From: Sandviken, Sweden
Problem is, Manila is irrelevant for the japanese initial offensive. Davao is a nice port, weakly defended and has the right position to act as a staging base for attacks against the DEI; Clark denies a large airfield to the japanese, but again you have Davao and Cagayan which have smaller but decent airfields. The japanese will try to push you back into Bataan though, just to have a land route between North and South Luzon.
It will generally follow a historical course; large numbers of IJA ground units (Divisions and Brigades) will clear Luzon except for Bataan, and will then be earmarked for the DEI. Bataan can wait until April or even May. Doesn't matter.
Bougainville, November 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9. It rained today.
Letter from a U.S. Marine,November 1943