Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I do something like Wirraway Ace since I find it annoying and troublesome that the Japanese can compete on any terms whatsoever. I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself. The resulting number is then implemented from this table:

1. Japanese player realizes he is in over his head on turn one and agrees to surrender.
2. Play John III and he agrees that no Japanese ship had a captain capable enough to take her out of the Sea of Japan.
3. Play Miller and he agrees to pose in his BVDs with Lady Gaga.
4. Play Chez Da Jes, implement Fortress Palembang, and he agrees that Japan cannot use ships to transport any fuel from any port more than three hexes from Tokyo.
5. Play Q-Ball and lull him into an acute state of boredom by withdrawing all ships, aircraft and ground units to Capetown until June 15, 1944. Accept his withdrawal from the game by January 1, 1943.
6. Play Panzerjaeger Hortlund, pretend that I am Nemo, and invade Hokkaido with the entire Australian OOB on February 28, 1942.
7. Play Poultry Lad and pretend that I am left-leaning in my politics.
8. Play Bullwinkle and pretend that I am right-leaning in my politics.
9. Play Cap Mandrake under agreement that he cannot say anything about women and their alluring, lusty, promiscuous tendencies.
10. Play Cribtop on condition that no lawyer terms shall be used.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I do something like Wirraway Ace since I find it annoying and troublesome that the Japanese can compete on any terms whatsoever. I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself. The resulting number is then implemented from this table:

1. Japanese player realizes he is in over his head on turn one and agrees to surrender.
2. Play John III and he agrees that no Japanese ship had a captain capable enough to take her out of the Sea of Japan.
3. Play Miller and he agrees to pose in his BVDs with Lady Gaga.
4. Play Chez Da Jes, implement Fortress Palembang, and he agrees that Japan cannot use ships to transport any fuel from any port more than three hexes from Tokyo.
5. Play Q-Ball and lull him into an acute state of boredom by withdrawing all ships, aircraft and ground units to Capetown until June 15, 1944. Accept his withdrawal from the game by January 1, 1943.
6. Play Panzerjaeger Hortlund, pretend that I am Nemo, and invade Hokkaido with the entire Australian OOB on February 28, 1942.
7. Play Poultry Lad and pretend that I am left-leaning in my politics.
8. Play Bullwinkle and pretend that I am right-leaning in my politics.
9. Play Cap Mandrake under agreement that he cannot say anything about women and their alluring, lusty, promiscuous tendencies.
10. Play Cribtop on condition that no lawyer terms shall be used.

So...you always do one of the bolded options? Seems a shame to limit yourself with so many other great ones on that table!

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I do something like Wirraway Ace since I find it annoying and troublesome that the Japanese can compete on any terms whatsoever. I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself. The resulting number is then implemented from this table:

1. Japanese player realizes he is in over his head on turn one and agrees to surrender.
2. Play John III and he agrees that no Japanese ship had a captain capable enough to take her out of the Sea of Japan.
3. Play Miller and he agrees to pose in his BVDs with Lady Gaga.
4. Play Chez Da Jes, implement Fortress Palembang, and he agrees that Japan cannot use ships to transport any fuel from any port more than three hexes from Tokyo.
5. Play Q-Ball and lull him into an acute state of boredom by withdrawing all ships, aircraft and ground units to Capetown until June 15, 1944. Accept his withdrawal from the game by January 1, 1943.
6. Play Panzerjaeger Hortlund, pretend that I am Nemo, and invade Hokkaido with the entire Australian OOB on February 28, 1942.
7. Play Poultry Lad and pretend that I am left-leaning in my politics.
8. Play Bullwinkle and pretend that I am right-leaning in my politics.
9. Play Cap Mandrake under agreement that he cannot say anything about women and their alluring, lusty, promiscuous tendencies.
10. Play Cribtop on condition that no lawyer terms shall be used.

So...you always do one of the bolded options? Seems a shame to limit yourself with so many other great ones on that table!

There's always a math geek . . .

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wirraway_Ace

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I do something like Wirraway Ace since I find it annoying and troublesome that the Japanese can compete on any terms whatsoever. I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself. The resulting number is then implemented from this table:

1. Japanese player realizes he is in over his head on turn one and agrees to surrender.
2. Play John III and he agrees that no Japanese ship had a captain capable enough to take her out of the Sea of Japan.
3. Play Miller and he agrees to pose in his BVDs with Lady Gaga.
4. Play Chez Da Jes, implement Fortress Palembang, and he agrees that Japan cannot use ships to transport any fuel from any port more than three hexes from Tokyo.
5. Play Q-Ball and lull him into an acute state of boredom by withdrawing all ships, aircraft and ground units to Capetown until June 15, 1944. Accept his withdrawal from the game by January 1, 1943.
6. Play Panzerjaeger Hortlund, pretend that I am Nemo, and invade Hokkaido with the entire Australian OOB on February 28, 1942.
7. Play Poultry Lad and pretend that I am left-leaning in my politics.
8. Play Bullwinkle and pretend that I am right-leaning in my politics.
9. Play Cap Mandrake under agreement that he cannot say anything about women and their alluring, lusty, promiscuous tendencies.
10. Play Cribtop on condition that no lawyer terms shall be used.

So...you always do one of the bolded options? Seems a shame to limit yourself with so many other great ones on that table!

There's always a math geek . . .

If I read the instructions correctly, Canoerebel only does one of those three options less than a third of the time.

quote:

He should be doing one of them 38.5875% of the time.

quote:

ORIGINAL: erstad

quote:

He should be doing one of them 38.5875% of the time.

Being that I spend a large fraction of my life playing with numbers...

Canoe said
I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself.

Assuming the antecedent for "itself" is the "largest number divisible by three" (as opposed to the squared number), the squaring and dividing is an identity function. Thus, he is basically taking the largest number divisible by three.

To restrain Mandrake from discussing lusty women, he must roll at least one nine, and no multiples of three larger than 9. For exactly one 9, the probability is
P(1 nines, no large x3) = 3[combinations] * 1/20 [p of a 9] * (16/20)^2 [p of the other two rolls being not a 9, 12, 15, or 18] = 0.096
Likewise,
P(2 nines, no larger x3)= 3 * (1/20)^2 * 16/20 = 0.006
P(3 nines, no larger x3) = 1 * (1/20)^3 = 0.000 (rounding)
So he plays Mandrake 10.2% of the time.

Without going through the rest of the math, one can see by inspection that the probability of invading Hokkaido (option 6) or seeing miller in his BVDs (option 3) has to be smaller than this probability. The first two terms stay the same, but the 16/20 factor for "a different number which is a (non-multiple of 3) (inclusive-or) (is smaller)) decreases. Therefore, the probability of (any of these options) is going to be less than 3*10.2%, i.e., less than 30.6%.

So I believe Wirraway_Ace is correct in saying that Canoerebel does one of these options less than a third of the time, with all the usual caveats (Canoerebel is telling the truth, the die is fair, etc.). Although I acknowledge some possibility of error. I showed you mine, now you show me yours

quote:

ORIGINAL: erstad

quote:

He should be doing one of them 38.5875% of the time.

Being that I spend a large fraction of my life playing with numbers...

Canoe said
I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself.

Assuming the antecedent for "itself" is the "largest number divisible by three" (as opposed to the squared number), the squaring and dividing is an identity function. Thus, he is basically taking the largest number divisible by three.

To restrain Mandrake from discussing lusty women, he must roll at least one nine, and no multiples of three larger than 9. For exactly one 9, the probability is
P(1 nines, no large x3) = 3[combinations] * 1/20 [p of a 9] * (16/20)^2 [p of the other two rolls being not a 9, 12, 15, or 18] = 0.096
Likewise,
P(2 nines, no larger x3)= 3 * (1/20)^2 * 16/20 = 0.006
P(3 nines, no larger x3) = 1 * (1/20)^3 = 0.000 (rounding)
So he plays Mandrake 10.2% of the time.

Without going through the rest of the math, one can see by inspection that the probability of invading Hokkaido (option 6) or seeing miller in his BVDs (option 3) has to be smaller than this probability. The first two terms stay the same, but the 16/20 factor for "a different number which is a (non-multiple of 3) (inclusive-or) (is smaller)) decreases. Therefore, the probability of (any of these options) is going to be less than 3*10.2%, i.e., less than 30.6%.

So I believe Wirraway_Ace is correct in saying that Canoerebel does one of these options less than a third of the time, with all the usual caveats (Canoerebel is telling the truth, the die is fair, etc.). Although I acknowledge some possibility of error. I showed you mine, now you show me yours

quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

I have not seen the discussion on the variation of scenario's and home rules. I might propose that the Moose's knife fight game scenario #2 is a much different strategy than one with the stardard homes rules to try and fix WitP. [No 4E's below 10,000 .. or the greyjpy game of 20,000, no 4E ground attacks etc ..] Then there is scenario #1 where the Boise is an interesting intervention and the Allies find the inevitable hole early ...

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: erstad

quote:

He should be doing one of them 38.5875% of the time.

Being that I spend a large fraction of my life playing with numbers...

Canoe said
I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself.

Assuming the antecedent for "itself" is the "largest number divisible by three" (as opposed to the squared number), the squaring and dividing is an identity function. Thus, he is basically taking the largest number divisible by three.

To restrain Mandrake from discussing lusty women, he must roll at least one nine, and no multiples of three larger than 9. For exactly one 9, the probability is
P(1 nines, no large x3) = 3[combinations] * 1/20 [p of a 9] * (16/20)^2 [p of the other two rolls being not a 9, 12, 15, or 18] = 0.096
Likewise,
P(2 nines, no larger x3)= 3 * (1/20)^2 * 16/20 = 0.006
P(3 nines, no larger x3) = 1 * (1/20)^3 = 0.000 (rounding)
So he plays Mandrake 10.2% of the time.

Without going through the rest of the math, one can see by inspection that the probability of invading Hokkaido (option 6) or seeing miller in his BVDs (option 3) has to be smaller than this probability. The first two terms stay the same, but the 16/20 factor for "a different number which is a (non-multiple of 3) (inclusive-or) (is smaller)) decreases. Therefore, the probability of (any of these options) is going to be less than 3*10.2%, i.e., less than 30.6%.

So I believe Wirraway_Ace is correct in saying that Canoerebel does one of these options less than a third of the time, with all the usual caveats (Canoerebel is telling the truth, the die is fair, etc.). Although I acknowledge some possibility of error. I showed you mine, now you show me yours

I didn't take into account any of the other results as only a roll of 3, 6, or 9 will give a valid result on his list. The probability that he rolls a 3, 6, or 9 on a 20-sided die is 3/20 or 15%. Therefore, he will not play any games 85% of the time on any given roll. However, since he rolls 3 times we need to evaluate .85^3, which is 61.4125% of the time. 1 - .614125 = .385875. I don't want to work out the individual probabilities, but shouldn't they all add up to that 38.5875%?

quote:

ORIGINAL: erstad

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: erstad

quote:

He should be doing one of them 38.5875% of the time.

Being that I spend a large fraction of my life playing with numbers...

Canoe said
I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself.

Assuming the antecedent for "itself" is the "largest number divisible by three" (as opposed to the squared number), the squaring and dividing is an identity function. Thus, he is basically taking the largest number divisible by three.

To restrain Mandrake from discussing lusty women, he must roll at least one nine, and no multiples of three larger than 9. For exactly one 9, the probability is
P(1 nines, no large x3) = 3[combinations] * 1/20 [p of a 9] * (16/20)^2 [p of the other two rolls being not a 9, 12, 15, or 18] = 0.096
Likewise,
P(2 nines, no larger x3)= 3 * (1/20)^2 * 16/20 = 0.006
P(3 nines, no larger x3) = 1 * (1/20)^3 = 0.000 (rounding)
So he plays Mandrake 10.2% of the time.

Without going through the rest of the math, one can see by inspection that the probability of invading Hokkaido (option 6) or seeing miller in his BVDs (option 3) has to be smaller than this probability. The first two terms stay the same, but the 16/20 factor for "a different number which is a (non-multiple of 3) (inclusive-or) (is smaller)) decreases. Therefore, the probability of (any of these options) is going to be less than 3*10.2%, i.e., less than 30.6%.

So I believe Wirraway_Ace is correct in saying that Canoerebel does one of these options less than a third of the time, with all the usual caveats (Canoerebel is telling the truth, the die is fair, etc.). Although I acknowledge some possibility of error. I showed you mine, now you show me yours

I didn't take into account any of the other results as only a roll of 3, 6, or 9 will give a valid result on his list. The probability that he rolls a 3, 6, or 9 on a 20-sided die is 3/20 or 15%. Therefore, he will not play any games 85% of the time on any given roll. However, since he rolls 3 times we need to evaluate .85^3, which is 61.4125% of the time. 1 - .614125 = .385875. I don't want to work out the individual probabilities, but shouldn't they all add up to that 38.5875%?

You would be correct if he used any 3, 6, or 9. However, at least as I understood the description, he uses the largest multiple of 3 he rolled. So if he rolled a 9, but then later rolled a 15, the 15 would be used and as there is no entry 15 he would apply not be a variant. So not all 3, 6, and 9 rolls will result in a variant, again to my understanding of the method that I'm quite certain Canoerebel rigorously applies to all his games.

quote:

This History major says CR misspoke., He meant a twenty-ONE-sided die. So, do it all again, please.

Show your work.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

No, I meant a 20-sided dice!

quote:

ORIGINAL: borner

is there a thread that gives more details on the "sir robin" approach?

quote:

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

As a dedicated "Sir Robin" follower , I need to chime in here. 1st of all , "Sir Robin" is more of a philosophy than a strategy. At least in AE. It's simply not possible to do the wholesale running that you did in WITP vanilla. The philosophy is more "preservation" than running. And to a large degree it's predicated on the principal that the more resources you save , and train up, and update, the sooner you can start back across the Pacific. One undisputable fact is that at the "turning points" of the Pacific war , the USN stopped then moved against the IJN (that is at Midway and Guadalcanal)with ships that were entirely pre-war builds. These are the ships that you will be using till late 1943, early 1944. So it stands to reason that the more you preserve , the sooner you train them and their crews up, the faster you update them, the sooner you can go on the offensive.

That is not to say that you should not strike if the IJN gives you an opportunity by doing something dumb. Obviously the IJN ships are better trained , and crewed than yours. But if you can catch him in an area that he doesn't have air superiority , and you have larger forces , then go for it.

I have a saying , that "The USA should fight to the very last Dutchman, Brit and Australian". Now I'm not saying I dislike these nations. I am saying 1) generally these ships can not be updated , which makes them "use 'em or lose 'em ships" due to future obsolescence. And 2) they are far more likely to fight to the death for their colonies. I can't imagine the USA will to sacrifice large quantities of ships and troops to defend someone else's colonies. (The Philippines yes. That's a US colony).

Troops generally can't be evacuated , nor can many air groups. Leave them in place , but concentrate them if you can. Always rebuild units if possible. Divisions are for fighting. Companies and Battalions are for policing colonies. Colonial policing ends on Dec 7th.

So what preservation means , is get your warships , in there scattered penny packets , where they are meat on the table , to some rear area where they can assemble into something capable of providing some form of self defense. Your ASW assets (except for some Brit,Dutch and Canadian assets) are pretty poor. Your CV air groups are a joke. And most of your USN ships have potential , but not till they have been re-fitted. Get them out of the front line. Get them out of danger. Untill they can be upgraded , then train them. Especially air groups.

USN fleet boats have tremendous possibilities. Unfortunately , they lack decent torpedoes. So you need to train them so that when the working fish show up , you have experienced crews. Mining missions are good, but you lack mines. So how to use them? While S-boats , Brit and Dutch boats hold the line (especially in shallow waters) the fleet boats can earn their keep in another way. Scouting lines. Every boat should be set out in a deep water , middle of the ocean , far from ASW air patrols scouting line. Don't use them near your bases, that part of the line can be filled in with YMSs , YP's , PC's and other naval patrol craft. Subs have range. Don't use a long range sub where a short ranged asset can work.

You really need to know where the IJN is. Especially the KB. If you can't track the KB , knowing where it isn't is almost as good. Build "fences" between your bases where the Japanese are not likely to invade. On those bases use your PA aircraft. Where you can , supplement them with Hudsons , B-17D's , LB-30's and even B-18s. Scouting is the absolute most important thing for the Allies. You must know where your enemy is so you can most efficiently use your few assets (and more importantly , SAFELY use them). The Japanese are very short on PA aircraft. And most players would much rather use the "Netties" on naval strike then patrol.

Build a fence, then operate your supply ships behind it. You can't fight the KB. You MUST completely avoid it. Keep your lifelines well back, where they can run the second the KB is spotted. And if his smaller units penetrate the fence , then you can set up an ambush (IF it's worth it).

Just a few points . I hope they might be useful.

quote:

ORIGINAL: littleike

How is the better way to evacuate a base and to destroy it if you want to retire your troops and leave nothing to the incoming enemy?
Is it possible?

quote:

ORIGINAL: rook749

quote:

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

As a dedicated "Sir Robin" follower , I need to chime in here. 1st of all , "Sir Robin" is more of a philosophy than a strategy. At least in AE. It's simply not possible to do the wholesale running that you did in WITP vanilla. The philosophy is more "preservation" than running. And to a large degree it's predicated on the principal that the more resources you save , and train up, and update, the sooner you can start back across the Pacific. One undisputable fact is that at the "turning points" of the Pacific war , the USN stopped then moved against the IJN (that is at Midway and Guadalcanal)with ships that were entirely pre-war builds. These are the ships that you will be using till late 1943, early 1944. So it stands to reason that the more you preserve , the sooner you train them and their crews up, the faster you update them, the sooner you can go on the offensive.

That is not to say that you should not strike if the IJN gives you an opportunity by doing something dumb. Obviously the IJN ships are better trained , and crewed than yours. But if you can catch him in an area that he doesn't have air superiority , and you have larger forces , then go for it.

I have a saying , that "The USA should fight to the very last Dutchman, Brit and Australian". Now I'm not saying I dislike these nations. I am saying 1) generally these ships can not be updated , which makes them "use 'em or lose 'em ships" due to future obsolescence. And 2) they are far more likely to fight to the death for their colonies. I can't imagine the USA will to sacrifice large quantities of ships and troops to defend someone else's colonies. (The Philippines yes. That's a US colony).

Troops generally can't be evacuated , nor can many air groups. Leave them in place , but concentrate them if you can. Always rebuild units if possible. Divisions are for fighting. Companies and Battalions are for policing colonies. Colonial policing ends on Dec 7th.

So what preservation means , is get your warships , in there scattered penny packets , where they are meat on the table , to some rear area where they can assemble into something capable of providing some form of self defense. Your ASW assets (except for some Brit,Dutch and Canadian assets) are pretty poor. Your CV air groups are a joke. And most of your USN ships have potential , but not till they have been re-fitted. Get them out of the front line. Get them out of danger. Untill they can be upgraded , then train them. Especially air groups.

USN fleet boats have tremendous possibilities. Unfortunately , they lack decent torpedoes. So you need to train them so that when the working fish show up , you have experienced crews. Mining missions are good, but you lack mines. So how to use them? While S-boats , Brit and Dutch boats hold the line (especially in shallow waters) the fleet boats can earn their keep in another way. Scouting lines. Every boat should be set out in a deep water , middle of the ocean , far from ASW air patrols scouting line. Don't use them near your bases, that part of the line can be filled in with YMSs , YP's , PC's and other naval patrol craft. Subs have range. Don't use a long range sub where a short ranged asset can work.

You really need to know where the IJN is. Especially the KB. If you can't track the KB , knowing where it isn't is almost as good. Build "fences" between your bases where the Japanese are not likely to invade. On those bases use your PA aircraft. Where you can , supplement them with Hudsons , B-17D's , LB-30's and even B-18s. Scouting is the absolute most important thing for the Allies. You must know where your enemy is so you can most efficiently use your few assets (and more importantly , SAFELY use them). The Japanese are very short on PA aircraft. And most players would much rather use the "Netties" on naval strike then patrol.

Build a fence, then operate your supply ships behind it. You can't fight the KB. You MUST completely avoid it. Keep your lifelines well back, where they can run the second the KB is spotted. And if his smaller units penetrate the fence , then you can set up an ambush (IF it's worth it).

Just a few points . I hope they might be useful.

Well laid out and reasoned, even if you fall into the more aggressive style of the allied play (as I do) nothing you are saying still can't apply.

quote:

ORIGINAL: littleike

How is the better way to evacuate a base and to destroy it if you want to retire your troops and leave nothing to the incoming enemy?
Is it possible?

quote:

ORIGINAL: littleike

Thanks Amoral and Steve for your guidelines!

So I can stop build or repair, but not destroy.

If it would be possible to destroy one own facilities (airstrips,factories, supply and oil stocks ) at least at some degree do you think that this feature could enhance or unbalance the game for the allied or japans player or both? ( After all for the ships at anchor in a captured port the game automatically scuttle them).