This is a good debate, and Bullwinkle does make some good point. A few thoughts:
1. The total Light Industry beyond the Trigger Line in India is exactly 500; not enough to launch offensive operations, but enough to keep 10 divisions from dropping dead of hunger. This assumes I keep KB posted without interruption for several months off Karachi. No, starving them out is impossible.
I have observed supply convoys transiting to Karachi, so pretty sure he's shipped some in already, while I had KB in the Bay of Bengal covering those landings.
2. Can I conquer the place? It may be remotely possible, IF I continue to commit troops, and IF I make sure KB is posted off Karachi after I cross the Trigger Line. However, 2-3 of those Divisions appear in Karachi IIRC, so he will get immediate reinforcement, not to mention a shot of the arm into the replacement pool. He pulled fragments for all those units I destroyed, which means they will rebuild much quicker after I cross the Trigger Line.
At this point, even if I use ships to land on the coast, it will take a minimum of 2 months with little resistance, because of the great travel distances to the interior.
3. Withdrawl isn't a big problem shipping-wise; despite the massive commitment to India, I am ahead in shipping fuel-resources to the Home Islands. No problems. Part of what helps is that it's a short trip to Singapore from India, compared to the Central Pacific.
Going for all of India is very risky. If it wasn't for that 6-Division trigger....why not? But giving the Allies 6 divisions wipes out all LCU gains and then some.
I can't comment on your strategic options, as I do read the other AAR. Except to say you're dividing your effort and poking the tiger on some of them. They don't seem to fit into a matrix, except to try to bring out the USN, and when has CR ever done that when he didn't have to?
It sounds like you're leaning one way in India, so I'll just say a couple more things and then shut up to watch the fun.
1. As you have no doubt pretty much turned off the fuel tap, and you know how much any Allied palyer guards his tankers, you are correct that LI is probably his only supply salvation. You can't stopper all raw material flows, so he'll have a bit. I assume the 500 is per day? I'm not a production guru. Looking at my own game, randomly, the 7th Indian Division at Akyab on Rest is demanding 728 Supplies on the Supplies Required line. I "think" that's monthly? Or weekly? Regardless, if LI is really 3500/week, he "may" be able to feed 10 divisions. But I'm proposing forcing them to fight, not sit. You control that, not him.
Also, his long, long retreat back from the coast will eat up supplies (see table in manual.) If he uses mostly rail it won't be a lot, but some.
Also, replacements only happen where there are 2x supplies, and cost supplies to activate devices. Getting a big device windfall from you crossing the line might be a mixed blessing if they suck down operating supply levels to reboot the units you've already crushed. Also, his chances of doing any of the mid-1942 TOE upgrades to the Indian army are slim to none.
If he fixes his troops, can he also work on forts? Especially as the levels go to 6 or higher, and costs are not linear with level gains.
I figured he was sneaking some stuff in from the Mideast, which is why my biggest WTF is why aren't you using your navy? You don't need the KB to stop convoys. Many DD TFs, subs, mines in Karachi, etc. You have to plug Karachi, or at least make him commit RN or USN capital ships to keep it open. If you can't/won't plug Karachi, then yes, don't go for the gold. Absolutely.
Bottom line, if some of the reenforcements auto-arrive in Karachi, and Karachi is blockaded by sea, and partly to the east (paratroops? armor spearhead?) all that does is suck down Karachi's supply stocks nearly instantly to activate the new guys and build their internal supply totals. Fort construction stops, and combat eats at the pile even more. You can add LBA to taste. When Karachi falls, all those new troops do is deliver VPs. But you have to do it quickly.
Then you go knock off Bataan, and those 70,000 POWs, and see where you are.
And if you want to bring out the USN, the BEST way IMO is to credibly threaten an auto-vic. There's really no other loss among those you list as possibilities that the Allied player can't ignore until he chooses to repond, and has overwhelming carrier power.
< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 9/30/2010 7:45:09 PM >