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North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/30/2010 3:14:09 PM   
hellfirejet


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North Korea v South Korea: Fools rush in
Sun May 30 08:00AM .
Both North and South Korea have begun preparations for war in a week where relations between the two countries broke down to the worst they have been since the Korean War of 1950-53.

The latest confrontation came about when a South Korean navy ship was sunk by a torpedo on 26th March, killing 46 South Korean sailors.

North Korea is denying all responsibility for the sinking of the ship but the evidence is mounting to the contrary. A fleet of North Korean submarines left its port 2-3 days before the attack took place and investigators from five countries concluded that it was a North Korean torpedo that sank the warship.

In response, the South announced a series of reprisals including a trade cut-off and is seeking United Nations Security censure of the North, but for that to happen it needs to convince veto-wielding member China, an ally of North Korea, that the North was indeed responsible for the sinking of the ship.

Russia, which fought alongside the North during the Korean War, is demanding to see proof that it was responsible before it takes any action, a sensible approach all things considered. After all, what did we learn from the Iraq War? If you're planning to go in, make sure you can justify it. Seven years on we're still waiting for those weapons of mass destruction to turn up.

North Korea is hardly helping its own cause, mind, assuming peace is the country's preferential outcome. It this week threatened ‘all-out war' against the South if it breaches established water territories.

Something doesn't quite sit right about this to me. If North Korea wanted to secretly attack South Korea, why would it use torpedoes which could easily be identified as its own? And if it did in fact launch the torpedo, why would it bother denying it? North Korea, as we've seen in the past week, is not the most timid of countries, so it strikes me as strange that the latter could be the case.

The next week will be vital to the future of the Koreas, where China and Russia hold the key to the outcome. If China and Russia back North Korea as they have done in the past, it will give the North the confidence to take on the South and the United States, as it did in the Korean War. If China and/or Russia don't back North Korea (they are unlikely to back the South, but could remain impartial) then the North surely must desist with its aggressive stance or risk being wiped out.



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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/30/2010 4:44:15 PM   
Jeffrey H.


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Why would the South destroy their own ship ? Even if they could make it look like a deliberate NK provocation ? SK has nothing to gain and everthing to lose from a war.

The North however gains from just about every angle since they have very little to lose.

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/30/2010 6:14:17 PM   
Bamilus


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Nothing will happen. It is just something for the media to chew on.

I'm not downplaying the tension between the two countries or the extremity of the situation, but I believe it will take a lot more than the sinking of one ship for a resumption of hostilities.


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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/30/2010 7:53:09 PM   
V22 Osprey


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A second Korean War means we are all doomed.

North Korea attacks South Korea
United States Helps South Korea
Full blown War
North Korea launches a nuke at South Korea
United states launches nuke at North Korea
China Joins War on side of North Korea
Soon everyone is throwing nukes around
World War III begins and is over leaving us all dead.


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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/30/2010 9:40:52 PM   
wworld7


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quote:

ORIGINAL: V22 Osprey

A second Korean War means we are all doomed.

North Korea attacks South Korea
United States Helps South Korea
Full blown War
North Korea launches a nuke at South Korea
United states launches nuke at North Korea
China Joins War on side of North Korea
Soon everyone is throwing nukes around
World War III begins and is over leaving us all dead.



At one time this may have been a viable scenario, luckily the current political situation between the USA and China is such that a better result for the world could be expected.

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Flipper

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/30/2010 10:28:12 PM   
JamesM

 

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If war does break (which I hope does not happen), imagine the effect on the already shaky world economy.  Imagine what it could do the trade to China and the surrounding areas.  It could make the recent financial meltdown look like a minor blip.   That could be the saving grace in this situation, China might be extremely fearful of what war between the Koreas would do to its economy and subsequent internal political stability.

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/30/2010 10:29:41 PM   
ilovestrategy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: V22 Osprey

A second Korean War means we are all doomed.

North Korea attacks South Korea
United States Helps South Korea
Full blown War
North Korea launches a nuke at South Korea
United states launches nuke at North Korea
China Joins War on side of North Korea
Soon everyone is throwing nukes around
World War III begins and is over leaving us all dead.



No. No. No. I just downloaded the Elder Scrolls IV Oblivion on my laptop from Steam. My gaming experience comes before any real life wars. Both Koreas, The U.S., and China will have to wait.

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/30/2010 10:30:23 PM   
Obsolete


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quote:

Russia, which fought alongside the North during the Korean War, is demanding to see proof that it was responsible before it takes any action, a sensible approach all things considered.


This is not quite correct.  Russia came very, very close from a full scale war vs the Allies during that scenario, but it only came just that close.  It is true that she did send hardware, and snuck in a few aces, teachers, and supplies.  Had Russia entered the war officially, I think it's safe to conclude the same thing would have happened to the South as happened to France, Poland, and Germany by Russian history.



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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/30/2010 10:34:30 PM   
doomtrader


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Does anybody really believes that China or Russia will stand with North Korea?

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/30/2010 10:35:28 PM   
Rotherman

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: V22 Osprey

A second Korean War means we are all doomed.

North Korea attacks South Korea
United States Helps South Korea
Full blown War
North Korea launches a nuke at South Korea
United states launches nuke at North Korea
China Joins War on side of North Korea
Soon everyone is throwing nukes around
World War III begins and is over leaving us all dead.


I hope not. I was going to claim Political Asylum in North Korea when things get too bad in Britain. Hail the Great Leader.

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/30/2010 11:00:37 PM   
sabre1


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We will do whatever China wants us to. They hold all of our debt.

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/30/2010 11:26:09 PM   
Phatguy

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: V22 Osprey

A second Korean War means we are all doomed.

North Korea attacks South Korea
United States Helps South Korea
Full blown War
North Korea launches a nuke at South Korea
United states launches nuke at North Korea
China Joins War on side of North Korea
Soon everyone is throwing nukes around
World War III begins and is over leaving us all dead.



China goes belly up in this scenario ...financially..They have too much invested in the USA.

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/31/2010 2:59:29 AM   
wworld7


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quote:

ORIGINAL: doomtrader

Does anybody really believes that China or Russia will stand with North Korea?


Not really, it would require a coup in either Russia or China to have even the slightest chance. And that isn't likely to succeed. In the 1950's supporting North Korea provided a benefit to Russia and China, they have nothing to gain now.


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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/31/2010 3:24:28 AM   
Bamilus


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China already is distancing themselves from North Korea and said they would not back them in this matter. As previous posters have said, the PRC is not a new country anymore. It can't afford to take lots of risks and is now starting to become apart of the global economy more and more each day. They will still be buddies with NK but it won't be a blank check.

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/31/2010 3:43:00 AM   
n01487477


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I live in Busan, Sth Korea and while the tensions seem to be rising, nobody on the street seems particularly concerned. (As was the case during the Nuclear incident last year). South Koreans generally do not want a war (except maybe the hardliners), they have too much to lose and nothing to gain.

Some people think this incident is payback from the Nth Korean ship which was almost sunk a few months ago in a 1:1 naval incident. Embarrassing the Nth.

I won't say my view, but I think there is much more to the story than we're privvy to.

I was reading this a few days ago ... not sure on the source or who this guy is, but it was an interesting reverse view of the military capability of the North (and I certainly don't endorse his views - but it's interesting cause we always hear how the Sth will annihilate the Nth in a few hours)
http://www.rense.com/general37/nkorr.htm

< Message edited by n01487477 -- 5/31/2010 3:52:41 AM >


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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/31/2010 4:54:00 AM   
Capt. Harlock


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quote:

Russia, which fought alongside the North during the Korean War, is demanding to see proof that it was responsible before it takes any action, a sensible approach all things considered.


It *was* a sensible approach, but now it's just weaseling. The evidence is available at:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/20_05_10jigreport.pdf

North Korea is still in the 20th Century. They were not aware that so much evidence could be recovered.

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/31/2010 5:25:07 AM   
Terminus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: sabre1

We will do whatever China wants us to. They hold all of our debt.


No they don't. They hold about 10% of it.

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/31/2010 5:25:58 AM   
Terminus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: flipperwasirish


quote:

ORIGINAL: V22 Osprey

A second Korean War means we are all doomed.

North Korea attacks South Korea
United States Helps South Korea
Full blown War
North Korea launches a nuke at South Korea
United states launches nuke at North Korea
China Joins War on side of North Korea
Soon everyone is throwing nukes around
World War III begins and is over leaving us all dead.



At one time this may have been a viable scenario, luckily the current political situation between the USA and China is such that a better result for the world could be expected.


The Chinese are too busy being capitalists to go to war for Kim Jong-Ils ossified freak show of a regime...

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/31/2010 10:47:28 AM   
MajFrankBurns

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: flipperwasirish


quote:

ORIGINAL: V22 Osprey

A second Korean War means we are all doomed.

North Korea attacks South Korea
United States Helps South Korea
Full blown War
North Korea launches a nuke at South Korea
United states launches nuke at North Korea
China Joins War on side of North Korea
Soon everyone is throwing nukes around
World War III begins and is over leaving us all dead.



At one time this may have been a viable scenario, luckily the current political situation between the USA and China is such that a better result for the world could be expected.


Yeah that was the sentiment of Japan just before they attacked Pearl Harbor.

It is my belief that the matter has been compromised so the US can go into N. Korea and get rid of those nukes or the possibility of them. I'm sorry but if you've ever played wargames where diplomacy is involved you know there is lying and propoganda and backstabbing going on.

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/31/2010 1:32:28 PM   
Raverdave


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A lot of mis-understood a pipe-dream thoughts in that article.

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/31/2010 2:40:08 PM   
Prince of Eckmühl


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The PRC can stop this nonsense from North Korea any time that they want to. If they don't, it's because they want the USA out of East Asia and the Western Pacific. South Korea, faced with the possibility of a nuke strike on Seoul, can no longer count on the U.S. nuclear arsenal to guarantee its safety. The government in Seoul will have to move into the Chinese sphere of influence if they want to be safe from Pyongyang. Hong Kong has already been subjugated. After Korea is "unified" under a pro-Communist government, Taiwan will likely be next, and then Japan. 

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/31/2010 3:22:06 PM   
Terminus


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Where is that "nuke strike" going to come from? The North has one or more bombs, true, but that's not the same as having a strike capability.

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/31/2010 3:26:30 PM   
Prince of Eckmühl


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Terminus

Where is that "nuke strike" going to come from? The North has one or more bombs, true, but that's not the same as having a strike capability.


It's an awfully short drive to Seoul, by sea, air or tunnel.

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/31/2010 3:43:10 PM   
mllange

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Terminus


quote:

ORIGINAL: sabre1

We will do whatever China wants us to. They hold all of our debt.


No they don't. They hold about 10% of it.



Where do you get your numbers? China held approximately 10% of our debt in 2007; today is a very different reality. Consider that the United States added over 1.5 Trillion Dollars to its deficit in the first 5 months of 2010, with a projected annual budget of 3.6 Trillion for just 2010 alone.

Kenneth Rogoff, Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development, published an article (LINK) addressing this very subject in the Brookings Institute in 2007 for the House Committee on the Budget.

This link demonstrates how the percentage of U.S. Federal Debt held by Foreign Investors had grown from under 5% in 1970 to 29% in 2009.

According to the U.S. Treasury however, as of February 2010, the People's Republic of China alone held 23.4% of U.S. Treasury Securities. The total percentage of U.S. Treasuries held by foreign owners is now 65.8%, (again, according to the U.S. Treasury). Talk about exponential growth! Anyone who doesn't think this represents a real threat to U.S. security and economic prosperity has their head in the sand.

< Message edited by nim8or -- 5/31/2010 3:44:48 PM >


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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/31/2010 3:45:04 PM   
Terminus


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Since when is 29% the same as "all of it"?

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/31/2010 3:48:30 PM   
mllange

 

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If you consider the U.S. still needs to borrow an additional 2 Trillion in the remainder of 2010 to fund the budget, that number could approach 35-40% by 2011. Now you're talking more than peanuts. Do you think the Europeans have the resources to buy more U.S. debt with their financial problems? At what point does the U.S. become beholden to foreign debt holders?

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/31/2010 4:57:48 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Terminus

Since when is 29% the same as "all of it"?

Warspite1

nim8or never said it was....

Interesting post nim8or - thanks.

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/31/2010 5:51:58 PM   
V22 Osprey


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Terminus

Where is that "nuke strike" going to come from? The North has one or more bombs, true, but that's not the same as having a strike capability.


Like I said in my orginal post:

North Korea attacks South Korea
United States Helps South Korea
Full blown War
North Korea launches a nuke at South Korea
United states launches nuke at North Korea
China Joins War on side of North Korea
Soon everyone is throwing nukes around
World War III begins and is over leaving us all dead.

I don't know what planet your N. and S. Korea are from, but the Koreas on my planet Earth are right next to each other, with N. Korea being able to easily hit S. Korea by air, land, and sea.

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/31/2010 7:38:11 PM   
Terminus


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And on your planet, a nuclear weapon can apparently be launched by a slingshot. Read a book.

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RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? - 5/31/2010 8:58:02 PM   
wworld7


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Terminus

And on your planet, a nuclear weapon can apparently be launched by a slingshot. Read a book.


Give the kid a break.

Who knows...maybe the South Koreans never read the story about the Trojan Horse. Take twenty strong men, a large wagon, some cardboard, some spray paint and SURPRISE....a delivery system is born.

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