ORIGINAL: Deserted Fox
I would have thought that the WiTP December 8 start would provide the obvious answer to this problem. Start the game on 23 June 1941 with the historical soviet losses on the ground already applied. Then there is no need for a complex set of calculations that attempt to replicate an anomaly - just abstract it.
This solution would make a lot of folks unhappy. They actually like to micromanage the Luftwaffe strikes and run up the score, it is practically its own minigame. (I'm one of these people who considers the whole air war a bother and am not fond of micromanaging it, but tastes vary.)
I like to play the Russians but will try the Germans soon against a friend. My biggest headache is having to micro airfield attacks first turn.
I'm not suggesting that the existing 22 June start be dispensed with - just that an optional June 23 start, for those whose tastes go that way, could be added. Exactly like WiTP.
Pavel - this would only affect the air war. Ground combat would commence on 23 June (or better still, at 0900 on 22 June AFTER the airfield strikes) and would be treated exactly as it is now. Luftwaffe capabilities would be reduced on turn one to account for the airfield strikes having gone in.
No major research should be needed. To address the views of different players on levels of Soviet AC losses during the first week, an option box could be added that allows the player to select 'high', 'historical' or 'low', with 'historical' being based on a named source, such as Glantz etc. In MP, this setting would need to be agreed between the players as with other settings such as weather. The selection would affect the percentage of LW sorties used prior to the start of the game.
WitE2 tester, WitW, WitP, CMMO, CM2, GTOS, GTMF, WP & WPP, TOAW4, BA2