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Strange CAP results - 3/28/2010 10:47:32 AM   
invernomuto


Posts: 988
Joined: 10/8/2004
From: Turin, Italy
Status: offline
While I appreciate the dev's effort to eliminate the Uber CAP problem in AE,
some CAP results does not sound right to me, expecially for the japanese.
(Scenario 1, latest patch, PBEM game, I'm using the Allies)

An example:


Japanese CAP:
quote:


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Kragan at 54,103

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 47



Allied aircraft
B-17D Fortress x 3


No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-17D Fortress: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
CV Soryu



Aircraft Attacking:
2 x B-17D Fortress bombing from 10000 feet *
Naval Attack: 4 x 500 lb SAP Bomb

CAP engaged:
Tainan Ku S-1 Det B with A6M2 Zero (1 airborne, 4 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters to 14000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 24 minutes
3rd Ku S-1 Det A with A6M2 Zero (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 9000
Raid is overhead
Akagi-1 with A6M2 Zero (1 airborne, 5 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 13000 , scrambling fighters to 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 7 minutes
Soryu-1 with A6M2 Zero (1 airborne, 5 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 7000 , scrambling fighters between 7000 and 16000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 10 minutes
Shokaku-1 with A6M2 Zero (1 airborne, 4 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters to 9000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 7 minutes
Zuikaku-1 with A6M2 Zero (1 airborne, 6 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters to 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 7 minutes
Ryujo-1 with A6M2 Zero (2 airborne, 6 on standby, 0 scrambling)
2 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 11000 and 12000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 25 minutes
Shoho-1 with A6M2 Zero (1 airborne, 5 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 11000 , scrambling fighters between 3000 and 14000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 9 minutes
Hiryu-1 with A6M2 Zero (0 airborne, 3 on standby, 0 scrambling)
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters to 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 7 minutes


3 B17 against 47 zero at 10,000 feet and only one downed? I know that B17 were hard to fight for japanese plane, but in this case they were facing the entire KB and they were outnumbered by 15 to 1.

In general, to me (but it's just an impression) Allied cap seems more perfoming than Japanese one even in the early stages of the war.

< Message edited by invernomuto -- 3/28/2010 11:00:41 AM >


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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/28/2010 11:21:14 AM   
Miller


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This is par for the course against allied 4E bombers. Most Jap fighters are not heavily armed enough to bring them down. At least when they are attacked their bombing accuracy seems to go right down......

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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/28/2010 11:33:04 AM   
Sardaukar


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It is also quite historical, IJN fighters had big problems with B-17. In "Fire in the Sky", IJNAF staff officer responsible of Rabaul air operations said in after-war interrogations that they just could not find any effective solution against Allied heavy bombers. And these were just about best pilots IJNAF had, apart from carrier pilots.

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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/28/2010 12:11:14 PM   
jomni


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I've come to accept the fact that zeros cannot shoot down the B-17 that easily.
They weren't built to be bomber interceptors anyway.
Just hope that the remaining damaged B-17 don't reach home and become op losses which does happen.


< Message edited by jomni -- 3/28/2010 12:24:59 PM >


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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/28/2010 12:47:01 PM   
Sardaukar


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From: Finland/Israel
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quote:

ORIGINAL: jomni

I've come to accept the fact that zeros cannot shoot down the B-17 that easily.
They weren't built to be bomber interceptors anyway.
Just hope that the remaining damaged B-17 don't reach home and become op losses which does happen.



Indeed.

That happens quite often..and is also quite historical. Problems that Zero had against B-17 were basically 2-fold. First was inadequate firepower, since even when Zero had 20mm cannons, round velocity, ammunition and effective firing distance were quite limited. This augments the second shortcoming, which was that Zero was horribly vulnerable to B-17 defensive armament.

It is no surprise that Germans went for 4x20mm cannons or for bigger 30mm cannons against B-17. While in no way invincible, it certainly had unmatched ruggedness in WWII.


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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/28/2010 12:49:15 PM   
Sardaukar


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In addition, seems that most likely not all of those 47 Zeros managed to intercept. Combat text shows only 9 planes with message "intercepting now".

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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/28/2010 1:27:33 PM   
bklooste

 

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Youd think at least some of those high agg pilots would ram the things before they attacked the ship. They certainly dived into the water to stop torps.

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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/28/2010 5:27:08 PM   
invernomuto


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar

In addition, seems that most likely not all of those 47 Zeros managed to intercept. Combat text shows only 9 planes with message "intercepting now".


Those 9 where the the A/Cs airborne. Others scrambled and get the bombers in time before they reach the target.


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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/28/2010 7:52:01 PM   
Wittmann30


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Hmm...i don't see any of that planes scrambeling...pls check Cap enganged. Also check the time to make the Interception. I think 9 planes were in the air, some arrives not or after the raid dropped their payload...



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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/28/2010 8:32:17 PM   
freeboy

 

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regardingramming, I am in jan 44 scen 2 pbem as allies and the most effective means of taking down my b24s is ramming, most of the time I fly in and enemy gets dasables, and perhaps 6-10 times I have seen; "Pilot X gives life for the Emperor"

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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/28/2010 8:43:19 PM   
Misconduct


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Lets consider this, Each A2m Zero has 120 rounds of 20mm total, between 9 planes thats 1080 20mm rounds total, assuming accurate aiming you'd look around 450 shells actually hit, The germans averaged it needed 25 rounds of MG/151 in a vital area to bring down a B-17 or on average 75 hits per 250 rounds fired.

So assuming the germans had a hard enough time bringing them down with a Fw-190 with 4x20mm's with way more then 750rounds each aircraft, I think its pretty accurate to say those 9 Zeros give it their best shot and could of at most nailed 2 bombers with the ammo given.



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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/28/2010 10:58:07 PM   
CarnageINC


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Should be thankful that you didn't loose any fighters, you could of lost at least 3-4 easy.

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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/29/2010 12:31:44 AM   
TheElf


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another force at play here is relative force allocation. A CAP will not expend it's entire strength against a smaller force. It may. It may not. There is a line of code in there that will keep an entire Escort of 45 fighters from trying to engage one lone interceptor.

The idea that 47 Zeros would all engage 3 B-17s simultaneously is ludicrous.

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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/29/2010 7:07:28 AM   
castor troy


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From: Austria
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quote:

ORIGINAL: TheElf

another force at play here is relative force allocation. A CAP will not expend it's entire strength against a smaller force. It may. It may not. There is a line of code in there that will keep an entire Escort of 45 fighters from trying to engage one lone interceptor.

The idea that 47 Zeros would all engage 3 B-17s simultaneously is ludicrous.



interesting, thanks for the info

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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/29/2010 7:54:02 PM   
invernomuto


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From: Turin, Italy
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Hi, thanks for the infos. I have to say that I am not whining, but I'm trying to understand how the CAP in AE works. It's really different than WITP.

Here is another result for you to comment.

quote:


Morning Air attack on TF, near Kragan at 54,103

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 15



Allied aircraft
139WH-3 x 8
75A-7 Hawk x 4
B-25C Mitchell x 4


No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
139WH-3: 3 destroyed, 1 damaged
75A-7 Hawk: 1 destroyed

Japanese Ships
xAK Sugiyama Maru
xAK Oigawa Maru



Aircraft Attacking:
4 x B-25C Mitchell bombing from 10000 feet
Naval Attack: 6 x 500 lb SAP Bomb
1 x 139WH-3 bombing from 10000 feet
Naval Attack: 3 x 300 kg SAP Bomb

CAP engaged:
Tainan Ku S-1 Det B with A6M2 Zero (5 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(5 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
5 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000
Raid is overhead
4 planes vectored on to bombers
Ryujo-1 with A6M2 Zero (6 airborne, 4 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(6 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
6 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters to 11000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 26 minutes


The Zeros performed quite well against Dutch fighters, downed 3 dutch bombers and then began to battle the heavier B-25. There were 5-6 Zeros against 4 B-25. Suddenly, one after another, all the zeros left combat for "technical trouble" (engine cut, out of ammo, etc). Has anyone see anything similar? It's not the first time I see this in combat replay, it seems that the program has to end the combat replay because it was lasting too long...

Bye



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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/29/2010 8:54:09 PM   
invernomuto


Posts: 988
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From: Turin, Italy
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quote:

ORIGINAL: TheElf

another force at play here is relative force allocation. A CAP will not expend it's entire strength against a smaller force. It may. It may not. There is a line of code in there that will keep an entire Escort of 45 fighters from trying to engage one lone interceptor.

The idea that 47 Zeros would all engage 3 B-17s simultaneously is ludicrous.


Thanks for your reply, these are really useful infos.
So the 47 Zeros in CAP are not all engaged in combat.
Could you also confirm that if CAP outnumbers the escorts part of the CAP could be reserved for bombers only?
Thanks in advance!

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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/29/2010 9:18:16 PM   
AcePylut


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quote:

Weather in hex: Light rain


Not hard to imagine that 3 lonely B-17's ducked in and out of clouds over the target.

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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/29/2010 9:28:55 PM   
LoBaron


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quote:

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

quote:

Weather in hex: Light rain


Not hard to imagine that 3 lonely B-17's ducked in and out of clouds over the target.



Well put.

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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/30/2010 9:06:44 AM   
castor troy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: bklooste

Youd think at least some of those high agg pilots would ram the things before they attacked the ship. They certainly dived into the water to stop torps.




none of above was usual though and far from the norm

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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/30/2010 9:43:15 AM   
FatR

 

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In RL, these B-17s would have died horribly. Examples of low-to-medium altitude daylight unescorted 4E attacks in the Pacific aren't numerous. Because these attacks ended up like the raid on Hankow on 20 August of 1943, when 14 B-24D (unescorted because fighters failed to connect with the raid) were met by a sentai of Ki-43s, lost two planes, with ten more damaged (so that the unit as a whole was effectively disabled for weeks) and failed to inflict any damage on the enemy; or the raid on Haiphong on 15 September, when five B-24Ds (not expecting fighter opposition) were intercepted by 35 Ki-43s and only one Liberator survived, while Japanese lost just one pilot in return. Note, that these examples involve the most undergunned Japanese fighter of the war (barring those that already were phased out of the units at the war's beginning).

4E Allied bombers probably were made uber-tough in the game, because AE does not really model difficulties of high-altitude interception. Against ground targets this model works passably, because, in my experience, unescorted 4E units become disabled very fast and replacement rates are too slow to afford losing even a handful of planes per average raid. However, when 4E bomber are used on low-level (6k) haval attack, never mind when they skipbomb, they can be game-breakingly potent.

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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/30/2010 10:03:55 AM   
LoBaron


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Both in RL and in game things like a total slaughter or a mission without any casualties is thinkable (and possible)

I had a nice day agaisnt my honoured opponent Rob a few turns ago where his straggler B17/B24 ran into a full blown Zero CAP and there
probably werent many survivors. On the other hand spotting 3 lonely planes  in light rain ducking in and out of clouds as AcePylut described
it are brutally hard to spot.

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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/30/2010 12:15:26 PM   
Dili

 

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quote:

Both in RL and in game things like a total slaughter or a mission without any casualties is thinkable (and possible)


Yep for this scenario.

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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/30/2010 12:58:26 PM   
mike scholl 1

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar


That happens quite often..and is also quite historical. Problems that Zero had against B-17 were basically 2-fold. First was inadequate firepower, since even when Zero had 20mm cannons, round velocity, ammunition and effective firing distance were quite limited. This augments the second shortcoming, which was that the Zero was horribly vulnerable to B-17 defensive armament.




Often overlooked..., and very valid. In general, you had to really chew up a B-17 to have a chance to bring it down..., but a lightly built flying gas can such as most Japanese Fighters basically were was an explosion and fire just waiting to happen. That huge range and manueverability came with a pricetag.

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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/30/2010 2:13:49 PM   
Panther Bait


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There is a significant difference between B-17s and B-24s with regards to their ability to sustain damage.

The low wing design on the B-17 gave the plane part of it's legendary ability to make it back to base. You could shoot up the extremities and do lots of damage, but the basic frame of the plane was very hard to fatally damage.

The high wing on the B-24 in comparison was a weaker design, although it did leave a lot of room in the fuselage for bombs (one of the reasons for it's larger payload). The wing root was susceptible to damage which would break a wing off, with obviously fatal results.

Other than the B-24's superior range, I suspect that the relative resistance to damage was one of the reasons that B-17s were basically dedicated to Europe, where they faced a much more serious threat from enemy fighters, and the B-24s went to the Pacific.

I think it is telling that both of FatR's examples were B-24s, not B-17s. I'm not saying the B-17s would have made it through unscathed, but they probably would have done better. Especially against non-cannon-armed Ki-43s.

Mike


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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/30/2010 2:18:23 PM   
AcePylut


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Light Rain in hex

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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/30/2010 5:14:05 PM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

Light Rain in hex


Big difference.

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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/30/2010 5:54:20 PM   
AcePylut


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Most "crazy" results I see on these forums can usually be attributed to factors not being considered.

Yeah, 50 Zeros against 3 B17s sounds like good odds, but who "sees this" and thinks "nice bright shiny day, with the zero's above the B17s in perfect attack position... ok... now, roll the dice and omg why didn't I shoot them all down?"


Now picture a light rain falling (and typically, in the good ole midwest, a light rain would have a cloud deck pretty low), it's a cloudy, dreary day outside, the kind you stay in your tent and play cards.  Visibility is limited due to rain showers occuring randomly throughout the day.


Not exactly the "Bright Sky, Blazing Sun, Pearl Blue Ocean that we see on postcards" images that we (or at least, I) tend to drum up everytime I think of an atoll (for example).





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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/30/2010 6:00:22 PM   
castor troy


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Strange Cap results?


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Adak Island , at 162,52

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 27



Allied aircraft
P-400 Airacobra x 25
P-40E Warhawk x 18


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 8 destroyed




CAP engaged:
18th FG/6th FS with P-400 Airacobra (0 airborne, 6 on standby, 16 scrambling)
6 plane(s) intercepting now.
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 3 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 17000 and 25000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 21 minutes
28th CG/18th FS with P-40E Warhawk (0 airborne, 6 on standby, 0 scrambling)
6 plane(s) intercepting now.
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 3 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000 , scrambling fighters between 17000 and 19000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 4 minutes
18th FG/19th FS with P-40E Warhawk (3 airborne, 6 on standby, 0 scrambling)
9 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 15000 , scrambling fighters between 16000 and 23000.
Raid is overhead

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Adak Island , at 162,52

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 53 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 3



Allied aircraft
P-400 Airacobra x 15
P-40E Warhawk x 7


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed




CAP engaged:
18th FG/19th FS with P-40E Warhawk (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 2 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 16 minutes
18th FG/6th FS with P-400 Airacobra (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 3 being recalled, 12 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 65 minutes
28th CG/18th FS with P-40E Warhawk (3 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
3 plane(s) intercepting now.
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 1 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 63 minutes





The "dive" was exclusively on the Allied side. Sweep in my games is no factor anymore. I can lose elite P-38 at a ratio 1:8 vs Tojos on Cap that endlessly bounce the P-38 and I can do the same with P-40E (yes, the wonder weapon) and P-400 to Zeroes at a rate of 23:0 A2A. Now while I´ve got of course no exact intel on the skill of the enemy pilots, this is not an AI game and the Japanese should have ample trained pilots. My opponent Rainer79 has to chime in if we want to know the skill of the pilots. I´m the Allied player and while I guess the Japanese didn´t like the result, I didn´t like it either.

As you know the combat report greatly underrates the losses, so no, not just 9 Zeroes were shot down. Probably not 25 lost either I guess but closer to 25 than to 9 IMO. Not one Allied fighter was shot down during the replay, one fighter was a write off.

The "dive" was the factor. As mentioned often enough, in my games the highest flying fighter isn´t getting the dive automatically anymore, it´s like in WITP now, the SIDE which has the best detection level in the hex usually gets the endless dive.





Attachment (1)

< Message edited by castor troy -- 3/30/2010 6:03:05 PM >


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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/30/2010 7:09:03 PM   
AcePylut


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Not really strange at all..

You have two groups coming in at 15k feet... the P40's are capping at 23k feet.

Thunderstorms in hex both times. 

Not hard to imagine that the CAP was able to get sight of the Sweeping fighters (either because they had altitude, or were directed to a "you're right on top of them" location by ground radar), and the Zero's didn't ... then pull the a typical P40/P39 slashing tactic. The Allies could "stay hidden" in the storm clouds, being vectored to an attack position by ground, then before the Japs know it, pop out of the clouds and attack. Before the Japs reacte, the allies make us of their diving capability, and dove away.

It's said that most planes are shot down by enemies you don't see.  not hard at all, to imagine that the Allies got a great drop on the Japs, both times, when the Allies were capping their own base... and dove away before the Japs could catch up to them.


< Message edited by AcePylut -- 3/30/2010 7:10:27 PM >


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RE: Strange CAP results - 3/30/2010 8:11:33 PM   
treespider


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quote:

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

Not really strange at all..

You have two groups coming in at 15k feet... the P40's are capping at 23k feet.

Thunderstorms in hex both times. 

Not hard to imagine that the CAP was able to get sight of the Sweeping fighters (either because they had altitude, or were directed to a "you're right on top of them" location by ground radar), and the Zero's didn't ... then pull the a typical P40/P39 slashing tactic. The Allies could "stay hidden" in the storm clouds, being vectored to an attack position by ground, then before the Japs know it, pop out of the clouds and attack. Before the Japs reacte, the allies make us of their diving capability, and dove away.

It's said that most planes are shot down by enemies you don't see.  not hard at all, to imagine that the Allies got a great drop on the Japs, both times, when the Allies were capping their own base... and dove away before the Japs could catch up to them.






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