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Is skill check on promotion really random?

 
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Is skill check on promotion really random? - 10/24/2011 7:35:29 PM   
Mike13z50


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It's the last mud turn in June 42, and I'm reorganizing my army in preperation for the summer offensive. I've got 400+ ap and decided to upgrade my Infantry Korps commanders. So I updated my spread sheet with all my current commanders and also update the list of unassigned generals with a 7+ infantry rating. I use a formula for Infantry/Rifle commanders of 3*(Inf)+2*(Init+Moral+Admin)+pol+armor to select commanders, I don't like the algorithm the ai uses to suggest replacements.

After the third or fourth guy dropped his Infantry rating from a 7 to a 6 on promotion I got fed up. Back at the beginning of the game I'd tried to game the system by reloading saves when promoting Balck (gamey I know, but my favorite Pnz Gen). Always the same result, he dropped two skill points (Morale and Init I think). So I knew rerolling was not only cheating, but inneffective (playing first GC vs AI btw).

But I wanted my sevens in charge instead of sixes. So I reloaded a save game and put every general with a 7 infantry in charge one after another and recorded their new numbers. I had to reload once to continue the list after I ran out of AP. Then I did a final reload and went through and replaced 12-15 of my worse commanders, and the replacements had exactly the numbers generated in my test run. So I was convinced there was nothing random about the check on promotion as per rule 11.4.3.5.

11.4.3.5. Leader Promotion Skill Rating Reduction Check
For Corps and Army headquarters units, the leader will be automatically promoted if selected. If promoted this way, the leader must make a check for each skill rating to see if it drops one point.

Then I come to work and while talking about it with a collegue he pointed out that it could be random, but the entire table of values upon promotion could be generated at game start. In otherwords Balck will always drop those two points in this game, but in a new game he might not. Does anyone know if this is the way it works. Easy enought to test, I'll try it when I get home.
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RE: Is skill check on promotion really random? - 10/24/2011 7:45:53 PM   
ComradeP

 

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Theoretically, it's possible that the skill reduction chance doesn't reset until you close the game.

Skill increases are random, so it would be peculiar if downgrades are not, regardless of how many time you reload a save. Maybe what skill is reduced is reset each turn, that would also be a possibility.

Several testers, myself including, are seriously in favour of allowing Generalmajors to lead corps, as the current leader system gives the Soviets a significant advantage. They can use their lowest level leaders for armies, whilst the Axis can't even assign their lowest level leaders to corps without a skill reduction.

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RE: Is skill check on promotion really random? - 10/24/2011 8:09:09 PM   
Balou


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Is this random thing applied evenly to all skills ? Sometimes I change leaders before I start with my winter lines to - hopefully - speed up digging (admin value, see rule book).

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RE: Is skill check on promotion really random? - 10/24/2011 8:46:16 PM   
Mike13z50


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I've seen everything except air and naval get reduced, of course those were already 1.

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RE: Is skill check on promotion really random? - 10/24/2011 11:49:32 PM   
entwood

 

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Glad you made this post OP.  I ran into the same thing with "Pre-Rolled numbers" and then, is there is a random seed game to game or the same 'random' numbers exist game-to-game!

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RE: Is skill check on promotion really random? - 10/25/2011 5:14:19 PM   
Mike13z50


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

Theoretically, it's possible that the skill reduction chance doesn't reset until you close the game.


So two things to test.

Does it reset when you start a new game or does it reset when you start the game engine.

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RE: Is skill check on promotion really random? - 10/25/2011 5:59:17 PM   
gingerbread


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I think that restarting does not matter. I have had the AI run the first Axis turn at least 10 times, and invariably, the 201st Airborne Brigade starts with a morale of 31.The formula used is 30 and adding Rnd(24), so it is a 1 in 24 chance for it to have 31.

Conclusion: the same sequence of die rolls is used every time. We need a more random randomness.

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RE: Is skill check on promotion really random? - 10/25/2011 6:45:11 PM   
Mike13z50


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quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

I think that restarting does not matter. I have had the AI run the first Axis turn at least 10 times, and invariably, the 201st Airborne Brigade starts with a morale of 31.The formula used is 30 and adding Rnd(24), so it is a 1 in 24 chance for it to have 31.

Conclusion: the same sequence of die rolls is used every time. We need a more random randomness.


Is the 201s AB a personal favorite? Just curious.

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RE: Is skill check on promotion really random? - 10/25/2011 7:17:34 PM   
gingerbread


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I looked for a unit with 31 morale to track when I began the trials. Easy to find on the map and not usually attacked by the AI so that aspect of everything-else-being-equal covered.

Nothing else.

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RE: Is skill check on promotion really random? - 10/25/2011 7:48:04 PM   
traemyn

 

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I noticed a similar thing when starting the GC. You'll see some randomness in the starting defensive values of the Soviet units on the border (should be Detection lv 10 right?). No matter how many times you restart the GC they seem to stay the same unless you restart the game client, which is fine imo.

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RE: Is skill check on promotion really random? - 10/26/2011 5:41:26 AM   
Jeffrey H.


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quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

I think that restarting does not matter. I have had the AI run the first Axis turn at least 10 times, and invariably, the 201st Airborne Brigade starts with a morale of 31.The formula used is 30 and adding Rnd(24), so it is a 1 in 24 chance for it to have 31.

Conclusion: the same sequence of die rolls is used every time. We need a more random randomness.



That sounds very much like a failure to reset the seed of the random number. The seed should be reset each time the random # routine is called.



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RE: Is skill check on promotion really random? - 10/26/2011 6:17:00 AM   
JAMiAM

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jeffrey H.


quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

I think that restarting does not matter. I have had the AI run the first Axis turn at least 10 times, and invariably, the 201st Airborne Brigade starts with a morale of 31.The formula used is 30 and adding Rnd(24), so it is a 1 in 24 chance for it to have 31.

Conclusion: the same sequence of die rolls is used every time. We need a more random randomness.



That sounds very much like a failure to reset the seed of the random number. The seed should be reset each time the random # routine is called.



Not necessarily. It really depends on how many times it's called upon and within what time frame. If you have a situation like a battle where hundreds of calculations are occurring within a second, then resetting the seed after each calculation will essentially give you a constant number result if the seed is generated by a time stamp.

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RE: Is skill check on promotion really random? - 10/26/2011 7:21:22 AM   
herwin

 

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The seed should be reset between games, but you don't want a player in a PBEM replaying a turn over and over to get specific results.

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RE: Is skill check on promotion really random? - 10/26/2011 5:53:01 PM   
Jeffrey H.


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JAMiAM


quote:

ORIGINAL: Jeffrey H.


quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

I think that restarting does not matter. I have had the AI run the first Axis turn at least 10 times, and invariably, the 201st Airborne Brigade starts with a morale of 31.The formula used is 30 and adding Rnd(24), so it is a 1 in 24 chance for it to have 31.

Conclusion: the same sequence of die rolls is used every time. We need a more random randomness.



That sounds very much like a failure to reset the seed of the random number. The seed should be reset each time the random # routine is called.



Not necessarily. It really depends on how many times it's called upon and within what time frame. If you have a situation like a battle where hundreds of calculations are occurring within a second, then resetting the seed after each calculation will essentially give you a constant number result if the seed is generated by a time stamp.


I see your point but I believe the 'sysclock' and in particular the last few digits of a return call to the sysclock is never the same between any two calls.



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RE: Is skill check on promotion really random? - 10/26/2011 11:29:28 PM   
entwood

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: herwin

The seed should be reset between games, but you don't want a player in a PBEM replaying a turn over and over to get specific results.


So what actually happens? The observations are that the same numbers are repeated when there should be randomness. I think it's a bug and not WAD. It is one more thing that can be taken advantage of during gameplay, and I, for one, am keen on getting rid of things that should not be known ahead of time.

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Post #: 15
RE: Is skill check on promotion really random? - 10/27/2011 2:50:07 AM   
Jeffrey H.


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Posted it in tech supp't.

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RE: Is skill check on promotion really random? - 10/27/2011 11:33:28 AM   
Helpless


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Game is using generated random numbers within the save. Reloading the save and running the same sequence should have similar result. This is desired protection against multiple reload and replay.

Scenario by itself is the same kind of save which has some generated randoms when it was first created. Personally I see no problem to seed new randoms once you load new scenario - it can be easily done... unless there could some objections from the persons who designed and implemented current system (will ask).

In any case, since numbers are updating on regular basis when you play the game, all this has very short term effect.

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Post #: 17
RE: Is skill check on promotion really random? - 10/27/2011 9:14:39 PM   
entwood

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Helpless

Game is using generated random numbers within the save. Reloading the save and running the same sequence should have similar result. This is desired protection against multiple reload and replay.

Scenario by itself is the same kind of save which has some generated randoms when it was first created. Personally I see no problem to seed new randoms once you load new scenario - it can be easily done... unless there could some objections from the persons who designed and implemented current system (will ask).

In any case, since numbers are updating on regular basis when you play the game, all this has very short term effect.

quote:

Personally I see no problem to seed new randoms once you load new scenario - it can be easily done... unless there could some objections from the persons who designed and implemented current system (will ask).



Thank you, please ask or what-have-you. It may seem like a small matter, but I feel there is way to much scripted, 'bot', and gambit play as it is. More randomness and unpredictability should be very good for the game and seems to be what is supposed to be happen ; "the rolling of dice".

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Post #: 18
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