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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please)

 
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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/15/2012 6:17:07 AM   
Tarhunnas


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quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

This is more or less what happened on my current game (chronologically speaking). What I did in your similar situation was starting the evacuation of rifle divisions (in your case think about the three 3-units stacks south of the city). After all, once Pavlovo falls you are doomed. I had managed to evacuate almost a dozen rifle divisions before Marquo captured the city (and finally lost 20 of them)

The thing is his panzers might start leaving the area anyway.


If his panzers leave, they will be too late to affect things much somewhere else. It's only three turns until mud.

And if they leave, I don't think the Germans can take the city.

quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus
Well, unless you really plan to HOLD the city...


Evacuating? I do intend to hold the place! I am an optimist. I actually moved two fresh infantry divisions into the city this turn. I noticed that units in Leningrad refit very slowly once the land communications are broken. That BTW maight be a reason it is hard to hold Leningrad. Or else the replacement cycle might go from south to north? I do think there is a tendency for Soviet units in the north to recover more slowly than those in the south, not just in this game.

< Message edited by Tarhunnas -- 5/15/2012 6:26:59 AM >

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/15/2012 6:25:40 AM   
Tarhunnas


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quote:

ORIGINAL: hfarrish


Could BA have reduced TOEs on his infantry? That's really the only way I can think of to explain those CVs. Would be a very odd move but maybe he has some deep thinking going on.


I was thinking something like that too, and I have asked him. I actually checked the game settings just to see that I had not inadvertently set something wrong, but everything is at 100. We are playing the alternate VP GC, might it be something wrong with that? Becuase this seems very strange!

< Message edited by Tarhunnas -- 5/15/2012 6:26:39 AM >

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/15/2012 7:51:13 AM   
Flaviusx


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Refitting up north is indeed a pain in the neck, and by 1942 you're going to be doing what I call the attrition shuffle up there (and elsewhere, but especially here.) You will have to rotate units in and out of the front line every few weeks or they will gradually decay and lapse into unreadiness.

So far as the Leningrad garrison goes, your best bet is to ship out the worn out units and ship in fresh formations. But your transport capacity will not keep up with this...and in any case Bob is probably 2-3 turns out from isolating the city for good. It depends how lucky you get with reserves in Pavlovo, this can delay the crossing.

I would consider starting to evac now, you've got at least a half dozen divisions in the city (or rather, south and west of it) which are contributing nothing its defense and are hostages to fortune. It's going to be decided by the Neva crossing.

From the strategic standpoint you've achieved your main goals up here. Don't count on actually holding the city. He's got three clear weather turns to force the crossing, and if he can get across, then it's a done deal, even if the clean up lingers into snow turns. If you had fortified the port, then maybe you could pull it off, but I'm not seeing that in the screens.

So far as the German infantry goes, I have noticed his OB is running about 10% smaller than I'm used to seeing in terms of raw manpower. So figure he's short about 300k infantry. But I don't understand what's causing that, since you've been counterattacking his panzers in the main, the landsers ought to be mostly intact. Maybe his grinding is backfiring on him, all those deliberate attacks are wearing out the grunts. I've never seen them this blown out so early, though.

< Message edited by Flaviusx -- 5/15/2012 7:57:38 AM >


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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/15/2012 1:07:29 PM   
Tarhunnas


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Refitting up north is indeed a pain in the neck, and by 1942 you're going to be doing what I call the attrition shuffle up there (and elsewhere, but especially here.) You will have to rotate units in and out of the front line every few weeks or they will gradually decay and lapse into unreadiness.


Do you know if that is due to poor communications or some other effect? Like the replacement allocation going from south to north or something like that, so that by the time it gets to the north all replacements are used up? I have a feeling that units in the south with equally poor communications will refit better.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

So far as the German infantry goes, I have noticed his OB is running about 10% smaller than I'm used to seeing in terms of raw manpower. So figure he's short about 300k infantry. But I don't understand what's causing that, since you've been counterattacking his panzers in the main, the landsers ought to be mostly intact. Maybe his grinding is backfiring on him, all those deliberate attacks are wearing out the grunts. I've never seen them this blown out so early, though.


He says he has set their TOE lower than usual to save the replacements for the mobile units, and he seems quite confident and apparently there is a plan behind it.


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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/15/2012 2:12:37 PM   
Flaviusx


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Honestly not sure exactly why, but it's very bad up north in particular. It's an issue everywhere, mind you, since refits aren't guaranteed on the front line, but you really have to micromanage it up north. It's very irritating considering that this is mostly quiet after 1941, but requires ongoing and detailed attention. You can't just set it and forget it. It's very tedious and not very fun, almost to the point of making not want to play the game, frankly. I miss the old refit system that allowed you to do them on the front line. It was far easier to manage that.

If Bob has a plan, he has a plan, I'm just glad there's not a coding issue here, thought something goofy was going on.



< Message edited by Flaviusx -- 5/15/2012 2:14:01 PM >


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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/15/2012 2:50:32 PM   
TulliusDetritus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas

If his panzers leave, they will be too late to affect things much somewhere else. It's only three turns until mud.


Don't forget the snow turns To take the city he only needs a successful deliberate attack with his two 3-units stacks: he crosses the Neva that is (but of course you could kick him out one or two turns -as I did with Marquo's hordes). And that's the beginning of the end. I assume he's brought lots of combat engineers and artillery.

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/15/2012 5:09:02 PM   
Joel Billings


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What's the length of the supply path to Leningrad? Once it's tracing over the lake I assume it starts to add up. I assume you're not talking about units on the front line since they always get less replacements.

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/15/2012 5:18:46 PM   
Tarhunnas


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Joel Billings

What's the length of the supply path to Leningrad? Once it's tracing over the lake I assume it starts to add up. I assume you're not talking about units on the front line since they always get less replacements.


Yes you are correct, I am talking about units behind the front, like the one selected in the screenshot, which is fairly typical. They generally seem to have supply MP in the low teens and range 0 or 1.






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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/15/2012 6:41:05 PM   
hfarrish

 

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Is it possible to show defensive CVs rather than movement? For the Sovs it seems generally to be a much more helpful metric (at least in my opinion).

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/15/2012 7:12:31 PM   
Tarhunnas


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This is an overview of the front before Soviet moves turn 15. Unfortunately, BigAnorak has some RL issues, so we will have to put this game on indefinite hold. I will post some closeups of the front below.




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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/15/2012 7:13:38 PM   
Tarhunnas


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Here is a shot showing the broad attack frontage that the Germans have been using the last turns.




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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/15/2012 7:17:02 PM   
Tarhunnas


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A closeup of the Leningrad area. He did cross the river, and Flaviusx was right, I should have fortified that port! Just a matter of time now for the Leningrad garrison, but I belive it served its strategic purpose. All shots before Soviet moves.




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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/15/2012 7:22:07 PM   
Tarhunnas


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The Moscow area. Look at the CVs of the German infantry! I am feeling doubtful about the utility of the enemy TOE settings/plan/strategy. I will be able to get multiple pushbacks. They will cost me, but they will also give me those wins that I need for guards status. Like vampires, the Soviet infantry divisions need the blood of Fascist soldiers to turn red themselves. (ok, maybe I overstretched my poetic license there... but you get my meaning).





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< Message edited by Tarhunnas -- 5/15/2012 7:23:12 PM >

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/15/2012 7:25:30 PM   
Tarhunnas


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The Poltava area. Some of the panzers in PG1 are in a sorry state. Not sure I will be able to free my surrounded units there, but they fought bravely.




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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/15/2012 7:27:21 PM   
Tarhunnas


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Losses at the beginning of Soviet turn 15.




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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/15/2012 7:29:00 PM   
Tarhunnas


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And OOB.




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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/15/2012 7:31:42 PM   
Tarhunnas


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I have invited my opponent to comment on the AAR, as we are putting the game on hold anyway.

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/15/2012 7:42:13 PM   
Troy6677

 

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Interesting AAR as always Tarhunnas. My current game is a the same point as yours and my front line (as the Axis) is almost exactly the same with the notable exception that I will not capture Leningrad. Curious about the losses for both sides? Can you share a screenshot?

Thanks.

Mark

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/15/2012 7:48:47 PM   
Tarhunnas


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mvdh1

Interesting AAR as always Tarhunnas. My current game is a the same point as yours and my front line (as the Axis) is almost exactly the same with the notable exception that I will not capture Leningrad. Curious about the losses for both sides? Can you share a screenshot?

Thanks.

Mark


Thanks! See above for losses.

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/16/2012 2:08:12 AM   
timmyab

 

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Those German three and four CV units out in the open have got "whack me" written all over them.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
I miss the old refit system that allowed you to do them on the front line. It was far easier to manage that.

I think front line units should be able to refit, but maybe to a lesser extent than rear units.Perhaps 50% would be a good compromise.


< Message edited by timmyab -- 5/16/2012 2:09:25 AM >

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/16/2012 4:50:43 AM   
bigbaba


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you are in a great position comrade.:)

i mean 2 turns to go and he is'nt even close to the krim or D/Z area!

that smells like a good blizzard phase for you.:)

so feed your horses and you will get him back to the odessa region in the winter.:)

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/16/2012 5:50:31 AM   
Tarhunnas


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quote:

ORIGINAL: bigbaba

you are in a great position comrade.:)

i mean 2 turns to go and he is'nt even close to the krim or D/Z area!

that smells like a good blizzard phase for you.:)

so feed your horses and you will get him back to the odessa region in the winter.:)



Yes, I am/was confident, but as I said in a post above, unfortunately this game has been put on indefinite hold due to RL issues.

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR (no BigAnorak please) - 5/16/2012 9:24:46 AM   
janh

 

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Bummer. So far it looked great, and I was about to be convinced that fighting forward is an option without mulling and the big Lvov trick, and one that even might be on par with retreating.

It seems that BigA concentrated only on Leningrad and Moscow, so he will get at least the former by October. In turn he lacked the extra Armor to grab the Donez lowlands and Rostov. If possible, I would now be planning counterattacks around lake Ilmen, esp. near Novgorod and hope to create danger spots that will require the detachment of mobile units to clear, just as the Soviets did back in time. That seemed to work well, although now it is too late for Leningrad. He still got in there relative easily, although this may be just right given the Germans never truly attempted it beyond the initial assaults that actually succeeded in early September.

The area around Orel looks very worrying, though. PzGr1. fought hard and it being depleted is hopefully a good sign that BigA will have to choose, and he probably will go for Moscow as the south would be ideal tank country for the next summer.

Hope you guys will pick it up again!

< Message edited by janh -- 5/16/2012 9:35:26 AM >

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