


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quote:

ORIGINAL: el cid again

On Nov. 22, 1941, Tokyo intercepted a Chinese telegram saying the United States would propose allowing Japan to keep its colonies if it abandoned further aggression, Minohara said. The telegram was sent from the Chinese Embassy in Washington to Chinese government officials in the wartime capital of Chungking, now Chongqing.





As I currently work for the government, and write reports about the information I gather I can see this scenario...

Mrs. Chiang was invited to dinner party hosted by a prominent Republican Senator, a known isolationist, in early November, 1941. While sampling the latest offering of caviar Mrs. Chiang is befriended by the dear Senators wife. Over the ensuing cocktail the dear Senators wife relates to Mrs. Chiang her husband's personal feelings on the best way of resolving the ever increasing tensions in the Far East keeping the US at peace. After the dinner party Mrs. Chiang relates this information to her husband.

Mr. Chiang compiles a report for his boss conveniently leaving out the bit about Mrs. Chiang and the senators wife and the caviar. He does include phrases such as...This is an information report, not finally evaluated intelligence. It is being shared for informational purposes but has not been fully evaluated, integrated with other information, interpreted,or analyzed... or.... this information is based upon multiple verified undocumented sources. He provides the report to his boss as if it is the official stance of the US government. Mr. Chiang's boss then has ...the telegram "sent from the Chinese Embassy in Washington to Chinese government officials in the wartime capital of Chungking, now Chongqing."

Where the telegram lies in wait for a conspiracy nut to latch onto 50 years after the fact as the needle of truth in the hay pile history.



< Message edited by treespider -- 5/1/2012 7:55:09 PM >


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RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/1/2012 8:43:47 PM   
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quote:

ORIGINAL: treespider
Where the telegram lies in wait for a conspiracy nut to latch onto 50 years after the fact as the needle of truth in the hay pile history.




I vote for Douglas Dietrich to properly air out this latest fantastic discovery. "Chiang cable cuts the cord of the web of Deceit revolving around the origins of WWII in the Pacific"

Coast to Coast will love it.






< Message edited by Nikademus -- 5/1/2012 8:44:03 PM >


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RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/1/2012 9:03:02 PM   
dr.hal


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quote:

ORIGINAL: treespider

quote:

ORIGINAL: el cid again

On Nov. 22, 1941, Tokyo intercepted a Chinese telegram saying the United States would propose allowing Japan to keep its colonies if it abandoned further aggression, Minohara said. The telegram was sent from the Chinese Embassy in Washington to Chinese government officials in the wartime capital of Chungking, now Chongqing.





As I currently work for the government, and write reports about the information I gather I can see this scenario...

Mrs. Chiang was invited to dinner party hosted by a prominent Republican Senator, a known isolationist, in early November, 1941. While sampling the latest offering of caviar Mrs. Chiang is befriended by the dear Senators wife. Over the ensuing cocktail the dear Senators wife relates to Mrs. Chiang her husband's personal feelings on the best way of resolving the ever increasing tensions in the Far East keeping the US at peace. After the dinner party Mrs. Chiang relates this information to her husband.

Mr. Chiang compiles a report for his boss conveniently leaving out the bit about Mrs. Chiang and the senators wife and the caviar. He does include phrases such as...This is an information report, not finally evaluated intelligence. It is being shared for informational purposes but has not been fully evaluated, integrated with other information, interpreted,or analyzed... or.... this information is based upon multiple verified undocumented sources. He provides the report to his boss as if it is the official stance of the US government. Mr. Chiang's boss then has ...the telegram "sent from the Chinese Embassy in Washington to Chinese government officials in the wartime capital of Chungking, now Chongqing."

Where the telegram lies in wait for a conspiracy nut to latch onto 50 years after the fact as the needle of truth in the hay pile history.



So is this the diplomatic version of "Telephone"?

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RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/1/2012 9:59:14 PM   
mike scholl 1

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: dr.hal

Good input JWE, as E.H.Carr said, "Know thy historian".....



So true. Obtaining an advanced degree does not necessarily prevent the recipient from "selling snake oil" or having "an axe to grind"....

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RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/1/2012 10:40:08 PM   
JWE

 

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Oh heavens. M'kay, before everybody piles on, a couple things. The so-called story was from an AP article written over 10 years ago, in 2001, when Mr. Minohara published his 'discoveries'. Apparently this went unnoticed by the OP. Also unnoticed was the rest of the article, wherein the claims were effectively debunked.

Probably the OP went webcrawling and found a spiffy headline on page 31. Either the OP was thinking 10 years is a long time and people tend to forget, or was just completely oblivious to reality. Either way, effect is the same. There really is nothing here of note that hasn't been relegated to the dumpster a decade ago. Just mentioning this because of Dr Hal's expressed interest. Ciao. J

btw, Dr Hal, can turn you on to translations of several of Minohara's least objectionable papers, if you are into that sort of thing. If so, PM me.

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RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/1/2012 10:54:53 PM   
dwg

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: el cid again
Japanese scholars researching declassified government documents also say Japan may have tried to warn the United States about the attack.

The documents say staff at Japan's embassy in Washington were slow to decipher a de facto declaration of war and didn't hand it to the U.S. government until almost an hour after the attack began.


Wow, we've only known about this since, what, 7th December 1941? Interesting use of the verb 'warn', though: 'Pretend to satisfy the demands of honour by informing the US of the outbreak of war before the surprise attack, but not so 'before' that they can do anything about it'.

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RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/3/2012 10:35:39 PM   
el cid again

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: dr.hal

Good input JWE, as E.H.Carr said, "Know thy historian".....



I tend to agree. That does not change the significance of the "selected quotes" to me, however.
If they existed to select in the first place, that is quite interesting.

Japanese is difficult to read - even for native speakers. My daughter used to go to a Japanese
immersion school full of academics who were lifetime speakers - I taught her enough to skip two
years and start in second grade - but if I bought in a document or phrase from the WWII era - they
found it almost impossible to render into English. [A good example was an article on the I-400
design, by an officer who had served on her: he used the term "hypothetical" to describe an alternative
design, but the closest the academics got was "etherial."] There is a massive official encyclopedia
over 100 volumes long, but it is very hard to use - and no one is attempting to translate most of its
items.

It remains that Japan did have some intelligence coups. Every briefing of the Prime Minister on the status
of US atomic research was correct and not very out of date. Japanese intel organizations have a policy of
silence - they do not trumpet their successes even long afterward. Any tidbits - even selective ones -
are useful contributions to what we know.

I don't care about how the intel was used as much as that it existed in the first place.

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RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/3/2012 10:37:29 PM   
el cid again

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: dwg


quote:

ORIGINAL: el cid again
Japanese scholars researching declassified government documents also say Japan may have tried to warn the United States about the attack.

The documents say staff at Japan's embassy in Washington were slow to decipher a de facto declaration of war and didn't hand it to the U.S. government until almost an hour after the attack began.


Wow, we've only known about this since, what, 7th December 1941? Interesting use of the verb 'warn', though: 'Pretend to satisfy the demands of honour by informing the US of the outbreak of war before the surprise attack, but not so 'before' that they can do anything about it'.


WE knew enough to delay delivery of the message - which is a kind of political slight of hand. But in war, all is fair - and winning political points is what politicians should do. Because we were reading their codes. What is fascinating is that they were reading ours.

During WWII we believed the "scrambled" phone calls between FDR and Churchill were "secure" because it was "virtually impossible"
to unscramble them. But the Transatlantic Cable ended in occupied Holland. German Naval Intel had a real time unscrambler on that end,
and every single call was understood and converted to a transcript as it occurred. The 'war in the shadows' was a contest, not a one sided
affair. For various reasons, we hear more about our successes than we do about enemy ones. It hardly would sell a movie to glorify
an Axis codebreaker, after all.

Possibly the most interesting pre war intel coup was that of the KMT - which archives reveal it successfully manipulated the US and Japan into war "as the last, best hope for China." [China and the Origins of the Pacific War, Stansford University Press, Yaouli Sun working from declassified ROC archives]

< Message edited by el cid again -- 5/4/2012 12:17:28 AM >

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RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/4/2012 10:33:59 AM   
YankeeAirRat


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quote:

ORIGINAL: el cid again
Possibly the most interesting pre war intel coup was that of the KMT - which archives reveal it successfully manipulated the US and Japan into war "as the last, best hope for China." [China and the Origins of the Pacific War, Stansford University Press, Yaouli Sun working from declassified ROC archives]


SHENNIGANS!

The Americans knew that a war was going to break out between the US and Japan post 1898 and the siezure of the Philippines, Guam. That combined with the actions of the post Meji restoration Japan with the first Sino-Japanese war and the Russo-Japanese War; everyone who was even remotely paying attention knew that Japan was gunning for either the US or Britain as the Japanese became more and more sunk into the war in China. I seriously can't see that either the Communists of China or the Nationalists of China having a strong enough lobby, even with all the missionary types and folks like Pearl S. Buck telling a romantized version of China. In reality it was a minority that cared or enamored for China here in the US, remember that there was still a very big "yellow scare" and it wasn't until post-WW2 that our attitudes towards the Chinese change. Add in some of the policies that were being passed in the early part of the 20th century like the Alien Land Law excluded both Chinese and Japanese citizens from owning land, which also caused a major diplomatic row between the US and Japan. This law was passed only a year after the Nationalist Chinese Party formed. So I seriously discount that the KMT tried to manuver us towards war with Japan. Heck, according to numerous sources from well before the book quoted; talked about how Asiatic Fleet Commander Rear Admiral Thomas Hart was already talking with the the British as early as late 1940 and early 1941 on plans in case war with Japan would start. Hart was hoping to use Singapore as a planned refit base for any fleet units that came from the Atlantic to him or even a bug out place if the PI became unteniable. Add in he was also trying to coordinate plans of actions that the British would want to do with thier fleet units in Singapore and India. Most everyone in the Far East could see a potential conflict and for the Americans it was hopes that the Rainbow/War Plan Orange would hold together long enough to save the PI or at least allow for a quick recovery of same. As for the British they expected that Singapore would be able to hold out long enough for the Fleet and Army to come from India to same the British Far East. No one in either DC, 10 Downing, Cavitie, Singapore, or even the DEI expected any of these places to have fallen as fast or as quickly as they did.

Even more so if you read Tuchman's book aboiut Stilwell and the Chinese experience with America, you can read about how the KMT was more divided then any of the typical European courts at the time of knights. Various warlords and other folks were trying to make angles and plays to become the big dog to either be next to or replaced the Generalissmo. So I really can't see how the KMT could have manuvered the US into war with Japan when there was plenty of other background well before the KMT even exsisted .

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RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/4/2012 4:21:52 PM   
el cid again

 

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My reply to Big Red's pm request for more details was too long - so it is here -
in re the Chinese diplomacy in re the origins of the Pacific War:

See China and the Origins of the Pacific War
1931-1941

Youli Sun

St Martin's Press

ISBN 0-312-09010-2

or in paper 0-312-16454-8

1992

This was based on work as a graduate student at the University of Chicago
starting in 1987 by the author. Although based on ROC materials, Yaouli
was the first student from PRC of Japanese professor Akiria Iriye, whose
name implies he is Japanese. Likely these two - professor and student -
had a better grasp of how to read the Chinese language archives than most
people in the USA would have. Four other academics are cited for helping
the author, one of them Chinese and his professor of Chinese history,
three apparently "American" (a term I dislike using as it offends Canadians
and Latinos). That is - I do not suspect the writer of a PRC bias. His wife,
also Chinese, is also acknowledged as helping in the capacity of a librarian.
That is, this combination of people almost certainly have a superior grasp of
Chinese language materials than I do. The book is in English.

Material came from the Far Eastern Library of the University of Chicago,
the Library of Congress, the Hoover Institution, the Archival Section of
the Butler Library at the Columbia University (a major Chinese library,
under a different name in the new movie RED starring Bruce Willis),
the National Archives and the Franklin Roosevelt Library.

The author has a uniformly pro Chinese vs Imperial Japan attitude,
something common between both PRC and ROC during the War of
Resistance and afterward. He thinks China was the only one of the "9
powers" (referring I think to the 9 countries which relieved the siege
of Peking during the Boxer Rebellion and which established a new
regime for China) to resist Japan's unilateral breech of the deal in 1931.
The decision to fight Japan dates, he says, from 1937. [Other dates
include 1935 or 1931 - I usually say 1935 as the start of the War of
Resistance] Regardless, WWII properly begins here, in China, and
does not stop until 1945, by all measures. In important respects,
China is a vital strategic opponant to Japan, comparable to Russia for
Germany, one that possibly may be impossible to defeat. He cites
one book and two articles based on ROC materials prior to his own
work whch "revealed to us the active and shrewd diplomatic
maneuvers of the Chinese government from 1937 to 1945" He also
says the "best study of China's relations with Japan" is
Facing Japan: Chinese Politics and Japanese Imperialism" by
Park's Coble. It is "the most detailed treatment of Chinese politics
available in the English language and, while still following a somewhat
traditional approach, sheds much light on Chiang Kai-shek's polices
toward Japan." This implies Yaouli in his own mind is NOT following
a "taditional approach." He says there is much work on Japanese
politics, but not much on Chinese, in this period.

His view is there are two main points from a Chinese perspective:

1) Japan's aggression in China threatened Western interests;
also that there would be inivitable conflicts between Japan and
the other Imperialist powers in China.

2) It was practical to seek alliances against Japan not only to defend
the country, but also to permit ROC to concentrate on its domestic
enimies (which I assume means the Reds and various warlordy's).

This is entirely consistent with what I glean from Stillwell, among
others.

There was a serious movement toward an accomodation between
KMT and Japan (the No 2 politician, Wang Jing-wei, defected in fact,
and led the so-called pupit regime in Nanking, and it "made it
extremely difficult" for the ROC regime). Youli accounts
for the pressures, international and domestic, which caused the
concept of such accomodation to fail. There was real hope the
Soviet Union would intervene, as well as the United States. He cites
a political phrase re the USA unusually - in caps: "The Last Best Hope"
- to imply I suppose it was a very strong opinion. But I have run into
the same phrase without caps in other materials and it apparently was
in general use during the war.

The publisher's reviewer summarizes the material by saying that the
decision to keep fighting Japan as well as diplomacy were critical factors
in preventing a possible American-Japanese accomodation. We see an
example of such an accomodation after the Panay Incident. We also see
in the original terms of the embargo of oil, iron ore and rubber provisions
the intent not to fully impose them at once - although in fact they were -
for reasons unclear. This was the critical diplomatic development that led
to Japan's decision to mobilize in July 1941. [See Japan's Decision for
War, records of the 1941 Foreign Policy Conference, a study of Japanese
materials but, in this book, translated into English. Nobutaka Ike,
Stansford University Press, 1967 ISBN not in the original edition I have;
Library of Congress 940.5352 I26]










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RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/4/2012 4:25:51 PM   
el cid again

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: YankeeAirRat


quote:

ORIGINAL: el cid again
Possibly the most interesting pre war intel coup was that of the KMT - which archives reveal it successfully manipulated the US and Japan into war "as the last, best hope for China." [China and the Origins of the Pacific War, Stansford University Press, Yaouli Sun working from declassified ROC archives]


SHENNIGANS!

The Americans knew that a war was going to break out between the US and Japan post 1898 and the siezure of the Philippines, Guam. That combined with the actions of the post Meji restoration Japan with the first Sino-Japanese war and the Russo-Japanese War; everyone who was even remotely paying attention knew that Japan was gunning for either the US or Britain as the Japanese became more and more sunk into the war in China. I seriously can't see that either the Communists of China or the Nationalists of China having a strong enough lobby, even with all the missionary types and folks like Pearl S. Buck telling a romantized version of China. In reality it was a minority that cared or enamored for China here in the US, remember that there was still a very big "yellow scare" and it wasn't until post-WW2 that our attitudes towards the Chinese change. Add in some of the policies that were being passed in the early part of the 20th century like the Alien Land Law excluded both Chinese and Japanese citizens from owning land, which also caused a major diplomatic row between the US and Japan. This law was passed only a year after the Nationalist Chinese Party formed. So I seriously discount that the KMT tried to manuver us towards war with Japan. Heck, according to numerous sources from well before the book quoted; talked about how Asiatic Fleet Commander Rear Admiral Thomas Hart was already talking with the the British as early as late 1940 and early 1941 on plans in case war with Japan would start. Hart was hoping to use Singapore as a planned refit base for any fleet units that came from the Atlantic to him or even a bug out place if the PI became unteniable. Add in he was also trying to coordinate plans of actions that the British would want to do with thier fleet units in Singapore and India. Most everyone in the Far East could see a potential conflict and for the Americans it was hopes that the Rainbow/War Plan Orange would hold together long enough to save the PI or at least allow for a quick recovery of same. As for the British they expected that Singapore would be able to hold out long enough for the Fleet and Army to come from India to same the British Far East. No one in either DC, 10 Downing, Cavitie, Singapore, or even the DEI expected any of these places to have fallen as fast or as quickly as they did.

Even more so if you read Tuchman's book aboiut Stilwell and the Chinese experience with America, you can read about how the KMT was more divided then any of the typical European courts at the time of knights. Various warlords and other folks were trying to make angles and plays to become the big dog to either be next to or replaced the Generalissmo. So I really can't see how the KMT could have manuvered the US into war with Japan when there was plenty of other background well before the KMT even exsisted .



Shennnigans it isn't - but I do agree Tuchman's treatment is very revealing about ROC politics, divisions and policies. I find her presentation important confirmation Yauli Sun is on the right track - at so many points do they agree. But her treatment isn't nearly as based on archival materials - not yet available - as his is. To assume you understand what happened and ignore the actual archival material is a mistake.

(in reply to YankeeAirRat)
Post #: 20
RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/4/2012 4:37:26 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 24378
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: el cid again


quote:

ORIGINAL: YankeeAirRat


quote:

ORIGINAL: el cid again
Possibly the most interesting pre war intel coup was that of the KMT - which archives reveal it successfully manipulated the US and Japan into war "as the last, best hope for China." [China and the Origins of the Pacific War, Stansford University Press, Yaouli Sun working from declassified ROC archives]


SHENNIGANS!

The Americans knew that a war was going to break out between the US and Japan post 1898 and the siezure of the Philippines, Guam. That combined with the actions of the post Meji restoration Japan with the first Sino-Japanese war and the Russo-Japanese War; everyone who was even remotely paying attention knew that Japan was gunning for either the US or Britain as the Japanese became more and more sunk into the war in China. I seriously can't see that either the Communists of China or the Nationalists of China having a strong enough lobby, even with all the missionary types and folks like Pearl S. Buck telling a romantized version of China. In reality it was a minority that cared or enamored for China here in the US, remember that there was still a very big "yellow scare" and it wasn't until post-WW2 that our attitudes towards the Chinese change. Add in some of the policies that were being passed in the early part of the 20th century like the Alien Land Law excluded both Chinese and Japanese citizens from owning land, which also caused a major diplomatic row between the US and Japan. This law was passed only a year after the Nationalist Chinese Party formed. So I seriously discount that the KMT tried to manuver us towards war with Japan. Heck, according to numerous sources from well before the book quoted; talked about how Asiatic Fleet Commander Rear Admiral Thomas Hart was already talking with the the British as early as late 1940 and early 1941 on plans in case war with Japan would start. Hart was hoping to use Singapore as a planned refit base for any fleet units that came from the Atlantic to him or even a bug out place if the PI became unteniable. Add in he was also trying to coordinate plans of actions that the British would want to do with thier fleet units in Singapore and India. Most everyone in the Far East could see a potential conflict and for the Americans it was hopes that the Rainbow/War Plan Orange would hold together long enough to save the PI or at least allow for a quick recovery of same. As for the British they expected that Singapore would be able to hold out long enough for the Fleet and Army to come from India to same the British Far East. No one in either DC, 10 Downing, Cavitie, Singapore, or even the DEI expected any of these places to have fallen as fast or as quickly as they did.

Even more so if you read Tuchman's book aboiut Stilwell and the Chinese experience with America, you can read about how the KMT was more divided then any of the typical European courts at the time of knights. Various warlords and other folks were trying to make angles and plays to become the big dog to either be next to or replaced the Generalissmo. So I really can't see how the KMT could have manuvered the US into war with Japan when there was plenty of other background well before the KMT even exsisted .



Shennnigans it isn't - but I do agree Tuchman's treatment is very revealing about ROC politics, divisions and policies. I find her presentation important confirmation Yauli Sun is on the right track - at so many points do they agree. But her treatment isn't nearly as based on archival materials - not yet available - as his is. To assume you understand what happened and ignore the actual archival material is a mistake.


"Actual archival material" that is "not yet available"???? That is the kind of crap the wackiest of conspiracy theories are composed of.

(in reply to el cid again)
Post #: 21
RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/4/2012 5:25:44 PM   
JWE

 

Posts: 6580
Joined: 7/19/2005
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs
"Actual archival material" that is "not yet available"???? That is the kind of crap the wackiest of conspiracy theories are composed of.

That is the fundamental premise of all sensationalism. "Secret" stuff, that only "I" know..."

In the world of historical journalism, there is no such thing as "unavailable archival materials". When things become available, they become available to the entire world community at the same time. The scope and extent of peer review (for legitimate historical claims) is quite significant. The absence of specific cited sources (book, chapter, verse, and page) means the claim is canard. A reference to secret unavailable archival materials sources means the claim is a bogus fraud.

So if you see something that references that kind of fewmets, or read something from people who are unwilling (unable) to cite a single source but rather vomit another 1000 words that say nothing, I refer you to Erich Anton Paul von Däniken. It's not worth even answering this kind of nonsense. All it does is generate more text that wastes space, and depletes the charge of another trillion innocent electrons.

_____________________________


(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 22
RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/4/2012 6:30:10 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 24378
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JWE

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs
"Actual archival material" that is "not yet available"???? That is the kind of crap the wackiest of conspiracy theories are composed of.

That is the fundamental premise of all sensationalism. "Secret" stuff, that only "I" know..."

In the world of historical journalism, there is no such thing as "unavailable archival materials". When things become available, they become available to the entire world community at the same time. The scope and extent of peer review (for legitimate historical claims) is quite significant. The absence of specific cited sources (book, chapter, verse, and page) means the claim is canard. A reference to secret unavailable archival materials sources means the claim is a bogus fraud.

So if you see something that references that kind of fewmets, or read something from people who are unwilling (unable) to cite a single source but rather vomit another 1000 words that say nothing, I refer you to Erich Anton Paul von Däniken. It's not worth even answering this kind of nonsense. All it does is generate more text that wastes space, and depletes the charge of another trillion innocent electrons.

You bet! I just wanted to point that out for those innocents who might have been distracted by all the hand-waving bovine scatology.

(in reply to JWE)
Post #: 23
RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/10/2012 4:36:50 AM   
dwg

 

Posts: 319
Joined: 1/22/2008
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: el cid again
WE knew enough to delay delivery of the message - which is a kind of political slight of hand. But in war, all is fair


You're missing the point, that you're not being sceptical enough in reporting these things. As others have pointed out, it is an old story, long since debunked, and the pieces you quoted themselves include sufficient context for pretty much any regular here to recognise that they were grinding a clear revisionist axe, i.e. the attempt to portray the declaration of war as a warning, not an excuse. And once you see that revisionism, you essentially have to throw out anything in the article not explicitly confirmed by reliable sources.

quote:

During WWII we believed the "scrambled" phone calls between FDR and Churchill were "secure" because it was "virtually impossible" to unscramble them. But the Transatlantic Cable ended in occupied Holland. German Naval Intel had a real time unscrambler on that end, and every single call was understood and converted to a transcript as it occurred.


And there you go again, not being sufficiently sceptical. 30 seconds with Google will give you this: http://www.americanheritage.com/content/churchill-roosevelt-forgeries (and also http://www.ihr.org/jhr/v20/v20n2p40_Douglas.html ) Which point out that though there are major elements of truth to the story you report, it includes very significant errors (even better, it's an article about the need to be sceptical). The number one error here is that we aren't dealing with submarine cable, the Atlantic circuits were telegraph only until 1956 (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Submarine_communications_cable#Transatlantic_telephony) , we're actually dealing with radio-telephony. Problem number 2 is that the RN cut the German cables as one of the first acts of the war. Problem number 3, the Germans only managed occasional intercepts. Problem number 4, while there is some legitimate Germany Army archive data on the interception, several books ('Gestapo Chief' and 'Deceit at Pearl Harbour') have been built around the forgeries discussed in the American Heritage article. There's what seems like a reasonably plausible description of the decryption effort at http://chris-intel-corner.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/intercepted-conversations-bell-labs-3.html

What all this adds up to is a need to carefully evaluate the information you come across. I immediately knew there was a credibility issue with this as I was aware of the cable-cutting operations, but I would have suspected problems even without that due to the reliance on incompetence and the purported cable not being consistent with what I know of the technology (in both cases the idea that the US-UK cable terminated in Holland). And the allegation, even though it turns out to be largely factual, is still startling enough I would have checked before passing it on. (Unlike JWE I have a lot of time for the net as a research tool, particularly for those of us with limited budgets, but that's because I usually have enough background in the areas I'm looking at to recognise when something smells).

Now because your source on this has repeated parts of the story we know are factually incorrect, you need to reevaluate just how much trust to put in anything else it has told you. You haven't given us anything to suggest it's based on the forgeries rather than the real data, but something is clearly a problem, and enough of a problem you can't trust your source document alone and need to get confirmation before passing it along.

quote:

For various reasons, we hear more about our successes than we do about enemy ones. It hardly would sell a movie to glorify an Axis codebreaker, after all.


I can think of several movies revolving around German intel ops, for instance The Eagle Has Landed (let's assassinate Churchill), or The McKenzie Break (major PoW breakout by U-Boat officers), or Enigma (German spy at Bletchley Park). But if you're getting your information about codebreaking from movies then you really need to sit down and think through how much attention you give to the credibility of sources.

(in reply to el cid again)
Post #: 24
RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/10/2012 4:47:16 AM   
dwg

 

Posts: 319
Joined: 1/22/2008
Status: offline
quote:

Heck, according to numerous sources from well before the book quoted; talked about how Asiatic Fleet Commander Rear Admiral Thomas Hart was already talking with the the British as early as late 1940 and early 1941 on plans in case war with Japan would start. Hart was hoping to use Singapore as a planned refit base for any fleet units that came from the Atlantic to him or even a bug out place if the PI became unteniable.


I thought the entire Asiatic Fleet op-plan was 'bug-out to Singapore'? c.f. Marblehead's orders to Tarakan.

(in reply to YankeeAirRat)
Post #: 25
RE: Japanese archives: Japan broke US, UK, ROC and Can... - 5/10/2012 8:59:35 AM   
YankeeAirRat


Posts: 633
Joined: 6/22/2005
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: dwg

quote:

Heck, according to numerous sources from well before the book quoted; talked about how Asiatic Fleet Commander Rear Admiral Thomas Hart was already talking with the the British as early as late 1940 and early 1941 on plans in case war with Japan would start. Hart was hoping to use Singapore as a planned refit base for any fleet units that came from the Atlantic to him or even a bug out place if the PI became unteniable.


I thought the entire Asiatic Fleet op-plan was 'bug-out to Singapore'? c.f. Marblehead's orders to Tarakan.


I can't remember if it was reading Edward Miller's book on War Plan Orange or it is was a book about the Asiatic Fleet by either Tolley or Winslow that talked about how Hart had only a week before the 8th of December just returned from a meeting with the Royal Navy representatives in Hong Kong and Singapore about potentially using Singapore as a bug out station or as a station for elements of th Atlantic fleet to refit/refuel/rearm prior to going into combat around the PI like the Rainbow War Plans had called for.

_____________________________

Take my word for it. You never want to be involved in an “International Incident”.

(in reply to dwg)
Post #: 26
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