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RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/11/2011 10:42:53 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

According to a developer's posts clarifying the issue, the mandatory shock attack happens for any size 1 or 2 island (regardless of terrain), and for any atoll (regardless of size). Maybe wrong, but that's what the devs say.


I found the thread you were in with Big where that was discussed. That s what he said. I didn't believe it, so I just went and invaded Diego Garcia in my old LOD/Socotra testbed game. It is as you say. Atoll terrain type does trigger an automatic shock attack, even on islands bigger than 2.

And that is absolutely, irretrievably WRONG. Shock attacks should happen because trhe invader cannot avoid the defenders. This should be a function of island size, not geological formation type. I spent five months on DG. It's got a HUGE perimeter--well over 30 miles around the lagoon. Any spot in that 30 miles could take a landing. It's all flat beach, there are no mountains. You couldn't cover it all with ten divisions let alone the troop limits imposed by the island size code.

AE devs went to a lot of trouble to set stacking limits, and then fell on WITP's incorrect code sword that atolls are always small. Ain't true, and the game ain't right in this area. It's very, very incorrect.

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RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/11/2011 10:52:36 PM   
Cribtop


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My thought on TB was whether or not it was lightly garrisoned enough to take regardless of the atoll designation. I assume Q took it and manned it as most JFBs do, but I didn't recall CR mentioning it in the AAR and thus thought maybe Brad never got around to it.

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RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/11/2011 10:54:04 PM   
HMS Resolution


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I've been away for a while; did the master plan ever get unveiled?

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Post #: 1683
RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/11/2011 10:59:27 PM   
Canoerebel


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11/25/42

Bullwinkle: Thanks for once again serving as a crash test dummy. I appreciate your efforts to test the parameters of the game. Unfortunatley, so much has been said about this topic that I'm afraid I'll end up forgetting your "gospel" truth by the time I'm next ready to invade an island.

Wake Island: The Allies stood down to good effect. The Japanese bombardment didn't touch the Allies, but did this to the Japanese:

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 1036 troops, 55 guns, 2 vehicles, Assault Value = 25

Defending force 3635 troops, 136 guns, 55 vehicles, Assault Value = 128

Japanese ground losses:
116 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

What it Means: I believe the Japanese garrison is completely disrupted - the fact that every casualty was a "destroyed" suggests the defenders have no non-disabled troops left. The Allies are a little bit under 100% on supply. Disruption is down to around 25%, but I'm going to wait one more turn before a deliberate attack. I think the base would fall if it weren't for the four forts, but I'm not sure I can take it before I run out of supply. Either way, this is going to be very close. Why Brad isn't reinforcing is a mystery to me.

Counting the Cost: Next turn, I will itemize my losses at Wake. They are probably higher than I think - I'm guestimating roughly 30 xAK and a few other small ships. I'm kind of reluctant to look, because it seems like alot. It really wasn't, considering what was going on. Probably 75% of the losses came when I decided to risk my "naked" and unprotected xAKs when I realized I might have a chance to take the island after all.

Mini-KB: Hiyo and Junyo apparently backed off, missing a chance at the last two Allied ships in the area (an SC and an xAK, so it wasn't much). Brad was probably worried lest the Allied carriers be hanging around.

Oz: In my hurry to flip this turn, I forgot to check Daly Waters, but there weren't any attacks there, so I think Brad remains oblivious to the Allied presence in the hex.

India: The Allies will take vacant Madras tomorrow. USN divebombers from Jaffna sank a DMS and an xAK at Trincomalee. Chindit are going to hit Chittagong tomorrow - recon shows it is vacant, though I am somewhat skeptical. Two paratroop contingents will take vacant bases on the railroad east of Mangalore, opening up the line to that Allied occupied city. THe Allied armor has nearly finished off the IJA stack that retreated from Poona weeks ago. The sad remnants are in the jungle NE of Mangalore. Meanwhile, 48th Div. remains in the jungle south of Bombay. The first Allied attack will take place there the day after tomorrow.

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RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/11/2011 11:14:19 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

11/25/42

Bullwinkle: Thanks for once again serving as a crash test dummy. I appreciate your efforts to test the parameters of the game. Unfortunatley, so much has been said about this topic that I'm afraid I'll end up forgetting your "gospel" truth by the time I'm next ready to invade an island.


You could have knocked me over with a feather when I saw that a Very Large island with unlimited garrison capacity is treated the same way as a flyspeck with a 6000 limit simply because coral polyps formed it rather than volcanoes. I never, ever would have thought to check the terrain of a Very Large before targetting it.

Did I mention that this is WRONG?!!

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RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/12/2011 12:19:28 AM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

11/25/42

Wake Island: The Allies stood down to good effect. The Japanese bombardment didn't touch the Allies, but did this to the Japanese:

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 1036 troops, 55 guns, 2 vehicles, Assault Value = 25

Defending force 3635 troops, 136 guns, 55 vehicles, Assault Value = 128

Japanese ground losses:
116 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

What it Means: I believe the Japanese garrison is completely disrupted - the fact that every casualty was a "destroyed" suggests the defenders have no non-disabled troops left. The Allies are a little bit under 100% on supply. Disruption is down to around 25%, but I'm going to wait one more turn before a deliberate attack. I think the base would fall if it weren't for the four forts, but I'm not sure I can take it before I run out of supply. Either way, this is going to be very close. Why Brad isn't reinforcing is a mystery to me.



Recommend deliberate attacks with that force, no more shock attacks there. When your force is well enough rested and undisrupted you will be surprised how effective they are. And with the enemy state of disrepair you mention, shock attacks would just be damaging your own force and wasting your supplies.

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RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/12/2011 12:20:46 AM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

According to a developer's posts clarifying the issue, the mandatory shock attack happens for any size 1 or 2 island (regardless of terrain), and for any atoll (regardless of size). Maybe wrong, but that's what the devs say.


I found the thread you were in with Big where that was discussed. That s what he said. I didn't believe it, so I just went and invaded Diego Garcia in my old LOD/Socotra testbed game. It is as you say. Atoll terrain type does trigger an automatic shock attack, even on islands bigger than 2.

And that is absolutely, irretrievably WRONG. Shock attacks should happen because trhe invader cannot avoid the defenders. This should be a function of island size, not geological formation type. I spent five months on DG. It's got a HUGE perimeter--well over 30 miles around the lagoon. Any spot in that 30 miles could take a landing. It's all flat beach, there are no mountains. You couldn't cover it all with ten divisions let alone the troop limits imposed by the island size code.

AE devs went to a lot of trouble to set stacking limits, and then fell on WITP's incorrect code sword that atolls are always small. Ain't true, and the game ain't right in this area. It's very, very incorrect.


Sometime recently I saw a developer make an off-handed remark - maybe it was Andy in his AAR? dunno - agreeing with what you say. I take it that he lost the argument in developerland.

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Post #: 1687
RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/12/2011 2:40:06 PM   
Canoerebel


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11/26/42

Wake Island: Brad has finally come around at Wake Island, and I don't think I'll pull that inside straight after all. An IJN TF led by BB Hyuga bombarded the island, and he didn't have his troops engage in one of their suicidal bombardments that had weakened them considerably since D-Day. The following Allied deliberate attack failed miserably, and my troops are in bad shape. I need supply to have even a remote chance of taking the island, but I'm not going to hazard anything major at this point. Brad will be prepared. But I'll try slipping in some ships now and then. As noted a day or two ago, I accomplished two out of three objectives here, so I'm not disappointed. I also learned an important lesson about supply when attacking atolls....and came oh so close here.

India: 55th UK Bde. took Madras. A Chindit unit took Chittagong. Marines and Chindits took Calicut and Salem in the south. Recon shows that Colombo is lightly defended, so Brad isn't trying some "Fortress Ceylon" idea. I'll have to watch out the Japanese Navy when I land troops at Ceylon, but it looks like the Allies will hold this island by the end of the year. I had also thought the Japanese would make a stand in the cities leading to Akyab, but not so. Chindits will drop on a vacant Cox's Bazaar tomorrow. The Allies will be moving on Calcutta in less than a week. I don't think Japan will hold a single city in India by New Year's Eve, which is pretty remarkable since the high water mark at Indore, north of Bombay, was just a bit over two months ago.

The Island Offshore: I suspect Brad will have evacuated Male Island and Addu Atoll, but it wouldn't suprise me if he left a Naval Guard or something of the sort at Diego Garcia. I'll probably deal with the first two before the end of the year, assuming they are vacant, but Diego I'll have to think about a bit, partly because I need to consider how it might impact the Sumatra operation and suprise (I think I can take it without creating suspicion, but I need to think about it a bit).

Oz: I don't think Brad is watching Daly Waters. The Allies control the road hexsides leading in and out of the city. I have 340 AV there, with another 325 on the way and due in about a ten days. In the meantime, I'm going to use a small armored unit to take another hexside or two in an effort to leave the Japanese with only poor avenues of retreat that lead east rather than west.

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RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/12/2011 2:48:56 PM   
vettim89


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I don't think I would worry too much about tipping Brad off by taking DG back. I think most people would consider it just part of the natural progression of cleaning up that side of the map. In fact removing that thorn in your side would deny him the ability to put a patrol unit there to monitor comings and goings through the sea lanes

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Post #: 1689
RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/12/2011 2:52:40 PM   
ny59giants_MatrixForum


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Fast Transports - How are you in the number of AVDs?? They can carry supplies and you may need to try to get a few into Wake. If you have enough of the old "four stackers" converted over to APDs and can spare them, use them to take Addu Atoll. I was going to convert most of my Clemson Class DDs to DEs until I read a thread about their use as APDs. Thankfully, I will not make that mistake.

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Post #: 1690
RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/12/2011 3:03:16 PM   
Canoerebel


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Tim, I think you're right.

As part of this invasion, the Allies will have alot of India-campaign units (UK and Indian) prepped for various islands off the coast of Sumatra, the Nicobars, and the Andamans. I'm not sure I'll ever have enough ships to carry all the troops I want to use. This is especially so since I need alot of ships for all the feinting, deceptions, and secondary invasions that will take place elsewhere. But if all went pefectly (yeah, right....) the opereration would look something like this:

1. Feint towards NW Oz (Brad will be waiting for this move).
2. Feint towards the Kuriles (I hope he's wondering about this too).
3. Massive invasion of Sumatra including Cocos Island, Christmas Island (IO), and several islands just off Sumatra's south coast. Mostly Americans and Australians involved.
4. Invasion of Nicobars and Andamans (possibly to coincide with Sumatra or following a day or two later). Mostly British and Indians involved.
4. Secondary invasion in SoPac (perhaps in the Santa Cruz Islands, Luganville area, or New Guinea) - perhaps a week later
5. Secondary invasion in CenPac (perhaps in or near the Gilberts) - perhaps a week later.

In order to facilitate movement of LBA to new bases in Sumatra, I need to hold Ceylon, which is now nearly a certainty. In order to ramp up pressure in NW Oz, I am already moving towards the NW sector by land and plan to invade Exmouth in a few weeks. In order to create pressure around New Guinea, I'm building the airfields at Coen and Portland Roads. I will also drop a Marine paratroop unit on a vacant New Guinea city just prior to the Sumatra operations. In order to enhance the threat to NoPac, I've been building in the Kuriles since the start of the war, and just invaded Wake Island to focus Brad's attention on this region.

Most everything that has been done up to this date has been to directly or indirectly support the ultimate Allied objective of invading Sumatra in 1943. I just hope it works better than the Wake invasion has.



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 2/12/2011 3:06:29 PM >

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Post #: 1691
RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/12/2011 3:05:22 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants
Fast Transports - How are you in the number of AVDs?? They can carry supplies and you may need to try to get a few into Wake. If you have enough of the old "four stackers" converted over to APDs and can spare them, use them to take Addu Atoll. I was going to convert most of my Clemson Class DDs to DEs until I read a thread about their use as APDs. Thankfully, I will not make that mistake.


I'm good on these ships at the moment. Unlike my game with Miller, I didn't promptly set out and sink all my fast transports.

One large group was just used successfully in the Wake invasion. They are back at Pearl now.

I don't think I need fast transports to invade Male Island or Addu Atoll if they are empty or lightly garrisoned. I think I can use picket ships to prevent surprise, and land infantry via regular transport. Para-assault might be a possibilty for Male Island, though I'll need to check distances.

Thanks for the suggestion!

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Post #: 1692
RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/13/2011 1:37:58 AM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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11/27/42

Wake Island: All quiet there, though my Marine regiment looks awfully deplated. The CD unit and combat engineers are in good shape, but I don't think I have a chance here. Scattered small supply convoys are on the way, so we'll see. It's worth chancing three or four more xAK and xAKL.

Oz: No Japanese stirrings at Daly Waters. I'm pretty sure Brad hasn't noticed (it would be easy to overlook a sector of the map that was remote, had been event-free for nine months, and if you were distracted by WITE). I'm thining about proceeding with a snap invasion of Exmouth. This base is close to Allied territory, but fairly close to big IJ airfields at Port Headland and Carnavon. So I will use my carriers for cover. I would load at Albany, SE of Perth, and try to get in and out pronto.

Sumatra: The next USA Army division is aboard transports that just refueled at Tahiti and will arrive at Melbourne in about two weeks. I'm going to gather all of my major Sumatra-prepped army units there and "test load" them aboard troop transports to see just how much I can carry. I doubt I have anywhere enough to carry everything I want and to handle all the other stuff that will be going on. Early thinking is that D-Day will be around March 20, with the various diversion set to kick off around the 15th.

India: Chindits took vacant Cox's Bazaar today and will try to take vacant (apparently) Akyab tomorrow. I'm surprised Brad isn't making some kind of stand at Akyab. Divebombers from Jaffna sank I-156 and two xAKL at Colombo.



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Post #: 1693
RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/13/2011 2:09:55 AM   
Chickenboy


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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Sumatra: The next USA Army division is aboard transports that just refueled at Tahiti and will arrive at Melbourne in about two weeks. I'm going to gather all of my major Sumatra-prepped army units there and "test load" them aboard troop transports to see just how much I can carry. I doubt I have anywhere enough to carry everything I want and to handle all the other stuff that will be going on. Early thinking is that D-Day will be around March 20, with the various diversion set to kick off around the 15th.

Canoerebel,

Personally, I'm most interested in seeing how this op of yours goes off. For the record, I think that early 1943 is too early and that you will be rebuffed or neutralized. However, since Brad is barely paying attention to his obligations here, it's a real possibility for success. I just hope that other JFB players out there don't read too much into prospective successes that you may have here, as I feel they would be-sorry for the term-tainted by the aura of indifference that Q-ball has applied to the game at this point.

Still, there will be action aplenty when this goes off, so I'm staying tuned.

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Post #: 1694
RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/13/2011 11:21:31 PM   
Canoerebel


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11/28/42

Chickenboy: I hear you. Believe me, I hear you. Sumatra will be tough for many reasons, as we discussed previously at some length perhaps six months ago game time. I also agree Brad might not be giving this the attention it deserves, though that might change at any moment, or he may be fooling me. I'm continuing to prepare to be prepared to strike, if that makes sense. I want to be ready to go if I think the opportunity is there. But whether or not it will be there, and when, is still up for debate.

Wake Island: BB Ise paid a visit, doing some damage, mainly to my Marine regiment. My CD and Combat Engineers are in good shape, with a combined AV of about 70, so they'll try a deliberate attack tomorrow. A lone Allied xAK is about two days out on a suicide run. I'm still trying to draw that inside straight, though the odds are very, very, very long now.

Oz: Allied units are busy as bees in an around Daly Waters as I try to configure some things while Brad seems to be snoozing. The Allied carriers are a day or two out of Hobart for refueling. From there they go west, probably stopping momentarily at Albany, before providing cover for the "snap" invasion of Exmouth.

India: The Allies take an almost-vacant Akyab. Recon didn't show anything there, but there was a very small remnant unit that gave way under an assault by Chindits. The last Allied base in the southern part of India will fall to para assault tomorrow. That leaves just Calcutta and a few other bases on the mainland. Recon of Male Island will begin in a day or two. I expect to find it vacant; if not, that will be a targte of invasion within two weeks.

Points: The Allied recapture of so many bases in India, especially Madras, has dropped the IJ score from 34k to 33k. The Allies have 12k. The japanese will lsoe another 2.5k in India within weeks - mainly at Calcutta, Colombo, and Trincomalee. So the score will be something like 31k to perhaps 13k before the end of the year (barring a big naval battle swinging things wildly). What an immense difference 2.5 months has made in this game. If you don't believe me, check out where the Japanese were in early September in this AAR.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 2/13/2011 11:23:47 PM >

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Post #: 1695
RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/14/2011 3:22:19 PM   
Canoerebel


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11/29/42

Wake Island: The blockade-running xAK arrived at Wake, found three enemy CMs, and hightailed it without dropping supply. The attack by the combat engineers and CD force came in at 1:2 and failed to touch the forts. I think that was the last chance at drawing an inside straight.

NoPac: Onnekotan Jima's airfield just went to level five. Plenty of the Kuriles are garrisoned. Paramushiro has 10k troops. Brad is adding to his Shikuka and Toyohara garrisons a tad bit. [All this courtesy of recent SigInt.] Brad may not be convinced that the Allies are coming for the Kuriles, but he's certainly built up his defenses substantially. He's worried, so I should be able to "tickle" his worries by creating a feint up here in 1943 when the time is right.

Oz: Wow, RO-62 stumbled across the Allied carrier armada just east of Hobart, but as best I can tell Brad only got glimpses of a combat TF he has seen in this region before plus CA Hawkins and a few RN DDs. He might wonder if the RN ships are escorting a carrier, but he won't know for sure. RO-62 was heavily damaged. Up at Daly Waters, the Allies are dancing around, trying to get units in place to claim as many hexsides as possible, meaning Brad's units will only have poor routes of retreat (or that he'll be forced to evacuate by air). I have about 350 AV in and around Daly at the moment. Brad has three units there, though I don't know how strong. I have another 300 AV on the way, set to arrive in about two weeks. If things remain quiet, I may slip part of this army through Daly and move on Katherine, eventually probing both cities simultaneously.

Assam: What the heck? The Allies take a nearly vacant Akyab one day by small air drop; the next day, Brad invades! I don't know what's going on here, but not only did his troops invade...they shock attacked! His troops were badly disrupted and very weak, but just strong enough to boot the paratroopers. So Akyab has changed hands twice in two days....

India: Marine paratroops march overland and take the vacant Donumballa (spelling?), the centrat city in Ceylon. Cochilla, the last IJ base in the southern part of India, fell to another Marine contingent. Up north an Allied army of about 1600 AV has begun preparations for the river crossing attack of Columbo, which is defended by just three units of unknown strenth (very unlikely Brad would leave behind strong units to get roughed up, I'm thinking).

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 2/14/2011 3:41:41 PM >

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Post #: 1696
RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/14/2011 4:37:46 PM   
crsutton


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

11/28/42

Chickenboy: I hear you. Believe me, I hear you. Sumatra will be tough for many reasons, as we discussed previously at some length perhaps six months ago game time. I also agree Brad might not be giving this the attention it deserves, though that might change at any moment, or he may be fooling me. I'm continuing to prepare to be prepared to strike, if that makes sense. I want to be ready to go if I think the opportunity is there. But whether or not it will be there, and when, is still up for debate.

Wake Island: BB Ise paid a visit, doing some damage, mainly to my Marine regiment. My CD and Combat Engineers are in good shape, with a combined AV of about 70, so they'll try a deliberate attack tomorrow. A lone Allied xAK is about two days out on a suicide run. I'm still trying to draw that inside straight, though the odds are very, very, very long now.

Oz: Allied units are busy as bees in an around Daly Waters as I try to configure some things while Brad seems to be snoozing. The Allied carriers are a day or two out of Hobart for refueling. From there they go west, probably stopping momentarily at Albany, before providing cover for the "snap" invasion of Exmouth.

India: The Allies take an almost-vacant Akyab. Recon didn't show anything there, but there was a very small remnant unit that gave way under an assault by Chindits. The last Allied base in the southern part of India will fall to para assault tomorrow. That leaves just Calcutta and a few other bases on the mainland. Recon of Male Island will begin in a day or two. I expect to find it vacant; if not, that will be a targte of invasion within two weeks.

Points: The Allied recapture of so many bases in India, especially Madras, has dropped the IJ score from 34k to 33k. The Allies have 12k. The japanese will lsoe another 2.5k in India within weeks - mainly at Calcutta, Colombo, and Trincomalee. So the score will be something like 31k to perhaps 13k before the end of the year (barring a big naval battle swinging things wildly). What an immense difference 2.5 months has made in this game. If you don't believe me, check out where the Japanese were in early September in this AAR.



It does not matter where. Sooner or later you have to stick your foot into the tar baby. Wherever you attack in early to mid 43 is going to draw a hornets nest of response. You gotta do it somewhere just to draw the Japanese player into an attritional campaign. However, it has to be a place where you can support it with land bases. The Japanese fleet is just too strong until you get your flood of new carriers around 7/43. Sumatra proper is risky as there is no nearby land bases to support your beacheads. A major defeat of you fleet (even trading ships) will act to cut you off from supply. The only viable choices that I see are the most obvious, north from Darwin, the Solomon's chain or perhaps an advance in the North Pacific.

I suppose it depends on how well your opponent manages production but I am amazed at the strenght of the Japanese air force in 9/43 in my game.

_____________________________

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Post #: 1697
RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/14/2011 5:50:54 PM   
Canoerebel


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crsutton, that's good advice. Based upon my experience with Miller in my previous game, and from what I've seen in this game thus far, everything you said makes sense. A few observations:

1. In my game with Miller, the Japanese airforce never weakened. I had assumed that was due to my failure to train pilots. I might have been right, but I haven't gone far enough into this game to measure relative airforce strength between the two sides. But I'm worried.

2. You're exactly right about the need to "get underway" in 1943, if for no other reason to begin to attrit the Japanese navy.

3. I need to step back and look at Sumatra as objectively as possible. Prior to doing so, my thinking is that it might be possible to achieve a big victory there if: (1) the Allies achieve strategic surprise; (2) land a massive number of strong infantry divisions that are able to take a number of supporting bases [most important are Benkoelen, Lahat (just inland), and Padang); (3) take a bunch of islands just offshore to build up supporting airbases; and (4) make simultaenous (or nearly so) landings in the Nicobars and Andamans to ensure that the Allies will have air bases and ports in supporting distance.

The first LST just arrived at Portland. One of the considerations is having enough shipping to do all the simultaneous (or nearly simultaneous) work I need done when the big move happens. I'm just beginning that particular evaluation.

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Post #: 1698
RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/14/2011 5:53:39 PM   
anarchyintheuk

 

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You're not far away from the 3/43 apa conversion date.

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Post #: 1699
RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/14/2011 6:36:31 PM   
Canoerebel


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anarchy, thanks for the reminder. Unbelievably, I had forgotten all about that. I need to take a census of my transports to see which are eligible for worthwhile upgrades. If a bunch a set to convert in March, then I would certainly await their availability before invading.

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RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/14/2011 10:08:07 PM   
crsutton


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quote:

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

You're not far away from the 3/43 apa conversion date.

Well, you will then have about 20 in 3/43, but no AKAs yet and never enough LSTs. About enough to transport a division and a half. Everything else will have to go on XAPs. The key to an operation like this is that you have to get your troops and supplies ashore fast, then take a key base or two before he can react with KB and LBA. Remember we are talking about a pretty intact IJN here. Scen 2 allows for a lot of conversions and earlier arrivals. I had a carrier fight in 3/43 and was dealing with a lot of CVLs and CVEs that I did not expect to see.

In addition we had a couple of big, inconclusive carrier fights and even though neither of us lost a big carrier, my carrier operations were over for three months as I was totally out of fighters and SBDs. At 20 per month the SBDs do not come back very fast and I could not offer any offensive threat until the SBD5 came on line in mid 43. It really is his last best chance to knock the Allies back. I am trying to think like he should, so a lot of this is spectulation. However, if he brings everybody to the party, the Allied fleet is going to have a serious fight, and the Sumatra operation will require a lot of fleet and carrier support.

7/43 might be a better time for a big operation as you will have the sealift for about three divisions then and can expect some carriers to arrive soon to replace any losses. By 9/43, baring serious losses, the Allies have plenty of quality invasion worthy ships.

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RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/14/2011 11:00:26 PM   
Canoerebel


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crsutton states his case persuasively....

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RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/15/2011 12:28:39 AM   
whippleofd

 

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quote:

crsutton states his case persuasively....


OTOH: Operation Citadel and the Panther.

Whipple

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RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/15/2011 12:38:35 AM   
Canoerebel


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Oh, I haven't changed my mind. I was just complimenting crsutton on making his case very well. He raises additional points that I need to consider most carefully when I engage in my self-evaluation of my Sumatra plan.

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Post #: 1704
RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/15/2011 12:43:55 AM   
vettim89


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

crsutton states his case persuasively....


I know I am repeating myself but you are locked into WiTp thinking about what the Allies are capable of at this point in the war. Unless you find a way to seriously attrit the Japanese forces between now and then, you are playing into Brad's hands by acting too boldly too soon. I think if you make a more serious move into the New Hebrides you will both create that opportunity to attrit the Japanese and pin down his resources.

If I may point out: with the IJA's withdraw from India, the attractiveness of the Sumatra op has decreased considerably.

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RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/15/2011 12:49:47 AM   
Canoerebel


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Tim, thanks for your thoughts.

Man, I was TOTALLY locked into WitP mode in my first game of AE with Miller. I was caught totally offguard by the differences between Scenario Two AE and WitP.

I may still be laboring under those misunderstanding to some extent, but not as much as you might think. Sumatra has been my objective since December 7, 1941. I've spent the entire game planning this operation because it parks the Allies right in Japan's vitals. So India didn't factor into the equation one way or the other, though it would have been cool if I could have expedited Sumatra to effectively isolate the Japanese army in India. But opportunity and ability did not coincicde - invading Sumatra in 1942 would, in my opinion, be pure suiciidal folly against Q-Ball.

I will probably invade Noumea within a month, though I'm still evaluating everything. I don't think Brad is willing to stick his neck out so far to defend the base, but I'm not certain. I think Brad wants the Allies to throw everything into the long, step-by-step campaign needed to take Noumea then Luganville then Lunga etc. That's as far from his heartland as I can possibly be. I think he's far more interested in protecting the DEI and New Guinea.

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RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/15/2011 1:06:06 AM   
vettim89


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AT the least you need to "demonstrate" in force on the right side of the map. Just commit enough to make Brad think that's where you are moving. With his Indian adventure, you have to figure his force struture is unblanced toward the left side of the map especially with his Av Support and engineers. You need to tilt the table back to the right as much as possible to give the Sumatran op its best chance.

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Post #: 1707
RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/15/2011 1:09:34 AM   
Canoerebel


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Exactly! First, through SigInt I am monitoring his reshuffling as carefully as possible. Second, all Allied activity is (and has been) designed to give the appearance of a mounting threat in NoPac, CenPac (Wake), SoPac (Noumea) and SWPac (Horn Island and NW Oz).

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Post #: 1708
RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/16/2011 2:56:39 AM   
Cribtop


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CR,

FYI I tried to respond to your PM but your box was full. No worries and good luck!

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RE: Bid Thee Return - 2/16/2011 3:51:14 AM   
Canoerebel


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Thanks for the heads-up, Cribtop. I've cleared some space.

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Post #: 1710
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